1、现货价格：国产金川品牌维持12.20万元，其他品牌11.98万元附近，期货升水500元 2、成本端：港口镍矿库存增加110.69万湿吨至1205.85万湿吨，增幅10.11% 3、仓单量：交易所库存维持高位，沪镍较上期增加447吨至2.25万吨。据LME公布数据显示，截至7月31日LME原产自中国镍库存升至128058吨，较上 月增加6630吨 华安期货投研 黑色金属周报 跌破1.3万关口后市如何进行---不锈钢/沪镍 核心逻辑： 不锈钢：短期关注三点：1、印尼青山、甬金本周再度调涨出口报价，华南某钢厂因原料缺乏而停机一周，总体对 于盘面有所支撑。2、主力合约贴水现货价格，期限结构整体扁平，远月升水不足，远期盘面稍显偏弱。3、原材料 镍铁价格价格企稳，同时钢厂8月排产小幅企稳，产能压力缓和的同时不锈钢传统的旺季，有利于稳定市场盘面。 未来行情变盘在于主力持仓能否提前转移至2601合约，未来不能过于悲观，短期下行空间有限，支撑位1.25-1.29 万。 沪镍：短期关注两点:1、9月降息预期仍然存疑，美联储降息对于有色金属的企稳起到支撑作用。2、本周沪镍增仓 下跌，近月盘面跌破12万关口，短期盘面较弱。长期重 ...

本周沪深两市出现了加速上攻的态势，在突破3700点整数关口之后继续上扬。本周创下了诸多新纪录， 比如两市总市值首次突破100万亿大关；还有一个指标，两融余额时隔10年再次回到2万亿以上。这表明 投资者信心正在逐步提升，而本周市场日成交量均在2万亿以上，最高达到2.7万亿，可见投资者交投意 愿十分活跃。反映场外资金入场意愿的两个指标也值得关注，一是7月份新开股票账户数达到200万户； 二是新基金发行首发规模不断提升，权益类基金的新发规模普遍超过10亿大关。这些都说明当前随着市 场行情逐步确立牛市走势，投资者信心正在逐步回升，市场走势也愈演愈烈，这充分验证了我此前提出 的判断"五穷六绝七翻身"，即下半年市场行情将有效突破去年10月8日创下的高点，进一步向上拓展空 间，如今这一判断已完美实现。 这轮行情与10年前相比，发起的原因类似，但走势预计会有所不同。此轮行情可能会延续2-3年，呈现 慢牛、长牛走势，而10年前2015年的大牛市则是快牛。当时场外配资较多，而这次从一开始就控制场外 配资，防止市场走向快牛、疯牛，力求走出慢牛、长牛走势，这更利于投资者在市场行情中获得较为理 想的回报。当前GDP与国债收益率的剪刀差 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a rotation in the anti-involution trend, with funds focusing on policy directions [2][4] - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.17%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.01%, indicating mixed performance among sectors [2] - Southbound funds saw a net outflow of HKD 14.682 billion, with Tencent Holdings and Pop Mart being the most actively traded stocks [2][4] Group 2: Company Analysis - Pop Mart - Pop Mart reported a revenue increase of 204.4% year-on-year to RMB 13.88 billion for the first half of 2025, with adjusted net profit rising by 362.8% to RMB 4.71 billion [7][9] - The company's gross margin improved by 6.3 percentage points to 70.3%, attributed to a higher proportion of overseas sales and a decrease in outsourced products [7] - Pop Mart's self-owned IP products accounted for 99.1% of sales, with significant contributions from major IPs like THE MONSTERS and MOLLY [9] Group 3: Regional Performance - Revenue from the Chinese region reached RMB 8.28 billion, up 135.2%, while the Asia-Pacific region saw a 257.8% increase to RMB 2.85 billion [9] - The Americas experienced a remarkable growth of 1,140% in revenue, totaling RMB 2.26 billion, driven by a 744.3% increase in offline sales [9] - All regions demonstrated strong growth, with online and offline sales both contributing significantly [9] Group 4: Product Category Performance - Plush products generated RMB 6.14 billion in revenue, marking a 1,280% increase, while figurines achieved RMB 5.18 billion, up 94.8% [9] - The diversification of product categories is evident, with the plush segment surpassing figurines for the first time [9] - The company continues to launch popular products across various categories, enhancing its market presence [9]

Group 1 - The recent surge in both US and Chinese stock markets has surprised global traders, with US stocks reaching historical highs and A-shares approaching the 3700-point mark, driven by ample liquidity and improved profit expectations [1][6] - Goldman Sachs noted that A-shares were the second-largest market for capital inflows on August 13, indicating a growing interest from international investors despite historically low allocations to Chinese equities [1][6] - The US stock market's rally has been primarily led by technology giants, with significant year-to-date gains for companies like Nvidia (33.5%), Meta (32.5%), and Microsoft (22.8%), while the overall concentration of gains remains high [2][3] Group 2 - The total market capitalization of the US tech giants has exceeded $18 trillion, surpassing the annual GDP of all countries except the US and China, with Nvidia becoming the first company to reach a $4 trillion valuation [3] - A recent mild inflation report has contributed to the bullish sentiment in the US stock market, with the July CPI rising 0.2% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year, which is lower than expected [3][4] - The Russell 2000 index has outperformed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices, indicating a "junk rally" as lower-quality stocks have seen significant gains amid a more positive macroeconomic outlook [4] Group 3 - A-shares have shown a strong upward trend, supported by actual trading activity, with a trading volume of 2.1 trillion yuan on August 13, the highest since February [6] - Morgan Stanley reported that the Hang Seng Index and MSCI China Index have been the best-performing global indices over the past year, with absolute returns of 54% and 48%, respectively [6] - The "anti-involution" movement in China is boosting market sentiment, with foreign investors focusing on profit growth and showing interest in sectors with higher margins [8] Group 4 - Foreign long-term investors have begun to increase their allocations to Chinese stocks, with net inflows of $1.2 billion in June and $2.7 billion in July, indicating a positive trend for the second half of the year [8] - Structural improvements in the Chinese stock market, driven by regulatory reforms and corporate governance enhancements, are expected to attract more foreign capital [8] - Despite the positive outlook, there are concerns about the rapid rise of small-cap stocks, which have increased over 50% since early April, potentially leading to a market correction [9]

