Group 1 - The core view of the report indicates that the steel industry is expected to face challenges in demand due to a decline in real estate and construction activities, with a projected decrease in crude steel demand from 101,530 million tons in 2023 to 98,649 million tons in 2026, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 1.10% [44][61][71] - The report highlights that the real estate sector's steel demand is projected to drop significantly from 30,747 million tons in 2023 to 10,061 million tons in 2026, marking a substantial decrease of 67.32% [44][61][71] - Infrastructure demand is expected to remain stable, with a slight increase from 15,327 million tons in 2025 to 15,634 million tons in 2026, indicating a growth of 2.00% [44][61][71] Group 2 - The report outlines that the machinery sector's steel demand is projected to grow from 14,524 million tons in 2025 to 14,959 million tons in 2026, reflecting a growth rate of 3.00% [44][61][71] - The automotive sector is expected to see an increase in steel demand from 6,911 million tons in 2025 to 7,256 million tons in 2026, which represents a growth of 5.00% [44][61][71] - The energy sector's steel demand is projected to remain stable, with a slight decrease from 4,123 million tons in 2025 to 4,082 million tons in 2026, indicating a decline of 1.00% [44][61][71] Group 3 - The report emphasizes the importance of government policies in stimulating demand, particularly in the real estate sector, where favorable policies are expected to boost demand expectations [12] - The report notes that the steel industry is undergoing a transformation with a focus on energy efficiency and emissions reduction, as indicated by the government's plans to enhance energy efficiency standards and reduce crude steel production [59] - The report suggests that the overall steel market will experience a shift towards more sustainable practices, which may impact production levels and demand dynamics in the coming years [59]

Group 1: Renewable Energy - In the first three quarters of this year, the newly installed capacity of renewable energy reached 310 million kilowatts, representing a year-on-year growth of 47.7%, accounting for approximately 84.4% of the total new installed capacity [3] - Renewable energy generation amounted to 2.89 trillion kilowatt-hours, which is about 40% of the total electricity generation, significantly supporting the overall electricity supply [3] Group 2: Steel Industry - In the first three quarters, the total crude steel production in the country was 746 million tons, achieving the production control target [5] - The total profit of key steel enterprises reached 96 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 190%, indicating that the overall operational situation of the industry is better than expected and its risk resistance capability is continuously improving [5] Group 3: Foreign Trade - In the first three quarters, the national trade promotion system issued various certificates, including certificates of origin, with a year-on-year growth of 17.64% [7] - The number of RCEP certificates issued totaled 242,500, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 25.57%, demonstrating the strong resilience of China's foreign trade in the first three quarters [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China's steel production and apparent consumption have been declining in the first three quarters of the year, with a continued expectation of a decrease for the entire year [1] - In the first three quarters, the total crude steel production in China reached 746 million tons, representing a year-on-year decrease of 2.9% [1] - The industry is expected to meet its crude steel production control targets for the year, indicating a focus on managing output levels [1]

Core Viewpoint - In July, the domestic steel market showed an upward trend due to favorable macro policies, increased cost support, and enhanced expectations for crude steel production regulation. However, in August, the market began to return to fundamentals, with prices experiencing slight fluctuations amid weak demand and continuous inventory accumulation [1][6]. Price Index Summary - The China Steel Price Index (CSPI) averaged 92.79 points in July, an increase of 2.69 points (2.98%) month-on-month, but a decrease of 7.67 points (7.64%) year-on-year. The long product index averaged 94.82 points, up 2.90 points (3.16%) month-on-month, and the plate index averaged 91.10 points, up 2.78 points (3.14%) month-on-month [2]. - As of the end of July, the CSPI was 95.87 points, up 6.36 points (7.11%) month-on-month, but down 1.60 points (1.64%) year-to-date [2]. Price Trends of Major Steel Products - In July, the average prices of major steel products increased across the board, with hot-rolled coil prices rising by 133 CNY/ton (4.07%) and seamless pipe prices increasing by 15 CNY/ton (0.36%) [5]. Regional Price Index Analysis - In July, the average steel price index across six major regions in China showed a general upward trend, with the East China region experiencing the largest increase of 3.37% [7]. Investment and Economic Indicators - From January to July, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) totaled 288,229 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%, with infrastructure investment growing by 3.2% [8]. - The manufacturing sector faced challenges, with the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) dropping to 49.3% in July, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity [9]. Steel Production and Consumption - From January to July, crude steel production was 59,447 million tons, a decrease of 3.1% year-on-year, while apparent crude steel consumption fell by 6% [11]. - In July, the daily crude steel production was 256.9 thousand tons, down 7.4% month-on-month [11]. International Market Trends - The CRU international steel price index was 186.2 points in July, down 1.0% month-on-month and 2.1% year-on-year [13]. - The North American steel price index increased by 2.1% in July, while European and Asian markets continued to see price declines [17][19]. Future Price Trends and Policy Implications - The steel industry is expected to face challenges in exports due to ongoing trade investigations and tariffs, which may impact future pricing and demand [24]. - The industry is advised to focus on price governance mechanisms and self-regulation in production to adapt to changing market conditions [25][26].