点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 今 日 聚 焦 （何缅南）2026-01-04 【固收】二级市场价格延续下跌态势，新增多只产品申报及受理——REITs月度观察（20251201-20251231） 2025年12月1日-2025年12月31日（以下简称"本月"），我国已上市公募REITs的二级市场价格整体延续上月的 波动下行趋势：中证REITs（收盘）和中证REITs全收益指数分别收于778.6和1009.84，本月回报率分别 为-3.77%和-2.93%。与其他主流大类资产相比，回报率由高至低排序分别为：A股>可转债>黄金>纯债>美股 >REITs>原油。 （张旭/秦方好）2026-01-05 【房地产】《求是》刊文稳预期，2026年期待政策加力——光大地产板块及重 ...

相关机构表示，发改委和工信部近期相继发声，强调要深入整治"内卷式"竞争，持续实施粗钢产量 调控，钢铁供给端约束预期强化。根据国家统计局数据，25年1-11月，我国粗钢产量8.92亿吨，同比下 降 4.0%；生铁产量 7.74 亿吨，同比下降 2.3%；钢材产量 13.33 亿吨，同比增长 4.0%。未来粗钢产量调 控持续预期下，预计钢铁供给端格局将进一步优化。 根据我的钢铁网及力拓集团，西芒杜铁矿位于几内亚东南部，已探获标准资源量 44.1 亿吨，平均 铁品位超过 65%，初期规划年产能 1.2 亿吨，占 23 年全球铁矿产量的 4.8%。根据宝武集团官方公众 号，2025 年 11 月 11 日，西芒杜铁矿正式投产，预计明后年将持续贡献增量。西芒杜铁矿的投产，不 仅贡献了铁矿石供给增量，且由于宝武集团和中铝等中资企业参与度较高，也有助于提高中国企业在铁 矿上的议价能力，预期铁矿价格中枢将有所下行，进而一定程度上降低钢铁企业成本压力。 粗钢产量调控背景下，未来我国钢铁供需格局将持续改善，叠加铁矿供给的趋于宽松，钢企利润有 进一步修复空间。 钢铁ETF（515210）跟踪的是中证钢铁指数（930606），该指数 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-12-30 炉料表现分化，关注冬储补库 近⽇全国财政⼯作会议表⽰2026年继续实施更加积极的财政政策， 政策基调仍显积极。钢材淡季延续去库，基本⾯⽭盾有限，盘⾯震荡 运⾏。钢⼚复产叠加冬储补库预期仍存，铁矿价格表现偏强。煤焦产 业链库存增加，焦炭四轮提降开启，盘⾯表现承压。 近日全国财政工作会议表示2026年继续实施更加积极的财政政策，政 策基调仍显积极。钢材淡季延续去库，基本面矛盾有限，盘面震荡运 行。钢厂复产叠加冬储补库预期仍存，铁矿价格表现偏强。煤焦产业 链库存增加，焦炭四轮提降开启，盘面表现承压。 ⿊⾊建材团队 研究员： 1. 铁元素方面：铁水基本持稳，港口库存持续累积，钢厂少量补 库，上下游博弈较强，短期矿价预计震荡运行。废钢供需双弱，钢厂 库存偏高，补库放缓，废钢现货上涨乏力，华东主导钢企上周末提降 30元/吨，预计现货市场跟跌为主。 2. 碳元素方面：焦炭成本端已有企稳迹象，且进入一月后钢厂有复 产预期，随着中下游冬储补库逐渐开启，焦炭供需结构或将逐渐变 紧，四轮提降落地后现货有望企稳，盘面预计跟随焦煤震荡 ...

