1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term surplus contradiction of coking coal has intensified due to factors such as the steady resumption of domestic coal mines, the increase in Mongolian coal supply, and the expansion of downstream blast furnace maintenance. The supply - demand contradiction of coke may further deteriorate, and the black - series prices may face downward pressure. However, the coal - coke price has some support at the bottom due to overseas energy price increases, but the surplus problem restricts its price elasticity [2]. - The near - term trading logic shows that steel billet and hot - rolled coil inventories in some areas have increased unexpectedly, and steel mills' profit pressure has increased. The far - term trading expectation is influenced by factors such as overseas coal disturbances and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which have an impact on coal - coke prices [9][10]. - The trend of coal - coke is expected to be in shock adjustment. The operating range of JM2605 is 1080 - 1190, and that of J2605 is 1650 - 1760 [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Suggestions 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - **Supply side**: Domestic coal mines are resuming production steadily, and most have returned to normal. Australian coal prices are falling, and the import volume of coking coal is expected to increase slightly. Mongolian coal supply pressure is high. The short - term surplus of coking coal is intensifying. The coking comprehensive profit has improved, and coke production is expected to increase [2]. - **Demand side**: The profitability of downstream steel products is under pressure, which may drag down the resumption progress of molten iron. The supply - demand contradiction of coke may further worsen. The terminal demand verification period from March to April is approaching, and the real - world data is becoming more important. The uncertainty in the Middle - East shipping route may suppress steel exports, and the black - series prices may face downward pressure [2]. 3.1.2 Market Positioning - **Trend judgment**: Shock adjustment. - **Price range**: JM2605 operates in the range of 1080 - 1190; J2605 operates in the range of 1650 - 1760 [12]. 3.1.3 Basic Data Overview - **Coking coal supply**: The operating rate and daily output of 523 mining enterprises and 314 coal - washing plants have increased. - **Coking coal inventory**: The inventory of 523 mining enterprises has decreased, while that of 314 coal - washing plants and independent coking enterprises has increased. - **Coke supply**: The production capacity utilization rate and daily output of independent coking enterprises and 247 steel mills have remained stable. - **Coke inventory**: The inventory of independent coking enterprises has decreased, while that of 247 steel mills has increased [16][18]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive information**: The suggestion of implementing crude steel production control is conducive to enterprises' production planning. The reduction in global oil supply due to the Strait of Hormuz issue may have an impact on energy - related products [20][21]. - **Negative information**: The export of household air - conditioners has decreased, and the export of steel products has declined year - on - year. The impact of the Middle - East situation on steel exports is significant, and the construction site resumption rate is lower than the same period last year [22][23]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events - March 16: Pay attention to China's February year - on - year growth rate of social consumer goods retail and the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value of large - scale industries. - March 18: Pay attention to the US February PPI annual rate. - March 19: Pay attention to the upper limit of the US Federal Reserve interest rate decision and the number of initial jobless claims in the week ending March 14. - March 20: Pay attention to China's one - year loan prime rate [24]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Unilateral trend**: The Jiao coal 05 contract has been strengthening in shock recently, with the first resistance level at 1190 and the second at 1240. The coke 05 contract follows the trend of Jiao coal, with the first resistance level at 1760 and the second at 1810 [25]. - **Monthly spread structure**: Analyze the term - structure spread diagrams of Jiao coal and coke, as well as the seasonality of monthly spreads [31][33]. - **Basis structure**: Analyze the seasonality of the basis of Jiao coal and coke contracts [40][41]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Profit Tracking of the Upstream and Downstream of the Industrial Chain - The coking profit has expanded due to the increase in chemical product prices, while the steel product profit has shrunk due to the rise in coal - coke and iron ore prices [43]. 3.4.2 Import - Export Profit Tracking - The first - quarter long - term contract price of Mongolian coal has increased, and the inventory pressure in the supervision area is high. The FOB price of Australian coal has decreased, and the import volume of overseas coal is expected to increase slightly [48][51]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Coking Coal Supply - Side Deduction - The weekly average coking coal output in the next 4 weeks is expected to be about 10 million tons, and the weekly average import volume is expected to be 2.3 million tons. The theoretical molten iron balance point is 2.43 million tons per day [67]. 3.5.2 Coke Supply - Side Deduction - The average weekly coke output in the next 4 weeks is expected to be about 7.78 million tons, and the average weekly export volume is expected to be 210,000 tons. The theoretical molten iron balance point is 2.34 million tons per day [70]. 