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- The report highlights the reversal of the momentum style factor observed after the US-China summit, indicating a shift in market narrative and the end of the previous technology-driven bull market [14] - The leverage factor has shown significant upward movement since late September, reflecting market pricing of earnings recovery expectations [14] - The BARRA style factor analysis reveals that fundamental factors remain mixed, with value-oriented assets outperforming growth-oriented ones. High BP value stocks and those with strong investment quality and profitability are expected to deliver higher excess returns [23] - Transaction-related factors show that short-term momentum stocks performed well this week, while high volatility and high turnover stocks faced potential pullbacks. High beta stocks have recovered strongly from recent corrections [23] - Market capitalization factors, including size and non-linear size, experienced synchronized pullbacks, with non-linear size showing larger declines. The market may exhibit a barbell allocation pattern, favoring small-cap stocks in the short term [23]

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic stocks continue to rise, driven by news of a planned restructuring platform for polysilicon, which is expected to create a fund of approximately 70 billion yuan for acquisitions [1][1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Xinyi Solar (00968) increased by 5.42%, trading at 3.89 HKD [1]. - Flat Glass (601865) rose by 4.79%, reaching 12.69 HKD [1]. - New Energy (01799) saw a 2.48% increase, priced at 8.68 HKD [1]. - GCL-Poly Energy (03800) gained 2.17%, trading at 1.41 HKD [1]. Group 2: Industry Developments - A consortium for the restructuring of polysilicon is in the planning stages, with specific acquisition details still under discussion [1]. - The consortium is expected to establish a fund of around 70 billion yuan, utilizing a leveraged acquisition strategy [1]. - GCL-Poly's chairman indicated that 17 leading companies have largely agreed to form the consortium, with completion anticipated by 2025 [1]. Group 3: Market Trends - According to a report from Industrial Securities, the third quarter saw a rise in polysilicon prices due to anti-competitive measures, leading to a reduction in losses for the photovoltaic main chain [1]. - The photovoltaic industry is expected to experience a quarter-on-quarter improvement in performance, supported by both anti-competitive measures and structural opportunities from supply-side reforms and technological changes [1].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recent upward trend in solar stocks, with notable increases in share prices for companies such as Xinyi Solar, Flat Glass, and New Special Energy [1][1][1] - A significant development is the planning of a "joint platform" for polysilicon restructuring, with discussions ongoing regarding the specifics of the acquisition [1][1][1] - The anticipated fund for this initiative is expected to be around 70 billion yuan, utilizing a leveraged acquisition strategy to mobilize 700 billion yuan [1][1][1] Group 2 - According to a report from Industrial Securities, the third quarter saw a rise in polysilicon prices driven by anti-competitive measures, indicating a trend of reduced losses in the solar industry [1][1][1] - The solar industry is projected to experience a dual benefit from improved quarterly performance and substantial support from anti-competitive measures, suggesting a potential recovery from the current cyclical low [1][1][1] - There is a recommendation to actively invest in the anti-competitive market trends, with a focus on supply-side reform expectations and structural opportunities arising from new technological changes [1][1][1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - In October, capital markets experienced increased volatility, with risk assets generally rising after an initial decline. Overseas, geopolitical events and policy uncertainties influenced market trends, while in China, economic data weakened in Q3, leading to strengthened policy support [4][63]. - The significant correction in gold prices from historical highs can be attributed to factors such as the easing of geopolitical risks, the rebound of the US dollar, and technical adjustments. However, the long - term drivers for gold prices remain strong [5][8]. - The IMF raised its global economic growth forecast for 2025 but emphasized the fragility of the global economy and the need for structural reforms [34][36]. - In China, CPI and PPI both showed narrowing declines, indicating potential for monetary easing policies. Exports in September exceeded expectations, but the real estate sector continued to drag down the economy [40][50][59]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Global Capital Market Performance - **Overseas**: Trump's tariff increase on China, the US government shutdown, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations affected market sentiment. Risk assets generally rose, but gold and silver prices corrected significantly, and non - US currencies depreciated [4][63]. - **Domestic**: The domestic futures market showed a differentiated pattern, with stocks, bonds, and commodities having mixed performances. The stock market experienced a technical correction, and the bond market showed a seesaw effect with the stock market [4][69]. Gold Price Analysis - **Reasons for the Correction**: The decline in gold prices was due to the easing of geopolitical risks, the rebound of the US dollar, and technical overbought conditions, which triggered large - scale profit - taking and programmed selling [5][8]. - **Historical Comparison**: The 5.31% decline in London spot gold on October 21, 2025, ranked seventh among the top ten single - day declines since 2000 [9]. - **Long - term Outlook**: The long - term drivers for gold prices, including the weakening of the US dollar's credit, the strengthening of interest - rate cut expectations, the "scar effect" on asset allocation, and