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - Steel prices are in a downward cycle with a roughly 7-year cycle, currently from 2021 - 2025. In the short term, the downside space for rebar and hot-rolled coils is limited. In the medium term, the low point of rebar and hot-rolled coils in the second half of the year is higher than that in the first half. The RB2510 contract is expected to have room for an upward movement after consolidating the bottom around 3100. The short-term range for the iron ore main contract 2601 is between 750 - 800 [4][7]. - Suggest trying to lay out long positions on the 2601 contract on dips in the medium term and setting stop-losses. Short the spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar on rallies for the 10 contract. Iron ore is suitable for short-term operations [4]. Summary According to the Table of Contents Part 1: Review - **Steel Price Trends**: Steel prices have a roughly 7-year cycle, currently in a downward phase from 2021 - 2025. In the first half of this year, steel prices fell continuously, hitting a new low in June. They rose significantly in July with a maximum increase of 16%, reaching a new high for the year, and then fell continuously in August [7][8]. - **Stainless Steel and Iron Ore Trends**: Stainless steel has been in a downward trend since 2022. Iron ore has a similar long - cycle to rebar and hot-rolled coils but with differences. It has been in a general downward trend since 2021, mainly in 2021, and has been in a wide - range oscillation between 555 - 955 from 2022 to now. Iron ore is more resistant to decline than rebar and hot-rolled coils. In the first half of the year, its lowest point was 671, not breaking last year's low of 641.5. It rose strongly in July, reaching a high of 835.5, and fluctuated between 760 - 805 in August. The main contract has been shifted to 2601 [12]. Part 2: Current Analysis - **Economic and Steel Price Relationship**: There is a high consistency between economic growth and steel prices when the investment contribution is relatively stable. The GDP growth rate in the first quarter was 5.4%, and the annual economic target is 5%. The economic growth rate in the second quarter was 5.3%, and the growth rate in the first half of the year was 5.3%, better than expected. Anti - involution may promote economic growth and boost steel prices [21]. - **Real Estate and Steel Consumption**: As the real estate industry adjusts, the steel consumption structure is changing, with the proportion of real estate steel consumption decreasing and that of manufacturing increasing. From January to July 2025, real estate indicators such as sales, investment, new construction, and construction area all showed negative growth, making the real estate industry a drag on steel consumption [24][27]. - **Infrastructure and Steel Consumption**: The scale of local government special bonds in 2025 reached 4.4 trillion yuan, a record high. Although the total infrastructure investment increased steadily in the first half of the year with a growth rate of 4.6%, the proportion of special bonds invested in traditional infrastructure may decline [30][33]. - **Manufacturing and Steel Consumption**: The growth rate of manufacturing investment has slightly declined. However, due to policies such as large - scale equipment updates and trade - in of consumer goods, the steel demand in industries such as automobiles, home appliances, energy, and machinery is increasing. The production and sales of automobiles and excavators have increased significantly, driving steel consumption [36]. - **Home Appliance and Steel Consumption**: In the first half of the year, the growth rate of most home appliances slowed down. The total production schedule of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in the second quarter increased compared with the same period last year, but the production schedule in the third quarter decreased significantly [42]. - **Steel Export**: Although the growth rate of steel exports in 2025 has declined compared with the previous two years, the absolute volume is still higher than the same period in previous years. However, due to the repeated US tariff policies and the increase in anti - dumping duties from major export countries, steel exports are facing obstacles [45]. - **Steel Production**: From January to July 2025, the national crude steel production was 594.47 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.1%; pig iron production was 505.83 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.3%. The profit of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry from January to July was 64.36 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5175.4% [46][59]. - **Iron Ore Supply**: From January to July 2024, China's iron ore imports increased by 4.9% year - on - year. From January to July 2025, the cumulative imports were 696.569 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%. As of August 29, the iron ore port inventory at 45 ports was 137 million tons, and the daily average port clearance volume was 318,000 tons. In July 2025, the domestic iron concentrate production was 23.119 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.6% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.8% [64][65]. - **Analysis Logic and Trading Opportunities**: The rebar market structure has changed from backwardation to contango, while the hot - rolled coil market remains in backwardation. Pay attention to the phased trading opportunities of the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar, and consider shorting the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar for the 10 contract. Also, consider shorting the ratio of rebar to iron ore in October and November [71][80][81].