3.5.3 Demand - Side Deduction - The average daily molten iron output in the next month is expected to be 2.32 million tons per day. The theoretical supply - demand difference of coking coal is about 100,000 tons per day, and that of coke is about 20,000 tons per day [72]. 3.5.4 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - Analyze the supply - demand balance sheets of coking coal and coke, including production, import, total supply, theoretical molten iron, actual molten iron, inventory, and their changes [82].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel industry [5]. Core Insights - Demand is expected to gradually stabilize, while supply-side constraints are anticipated to continue, leading to a potential recovery in the steel industry's fundamentals [3][4]. - The report highlights that despite a long period of micro-profitability in the industry, market-driven supply adjustments have begun, and if supply policies are implemented, the pace of supply contraction may accelerate [3][4]. Summary by Sections Steel Market Overview - The apparent consumption of the five major steel products was 8.2612 million tons, a decrease of 1.77% week-on-week but an increase of 4.33% year-on-year [6]. - The total steel inventory was 12.47 million tons, down 0.55% week-on-week, maintaining a low level [6]. - The average profit margin for rebar was 199.4 CNY/ton, down 15.2 CNY/ton from the previous week [6]. Production and Capacity Utilization - The production of five major steel products was 8.192 million tons, a slight increase of 0.08% week-on-week [6]. - The operating rate of blast furnaces in 247 steel mills was 78.84%, down 0.47 percentage points from the previous week [6][29]. - The capacity utilization rate for these mills was 85.48%, down 0.56 percentage points week-on-week [6][29]. Raw Material Prices - Iron ore spot prices remained unchanged, while futures prices decreased by 0.31% to 812 CNY/ton [48]. - The port inventory of iron ore rose to 165.55 million tons, an increase of 1.72% [52]. - The total shipment volume from major iron ore producers decreased, with Brazil's shipments down 7.37% and Australia's down 2.29% [53][61]. Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with leading technology and product structures, such as Baosteel and Hesteel, as well as those with competitive advantages like CITIC Special Steel and Yongjin Materials [6].

Group 1: REITs Market Overview - The secondary market prices of publicly listed REITs in China continued to decline, with the CSI REITs closing at 778.6 and the CSI REITs total return index at 1009.84, reflecting monthly returns of -3.77% and -2.93% respectively [5] - Compared to other major asset classes, the return rates ranked from high to low are: A-shares > convertible bonds > gold > pure bonds > US stocks > REITs > crude oil [5] Group 2: Real Estate Sector Insights - The article from "Qiushi" emphasizes stabilizing expectations for the real estate market in 2026, with anticipation for stronger policy support. High-energy cities are expected to benefit from urban renewal, leading to structural optimization and gradual stabilization of prices [5] - In December 2025, the top 10 real estate companies reported total sales of 189.5 billion yuan, with year-on-year declines of 12.0% and a month-on-month increase of 49.3% [6] Group 3: Steel and Metal Industry Updates - The price of tungsten concentrate has seen its first decline since October 2025, with the central economic work conference reiterating the need to address "involution" competition and promote energy-saving transformations in key industries [7] - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized management and optimization of copper smelting capacity, with cable manufacturing companies reporting the lowest operating rates in nearly six years [8] Group 4: Construction and Building Materials - Beijing's recent policy adjustments aim to optimize real estate regulations, including easing home purchase conditions for non-local families and enhancing support for multi-child households [8]

Group 1 - The steel ETF (515210) saw a net inflow of over 400 million yuan, indicating potential profit recovery for steel companies [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology have emphasized the need to address "involution" competition and continue regulating crude steel production, strengthening supply-side constraints [1] - In the first eleven months of 2025, China's crude steel production was 892 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.0%, while steel output increased by 4.0% to 1.333 billion tons [1] Group 2 - The future supply-demand landscape for China's steel industry is expected to improve due to crude steel production regulation and increasing iron ore supply [2] - The steel ETF tracks the CSI Steel Index, which reflects the overall performance of the steel industry by selecting relevant listed companies [2] - The Xiangmadu iron ore mine in Guinea is projected to start production on November 11, 2025, with an initial planned capacity of 12 million tons, contributing to increased iron ore supply and potentially lowering steel production costs [1][2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, the mid - term outlook for most products is "oscillation", indicating a neutral stance on the short - to - medium - term investment in the black building materials industry [4][9][11][12][14][18][19] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The policy in 2026 remains positive with the implementation of a more proactive fiscal policy. In the off - season, steel continues to reduce inventory, and the fundamental contradictions are limited. The futures market shows an oscillatory trend. With steel mills resuming production and the