Core Viewpoint - In July, the domestic steel market showed an upward trend due to favorable macro policies, increased cost support, and enhanced expectations for crude steel production regulation. However, in August, the market began to return to fundamentals, with prices experiencing slight fluctuations amid weak demand and continuous inventory accumulation [1][6]. Price Index Summary - The China Steel Price Index (CSPI) averaged 92.79 points in July, an increase of 2.69 points (2.98%) month-on-month, but a decrease of 7.67 points (7.64%) year-on-year. The long product index averaged 94.82 points, up 2.90 points (3.16%) month-on-month, and the plate index averaged 91.10 points, up 2.78 points (3.14%) month-on-month [2]. - As of the end of July, the CSPI was 95.87 points, up 6.36 points (7.11%) month-on-month, but down 1.60 points (1.64%) year-to-date [2]. Price Trends of Major Steel Products - In July, the average prices of major steel products increased across the board, with hot-rolled coil prices rising by 133 CNY/ton (4.07%) and seamless pipe prices increasing by 15 CNY/ton (0.36%) [5]. Regional Price Index Analysis - In July, the average steel price index across six major regions in China showed a general upward trend, with the East China region experiencing the largest increase of 3.37% [7]. Investment and Economic Indicators - From January to July, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) totaled 288,229 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%, with infrastructure investment growing by 3.2% [8]. - The manufacturing sector faced challenges, with the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) dropping to 49.3% in July, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity [9]. Steel Production and Consumption - From January to July, crude steel production was 59,447 million tons, a decrease of 3.1% year-on-year, while apparent crude steel consumption fell by 6% [11]. - In July, the daily crude steel production was 256.9 thousand tons, down 7.4% month-on-month [11]. International Market Trends - The CRU international steel price index was 186.2 points in July, down 1.0% month-on-month and 2.1% year-on-year [13]. - The North American steel price index increased by 2.1% in July, while European and Asian markets continued to see price declines [17][19]. Future Price Trends and Policy Implications - The steel industry is expected to face challenges in exports due to ongoing trade investigations and tariffs, which may impact future pricing and demand [24]. - The industry is advised to focus on price governance mechanisms and self-regulation in production to adapt to changing market conditions [25][26].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - Steel prices are in a downward cycle with a roughly 7-year cycle, currently from 2021 - 2025. In the short term, the downside space for rebar and hot-rolled coils is limited. In the medium term, the low point of rebar and hot-rolled coils in the second half of the year is higher than that in the first half. The RB2510 contract is expected to have room for an upward movement after consolidating the bottom around 3100. The short-term range for the iron ore main contract 2601 is between 750 - 800 [4][7]. - Suggest trying to lay out long positions on the 2601 contract on dips in the medium term and setting stop-losses. Short the spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar on rallies for the 10 contract. Iron ore is suitable for short-term operations [4]. Summary According to the Table of Contents Part 1: Review - **Steel Price Trends**: Steel prices have a roughly 7-year cycle, currently in a downward phase from 2021 - 2025. In the first half of this year, steel prices fell continuously, hitting a new low in June. They rose significantly in July with a maximum increase of 16%, reaching a new high for the year, and then fell continuously in August [7][8]. - **Stainless Steel and Iron Ore Trends**: Stainless steel has been in a downward trend since 2022. Iron ore has a similar long - cycle to rebar and hot-rolled coils but with differences. It has been in a general downward trend since 2021, mainly in 2021, and has been in a wide - range oscillation between 555 - 955 from 2022 to now. Iron ore is more resistant to decline than rebar and hot-rolled coils. In the first half of the year, its lowest point was 671, not breaking last year's low of 641.5. It rose strongly in July, reaching a high of 835.5, and fluctuated between 760 - 805 in August. The main contract has been shifted to 2601 [12]. Part 2: Current Analysis - **Economic and Steel Price Relationship**: There is a high consistency between economic growth and steel prices when the investment contribution is relatively stable. The GDP growth rate in the first quarter was 5.4%, and the annual economic target is 5%. The economic growth rate in the second quarter was 5.3%, and the growth rate in the first half of the year was 5.3%, better than expected. Anti - involution may promote economic growth and boost steel prices [21]. - **Real Estate and Steel Consumption**: As the real estate industry adjusts, the steel consumption structure is changing, with the proportion of real estate steel consumption decreasing and that of manufacturing increasing. From January to July 2025, real estate indicators such as sales, investment, new construction, and construction area all showed negative growth, making the real estate industry a drag on steel consumption [24][27]. - **Infrastructure and Steel Consumption**: The scale of local government special bonds in 2025 reached 4.4 trillion yuan, a record high. Although the total infrastructure investment increased steadily in the first half of the year with a growth rate of 4.6%, the proportion of special bonds invested in traditional infrastructure may decline [30][33]. - **Manufacturing and Steel Consumption**: The growth rate of manufacturing investment has slightly declined. However, due to policies such as large - scale equipment updates and trade - in of consumer goods, the steel demand in industries such as automobiles, home appliances, energy, and machinery is increasing. The production and sales of automobiles and excavators have increased significantly, driving steel consumption [36]. - **Home Appliance and Steel Consumption**: In the first half of the year, the growth rate of most home appliances slowed down. The total production schedule of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in the second quarter increased compared with the same period last year, but the production schedule in the third quarter decreased significantly [42]. - **Steel Export**: Although the growth rate of steel exports in 2025 has declined compared with the previous two years, the absolute volume is still higher than the same period in previous years. However, due to the repeated US tariff policies and the increase in anti - dumping duties from major export countries, steel exports are facing obstacles [45]. - **Steel Production**: From January to July 2025, the national crude steel production was 594.47 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.1%; pig iron production was 505.83 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.3%. The profit of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry from January to July was 64.36 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5175.4% [46][59]. - **Iron Ore Supply**: From January to July 2024, China's iron ore imports increased by 4.9% year - on - year. From January to July 2025, the cumulative imports were 696.569 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%. As of August 29, the iron ore port inventory at 45 ports was 137 million tons, and the daily average port clearance volume was 318,000 tons. In July 2025, the domestic iron concentrate production was 23.119 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.6% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.8% [64][65]. - **Analysis Logic and Trading Opportunities**: The rebar market structure has changed from backwardation to contango, while the hot - rolled coil market remains in backwardation. Pay attention to the phased trading opportunities of the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar, and consider shorting the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar for the 10 contract. Also, consider shorting the ratio of rebar to iron ore in October and November [71][80][81].

Group 1: Sales and Production Insights - The company's steel sales volume in the first half of the year was 11.1 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 12.6% [2] - The steel sales volume, excluding direct sales of steel billets, saw a decrease of approximately 10% [2] - The company plans to adjust production rhythm based on downstream order demand and profitability, expecting annual production and sales to match [2] Group 2: Industry Trends and Policies - The steel industry is experiencing a supply-side contraction due to strict policies on crude steel capacity and self-discipline among steel enterprises [2] - Approximately 80% of the industry capacity is expected to complete ultra-low emission transformations by the end of the year [2] - The new 2025 version of the steel