Group 1: Sales and Production Insights - The company's steel sales volume in the first half of the year was 11.1 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 12.6% [2] - The steel sales volume, excluding direct sales of steel billets, saw a decrease of approximately 10% [2] - The company plans to adjust production rhythm based on downstream order demand and profitability, expecting annual production and sales to match [2] Group 2: Industry Trends and Policies - The steel industry is experiencing a supply-side contraction due to strict policies on crude steel capacity and self-discipline among steel enterprises [2] - Approximately 80% of the industry capacity is expected to complete ultra-low emission transformations by the end of the year [2] - The new 2025 version of the steel industry normative conditions aims to optimize supply and eliminate backward production capacity [3] Group 3: Financial Performance and Cost Management - The company's second-quarter performance improved significantly due to a notable decline in raw material prices compared to steel prices, leading to better profitability [4] - Cost management efforts have led to improved efficiency across various cost indicators, including process, procurement, and energy costs [4] - The company is focusing on high-end steel products, maintaining a stable market share and profitability in niche markets [4] Group 4: Demand and Market Conditions - The third quarter is traditionally a slow season, with a decrease in demand for thin plate products, although some segments like automotive steel show improvement [5] - The company anticipates that industry profitability may narrow in the third quarter due to rising raw material prices, particularly coking coal [5] Group 5: Project Developments and Future Outlook - The non-oriented silicon steel project is progressing well, with the first production line expected to meet demand from key clients in the automotive sector [6] - The VAMA joint venture is operating at near full capacity, with total sales around 1.6 million tons [7] - Future developments for VAMA include the introduction of advanced steel grades and the construction of a third phase project, which is currently in feasibility studies [8][9]

Group 1 - China's steel exports reached 9.836 million tons in July, a year-on-year increase of 25.7%, with cumulative exports from January to July at 67.98 million tons, up 11.4% year-on-year [1] - Asia remains the largest market for China's steel exports, with Southeast Asia showing a slower growth rate of 2.5% year-on-year in the first half of the year, primarily due to anti-dumping measures from some countries [1] - Exports to countries along the "Belt and Road" initiative have seen significant growth, with exports to Africa increasing by 33.3% and to Latin America by 21% in the first half of the year [1] Group 2 - The export structure of steel shows a divergence, with flat products accounting for 62.5% of total exports, but facing a decline due to anti-dumping taxes from countries like Vietnam and India [1] - In contrast, exports of steel billets, rebar, wire rods, and special steel bars have surged, with year-on-year increases of 300.3%, 89.2%, 47.4%, and 54.93% respectively, driven by infrastructure demand in emerging markets [1] - The overall trend indicates a "flat products under pressure, while billets, construction materials, and special steel bars expand rapidly," with expectations for this trend to continue [1] Group 3 - As of August 8, total inventory of five major steel products was 13.754 million tons, a 1.74% increase month-on-month, while production slightly increased by 0.21% and consumption decreased