expectation of winter storage replenishment, iron ore prices are strong, while the coal - coke industry chain has increasing inventory, and the fourth round of coke price cuts has started, putting pressure on the futures market [3][4] - In the off - season, the fundamentals have few bright spots. Before the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to the downstream replenishment intensity. In January, the resumption of production by steel enterprises is expected to boost the replenishment expectation, and there is an expectation of a price increase from the low level for furnace materials [4][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Elements - **Iron Ore**: Overseas mine shipments increased month - on - month, and port inventory continued to accumulate. Steel mills made small - scale replenishments, and there was strong game between upstream and downstream. Short - term ore prices are expected to oscillate. Spot prices are strong, but after the price increase, spot trading is poor [4][9] - **Scrap Steel**: Supply and demand are both weak. Steel mills have high inventory and slow down replenishment. The spot price of scrap steel has limited upward momentum. The leading steel enterprises in East China proposed a price cut of 30 yuan/ton last weekend, and the spot market is expected to follow the price cut [4][11] Carbon Elements - **Coke**: The cost side has shown signs of stabilizing. After the fourth - round price cut is implemented, the spot price is expected to stabilize, and the futures market is expected to oscillate following coking coal. As the Chinese New Year approaches, the winter storage intensity increases, and the supply pressure will be relieved [4][12] - **Coking Coal**: The fundamentals will continue to improve marginally. There is still upward momentum for both futures and spot prices as the overall supply pressure will be alleviated with the improvement of Mongolian coal imports in January [4][13] Alloys - **Silicon Manganese**: The supply - demand pattern remains loose and is expected to become looser with the release of new production capacity in Inner Mongolia. The cost side currently supports the price, and the futures price is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation in the medium term [4][5][18] - **Silicon Iron**: Supply and demand are both weak. Alloy plants reduce production to match the declining demand. The cost of semi - coke still drags down the price, and the futures price is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation [4][5][19] Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: Supply is expected to be disrupted, but the inventory of the mid - and downstream is moderately high. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, high inventory will suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise [4][5][14] - **Soda Ash**: The overall supply - demand is in surplus. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the supply surplus pattern will intensify, and the price center will decline [4][5][17] Steel - Spot market transactions are average. The profitability of steel mills has improved, and the decline in the output of five major steel products has slowed down. The demand is seasonally declining, but there is still support. The overall steel inventory continues to decline, but the mid - level inventory is still high year - on - year. The cost side shows differentiation, and the futures price is expected to oscillate, with attention paid to the pre - holiday replenishment rhythm [9] Commodity Index - On December 29, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures Commodity Index was 2339.89, down 0.59%; the Commodity 20 Index was 2687.93, down 0.42%; the industrial product index was 2258.87, down 0.70%. The steel industry chain index on the same day had a daily increase of 0.11%, a 5 - day decrease of 0.02%, a 1 - month decrease of 0.99%, and a year - to - date decrease of 6.27% [105][107]

Market Overview - The A-share market continues to experience a震荡上涨, with major indices showing recovery in both volume and liquidity. Weekly financing increased significantly, with stock ETFs seeing a net inflow of 36.34 billion yuan, indicating positive market sentiment following the Central Economic Work Conference in December [5][6]. Industry Insights - The copper price outlook remains positive, supported by the National Development and Reform Commission's emphasis on optimizing traditional industries, including copper smelting. Despite a decrease in cable companies' operating rates, the supply-demand dynamics for copper are expected to remain tight into 2026, favoring price increases [5]. - The steel sector is facing a high inventory level for hot-rolled coils, the highest in five years. The Central Economic Work Conference has reiterated the need for controlling crude steel production, which may lead to a more balanced supply and improved profitability for the steel sector in the long term [6]. Utilities Sector - The annual long-term contract bidding results in Guangdong met expectations, with the comprehensive on-grid electricity price remaining stable. Additionally, the capacity subsidy in Shanghai has increased to 165 yuan per kilowatt for 2026. As of November, the total electricity consumption increased by 6.2% year-on-year, and the cumulative installed power generation capacity rose by 17.1% year-on-year [8]. Pharmaceutical Sector - The approval of oral semaglutide for weight loss by the FDA is expected to catalyze industry growth. Recent clinical data from Structure and Gilead Pharmaceuticals has shown promising results, and collaborations between Pfizer and Fosun Pharma for oral small molecule weight loss drugs are underway. Furthermore, Shiyao Innovation has announced a platform integration for its GLP-1 business [8].