查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 今 日 聚 焦 【金工】市场仍将震荡上行——金融工程市场跟踪周报20251229 上周A股延续震荡上涨，主要宽基指数量能皆有修复。资金面方面，周度融资增加额环比上期大幅增长，股票 型ETF资金净流入363.41亿元，资金表现积极。从近期市场表现来看，12月中央经济工作会议召开之后市场交 易情绪有所提振，资金面表现持续改善，为市场进一步上行奠定基础。风格方面，短线基本面因子表现持续占 优，后续或仍将延续。中长线看好"红利+科技"配置主线。 （祁嫣然/陈颖/张威）2025-12-29 点击注册小程序 2月中央经济工作会议再提深入整治"内卷式"竞争及深入推进重点行业节能降碳改造，12月底发改委强调继续 实施粗钢产量调控，我们认为中长期来看钢铁板块供给或将得到 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 利润方面，全国 30 家独立焦化厂平均盈利-18 元/吨；山西准一级焦平均盈 利-3 元/吨，山东准一级焦平均盈利 27 元/吨，内蒙二级焦平均盈利-64 元/吨， 河北准一级焦平均盈利 35 元/吨。 下游需求，钢材终端需求疲弱，刚需补库为主；247 家钢厂盈利率回升 1.3 个百分点至 37.23%，日均铁水产量环比上周增加 0.03 万吨至 226.58 万吨，中 止前期五连降，同比去年减少 1.29 万吨。 上游焦煤：钢焦企业采购均较谨慎，独立焦企库存微增 3.43 万吨至 1039.72 万吨，钢厂炼焦煤库存小增 1.73 万吨至 806.72 万吨，煤矿炼焦煤库存增加 10.1 万吨的同时，港口进口炼焦煤库存增加 23.09 万吨。因此，炼焦煤综合库存环增 1.47%至 2647.24 万吨，创近 7 个月新高，同比降幅仍达近 14%。 消息方面，河北天津主流钢厂开启第四轮提降。国家发改委：持续实施粗钢 产量调控，严禁违规新增产能，促进优胜劣汰。工国务院国资委:国有企业要带 头抵制"内卷式"竞争带动产业链上下游企业融通发展。全国财政工作会议在北京 召开。会议指出，2026 年 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the steel industry as "Overweight," indicating a positive outlook for the sector compared to the overall market performance [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the Chinese government is committed to controlling crude steel production, which is expected to improve the supply-demand dynamics in the steel industry. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has emphasized the need to curb low-quality competition and regulate production capacity [2]. - In the first eleven months of 2025, China's crude steel production was 892 million tons, a decrease of 4.0% year-on-year, while steel product output increased by 4.0% to 1.333 billion tons. This suggests a shift in production focus and an anticipated improvement in the supply side of the market [2]. - The report notes that the commissioning of the Simandou iron ore mine is expected to contribute significantly to iron ore supply, which may lead to a decline in iron ore prices and reduce cost pressures on steel companies [2]. - Demand is expected to show structural differentiation, with resilient demand in the manufacturing sector supporting the profitability of plate and special steel segments, while the construction sector remains weak [2]. - The report suggests that as the steel consumption structure shifts from construction to manufacturing, investors should focus on undervalued, high-dividend stocks in the plate sector, such as Baosteel, Nanjing Steel, and Hualing Steel, as well as high-end stainless steel and special steel companies like Jiuli Special Materials and CITIC Special Steel [2]. Summary by Sections Production Control - The government has announced ongoing measures to control crude steel production and prevent the addition of new capacity, which is expected to optimize the supply side of the steel market [2]. Raw Material Supply - The Simandou iron ore mine has commenced production, with an expected annual capacity of 12 million tons, contributing to a more favorable pricing environment for iron ore [2]. Demand Dynamics - The report anticipates a divergence in demand, with manufacturing-related sectors showing resilience, while construction demand remains weak [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on low-valuation, high-dividend stocks in the manufacturing-oriented steel sector and highlights the importance of special steel in emerging sectors like energy and defense [2].