Group 1 - A-shares have become the second-largest market for capital inflow as of August 13, with a notable increase in trading activity and a strong upward trend, approaching the 3700-point mark [1][5] - The recent rally in A-shares is supported by ample liquidity, expectations of improved profitability due to "anti-involution" measures, and a significant increase in trading volume, with a transaction amount of 2.1 trillion yuan on August 13, the highest since February [5][6] - Morgan Stanley has shifted its preference from Hong Kong stocks to A-shares, noting that the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 have outperformed the Hang Seng Index since late June [6] Group 2 - The U.S. stock market, particularly driven by technology giants, has seen significant gains, with Nvidia up approximately 33.5% and Meta up about 32.5% year-to-date, while the overall concentration of gains is at a historically high level [2][3] - The total market capitalization of the U.S. tech giants has exceeded $18 trillion, surpassing the annual GDP of all countries except the U.S. and China, with Nvidia becoming the first company to reach a $4 trillion market cap [3] - The recent mild inflation report in the U.S. has contributed to the bullish sentiment in the stock market, with the CPI rising 0.2% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year, which is lower than expected [3][4] Group 3 - The "anti-involution" campaign in China is positively influencing market sentiment, with foreign investors focusing on profitability growth despite previous low margins due to intense competition [7] - Morgan Stanley anticipates a stronger inflow of foreign capital into Chinese stocks in the latter half of the year, driven by structural improvements in the market and a shift towards high-quality large tech and financial companies [7][8] - The small-cap stocks have seen significant gains, with the Wind Micro-Cap Index rising over 50% since early April, leading to concerns about potential adjustments due to overvaluation [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Recently, the capital market withstood the shock of the disappointing non - farm payroll data, risk appetite quickly recovered, and the macro - logic shifted to interest - rate cut trading. Risk assets generally rose in price. Overseas, the Fed's "independence" was challenged, and the increasing weight of dovish members strengthened the expectation of interest - rate cuts. Domestically, the "anti - involution" market emerged again, with July's import and export data exceeding expectations and inflation improving month - on - month. [6] - In the future, the weakening of the US dollar after the non - farm payroll shock is a key macro - factor. Globally, the divergence between sentiment and reality needs to converge, and the pressure of tariffs on the global economy will lead to the re - pricing of risk assets. Domestically, the cooling of overseas sentiment, combined with the economic downward pressure and the failure of policy expectations, will cause the "anti - involution" market to pause, and both the stock and commodity markets will face correction pressure. However, the flexibility of macro - policies may lead to the introduction of unexpected policies. [7] Section Summaries 1. Asset Classes - Overseas, most global major stock markets rose, the VIX index plunged, the BDI index rose continuously, the US dollar index declined, non - US currencies generally benefited, commodity trends were divided, oil prices dropped dragging down the CRB index, while gold and copper rose. Domestically, the "anti - involution" market emerged, July's import and export data exceeded expectations, and inflation improved month - on - month with PPI negative for 34 consecutive months. [6][10] 2. Sector Updates - The domestic bond market rose slightly, with short - term bonds weaker and long - term bonds stronger. The stock market generally rose, with the growth - style stocks rising more significantly than value - style stocks, and the market risk preference increased. The domestic commodity sectors were mixed, with the Wind Commodity Index rising 1.86% weekly, 5 out of 10 commodity sector indices rising and 5 