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. Core View The report anticipates that coke will continue its short - term correction. The overall coke supply - demand is weak due to increasing supply and low - level operation of hot metal production along with poor steel mill profits. The fourth round of price cuts has started, and the continued implementation of crude steel production control by the NDRC is negative for raw material demand, causing short - term market sentiment to weaken [1][2]. Summary of Key Points by Section Market Analysis - Coke inventory: As of December 26, independent coke enterprises' inventory increased slightly by 1.25% to 92.24 million tons, steel mills' inventory increased by 1.34% to 642.2 million tons, and port inventory increased by nearly 2%. The comprehensive coke inventory increased by 14.36 million tons to 978.64 million tons, reaching a 12 - week high with a year - on - year increase of 4.7% [1]. - Profit: The average profit of 30 independent coking plants nationwide is - 18 yuan/ton. The average profit of Shanxi quasi - first - grade coke is - 3 yuan/ton, Shandong quasi - first - grade coke is 27 yuan/ton, Inner Mongolia second - grade coke is - 64 yuan/ton, and Hebei quasi - first - grade coke is 35 yuan/ton [1]. - Downstream demand: Steel terminal demand is weak, mainly for rigid - demand replenishment. The profitability of 247 steel mills increased by 1.3 percentage points to 37.23%, and the daily average hot metal output increased by 0.03 million tons to 226.58 million tons, ending a five - week decline, but still 1.29 million tons less than last year [1]. Upstream Coking Coal - Inventory: Independent coke enterprises' coking coal inventory increased slightly by 3.43 million tons to 1039.72 million tons, steel mills' inventory increased by 1.73 million tons to 806.72 million tons, coal mine inventory increased by 10.1 million tons, and port imported coking coal inventory increased by 23.09 million tons. The comprehensive coking coal inventory increased by 1.47% to 2647.24 million tons, reaching a 7 - month high, with a year - on - year decline of nearly 14% [2]. - News: Mainstream steel mills in Hebei and Tianjin launched the fourth round of price cuts. The NDRC will continue to control crude steel production, strictly prohibit illegal new capacity, and promote survival of the fittest. The SASAC requires state - owned enterprises to resist "involution - style" competition. The National Finance Work Conference was held, stating that a more proactive fiscal policy will be continued in 2026 [2]. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The 05 coke contract opened at 1720, reached a low of 1676.5, and closed at 1680.5, with an increase of 1123 lots. It declined with increasing positions during the day, and is expected to continue the short - term correction. Attention should be paid to the pressure of the 5 - day moving average and the support near the previous low [3]. - Spot: The port spot market was stable. The ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port was 1460. The trading atmosphere in the spot market was average, and the inventory at the two ports increased slightly compared with the previous trading day [4].

Investment Rating - The report rates the steel industry as "Overweight," indicating a positive outlook for the sector compared to the overall market performance [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the Chinese government is committed to controlling crude steel production, which is expected to improve the supply-demand dynamics in the steel industry. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has emphasized the need to curb low-quality competition and regulate production capacity [2]. - In the first eleven months of 2025, China's crude steel production was 892 million tons, a decrease of 4.0% year-on-year, while steel product output increased by 4.0% to 1.333 billion tons. This suggests a shift in production focus and an anticipated improvement in the supply side of the market [2]. - The report notes that the commissioning of the Simandou iron ore mine is expected to contribute significantly to iron ore supply, which may lead to a decline in iron ore prices and reduce cost pressures on steel companies [2]. - Demand is expected to show structural differentiation, with resilient demand in the manufacturing sector supporting the profitability of plate and special steel segments, while the construction sector remains weak [2]. - The report suggests that as the steel consumption structure shifts from construction to manufacturing, investors should focus on undervalued, high-dividend stocks in the plate sector, such as Baosteel, Nanjing Steel, and Hualing Steel, as well as high-end stainless steel and special steel companies like Jiuli Special Materials and CITIC Special Steel [2]. Summary by Sections Production Control - The government has announced ongoing measures to control crude steel production and prevent the addition of new capacity, which is expected to optimize the supply side of the steel market [2]. Raw Material Supply - The Simandou iron ore mine has commenced production, with an expected annual capacity of 12 million tons, contributing to a more favorable pricing environment for iron ore [2]. Demand Dynamics - The report anticipates a divergence in demand, with manufacturing-related sectors showing resilience, while construction demand remains weak [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on