Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around President Trump's escalating criticism of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, particularly after the Fed decided to maintain interest rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive meeting, ignoring Trump's repeated calls for rate cuts [1][2]. - Trump accused Powell of causing significant economic losses and criticized the Fed's management, specifically referencing a $2.5 billion renovation project of the Fed's headquarters [2]. - The recent inflation data showed that the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index rose by 2.8% year-over-year, exceeding economists' expectations and indicating persistent inflation above the Fed's 2% target [2]. Group 2 - The decision to keep interest rates steady has intensified the tension between the Fed and Trump, with traders reducing the likelihood of a rate cut in September to about 40% [2]. - Powell emphasized the need for more time to assess the impact of tariffs on inflation and the economy, stating that inflation remains a concern and that necessary measures will be taken to control it [1][2]. - Powell indicated that the decision on whether to cut rates in the fall will depend on the accumulation of data leading up to the next meeting [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The HC2510 contract opened lower and moved lower on Thursday. The weekly output of hot-rolled coils stopped falling and rebounded, with a capacity utilization rate of 82.46%, at a relatively high level; the apparent demand rebounded, and the inventory increased slightly. Overall, the terminal demand for hot-rolled coils is relatively resilient, but the economic data has weakened, coupled with the slump in furnace materials, causing hot-rolled coils to fall under pressure. Technically, the 1-hour MACD indicator of the HC2510 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are adjusting downward. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract was 3,390 yuan/ton, down 93 yuan; the position volume was down 139,278 hands. The net position of the top 20 in the HC contract was - 102,930 hands, up 1,876 hands. The HC10 - 1 contract spread was - 7 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread was 185 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan. The HC main contract basis was 70 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan [2]. Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot - rolled coils in Hangzhou was 3,460 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan; in Guangzhou was 3,430 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; in Wuhan was 3,510 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; in Tianjin was 3,380 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan. The Hangzhou hot - rolled coil - rebar spread was 80 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 770 yuan/wet ton, down 16 yuan; the price of Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1,365 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan was 2,270 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei Q235 billet was 3,140 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The 45 - port iron ore inventory was 13,790.38 million tons, up 5.17 million tons; the sample coking plant coke inventory was 49.80 million tons, down 5.62 million tons; the sample steel mill coke inventory was 640.00 million tons, up 0.91 million tons; the Hebei billet inventory was 111.02 million tons, up 4.10 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.48%, unchanged; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.78%, down 0.14%. The sample steel mill hot - rolled coil output was 322.79 million tons, up 5.30 million tons; the capacity utilization rate was 82.46%, up 1.35%. The sample steel mill hot - rolled coil factory inventory was 79.30 million tons, up 1.30 million tons; the 33 - city hot - rolled coil social inventory was 268.65 million tons, up 1.49 million tons. The domestic crude steel output was 8,318 million tons, down 336 million tons; the steel net export volume was 921.00 million tons, down 89.00 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The automobile output was 279.41 million vehicles, up 14.56 million vehicles; the automobile sales volume was 290.45 million vehicles, up 21.81 million vehicles. The air - conditioner output was 2,838.31 million units, down 109.69 million units; the household refrigerator output was 904.74 million units, up 53.74 million units; the household washing machine output was 950.79 million units, up 9.59 million units [2]. Industry News - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range between 4.25% and 4.50%, in line with market expectations, which was the fifth consecutive decision to keep the interest rate unchanged. According to the data of the Passenger Car Association, from July 1st to 27th, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 1.445 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 9% compared with the same period in July last year, and a 19% decrease compared with the same period last month. The cumulative retail sales this year were 12.346 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 11% [2].