falling. [6][16] 3. Capital Flows - Last week, the overall capital in the commodity futures market flowed in slightly. The energy, coal - coking - steel - ore, grain, oilseeds, agricultural products, and soft commodity sectors had obvious capital inflows, while the non - ferrous and soft commodity sectors had obvious outflows. [19] 4. Product Performance - Most domestic major commodity futures rose last week. The top - rising commodity futures were coking coal, lithium carbonate, and coke, while the top - falling ones were fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, and asphalt. [23] 5. Volatility Characteristics - Last week, the volatility of the international CRB Commodity Index decreased significantly, and the volatilities of the domestic Wind Commodity Index and Nanhua Commodity Index also declined. Most commodity futures sectors saw a decrease in volatility, with the precious metals, soft commodities, chemicals, and non - ferrous sectors experiencing a significant decline, while the agricultural products and grain sectors saw an obvious increase. [29] 6. Macro Logic - Stock Index - Last week, the four major domestic stock indices fluctuated at high levels after rising and then falling. Both growth and value stocks rose, market sentiment improved significantly, stock index valuations increased collectively, and the risk premium ERP was under pressure. [44] 7. Macro Logic - Commodity Price Index - The commodity price index was under pressure and fluctuated, inflation expectations rebounded, and the trends of expectations and reality were intertwined. [46] 8. Stock - Commodity Relationship - Last week, both the stock and commodity markets rose, and the commodity - stock return difference declined slightly. The domestic - priced commodities were more resilient, and the "anti - involution" market continued with the domestic - strong and overseas - weak style of commodities remaining. [54] 9. Macro Logic - US Treasury Bonds - The yield of US Treasury bonds rebounded, with short - term bonds weaker and long - term bonds stronger, the term structure steepened bearishly, the term spread was stable, the real interest rate was under pressure, and the gold price fluctuated upwards. [64] 10. Macro Logic - US Economy - The US high - frequency "recession indicator" showed resilience, the impact of tariffs on the economy was initially obvious, and the 10Y - 3M spread of US Treasury bonds fluctuated around 0. [72] 11. Fed Interest - Rate Cut Expectations - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September to 4 - 4.25% is 86.6%, significantly higher than the previous week. There are expectations of further interest - rate cuts in October or December, with a probability of about 40% for 2 - 3 rate cuts within the year. [81] 12. China's Economic Data - In July 2025, China's import and export data both exceeded expectations. The inflation data showed that CPI and PPI improved month - on - month, with PPI negative for 34 consecutive months year - on - year. [101][108] 13. "Anti - Involution" Market - The "anti - involution" market in the domestic commodity futures market may pause due to various factors, but the cooling does not mean a reversal. The essence of this market lies in the understanding of "anti - involution". [7][114] 14. "Involution" Analysis - "Involution" refers to the vicious competition where economic entities invest a lot of resources but do not increase overall revenue. It includes low - price competition, homogeneous competition, and "race - to - the - bottom" in marketing. Local governments also contribute to involution through improper policies. The harm of involution is significant at the macro, meso, and micro levels. [119][121][125] - To combat "involution", it is necessary to coordinate supply and demand sides, combine an effective market with an active government, and strengthen industry self - discipline. [136] 15. This Week's Focus - This week, important events include the RBA's interest - rate decision, OPEC's monthly oil market report, US CPI data, and speeches by Fed officials. [163]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Current price data remains weak, and domestic demand recovery is limited after excluding seasonal summer effects. The increase in July's core CPI is mainly supported by the summer travel boom and high gold prices. The divergence between PPI production and living materials shows that the policy effects of the national unified market construction are concentrated in upstream industries, and the ineffective recovery of domestic demand restricts PPI's year - on - year recovery. The sustainability of the industrial price increase and its price transmission to downstream industries depend on the improvement of terminal demand. Given the uncertainty in the trade