industry normative conditions aims to optimize supply and eliminate backward production capacity [3] Group 3: Financial Performance and Cost Management - The company's second-quarter performance improved significantly due to a notable decline in raw material prices compared to steel prices, leading to better profitability [4] - Cost management efforts have led to improved efficiency across various cost indicators, including process, procurement, and energy costs [4] - The company is focusing on high-end steel products, maintaining a stable market share and profitability in niche markets [4] Group 4: Demand and Market Conditions - The third quarter is traditionally a slow season, with a decrease in demand for thin plate products, although some segments like automotive steel show improvement [5] - The company anticipates that industry profitability may narrow in the third quarter due to rising raw material prices, particularly coking coal [5] Group 5: Project Developments and Future Outlook - The non-oriented silicon steel project is progressing well, with the first production line expected to meet demand from key clients in the automotive sector [6] - The VAMA joint venture is operating at near full capacity, with total sales around 1.6 million tons [7] - Future developments for VAMA include the introduction of advanced steel grades and the construction of a third phase project, which is currently in feasibility studies [8][9]

Group 1 - China's steel exports reached 9.836 million tons in July, a year-on-year increase of 25.7%, with cumulative exports from January to July at 67.98 million tons, up 11.4% year-on-year [1] - Asia remains the largest market for China's steel exports, with Southeast Asia showing a slower growth rate of 2.5% year-on-year in the first half of the year, primarily due to anti-dumping measures from some countries [1] - Exports to countries along the "Belt and Road" initiative have seen significant growth, with exports to Africa increasing by 33.3% and to Latin America by 21% in the first half of the year [1] Group 2 - The export structure of steel shows a divergence, with flat products accounting for 62.5% of total exports, but facing a decline due to anti-dumping taxes from countries like Vietnam and India [1] - In contrast, exports of steel billets, rebar, wire rods, and special steel bars have surged, with year-on-year increases of 300.3%, 89.2%, 47.4%, and 54.93% respectively, driven by infrastructure demand in emerging markets [1] - The overall trend indicates a "flat products under pressure, while billets, construction materials, and special steel bars expand rapidly," with expectations for this trend to continue [1] Group 3 - As of August 8, total inventory of five major steel products was 13.754 million tons, a 1.74% increase month-on-month, while production slightly increased by 0.21% and consumption decreased by 0.74% [3] - Despite a significant decline in new construction area in the real estate sector impacting steel consumption, strong resilience in steel exports is noted, alongside upcoming policies aimed at reducing crude steel production [3] - Environmental restrictions in places like Tangshan during the commemoration of the 80th anniversary of the victory in the War of Resistance against Japan will lead to production cuts, further tightening supply [2][3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On July 30, the silicon ferro - alloy 2509 contract closed at 6008, up 0.77%. The spot price of Ningxia silicon ferro - alloy was reported at 5830, up 80 yuan/ton. With low - level operation of production, falling cost of Ningxia semi - coke, and generally weak steel demand expectations, the ferro - alloy production profit is currently negative. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is above the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it should be treated as an oscillating operation [2]. - On July 30, the manganese silicon 2509 contract closed at 6116, down 0.42%. The spot price of Inner Mongolia silicon manganese was reported at 5900. Manganese - based leading enterprises held a seminar to promote energy conservation and emission reduction in the industry, and supply may decline. Fundamentally, the manufacturers' start - up rate has rebounded for 8 consecutive weeks at a low level, inventory is moderately high, and downstream hot metal production is at a high level. Market - wise, this month's steel mill procurement prices have rebounded compared to the tender prices. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is above the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it should be treated as an oscillating and slightly stronger operation [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - SM主力合约收盘价为6,116.00元/吨，环比下降96.00元；SF主力合约收盘价为6,008.00元/吨，环比下降102.00元 [2]. - SM期货合约持仓量为651,212.00手，环比下降4189.00手；SF期货合约持仓量为438,378.00手，环比增加6020.00手 [2]. - 锰硅前20名净持仓为 - 120,404.00手，环比下降3885.00手；硅铁前20名净持仓为 - 47,806.00手，环比下降6249.00手 [2]. - SM1 - 9月合约价差为92.00元/吨，环比增加18.00元；SF1 - 9月合约价差为132.00元/吨，环比增加26.00元 [2]. - SM仓单为78,736.00张，环比下降454.00张；SF仓单为22,003.00张，环比下降6.00张 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - 内蒙古锰硅FeMn68Si18价格为5,900.00元/吨，持平；内蒙古硅铁FeSi75 - B价格为5,870.00元/吨，环比上涨80.00元 [2]. - 贵州锰硅FeMn68Si18价格为5950.00元/吨，环比上涨50.00元；青海硅铁FeSi75 - B价格为5,710.00元/吨，环比上涨150.00元 [2]. - 云南锰硅FeMn68Si18价格为5,950.00元/吨，环比上涨50.00元；宁夏硅铁FeSi75 - B价格为5,830.00元/吨，环比上涨80.00元 [2]. - 锰硅指数均值为5688.00元/吨，环比上涨78.00元；SF主力合约基差为 - 178.00元/吨，环比上涨182.00元 [2]. - SM主力合约基差为 - 216.00元/吨，环比上涨96.00元 [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - 南非矿:Mn38块:天津港价格为37.00元/吨度，持平；硅石（98%西北）价格为210.00元/吨，持平 [2]. - 内蒙古乌海二级冶金焦价格为1050.00元/吨，环比上涨50.00元；兰炭（中料神木）价格为620.00元/吨，持平 [2]. - 锰矿港口库存为449.50万吨，环比增加21.00万吨 [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - 锰硅企业开工率为41.58%，环比上涨1.05个百分点；硅铁企业开工率为33.33%，环比上涨0.88个百分点 [2]. - 锰硅供应为186,480.00吨，环比增加3640.00吨；硅铁供应为102,300.00吨，环比增加2300.00吨 [2]. - 锰硅厂家库存为205,000.00吨，环比下降11300.00吨；硅铁厂家库存为6.21万吨，环比下降0.14万吨 [2]. - 锰硅全国钢厂库存为14.24天，环比下降1.25天；硅铁全国钢厂库存为14.25天，环比下降1.13天 [2]. - 五大钢种锰硅需求为123670.00吨，环比增加289.00吨；五大钢种硅铁需求为20065.70吨，环比增加52.00吨 [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - 247家钢厂高炉开工率为83.48%，持平；247家钢厂高炉产能利用率为90.78%，环比下降0.14个百分点 [2]. - 粗钢产量为8318.40万吨，环比下降336.10万吨 [2]. 3.6 Industry News - 当地时间7月28日至29日，中美经贸中方牵头人与美方牵头人在瑞典斯德哥尔摩举行会谈，双方将推动已暂停的美方对等关税24%部分以及中方反制措施如期展期90天 [2]. - IMF将2025年中国经济增速大幅上调0.8个百分点至4.8% [2]. - 中国钢铁工业协会会长表示，2025年国家将继续实施粗钢产量调控政策，下半年相关调控措施将显现，钢铁供需矛盾将缓解 [2]. - 今年夏天全球多地极端高温带动我国空调出口增长，1 - 6月我国空调累计出口额达93.5亿美元，同比增长近10%；对欧盟国家空调出口量同比增长43.2%，出口金额达37.6亿美元，创同期历史新高 [2].

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry in China has shown resilience in the first half of the year, managing to balance supply and demand despite challenges, leading to improved economic benefits and environmental standards [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Performance - In the first half of the year, key steel enterprises reported a total revenue of 29,985 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.79% [1] - Operating costs for these enterprises were 28,055 billion yuan, down 6.83% year-on-year [1] - Total profit reached 592 billion yuan, marking a significant year-on-year increase of 63.26% [1] - The average profit margin was 1.97%, up 0.83 percentage points compared to the previous year [1] - The loss ratio was 23.86%, which is a decrease of 18.19 percentage points year-on-year [1] Group 2: Industry Challenges and Strategies - The steel industry faces a primary contradiction between strong supply capabilities and weakened demand intensity [1] - The self-discipline in production control has helped maintain low inventory levels and stable steel prices, contributing to improved profitability [1] - The industry must recognize the ongoing pressures for stable operations in the second half of the year, which are often greater than in the first half [2] - There is a need for the industry to respond to government policies aimed at eliminating outdated production capacity and reducing inventory [2] - The expectation is that with continued self-discipline and effective government-market interaction, the market order will improve, leading to better supply-demand relationships and enhanced development vitality [2]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic steel market in China experienced a downward trend in June due to seasonal effects, supply-demand imbalances, and weakening cost support, but showed signs of slight recovery in July influenced by regulatory measures and production controls [1][2][10]. Price Index Summary - The China Steel Price Index (CSPI) averaged 90.10 points in June, a decrease of 2.26 points (2.45%) month-on-month and a decline of 14.14 points (13.56%) year-on-year [2][7]. - The long product index averaged 91.91 points, down 2.41 points (2.55%) month-on-month, and the plate index averaged 88.32 points, down 2.28 points (2.51%) month-on-month [2][4]. - By the end of June, the CSPI stood at 89.51 points, marking a 1.29 point (1.42%) decrease from the previous month and a 13.45 point (13.06%) decline year-on-year [2][7]. Price Changes by Product - In June, the average prices of major steel products fell across the board, with cold-rolled sheets seeing the largest drop of 152 yuan/ton (3.88%) [8]. - The long product index was 91.27 points, down 1.03 points (1.12%) month-on-month, while the plate index was 87.76 points, down 1.43 points (1.60%) [4][8]. Regional Price Trends - In June, the CSPI showed a general downward trend across six major regions in China, with the largest decline in North China at 2.77% and the smallest in Southwest China at 1.72% [12][13]. Factors Influencing Price Changes - Fixed asset investment in China decreased, with infrastructure investment growing by 4.6% and manufacturing investment by 7.5%, both showing a decline in growth rates [15][16]. - The crude steel production in the first half of 2025 was 51.483 million tons, down 3.0% year-on-year, while steel consumption fell by 5.5% [17][18]. International Market Trends - The CRU international steel price index was 188.1 points in June, down 7.0 points (3.6%) month-on-month and 9.4 points (4.8%) year-on-year [20][23]. - The North American steel price index decreased by 4.0%, while the European index fell by 4.5% in June [27][30]. Future Outlook - The steel market is expected to face challenges due to a complex international environment and potential trade tensions, which may impact export strategies [36][38]. - The industry should focus on production adjustments in response to demand fluctuations and adhere to national crude steel production control policies [39][32].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese steel market is expected to continue facing supply-demand imbalances, with prices likely to trend downward throughout 2025, despite some short-term technical rebounds [1][4][5] Supply Side: Policy-Driven Contraction and Global Divergence - From January to May 2025, China's crude steel production reached 43,171 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 441.4 million tons, or 1.01% [2] - The market anticipates a 1.5% year-on-year decline in crude steel production for the second half of the year, with total annual production expected to remain below 1 billion tons [2] - Global crude steel production shows structural divergence, with India's output increasing by 8.42% while Germany and Russia saw declines of 10.34% and 6.09%, respectively [2] Demand Side: Weak Real Estate Data, Slowing Infrastructure and Export Growth - From January to May 2025, China's apparent crude steel consumption was 37,842.45 million tons, down 1,585.91 million tons, or 4.02% year-on-year [3] - Real estate investment decreased by 10.7%, with new housing starts down 22.8%, negatively impacting demand for construction steel [3] - Infrastructure investment growth has slowed, and while steel exports increased by 8.2%, growth is expected to decelerate in the second half due to tariffs and anti-dumping investigations [3] Market Outlook: Continued Weakness in Supply and Demand - The steel market is projected to maintain a "dual decline" scenario, with supply constrained by crude steel reduction policies and demand showing only weak recovery [4] - The overall price trend for the year is likely to exhibit an "N" shape, with potential short-term rebounds in Q3 followed by challenges in Q4 due to seasonal demand drops and inventory pressures [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the steel industry [4]. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is currently experiencing stable supply and demand, but with weak market demand as temperatures rise. Although social inventory has slightly decreased, steel mill inventory has increased, leading to an overall rise in total inventory levels [3][4]. - Steel prices are under pressure but have shown some signs of rebound due to raw material price increases and good sales of low-priced steel resources. The report suggests that steel prices may continue to operate weakly during the off-season but still have some support at low levels due to low inventory and stable raw material prices [3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - As of June 27, 2025, the prices for five major steel products are as follows: rebar at 3,181 CNY/ton, wire rod at 3,514 CNY/ton, hot-rolled coil at 3,205 CNY/ton, cold-rolled coil at 3,607 CNY/ton, and medium plate at 3,371 CNY/ton, with weekly changes of -0.63%, -0.71%, -0.17%, -0.19%, and -0.78% respectively [2][15]. - The total production of the five major products reached 8.81 million tons, an increase of 124,800 tons week-on-week [2]. 