investment demand, remain intact [21][24]. Global Economic Outlook - **Growth Forecast**: The IMF raised the global economic growth forecast for 2025 to 3.2% but warned of continued weakness, high public debt, and trade policy uncertainties [34][36]. - **Regional Performance**: Asia is expected to remain the main engine of global growth. AI is estimated to boost global economic growth by 0.1% - 0.8% annually [36]. China's Economic Indicators - **CPI and PPI**: In September, China's CPI was - 0.3% year - on - year, and PPI was - 2.3% year - on - year. Both showed narrowing declines, but CPI was still affected by factors such as low pork and oil prices and high - base effects [41][43]. - **Exports**: In September, China's exports reached $3285.7 billion, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%, exceeding expectations [50]. - **GDP**: In the first three quarters of 2025, China's GDP was 1015036 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.2% at constant prices [58]. - **Real Estate**: From January to September, national real estate development investment decreased by 13.9% year - on - year, with significant declines in various real - estate - related indicators [59]. Market Trends - **Commodities**: The CRB and Nanhua commodity indices showed different trends. Historically, the Nanhua commodity index has a slightly higher probability of rising in November [75]. - **Stock Market**: In October, the stock market experienced a technical correction, with value stocks outperforming growth stocks. The price - to - earnings ratios of major stock indices were under pressure, and the equity risk premium rebounded [79]. - **Global Economy**: Global economic sentiment weakened, with both the manufacturing and service sectors showing a decline. Inflation in major economies rebounded, and central banks' monetary policies diverged [86][94][97]. - **China's Economy**: China's manufacturing PMI continued to improve in September, while M2 growth declined, M1 growth increased, and the credit cycle showed signs of starting [106][111]. - **External Demand**: China's export growth showed resilience, but there were still concerns about external demand. Import and export price indices declined, and the export profit margin widened negatively [123]. - **Internal Demand**: Real - estate investment continued to decline, and consumption growth slowed down, with travel data dropping after the summer vacation [124][131]. - **Inflation**: China's CPI remained negative, and PPI decline slowed down. The macro - profit margin (CPI - PPI) decreased [134]. - **Mid - level Industries**: Steel prices fluctuated downward, oil prices dropped with increased inventory, copper prices rose with inventory reduction, and coking coal prices continued to rebound [141].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - After the super central bank week ended, the Fed cut interest rates by 25BP as expected, and many central banks followed suit. The trading logic of interest rate cuts was adjusted, and major assets corrected the over - priced loose expectations and brewed new trading logics [6][11]. - Global major stock markets showed mixed performance. The US stocks rebounded after an initial decline and reached a new all - time high, while the A - shares adjusted after a sharp rise. The BDI index rose slightly, the VIX volatility index increased significantly, the US Treasury yields and the US dollar index rebounded after hitting bottom, and non - US currencies performed differently [6][11]. - Commodity trends were divergent. Gold corrected after reaching a high and fluctuated, the sharp decline in copper prices dragged down the entire non - ferrous sector, and oil prices remained weak. The CRB index declined significantly on a weekly basis. In China, an article by senior officials was published in Qiushi Journal, triggering an anti - involution market and boosting the strong rise of the black series, with coking coal and coke leading the gains, followed by glass and soda ash [6][11]. - The domestic bond market showed mixed performance and was under pressure in the long - term. Stock indices were also divergent. The domestic commodity sectors showed mixed performance, with most closing down. The growth - style stocks were significantly more resilient, while value stocks tumbled [7]. - The domestic commodity sectors showed an internal - strong and external - weak style. The correction in precious metals and the sharp decline in non - ferrous metals dragged down the overall commodity performance. The coal, coking, steel, and mining sectors and the non - metallic building materials sector rose strongly due to the resurgence of the anti - involution market. The energy, oilseeds, and chemical sectors rose slightly. The agricultural products sector led the decline with a drop of - 4.33%, followed by the grain sector with a decline of over - 1% [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Big - Class Assets - After the super central bank week, the Fed cut interest rates by 25BP, and many central banks followed. Global major stock markets, bond markets, currencies, and commodities showed mixed performance. In China, the anti - involution market pushed up the black series [6][11]. 3.2. Sector Express - The domestic bond market was mixed and under long - term pressure, stock indices were divergent, and most domestic commodity sectors closed down. The growth - style stocks were more resilient, and value stocks tumbled. The Wind Commodity Index declined by - 0.19% on a weekly basis, with 4 out of 10 commodity sub - indices rising and 6 falling. The internal - strong and external - weak style was evident, with precious metals' correction and non - ferrous metals' decline dragging down the overall performance [7][17]. 3.3. Fund Flows - Last week, funds in the commodity futures market flowed out slightly. The soft commodities, coal, coking, and steel sectors, and the agricultural products sector saw obvious fund inflows, while the non - ferrous metals and energy sectors saw significant outflows [20]. 