environment, a loose monetary environment is needed to stabilize domestic demand [4][29]. - After the implementation of the VAT policy, the bond market adjustment is limited. With relatively loose funds, the central bank's net injection of 300 billion yuan in 3 - month repurchase agreements on the 8th may help the market recovery. The first - stage interest rate will return to the pre - adjustment level. Whether it can break through the previous low depends on other market performances and fundamental pressures. The recent rise in commodities and the stock market is mainly based on expectations, and the unchanged year - on - year decline in July's PPI indicates slowing demand. For the bond market, the overall pattern of asset shortage remains unchanged. It is expected that the yields of 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds may return to around 1.65% and 1.85% in the short term, and may break through the previous low if other markets rise moderately and demand continues to slow [5][30]. Summary by Related Catalogs CPI Analysis - **Overall CPI Situation**: In July, CPI continued to be low, with the year - on - year growth rate slowing down by 0.1 percentage points to 0%. The month - on - month growth rate was 0.4%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. Core CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and 0.4% month - on - month. The growth of core CPI was mainly due to the summer travel demand and high gold prices. After excluding the "other goods and services" item affected by gold prices, the overall price level was still weak [1][2]. - **Non - food CPI**: In July, non - food CPI increased by 0.3% year - on - year, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and 0.5% month - on - month. The rise in summer service prices was the main reason, with service prices increasing by 0.6% month - on - month, contributing more than 60% to the CPI increase [2]. - **Food CPI**: In July, food CPI decreased by 1.6% year - on - year, with the decline expanding by 1.3 percentage points from the previous month, and decreased by 0.2% month - on - month, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points. The year - on - year decline in pork prices was the main reason for the expanding decline in food CPI. Affected by high - temperature and rainy weather, the prices of fresh vegetables and aquatic products increased month - on - month [13]. PPI Analysis - **Overall PPI Situation**: In July, PPI showed a lagging performance, with a year - on - year decline of 3.6%, the same as the previous month. The decline in the year - on - year and month - on - month production materials PPI narrowed slightly. The prices of most domestic manufacturing raw materials decreased month - on - month, mainly affected by seasonal factors and international trade uncertainties. The prices of industries with high export proportions were under increasing downward pressure, but the month - on - month decline in many industries' prices converged under the influence of the national unified market construction [1][3][23]. - **Production and Living Materials PPI**: In July, the production materials PPI decreased by 4.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and decreased by 0.2% month - on - month, with the decline narrowing by 0.4 percentage points. The living materials PPI decreased by 1.6% year - on - year, with the decline expanding by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [23][24]. Bond Market Analysis - After the implementation of the VAT policy, the bond market adjustment was limited. With relatively loose funds, the central bank's net injection of 300 billion yuan in 3 - month repurchase agreements on the 8th may help the market recovery. The first - stage interest rate will return to the pre - adjustment level. The recent rise in commodities and the stock market was mainly based on expectations, and the unchanged year - on - year decline in July's PPI indicated slowing demand. For the bond market, the overall pattern of asset shortage remained unchanged. It is expected that the yields of 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds may return to around 1.65% and 1.85% in the short term, and may break through the previous low if other markets rise moderately and demand continues to slow [5][30].