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冠通期货宏观与大宗商品周报-20250922
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-09-22 11:22
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - After the super central bank week ended, the Fed cut interest rates by 25BP as expected, and many central banks followed suit. The trading logic of interest rate cuts was adjusted, and major assets corrected the over - priced loose expectations and brewed new trading logics [6][11]. - Global major stock markets showed mixed performance. The US stocks rebounded after an initial decline and reached a new all - time high, while the A - shares adjusted after a sharp rise. The BDI index rose slightly, the VIX volatility index increased significantly, the US Treasury yields and the US dollar index rebounded after hitting bottom, and non - US currencies performed differently [6][11]. - Commodity trends were divergent. Gold corrected after reaching a high and fluctuated, the sharp decline in copper prices dragged down the entire non - ferrous sector, and oil prices remained weak. The CRB index declined significantly on a weekly basis. In China, an article by senior officials was published in Qiushi Journal, triggering an anti - involution market and boosting the strong rise of the black series, with coking coal and coke leading the gains, followed by glass and soda ash [6][11]. - The domestic bond market showed mixed performance and was under pressure in the long - term. Stock indices were also divergent. The domestic commodity sectors showed mixed performance, with most closing down. The growth - style stocks were significantly more resilient, while value stocks tumbled [7]. - The domestic commodity sectors showed an internal - strong and external - weak style. The correction in precious metals and the sharp decline in non - ferrous metals dragged down the overall commodity performance. The coal, coking, steel, and mining sectors and the non - metallic building materials sector rose strongly due to the resurgence of the anti - involution market. The energy, oilseeds, and chemical sectors rose slightly. The agricultural products sector led the decline with a drop of - 4.33%, followed by the grain sector with a decline of over - 1% [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Big - Class Assets - After the super central bank week, the Fed cut interest rates by 25BP, and many central banks followed. Global major stock markets, bond markets, currencies, and commodities showed mixed performance. In China, the anti - involution market pushed up the black series [6][11]. 3.2. Sector Express - The domestic bond market was mixed and under long - term pressure, stock indices were divergent, and most domestic commodity sectors closed down. The growth - style stocks were more resilient, and value stocks tumbled. The Wind Commodity Index declined by - 0.19% on a weekly basis, with 4 out of 10 commodity sub - indices rising and 6 falling. The internal - strong and external - weak style was evident, with precious metals' correction and non - ferrous metals' decline dragging down the overall performance [7][17]. 3.3. Fund Flows - Last week, funds in the commodity futures market flowed out slightly. The soft commodities, coal, coking, and steel sectors, and the agricultural products sector saw obvious fund inflows, while the non - ferrous metals and energy sectors saw significant outflows [20]. 3.4. Variety Performance - Most domestic major commodity futures closed down last week. The top - rising commodity futures were coking coal, coke, and industrial silicon, while the top - falling ones were live pigs, 20 - number rubber, and soybean meal [26]. 3.5. Volatility Characteristics - Last week, the volatility of the international CRB commodity index decreased significantly, the volatility of the domestic Wind Commodity Index increased, and the Nanhua Commodity Index declined significantly. Most commodity futures sectors saw a slight increase in volatility, with the energy and chemical sectors experiencing a significant decline, while the grain, coal, coking, steel, and mining sectors, and the non - metallic building materials sector saw a significant increase [31]. 3.6. Data Tracking - Internationally, most major commodities closed up, with the BDI rising, soybeans and corn increasing, copper and oil falling, and gold and silver almost flat. The gold - silver ratio was under pressure and the gold - oil ratio declined. Domestically, the asphalt operating rate rebounded rapidly, real estate sales continued to decline weakly, freight rates dropped rapidly, and short - term capital interest rates fluctuated and rebounded [34][55]. 3.7. Macro Logic - Stock indices adjusted after a sharp rise and were mixed. Valuations were under pressure, and the risk premium ERP rebounded after hitting bottom. Commodity price indices adjusted after a sharp rise, inflation expectations rebounded, and the divergence between expectations and reality converged [39][48]. - The US Treasury yields showed a divergent trend, with short - term yields weak and long - term yields strong. The term structure steepened, the term spread widened, the real interest rate rebounded, and the gold price was under pressure at a high level [62]. - The US high - frequency "recession indicator" weakened, the impact of tariffs on the economy became more obvious, and the 10Y - 3M US Treasury spread turned positive [72]. 3.8. Fed Interest Rate Cut Expectations - The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP in September as expected. The probability of another 25BP cut in October to 3.75% is 95.2%, and the probability of a further cut in December is high. It is expected to cut interest rates three times this year, a total of 75BP, and 1 - 2 times in 2026 to around 3% [78]. 3.9. China - US Madrid Economic and Trade Talks - From September 14th to 15th, China and the US reached a basic framework consensus on properly resolving the TikTok - related issues, reducing investment barriers, and promoting economic and trade cooperation. The market reacted positively after the results were announced [83][85]. 3.10. The Publication of an Article in Qiushi Journal - An article by General Secretary Xi Jinping was published in Qiushi Journal, emphasizing the construction of a national unified market. The anti - involution market restarted, which had strategic significance in multiple dimensions [88]. 3.11. September FOMC Meeting - The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP at the September FOMC meeting, which was called a "risk - control" interest rate cut. Most policymakers expect to cut interest rates two more times this year. The meeting also adjusted the statement on employment, highlighting the increased risk of employment decline [91]. - The market reaction to the meeting was mainly an adjustment due to over - pricing. Globally, it was a reaction to the fact that the actual result fell short of expectations after a major event. In China, it led to a triple - kill of stocks, bonds, and commodities, reflecting the disappointment of policy expectations [105]. 3.12. Global Central Bank Policies - After the Fed restarted interest rate cuts, many central banks around the world followed suit. The main theme of global central bank policies was easing, but the paces of different countries varied according to their own situations [112][113]. 3.13. Market Outlook after Interest Rate Cuts - After the interest rate cuts, the market macro - logic may switch from interest - rate - cut trading to recovery trading. The US dollar may rebound slightly after an initial weakness if the economic fundamentals improve. Gold may correct after over - pricing the interest rate cut expectations, but its long - term upward trend remains. The performance of commodities will be divergent, with silver and copper benefiting from the recovery trading, and coking coal and new - energy varieties being favored if the domestic economy weakens unexpectedly [117][131]. 3.14. This Week's Focus - A series of economic data releases and speeches by central bank officials from different countries are scheduled from September 22nd to 26th, including China's one - year LPR, Eurozone's consumer confidence index, and US GDP and inflation data [135].