by 0.74% [3] - Despite a significant decline in new construction area in the real estate sector impacting steel consumption, strong resilience in steel exports is noted, alongside upcoming policies aimed at reducing crude steel production [3] - Environmental restrictions in places like Tangshan during the commemoration of the 80th anniversary of the victory in the War of Resistance against Japan will lead to production cuts, further tightening supply [2][3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On July 30, the silicon ferro - alloy 2509 contract closed at 6008, up 0.77%. The spot price of Ningxia silicon ferro - alloy was reported at 5830, up 80 yuan/ton. With low - level operation of production, falling cost of Ningxia semi - coke, and generally weak steel demand expectations, the ferro - alloy production profit is currently negative. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is above the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it should be treated as an oscillating operation [2]. - On July 30, the manganese silicon 2509 contract closed at 6116, down 0.42%. The spot price of Inner Mongolia silicon manganese was reported at 5900. Manganese - based leading enterprises held a seminar to promote energy conservation and emission reduction in the industry, and supply may decline. Fundamentally, the manufacturers' start - up rate has rebounded for 8 consecutive weeks at a low level, inventory is moderately high, and downstream hot metal production is at a high level. Market - wise, this month's steel mill procurement prices have rebounded compared to the tender prices. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is above the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it should be treated as an oscillating and slightly stronger operation [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - SM主力合约收盘价为6,116.00元/吨，环比下降96.00元；SF主力合约收盘价为6,008.00元/吨，环比下降102.00元 [2]. - SM期货合约持仓量为651,212.00手，环比下降4189.00手；SF期货合约持仓量为438,378.00手，环比增加6020.00手 [2]. - 锰硅前20名净持仓为 - 120,404.00手，环比下降3885.00手；硅铁前20名净持仓为 - 47,806.00手，环比下降6249.00手 [2]. - SM1 - 9月合约价差为92.00元/吨，环比增加18.00元；SF1 - 9月合约价差为132.00元/吨，环比增加26.00元 [2]. - SM仓单为78,736.00张，环比下降454.00张；SF仓单为22,003.00张，环比下降6.00张 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - 内蒙古锰硅FeMn68Si18价格为5,900.00元/吨，持平；内蒙古硅铁FeSi75 - B价格为5,870.00元/吨，环比上涨80.00元 [2]. - 贵州锰硅FeMn68Si18价格为5950.00元/吨，环比上涨50.00元；青海硅铁FeSi75 - B价格为5,710.00元/吨，环比上涨150.00元 [2]. - 云南锰硅FeMn68Si18价格为5,950.00元/吨，环比上涨50.00元；宁夏硅铁FeSi75 - B价格为5,830.00元/吨，环比上涨80.00元 [2]. - 锰硅指数均值为5688.00元/吨，环比上涨78.00元；SF主力合约基差为 - 178.00元/吨，环比上涨182.00元 [2]. - SM主力合约基差为 - 216.00元/吨，环比上涨96.00元 [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - 南非矿:Mn38块:天津港价格为37.00元/吨度，持平；硅石（98%西北）价格为210.00元/吨，持平 [2]. - 内蒙古乌海二级冶金焦价格为1050.00元/吨，环比上涨50.00元；兰炭（中料神木）价格为620.00元/吨，持平 [2]. - 锰矿港口库存为449.50万吨，环比增加21.00万吨 [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - 锰硅企业开工率为41.58%，环比上涨1.05个百分点；硅铁企业开工率为33.33%，环比上涨0.88个百分点 [2]. - 锰硅供应为186,480.00吨，环比增加3640.00吨；硅铁供应为102,300.00吨，环比增加2300.00吨 [2]. - 锰硅厂家库存为205,000.00吨，环比下降11300.00吨；硅铁厂家库存为6.21万吨，环比下降0.14万吨 [2]. - 锰硅全国钢厂库存为14.24天，环比下降1.25天；硅铁全国钢厂库存为14.25天，环比下降1.13天 [2]. - 五大钢种锰硅需求为123670.00吨，环比增加289.00吨；五大钢种硅铁需求为20065.70吨，环比增加52.00吨 [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - 247家钢厂高炉开工率为83.48%，持平；247家钢厂高炉产能利用率为90.78%，环比下降0.14个百分点 [2]. - 粗钢产量为8318.40万吨，环比下降336.10万吨 [2]. 3.6 Industry News - 当地时间7月28日至29日，中美经贸中方牵头人与美方牵头人在瑞典斯德哥尔摩举行会谈，双方将推动已暂停的美方对等关税24%部分以及中方反制措施如期展期90天 [2]. - IMF将2025年中国经济增速大幅上调0.8个百分点至4.8% [2]. - 中国钢铁工业协会会长表示，2025年国家将继续实施粗钢产量调控政策，下半年相关调控措施将显现，钢铁供需矛盾将缓解 [2]. - 今年夏天全球多地极端高温带动我国空调出口增长，1 - 6月我国空调累计出口额达93.5亿美元，同比增长近10%；对欧盟国家空调出口量同比增长43.2%，出口金额达37.6亿美元，创同期历史新高 [2].