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the volatility in the commodity market, particularly focusing on the recent surge and subsequent crash in prices, highlighting the impact on traders and investment firms in Hangzhou [6][8][14]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The commodity market experienced a rapid increase in prices, with polysilicon rising over 70% in a month and coking coal hitting a rare five consecutive limit-up days [6][7]. - Following the Dalian Commodity Exchange's position limits on coking coal on July 25, prices plummeted, leading to significant losses for many traders and investment products [7][8]. - The volatility resulted in substantial losses for various asset management products, with some firms reporting losses exceeding 6% [8][12]. Group 2: Hangzhou Trading Community - The Hangzhou trading community, known for its strong commodity trading culture, includes major players such as trade companies and the Yong'an system, which are sensitive to industrial cycles [10][11]. - The article describes the competitive landscape of futures companies in Hangzhou, emphasizing the influence of Yong'an Futures and its training approach for research personnel [12][13]. - Despite their expertise, the Hangzhou traders were caught off guard by the rapid market fluctuations, leading to a collective underestimation of the power of policy and market sentiment [13][20]. Group 3: Economic Context - The current market environment differs significantly from previous supply-side reforms, with unclear demand sources and a focus on downstream private enterprises [15][16]. - Analysts express confusion over the price increases in coking coal and soda ash, citing a lack of concrete execution details and a disconnect between market sentiment and actual demand [16][17]. - The article highlights the challenges of balancing production capacity governance with maintaining reasonable output and effective demand in the current economic climate [17][18]. Group 4: Emotional Trading and Market Reactions - The article notes that emotional trading has taken precedence over fundamental analysis, with traders reacting to market rumors and speculative news rather than solid data [18][19]. - The extreme volatility in coking coal trading, with significant fluctuations in trading volume and price, exemplifies the chaotic nature of the current market [19][20]. - The Hangzhou trading community, traditionally grounded in industry knowledge, struggles to adapt to the emotionally driven trading environment, leading to substantial financial risks [20][22]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The article concludes that the key to future market dynamics will be whether the expectations of demand improvement can translate into reality, setting the stage for a critical confrontation between bullish and bearish sentiments [27][28].

Market Overview - The market is currently experiencing a temperature check with a significant portion of the indices showing a long-term signal of 75% [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index have shown varying performance, with the latter two indices experiencing declines of 1.62% and 0.77% respectively [1] Sector Performance - The chemical sector has shown a strong rebound, with a notable increase in the index closing over 1% higher, driven by a net capital inflow of over 144 billion yuan in the past 60 days [4][6] - The media sector led the inflow of funds with 1.072 billion yuan, while the computer sector faced the largest outflow of 89.79 billion yuan [2] Investment Signals - The chemical and financial technology sectors are highlighted as having significant potential for investment, with the chemical sector benefiting from policy expectations and valuation recovery [6] - The recent implementation of the stablecoin regulations in Hong Kong is expected to create opportunities in the fintech sector, particularly for those obtaining the first batch of licenses [6] ETF Performance - The chemical ETF has shown a 10.60% increase over the past six months, indicating strong performance in this sector [4] - The financial technology ETF has also demonstrated robust growth, with a notable increase in trading volume and turnover [4] Future Outlook - The chemical sector's future performance will depend on actual improvements in the fundamental aspects of the industry, despite the current positive sentiment [6] - The fintech sector is expected to gain traction as stablecoin regulations take effect, with a focus on platforms that can create use cases for stablecoins [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core View The report aims to objectively reflect the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, track hot - spot varieties, analyze market investment sentiment, and summarize investment driving logic. It is based on the publicly - released research reports of institutions in the current week, and summarizes the long - short views and trading logic of various futures varieties [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Commodities**: From July 21 to July 25, 2025, among commodities, the prices of some commodities such as coking coal, glass, and polysilicon increased significantly, with coking coal rising 