Core Insights - The article discusses China's economic outlook and key macro themes for the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" (2026-2030), highlighting the importance of nominal GDP growth and various strategic focuses for sustainable economic development [5][6]. Group 1: Economic Growth Targets - China is expected to achieve most of the goals set in the "14th Five-Year Plan" by the end of 2025, with an implicit GDP growth target of 5.0-5.5% for the current plan and a potential slight reduction to 4.5-5.0% for the upcoming plan [5][6]. - The nominal GDP growth is crucial for achieving long-term goals, including raising per capita GDP to $14,000 by 2025 and doubling the actual GDP size compared to 2020 [5][6]. Group 2: High-Quality Growth and Innovation - The focus on "high-quality growth" and "new productivity" driven by innovation and total factor productivity growth is expected to be a primary task for the next decade [7]. - R&D spending is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate exceeding 7%, increasing its share of GDP from 2.7% in 2024 to 3.2% by 2030 [7]. Group 3: Consumption and Domestic Demand - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is anticipated to place greater emphasis on boosting consumption to achieve more sustainable and balanced economic growth [8]. - Potential measures include increasing household income, enhancing social security systems, and improving the quality of consumption, with a goal to raise consumption's share of GDP from 56.6% in 2024 to 58-60% by 2030 [8]. Group 4: Social Investment and Welfare - The government is expected to reiterate the theme of "investing in people," focusing on new urbanization, vocational training, and increased fiscal spending on education, healthcare, and social security [9]. Group 5: Market Integration and Anti-Competition Measures - The new plan may enhance policies against "involution" and promote the establishment of a "national unified market," aiming to curb disorderly local government investments and stimulate local consumption [10]. Group 6: Opening Up and Global Integration - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is likely to further open up the service sector to foreign investment, particularly in telecommunications, healthcare, and finance [11]. - There will be increased policy support for Chinese companies to expand globally, especially in competitive emerging industries like new energy vehicles and e-commerce [11]. Group 7: Carbon Emission Reduction Goals - The new plan may set ambitious carbon emission reduction targets, aiming for a 24% decrease in carbon emissions per unit of GDP from 2026 to 2030 [12]. - It is expected to establish a target for non-fossil energy to account for 25% of total energy consumption by 2030, up from approximately 20% in 2024 [12]. Group 8: Fiscal and Tax Reforms - The government is likely to accelerate fiscal reforms, including the introduction of more direct taxes and adjustments to the distribution of tax revenues between central and local governments [13][14]. - Proposed reforms may include shifting consumption tax collection from production to consumption and creating a new "local additional tax" to allow local governments to set their own rates [14].