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that President Trump is scheduled to visit the Federal Reserve headquarters, which is related to the scrutiny of the ongoing renovation project at the institution [1][3] - The visit is expected to last about one hour and involves Trump and other government officials who have requested to tour the renovation site [1] - Trump's aides have been pressing for a site visit, and there was a previous scheduling conflict with a dinner meeting with senators [1] Group 2 - The renovation project at the Federal Reserve is estimated to cost $2.5 billion, funded by the Federal Reserve itself rather than taxpayers [2] - The project has become a focal point for criticism from White House officials towards Fed Chair Powell, with Trump suggesting that cost overruns could be grounds for dismissal [2] - Despite the criticism, Trump later softened his stance, indicating he does not intend to dismiss Powell before the end of his term in May [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Governor Waller indicated that a rate cut in July could provide the Federal Reserve with the flexibility to maintain interest rates unchanged in upcoming meetings [1] Group 1 - A potential rate cut in July may create room for the Federal Reserve to keep rates steady in future meetings [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The polyolefin market is in narrow - range consolidation. The spot prices of linear LL and拉丝PP from Sinopec and PetroChina remain stable. The polyolefin consumption has entered a relative off - season, and the overall spot price performance is average. The disk price fluctuates more following the cost and market sentiment. With the cooling of the Middle East conflict and the decline of international oil prices, the cost support weakens. Polyolefin is gradually digesting selling pressure through sideways consolidation. Attention should be paid to the cooling of cost - end raw materials mainly based on crude oil and the reality of the seasonal demand off - season. The effectiveness of supply contraction during the summer equipment maintenance should be focused on [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Fluctuations**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7243, 7221, and 7282 respectively, with changes of - 19, - 27, and - 2 compared to the day before, and corresponding percentage changes of - 0.26%, - 0.37%, and - 0.03%. For PP, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7042, 7032, and 7078 respectively, with changes of 1, - 9, and 4 and percentage changes of 0.01%, - 0.13%, and 0.06%. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of LL for January, May, and September contracts were 44517, 180, and 301296 respectively, and the open interests were 106805, 1584, and 448681 respectively, with changes of - 5366, 54, and 4549. For PP, the trading volumes for January, May, and September contracts were 28869, 598, and 210061 respectively, and the open interests were 107738, 3668, and 414623 respectively, with changes of - 330, 481, and 4430. - **Spreads**: The current spreads for LL (January - May, May - September, September - January) were 22, - 61, and 39 respectively, compared to previous values of 14, - 36, and 22. For PP, the current spreads were 10, - 46, and 36 respectively, compared to previous values of 0, - 33, and 33 [2]. Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder materials, and mulch film were 2400 yuan/ton, 6575 yuan/ton, 558 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6980 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively. The previous values were 2415 yuan/ton, 6610 yuan/ton, 570 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6980 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton. - **Mid - stream Spot**: For LL, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7250 - 7750 yuan/ton, 7200 - 7400 yuan/ton, and 7400 - 7600 yuan/ton respectively. For PP, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7050 - 7200 yuan/ton, 7050 - 7150 yuan/ton, and 7100 - 7250 yuan/ton respectively [2]. Market News - The strong US employment market supports the US Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged. Investors are waiting for clarification on President Trump's plan to impose tariffs on multiple countries. It is expected that OPEC and its production - cut allies will further increase crude oil production in August, and international oil prices continue to decline cautiously. On July 4, 2025 (US Independence Day), there was no settlement price for West Texas Intermediate crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange, but electronic trading was normal. The last trading price of the August 2025 futures electronic disk was 66.50 dollars per barrel, a decrease of 0.50 dollars or 0.75% from the previous trading day's settlement price, with a trading range of 66.04 - 67.18 dollars. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for September 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was 68.30 dollars per barrel, a decrease of 0.50 dollars or 0.73% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of 67.75 - 68.89 dollars [2].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates last week is supported by Collins, indicating a consensus on the current monetary policy approach [1] Group 1 - Collins expresses support for the Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates unchanged, reflecting a cautious stance in the current economic environment [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates unchanged during the June Federal Open Market Committee meeting is supported by Harker [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is focused on economic stability and is cautious about making changes to interest rates at this time [1]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain interest rates, which may impact gold prices and their future trends [1] - There is ongoing analysis regarding whether gold prices will continue to rise or reverse from their current trend [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates unchanged could influence market dynamics for gold [1] - Analysts are exploring the potential for gold prices to break out of their current stagnation [1] - The discussion includes whether the bullish trend for gold will persist or if a reversal is imminent [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton, Pulp, Sugar: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term multi/short trend in a relatively balanced state with poor market operability and a suggestion to wait and see [1] - Apple, Natural Rubber, 20 - rubber, Butadiene Rubber: ★☆☆, representing a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but limited operability on the trading floor [1] Core Views - The market has a tight inventory expectation for cotton, while the downstream demand for pure cotton yarn is insufficient. The trend of US sugar is downward, and Zheng sugar is weak. Apple demand enters the off - season, and the market focuses on the new - season yield estimate. For natural rubber, downstream demand is average, supply increases, and inventory rises, with an export performance exceeding expectations. Pulp demand is weak with relatively loose supply. Log supply has certain positive factors, but the price rebound power is insufficient [2][3][4][6][7][8] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zheng cotton maintained a narrow - range shock. Domestic cotton trading was