35.96%, glass 25.99%, and polysilicon 16.36%. While the prices of some commodities such as corn, palm oil, and crude oil decreased, with corn down 0.13%, palm oil 0.31%, and crude oil 0.56% [2]. - **Stocks**: A - shares (CSI 500, SSE 50, etc.), overseas stocks (Nikkei 225, Hang Seng Index, etc.) generally showed an upward trend. For example, the CSI 500 rose 3.28%, the Nikkei 225 4.11%, and the Hang Seng Index 2.27% [2]. - **Bonds**: The prices of Chinese treasury bonds (2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year) all increased, with the 5 - year treasury bond rising 5.91%, the 10 - year 4.35%, and the 2 - year 3.28% [2]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The euro - US dollar exchange rate rose 0.99%, while the US dollar index fell 0.80% and the US dollar intermediate price fell 0.11% [2]. 3.2 Commodity Views 3.2.1 Macro - financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Among 9 institutions' views, 3 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. The bullish factors include large - scale infrastructure projects driving policy - based demand expectations, the fermentation of the anti - involution market, the rise of pro - cyclical sectors, and the increase in A - share trading volume. The bearish factors include the pressure of short - term profit - taking, potential regulatory measures, the reduction of ETF shares, and increased market risk aversion [4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Among 7 institutions' views, 0 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 6 expect a sideways trend. The bullish factors include the central bank's loose liquidity policy, the expectation of interest rate cuts, and the potential improvement of the bond market sentiment. The bearish factors include the stock - bond seesaw effect, the improvement of corporate expectations, and the expected fiscal expansion [4]. 3.2.2 Energy Sector - **Crude Oil**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 are bullish, 3 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend. The bullish factors include strong fundamental demand in the peak season, potential interest rate cuts, tight Russian shipments, and a decline in US crude oil production. The bearish factors include the peak refinery utilization rate, a stronger US dollar, seasonal demand weakness, and the potential return of Iranian supply [5]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products Sector - **Palm Oil**: Among 8 institutions' views, 3 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend. The bullish factors include the unexpected US biodiesel policy, increased domestic consumption in Malaysia, limited production potential in Southeast Asia, low inventories in India, and the support of Indonesia's B50 blending policy. The bearish factors include good production performance, lower - than - expected exports, and expected inventory accumulation in China [5]. 3.2.4 Non - ferrous Metals Sector - **Copper**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. The bullish factors include the boost of the "anti - involution" policy, the recovery of global manufacturing PMI, long - term demand expectations from infrastructure projects, and low domestic copper inventories. The bearish factors include potential price fluctuations due to macro events, weak US manufacturing data, seasonal demand weakness, and the potential decline in copper prices following the weakening of the commodity market sentiment [6]. 3.2.5 Chemical Sector - **Glass**: Among 8 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 2 are bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. The bullish factors include the stimulation of macro - policies, strong arbitrage demand, inventory reduction, and the approaching peak season. The bearish factors include speculative inventory accumulation, potential profit - taking, weak real - estate data, and potential supply increases [6]. 3.2.6 Precious Metals Sector - **Gold**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. The bullish factors include the expectation of a Fed rate cut, increased risk - aversion demand, potential trade - related risks, policy uncertainty, and increased net long positions. The bearish factors include progress in trade negotiations, strong US economic data, the Fed's possible wait - and - see attitude, and a stronger US dollar [7]. 3.2.7 Black Metals Sector - **Coking Coal**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. The bullish factors include high molten iron production, macro - economic support, price increases in coke, and the recovery of coking plant production. The bearish factors include regulatory measures, the resumption of coal mine production, sufficient imported coal supply, and increased coking plant inventories [7].