2. Key Industry Data Tracking (a) Production Data - The average daily molten iron production from 247 steel enterprises is 2.42 million tons, with a high furnace capacity utilization rate of 90.83% [2][4]. (b) Consumption Volume of Five Major Products - The total consumption of the five major products is 8.80 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 43,300 tons [2]. (c) Inventory Situation - Total steel inventory is 13.40 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 11,400 tons. Social inventory decreased by 66,000 tons to 9.07 million tons, while steel mill inventory increased by 77,400 tons to 4.34 million tons [2][4]. (d) Profitability - The average cost of molten iron for 114 steel mills is 2,270 CNY/ton, a decrease of 23 CNY/ton week-on-week. The gross profit per ton for high furnace rebar is 145 CNY/ton, hot-rolled coil is 108 CNY/ton, and cold-rolled coil is -36 CNY/ton [2][4]. 3. Industry Policy - The report highlights ongoing government efforts to optimize industrial layout and promote the exit of inefficient production capacity while increasing high-end capacity supply [4][5].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview: Steel and Related Markets Key Points on Steel Market - Rebar prices have fallen to around 3,000 CNY/ton, alleviating some market pessimism, but increasing divergence between bulls and bears [1] - Since early June, futures have stabilized with a slowing downward slope; steel mills remain profitable due to a significant drop in carbon element costs [1][4] - High temperatures and heavy rainfall have negatively impacted demand, leading to a month-on-month decline in rebar demand, with year-on-year figures continuing to drop [1][4] - The hot-rolled market remains resilient, with downstream manufacturing maintaining high demand levels, although overall manufacturing sentiment is declining [5][6] Real Estate Impact - Real estate investment has decreased significantly, with new construction area down 20% and sales area remaining negative; this has severely impacted market confidence [7] - The expectation is that real estate policies will focus on stability in the second half of 2025, but internal momentum remains weak, and hidden inventory is high [8][9] Infrastructure Investment - Domestic policy support has increased, leading to some improvement in infrastructure investment, but traditional projects are nearing saturation and yield insufficient returns [10][11] - Excluding power-related projects, infrastructure improvement remains limited, with marginal declines noted in May data [11] Manufacturing Sector - Manufacturing sentiment has gradually declined since the beginning of the year, with May PMI at 49.5, indicating contraction [12] - Manufacturing investment growth remains high at 8.5% year-to-date, but is expected to slow due to low PPI and poor industrial profits [13][14] Steel Exports - From January to May, China exported nearly 50 million tons of steel, a year-on-year increase of 8.9%, with expectations for high export levels to continue despite domestic demand weakness [15][19] - The international trade environment is expected to be affected by policy fluctuations and trade friction risks, particularly with the U.S. [19] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic steel demand is overall weak, with expectations for continued high export levels; the market remains in a loose supply-demand state [17] - The iron ore supply is expected to be significantly relaxed in the second half of the year, with major mining companies increasing output [20][21] Coal and Coke Markets - The coking coal market has seen significant price drops, with recent rebounds being limited; global economic recession fears are impacting industrial valuations [29] - The coke market is expected to face pressure in the second half of the year due to reduced iron water production and insufficient market support [32] Iron Ore Market - The iron ore market is expected to experience slight negative growth in 2025, with supply expected to increase significantly in the second half of the year [20][28] - Domestic iron ore production is under pressure, with imports declining significantly due to various factors including weather and trade policies [23][36] Strategic Recommendations - The recommendation is to adopt a strategy of selling on rallies or rebounds, rather than chasing short positions [18] - Monitoring the developments in U.S.-China trade relations and domestic demand stimulus policies is crucial for future market direction [17] Conclusion - The overall sentiment in the steel and related markets is cautious, with significant challenges posed by weak domestic demand, real estate sector struggles, and external trade pressures. The focus remains on monitoring policy changes and market dynamics to identify potential investment opportunities and risks.