巴克莱研究指出，美联储下月的利率决议仍存在不确定性，但主席鲍威尔很可能推动FOMC作出降息决 定。根据近期的讲话，巴克莱认为理事米兰、鲍曼和沃勒可能支持降息，而地区联储主席穆萨勒姆和施 密德则倾向于维持利率不变。理事巴尔和杰斐逊，以及古尔斯比和柯林斯的最新表态显示，他们态度尚 未明确，但更倾向于维持现状。理事库克和威廉姆斯则依赖数据，但似乎更支持降息。巴克莱表 示："这意味着在考虑鲍威尔的立场之前，可能有六位投票者倾向于维持利率不变，五位倾向于降 息。"该行补充道，鲍威尔最终将主导这一决定，因为理事们要公开反对他的立场门槛很高。 ...

美元迎来9月底以来最佳单日表现，因交易员纷纷加大对美联储维持利率不变的押注。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index (DXY) has slightly declined, and upcoming employment data releases may increase short-term forex volatility, particularly before the December Federal Reserve meeting [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Analysts from Danske Bank, specifically Jesper Fjarstedt, indicate that multiple employment reports prior to the December Federal Reserve meeting could lead to significant market fluctuations [1] - If the Federal Reserve decides to maintain interest rates in December, the US dollar is expected to strengthen by the end of the year [1]

Core Viewpoint - Nomura Securities expects the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates in December, despite the impact of the U.S. government shutdown on the release of official data, recent indicators still show resilience in the labor market [1] Group 1 - Nomura Securities predicts no change in interest rates by the Federal Reserve in December [1] - The U.S. government shutdown has affected the publication of official economic data [1] - Recent economic indicators suggest that the labor market remains strong and resilient [1]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing conflict between former President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has intensified following the Fed's decision to maintain interest rates, which Trump had hoped would be lowered to stimulate the economy [3][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision - The Federal Reserve announced on July 30 that it would keep the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting where rates were held steady [3]. - The decision was made despite Trump's repeated calls for significant rate cuts to counteract inflation caused by his own tariff policies [3][4]. Group 2: Trump's Criticism - Trump publicly criticized Powell, labeling him as "too angry, too stupid, and too politicized," and suggested that he is unfit for the role of Fed Chairman [3]. - He referred to Powell as "Mr. Too Late," accusing him of being slow to act and causing the U.S. to lose trillions of dollars [3]. - Trump also condemned the renovation project of the Fed's headquarters, calling it the "most incompetent and corrupt" renovation in history [3]. Group 3: Implications for Economic Policy - The clash between Trump and Powell highlights the power struggle between the U.S. government and the Federal Reserve, raising concerns among global investors regarding the direction of U.S. economic policy [4]. - Powell has maintained the Fed's independence, emphasizing that monetary policy adjustments should be based on comprehensive economic and inflation data [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around President Trump's escalating criticism of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, particularly after the Fed decided to maintain interest rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive meeting, ignoring Trump's repeated calls for rate cuts [1][2]. - Trump accused Powell of causing significant economic losses and criticized the Fed's management, specifically referencing a $2.5 billion renovation project of the Fed's headquarters [2]. - The recent inflation data showed that the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index rose by 2.8% year-over-year, exceeding economists' expectations and indicating persistent inflation above the Fed's 2% target [2]. Group 2 - The decision to keep interest rates steady has intensified the tension between the Fed and Trump, with traders reducing the likelihood of a rate cut in September to about 40% [2]. - Powell emphasized the need for more time to assess the impact of tariffs on inflation and the economy, stating that inflation remains a concern and that necessary measures will be taken to control it [1][2]. - Powell indicated that the decision on whether to cut rates in the fall will depend on the accumulation of data leading up to the next meeting [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The HC2510 contract opened lower and moved lower on Thursday. The weekly output of hot-rolled coils stopped falling and rebounded, with a capacity utilization rate of 82.46%, at a relatively high level; the apparent demand rebounded, and the inventory increased slightly. Overall, the terminal demand for hot-rolled coils is relatively resilient, but the economic data has weakened, coupled with the slump in furnace materials, causing hot-rolled coils to fall under pressure. Technically, the 1-hour MACD indicator of the HC2510 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are adjusting downward. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract was 3,390 yuan/ton, down 93 yuan; the position volume was down 139,278 hands. The net position of the top 20 in the HC contract was - 102,930 hands, up 1,876 hands. The HC10 - 1 contract spread was - 7 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread was 185 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan. The HC main contract basis was 70 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan [2]. Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot - rolled coils in Hangzhou was 3,460 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan; in Guangzhou was 3,430 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; in Wuhan was 3,510 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; in Tianjin was 3,380 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan. The Hangzhou hot - rolled coil - rebar spread was 80 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 770 yuan/wet ton, down 16 yuan; the price of Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1,365 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan was 2,270 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei Q235 billet was 3,140 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The 45 - port iron ore inventory was 13,790.38 million tons, up 5.17 million tons; the sample coking plant coke inventory was 49.80 million tons, down 5.62 million tons; the sample steel mill coke inventory was 640.00 million tons, up 0.91 million tons; the Hebei billet inventory was 111.02 million tons, up 4.10 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.48%, unchanged; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.78%, down 0.14%. The sample steel mill hot - rolled coil output was 322.79 million tons, up 5.30 million tons; the capacity utilization rate was 82.46%, up 1.35%. The sample steel mill hot - rolled coil factory inventory was 79.30 million tons, up 1.30 million tons; the 33 - city hot - rolled coil social inventory was 268.65 million tons, up 1.49 million tons. The domestic crude steel output was 8,318 million tons, down 336 million tons; the steel net export volume was 921.00 million tons, down 89.00 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The automobile output was 279.41 million vehicles, up 14.56 million vehicles; the automobile sales volume was 290.45 million vehicles, up 21.81 million vehicles. The air - conditioner output was 2,838.31 million units, down 109.69 million units; the household refrigerator output was 904.74 million units, up 53.74 million units; the household washing machine output was 950.79 million units, up 9.59 million units [2]. Industry News - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range between 4.25% and 4.50%, in line with market expectations, which was the fifth consecutive decision to keep the interest rate unchanged. According to the data of the Passenger Car Association, from July 1st to 27th, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 1.445 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 9% compared with the same period in July last year, and a 19% decrease compared with the same period last month. The cumulative retail sales this year were 12.346 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 11% [2].