average with a firm - to - strong basis. The positive news from Sino - US negotiations boosted prices, but details remained to be seen. Pure cotton yarn trading was light due to weak downstream demand in the off - season. As of the end of May, the commercial cotton inventory was 345.87 million tons, showing a month - on - month decrease of 69.39 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 31.54 million tons. In May, China imported 4 million tons of cotton, the lowest in the past 10 years. The operation suggestion is to wait and see or go long with a light position on dips [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. In Brazil's central - southern region, the production data in the second half of May was bearish, with an increase in cane crushing volume and sugar production year - on - year, and a continuous rise in the cane - to - sugar ratio. In June, the rainfall in the main production areas was low, which was conducive to cane harvesting. In China, Zheng sugar fluctuated weakly. In May, China imported 35 million tons of sugar, an increase of 33.31 million tons year - on - year. The import volume increased significantly due to rising import profits and the issuance of licenses. Although Guangxi's sugar production increased this year, the inventory decreased year - on - year due to a fast sales pace. The operation suggestion is to wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated weakly. The spot price remained stable. The demand entered the off - season. Although the cold - storage apple inventory was low, the increase in seasonal fruit supply and hot weather reduced apple demand, and the price increase slowed down. The sharp decline in litchi prices also affected apple demand. The market's focus shifted to the new - season yield estimate. The cold wave and strong winds during the flowering period in the western production areas might affect the fruit - setting rate and apple quality, but the impact of low - temperature in April on yield was small, mainly increasing the risk of fruit rust. The overall flower quantity in the production areas was sufficient, and the yield estimate was relatively bearish. The operation suggestion is to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, Synthetic Rubber - The Fed maintained the interest rate unchanged. RU fluctuated, NR rose slightly, and BR rose marginally. The domestic natural rubber spot price generally declined, the synthetic rubber spot price was stable with a slight increase, the overseas butadiene port price was stable, and the Thai raw material market price generally increased. The global natural rubber supply entered the growth period. The domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate continued to decline last week. In May, China's tire exports increased both year - on - year and month - on - month. The domestic all - steel tire operating rate continued to decline, while the semi - steel tire operating rate rebounded. The all - steel tire inventory continued to decline, and the semi - steel tire inventory increased. The total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao rose to 60.7 million tons, the bonded - area inventory decreased, and the general - trade inventory increased. The domestic butadiene rubber social inventory rose slightly to 1.37 million tons, and the upstream butadiene port inventory rose to 2.84 million tons. The strategy is to be bullish [6] Pulp - Pulp futures rose slightly. The spot price of Shandong Yinxing was stable at 6050 yuan/ton, Hebei Wuzhen and Buzhen were quoted at 5250 yuan/ton, and the broad - leaf pulp Star was quoted at 4100 yuan/ton. As of June 12, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 218.5 million tons, a 2.8 - million - ton increase from the previous period, a 1.3% month - on - month increase. In May, China imported 301.6 million tons of pulp, and the cumulative import volume from January to May was 1554.7 million tons, a 2.1% year - on - year increase. The domestic port inventory was high year - on - year, pulp demand was weak, and supply was relatively loose. Pulp valuation was low with strong support near the previous low. The operation suggestion is to wait and see [7] Log - The futures price fluctuated. The spot price remained stable. In June, the log quotation in New Zealand stopped falling and stabilized, and the CFR price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine increased month - on - month. After the increase in foreign quotations, the spot price bottomed out and rose, supporting the futures price. After entering the off - season, the average daily port delivery volume was about 60,000 cubic meters, showing relatively good demand. As of June 13, the total log inventory in national ports was 3.45 million cubic meters, a 60,000 - cubic - meter increase from the previous period. The radiata pine inventory was 2.72 million cubic meters, a 30,000 - cubic - meter decrease. Radiata pine continued to destock, reducing inventory pressure. Although the supply had certain positive factors, the price rebound power was insufficient due to the off - season domestic demand. The operation suggestion is to wait and see [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The lead price is expected to mainly show a fluctuating trend [4][34] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情复盘 - **期货价格**: Last week, the price of the main contract PB2507 of Shanghai lead futures fluctuated between around 16,530 yuan/ton and 16,778 yuan/ton. The LME lead futures contract price fluctuated between 1959 - 1994 US dollars/ton [8][12] 3.2现货分析 - As of June 6, 2025, the average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River non - ferrous market was 16,650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 16,525 yuan/ton, 16,585 yuan/ton, and 16,525 yuan/ton respectively. On June 6, the 1 lead premium remained at a discount of about - 190 yuan/ton [15] 3.3供需情况 - As of May 30, 2025, the average processing fees (factory prices) in Jiyuan, Chenzhou, and Gejiu were 500 yuan/metal ton, 500 yuan/metal ton, and 1,100 yuan/metal ton respectively. As of April 30, 2025, the monthly refined lead output was 664,000 tons, a decrease of 73,000 tons from the previous month and a 1% year - on - year decrease. From a seasonal perspective, the current output is at a relatively high level compared to the past 5 years [21] 3.4库存情况 - As of June 6, 2025, the Shanghai Futures Exchange refined lead inventory was 47,936 tons, an increase of 1,436 tons from the previous week. As of June 5, 2025, the LME lead inventory was 282,650 tons, an increase of 1,100 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 16.47% [27] 3.5基本面分析 - Multiple senior Fed officials indicated that inflation pressure is still higher than the risk brought by the weak employment market, suggesting that the Fed may keep interest rates unchanged for a longer time. The US economic and policy uncertainty is high, and tariff hikes bring cost and price increase pressure. The lead discount continues to widen. The lead processing fee is gradually recovering but still at a low level. Lead production has decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month, while the import volume of refined lead has increased. The Shanghai lead inventory has slightly recovered and is at a low level in recent years, while the LME lead inventory continues to rise and is at a high level in recent years [3][33] 3.6后市展望 - The lead price is expected to mainly show a fluctuating trend [4][34]