【冠通期货研究报告】 焦炭日报：短期偏震荡运行 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 26 日 【行情分析】 焦炭库存，截至 12 月 26 日独立焦企焦炭库存微增 1.25%至 92.24 万吨，而 钢厂焦炭库存累增 1.34%至 642.2 万吨，港口焦炭库存同样增加近 2%，焦炭综合 库存环比增加 14.36 万吨至 978.64 万吨，达 12 周高位，同比增幅达 4.7%。 利润方面，全国 30 家独立焦化厂平均盈利-18 元/吨；山西准一级焦平均盈 利-3 元/吨，山东准一级焦平均盈利 27 元/吨，内蒙二级焦平均盈利-64 元/吨， 河北准一级焦平均盈利 35 元/吨。 下游需求，钢材终端需求疲弱，刚需补库为主；247 家钢厂盈利率回升 1.3 个百分点至 37.23%，日均铁水产量环比上周增加 0.03 万吨至 226.58 万吨，中 止前期五连降，同比去年减少 1.29 万吨。 上游焦煤：钢焦企业采购均较谨慎，独立焦企库存微增 3.43 万吨至 1039.72 万吨，钢厂炼焦煤库存小增 1.73 万吨至 806.72 万吨，煤矿炼焦煤库存增加 10.1 万吨的同时，港口进口炼焦煤库存增加 23. ...

Group 1 - The core view of the report indicates that the steel industry is expected to face challenges in demand due to a decline in real estate and construction activities, with a projected decrease in crude steel demand from 101,530 million tons in 2023 to 98,649 million tons in 2026, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 1.10% [44][61][71] - The report highlights that the real estate sector's steel demand is projected to drop significantly from 30,747 million tons in 2023 to 10,061 million tons in 2026, marking a substantial decrease of 67.32% [44][61][71] - Infrastructure demand is expected to remain stable, with a slight increase from 15,327 million tons in 2025 to 15,634 million tons in 2026, indicating a growth of 2.00% [44][61][71] Group 2 - The report outlines that the machinery sector's steel demand is projected to grow from 14,524 million tons in 2025 to 14,959 million tons in 2026, reflecting a growth rate of 3.00% [44][61][71] - The automotive sector is expected to see an increase in steel demand from 6,911 million tons in 2025 to 7,256 million tons in 2026, which represents a growth of 5.00% [44][61][71] - The energy sector's steel demand is projected to remain stable, with a slight decrease from 4,123 million tons in 2025 to 4,082 million tons in 2026, indicating a decline of 1.00% [44][61][71] Group 3 - The report emphasizes the importance of government policies in stimulating demand, particularly in the real estate sector, where favorable policies are expected to boost demand expectations [12] - The report notes that the steel industry is undergoing a transformation with a focus on energy efficiency and emissions reduction, as indicated by the government's plans to enhance energy efficiency standards and reduce crude steel production [59] - The report suggests that the overall steel market will experience a shift towards more sustainable practices, which may impact production levels and demand dynamics in the coming years [59]

Group 1: Renewable Energy - In the first three quarters of this year, the newly installed capacity of renewable energy reached 310 million kilowatts, representing a year-on-year growth of 47.7%, accounting for approximately 84.4% of the total new installed capacity [3] - Renewable energy generation amounted to 2.89 trillion kilowatt-hours, which is about 40% of the total electricity generation, significantly supporting the overall electricity supply [3] Group 2: Steel Industry - In the first three quarters, the total crude steel production in the country was 746 million tons, achieving the production control target [5] - The total profit of key steel enterprises reached 96 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 190%, indicating that the overall operational situation of the industry is better than expected and its risk resistance capability is continuously improving [5] Group 3: Foreign Trade - In the first three quarters, the national trade promotion system issued various certificates, including certificates of origin, with a year-on-year growth of 17.64% [7] - The number of RCEP certificates issued totaled 242,500, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 25.57%, demonstrating the strong resilience of China's foreign trade in the first three quarters [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China's steel production and apparent consumption have been declining in the first three quarters of the year, with a continued expectation of a decrease for the entire year [1] - In the first three quarters, the total crude steel production in China reached 746 million tons, representing a year-on-year decrease of 2.9% [1] - The industry is expected to meet its crude steel production control targets for the year, indicating a focus on managing output levels [1]