low-valuation, high-dividend stocks in the manufacturing-oriented steel sector and highlights the importance of special steel in emerging sectors like energy and defense [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint of the Report - The coke supply is continuously increasing and it is in the seasonal inventory accumulation stage. The demand side has low iron - water production and poor steel - mill profits, resulting in overall weak supply and demand for coke. However, the winter - storage restocking demand of coking plants and steel mills is gradually emerging, and the macro - environment has generally improved. Therefore, it is expected that coke will run in a short - term volatile manner [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - As of December 26, the coke inventory of independent coking enterprises increased slightly by 1.25% to 92.24 tons, the coke inventory of steel mills increased by 1.34% to 642.2 tons, and the port coke inventory also increased by nearly 2%. The comprehensive coke inventory increased by 14.36 tons week - on - week to 978.64 tons, reaching a 12 - week high with a year - on - year increase of 4.7% [1] - The average profit of 30 independent coking plants nationwide is - 18 yuan/ton. The average profit of quasi - first - grade coke in Shanxi is - 3 yuan/ton, in Shandong is 27 yuan/ton, in Inner Mongolia's second - grade coke is - 64 yuan/ton, and in Hebei's quasi - first - grade coke is 35 yuan/ton [1] - The terminal demand for steel is weak, mainly for rigid - demand restocking. The profitability rate of 247 steel mills increased by 1.3 percentage points to 37.23%. The daily average pig - iron output increased by 0.03 tons week - on - week to 226.58 tons, ending the previous five - week consecutive decline, and is 1.29 tons less than the same period last year [1] Upstream Coking Coal - Steel and coking enterprises are cautious in purchasing. The inventory of independent coking enterprises increased slightly by 3.43 tons to 1039.72 tons, the coking coal inventory of steel mills increased slightly by 1.73 tons to 806.72 tons, and the coking coal inventory of coal mines increased by 10.1 tons. At the same time, the port's imported coking coal inventory increased by 23.09 tons. The comprehensive coking coal inventory increased by 1.47% to 2647.24 tons, reaching a nearly 7 - month high, with a year - on - year decline of nearly 14% [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission will continue to regulate crude steel production, prohibit illegal new capacity additions, and promote survival of the fittest. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will intensively regulate "involution - style" competition and firmly curb low - price and low - quality competition [2] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - On the futures trading floor, the 05 - contract coke opened at 1735, dropped to a minimum of 1677.5, and closed at 1720, adding 781 lots. The price first decreased and then increased during the day, and it is in a volatile trend on the daily - line level. Attention should be paid to the support at the intraday low and the pressure of the 40 - day moving average [3] - In the spot market, the port spot market is stable. The ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port is 1460. The trading atmosphere in the spot market is average, and the inventory at the two ports has slightly increased compared with the previous trading day [4]

Group 1 - The core view of the report indicates that the steel industry is expected to face challenges in demand due to a decline in real estate and construction activities, with a projected decrease in crude steel demand from 101,530 million tons in 2023 to 98,649 million tons in 2026, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 1.10% [44][61][71] - The report highlights that the real estate sector's steel demand is projected to drop significantly from 30,747 million tons in 2023 to 10,061 million tons in 2026, marking a substantial decrease of 67.32% [44][61][71] - Infrastructure demand is expected to remain stable, with a slight increase from 15,327 million tons in 2025 to 15,634 million tons in 2026, indicating a growth of 2.00% [44][61][71] Group 2 - The report outlines that the machinery sector's steel demand is projected to grow from 14,524 million tons in 2025 to 14,959 million tons in 2026, reflecting a growth rate of 3.00% [44][61][71] - The automotive sector is expected to see an increase in steel demand from 6,911 million tons in 2025 to 7,256 million tons in 2026, which represents a growth of 5.00% [44][61][71] - The energy sector's steel demand is projected to remain stable, with a slight decrease from 4,123 million tons in 2025 to 4,082 million tons in 2026, indicating a decline of 1.00% [44][61][71] Group 3 - The report emphasizes the importance of government policies in stimulating demand, particularly in the real estate sector, where favorable policies are expected to boost demand expectations [12] - The report notes that the steel industry is undergoing a transformation with a focus on energy efficiency and emissions reduction, as indicated by the government's plans to enhance energy efficiency standards and reduce crude steel production [59] - The report suggests that the overall steel market will experience a shift towards more sustainable practices, which may impact production levels and demand dynamics in the coming years [59]