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry in China has shown resilience in the first half of the year, managing to balance supply and demand despite challenges, leading to improved economic benefits and environmental standards [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Performance - In the first half of the year, key steel enterprises reported a total revenue of 29,985 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.79% [1] - Operating costs for these enterprises were 28,055 billion yuan, down 6.83% year-on-year [1] - Total profit reached 592 billion yuan, marking a significant year-on-year increase of 63.26% [1] - The average profit margin was 1.97%, up 0.83 percentage points compared to the previous year [1] - The loss ratio was 23.86%, which is a decrease of 18.19 percentage points year-on-year [1] Group 2: Industry Challenges and Strategies - The steel industry faces a primary contradiction between strong supply capabilities and weakened demand intensity [1] - The self-discipline in production control has helped maintain low inventory levels and stable steel prices, contributing to improved profitability [1] - The industry must recognize the ongoing pressures for stable operations in the second half of the year, which are often greater than in the first half [2] - There is a need for the industry to respond to government policies aimed at eliminating outdated production capacity and reducing inventory [2] - The expectation is that with continued self-discipline and effective government-market interaction, the market order will improve, leading to better supply-demand relationships and enhanced development vitality [2]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic steel market in China experienced a downward trend in June due to seasonal effects, supply-demand imbalances, and weakening cost support, but showed signs of slight recovery in July influenced by regulatory measures and production controls [1][2][10]. Price Index Summary - The China Steel Price Index (CSPI) averaged 90.10 points in June, a decrease of 2.26 points (2.45%) month-on-month and a decline of 14.14 points (13.56%) year-on-year [2][7]. - The long product index averaged 91.91 points, down 2.41 points (2.55%) month-on-month, and the plate index averaged 88.32 points, down 2.28 points (2.51%) month-on-month [2][4]. - By the end of June, the CSPI stood at 89.51 points, marking a 1.29 point (1.42%) decrease from the previous month and a 13.45 point (13.06%) decline year-on-year [2][7]. Price Changes by Product - In June, the average prices of major steel products fell across the board, with cold-rolled sheets seeing the largest drop of 152 yuan/ton (3.88%) [8]. - The long product index was 91.27 points, down 1.03 points (1.12%) month-on-month, while the plate index was 87.76 points, down 1.43 points (1.60%) [4][8]. Regional Price Trends - In June, the CSPI showed a general downward trend across six major regions in China, with the largest decline in North China at 2.77% and the smallest in Southwest China at 1.72% [12][13]. Factors Influencing Price Changes - Fixed asset investment in China decreased, with infrastructure investment growing by 4.6% and manufacturing investment by 7.5%, both showing a decline in growth rates [15][16]. - The crude steel production in the first half of 2025 was 51.483 million tons, down 3.0% year-on-year, while steel consumption fell by 5.5% [17][18]. International Market Trends - The CRU international steel price index was 188.1 points in June, down 7.0 points (3.6%) month-on-month and 9.4 points (4.8%) year-on-year [20][23]. - The North American steel price index decreased by 4.0%, while the European index fell by 4.5% in June [27][30]. Future Outlook - The steel market is expected to face challenges due to a complex international environment and potential trade tensions, which may impact export strategies [36][38]. - The industry should focus on production adjustments in response to demand fluctuations and adhere to national crude steel production control policies [39][32].