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that President Trump is scheduled to visit the Federal Reserve headquarters, which is related to the scrutiny of the ongoing renovation project at the institution [1][3] - The visit is expected to last about one hour and involves Trump and other government officials who have requested to tour the renovation site [1] - Trump's aides have been pressing for a site visit, and there was a previous scheduling conflict with a dinner meeting with senators [1] Group 2 - The renovation project at the Federal Reserve is estimated to cost $2.5 billion, funded by the Federal Reserve itself rather than taxpayers [2] - The project has become a focal point for criticism from White House officials towards Fed Chair Powell, with Trump suggesting that cost overruns could be grounds for dismissal [2] - Despite the criticism, Trump later softened his stance, indicating he does not intend to dismiss Powell before the end of his term in May [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Governor Waller indicated that a rate cut in July could provide the Federal Reserve with the flexibility to maintain interest rates unchanged in upcoming meetings [1] Group 1 - A potential rate cut in July may create room for the Federal Reserve to keep rates steady in future meetings [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The polyolefin market is in narrow - range consolidation. The spot prices of linear LL and拉丝PP from Sinopec and PetroChina remain stable. The polyolefin consumption has entered a relative off - season, and the overall spot price performance is average. The disk price fluctuates more following the cost and market sentiment. With the cooling of the Middle East conflict and the decline of international oil prices, the cost support weakens. Polyolefin is gradually digesting selling pressure through sideways consolidation. Attention should be paid to the cooling of cost - end raw materials mainly based on crude oil and the reality of the seasonal demand off - season. The effectiveness of supply contraction during the summer equipment maintenance should be focused on [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Fluctuations**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7243, 7221, and 7282 respectively, with changes of - 19, - 27, and - 2 compared to the day before, and corresponding percentage changes of - 0.26%, - 0.37%, and - 0.03%. For PP, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7042, 7032, and 7078 respectively, with changes of 1, - 9, and 4 and percentage changes of 0.01%, - 0.13%, and 0.06%. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of LL for January, May, and September contracts were 44517, 180, and 301296 respectively, and the open interests were 106805, 1584, and 448681 respectively, with changes of - 5366, 54, and 4549. For PP, the trading volumes for January, May, and September contracts were 28869, 598, and 210061 respectively, and the open interests were 107738, 3668, and 414623 respectively, with changes of - 330, 481, and 4430. - **Spreads**: The current spreads for LL (January - May, May - September, September - January) were 22, - 61, and 39 respectively, compared to previous values of 14, - 36, and 22. For PP, the current spreads were 10, - 46, and 36 respectively, compared to previous values of 0, - 33, and 33 [2]. Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder materials, and mulch film were 2400 yuan/ton, 6575 yuan/ton, 558 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6980 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively. The previous values were 2415 yuan/ton, 6610 yuan/ton, 570 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6980 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton. - **Mid - stream Spot**: For LL, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7250 - 7750 yuan/ton, 7200 - 7400 yuan/ton, and 7400 - 7600 yuan/ton respectively. For PP, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7050 - 7200 yuan/ton, 7050 - 7150 yuan/ton, and 7100 - 7250 yuan/ton respectively [2]. Market News - The strong US employment market supports the US Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged. Investors are waiting for clarification on President Trump's plan to impose tariffs on multiple countries. It is expected that OPEC and its production - cut allies will further increase crude oil production in August, and international oil prices continue to decline cautiously. On July 4, 2025 (US Independence Day), there was no settlement price for West Texas Intermediate crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange, but electronic trading was normal. The last trading price of the August 2025 futures electronic disk was 66.50 dollars per barrel, a decrease of 0.50 dollars or 0.75% from the previous trading day's settlement price, with a trading range of 66.04 - 67.18 dollars. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for September 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was 68.30 dollars per barrel, a decrease of 0.50 dollars or 0.73% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of 67.75 - 68.89 dollars [2].