3.4. Variety Performance - Most domestic major commodity futures closed down last week. The top - rising commodity futures were coking coal, coke, and industrial silicon, while the top - falling ones were live pigs, 20 - number rubber, and soybean meal [26]. 3.5. Volatility Characteristics - Last week, the volatility of the international CRB commodity index decreased significantly, the volatility of the domestic Wind Commodity Index increased, and the Nanhua Commodity Index declined significantly. Most commodity futures sectors saw a slight increase in volatility, with the energy and chemical sectors experiencing a significant decline, while the grain, coal, coking, steel, and mining sectors, and the non - metallic building materials sector saw a significant increase [31]. 3.6. Data Tracking - Internationally, most major commodities closed up, with the BDI rising, soybeans and corn increasing, copper and oil falling, and gold and silver almost flat. The gold - silver ratio was under pressure and the gold - oil ratio declined. Domestically, the asphalt operating rate rebounded rapidly, real estate sales continued to decline weakly, freight rates dropped rapidly, and short - term capital interest rates fluctuated and rebounded [34][55]. 3.7. Macro Logic - Stock indices adjusted after a sharp rise and were mixed. Valuations were under pressure, and the risk premium ERP rebounded after hitting bottom. Commodity price indices adjusted after a sharp rise, inflation expectations rebounded, and the divergence between expectations and reality converged [39][48]. - The US Treasury yields showed a divergent trend, with short - term yields weak and long - term yields strong. The term structure steepened, the term spread widened, the real interest rate rebounded, and the gold price was under pressure at a high level [62]. - The US high - frequency "recession indicator" weakened, the impact of tariffs on the economy became more obvious, and the 10Y - 3M US Treasury spread turned positive [72]. 3.8. Fed Interest Rate Cut Expectations - The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP in September as expected. The probability of another 25BP cut in October to 3.75% is 95.2%, and the probability of a further cut in December is high. It is expected to cut interest rates three times this year, a total of 75BP, and 1 - 2 times in 2026 to around 3% [78]. 3.9. China - US Madrid Economic and Trade Talks - From September 14th to 15th, China and the US reached a basic framework consensus on properly resolving the TikTok - related issues, reducing investment barriers, and promoting economic and trade cooperation. The market reacted positively after the results were announced [83][85]. 3.10. The Publication of an Article in Qiushi Journal - An article by General Secretary Xi Jinping was published in Qiushi Journal, emphasizing the construction of a national unified market. The anti - involution market restarted, which had strategic significance in multiple dimensions [88]. 3.11. September FOMC Meeting - The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP at the September FOMC meeting, which was called a "risk - control" interest rate cut. Most policymakers expect to cut interest rates two more times this year. The meeting also adjusted the statement on employment, highlighting the increased risk of employment decline [91]. - The market reaction to the meeting was mainly an adjustment due to over - pricing. Globally, it was a reaction to the fact that the actual result fell short of expectations after a major event. In China, it led to a triple - kill of stocks, bonds, and commodities, reflecting the disappointment of policy expectations [105]. 3.12. Global Central Bank Policies - After the Fed restarted interest rate cuts, many central banks around the world followed suit. The main theme of global central bank policies was easing, but the paces of different countries varied according to their own situations [112][113]. 3.13. Market Outlook after Interest Rate Cuts - After the interest rate cuts, the market macro - logic may switch from interest - rate - cut trading to recovery trading. The US dollar may rebound slightly after an initial weakness if the economic fundamentals improve. Gold may correct after over - pricing the interest rate cut expectations, but its long - term upward trend remains. The performance of commodities will be divergent, with silver and copper benefiting from the recovery trading, and coking coal and new - energy varieties being favored if the domestic economy weakens unexpectedly [117][131]. 3.14. This Week's Focus - A series of economic data releases and speeches by central bank officials from different countries are scheduled from September 22nd to 26th, including China's one - year LPR, Eurozone's consumer confidence index, and US GDP and inflation data [135].

Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Cut - The Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00% to 4.25%, resuming the rate cuts paused since December of the previous year [2] - The decision is expected to lead to a downward trend in the US dollar and US Treasury yields, positively impacting gold and overseas assets [2] - The A-share market is anticipated to continue its upward trend, with technology growth sectors expected to benefit the most [2] Group 2: Securities Firms and Compliance Issues - Hunan Securities Regulatory Bureau issued a warning to Huabao Securities for violating client solicitation regulations [3] - The A-share market has shown increased trading activity, but some securities firms are engaging in non-compliant practices to capture market share [3] Group 3: Fund Manager Changes - Recent announcements indicate that high-performing fund managers are likely to leave their positions, with new managers being appointed to their funds [4] - The trend of fund manager turnover is attributed to the high-quality development action plan for public funds and the increasing "Matthew effect" in the industry [4] Group 4: ETF Fund Applications - There has been a surge in applications for chemical-themed funds, with four new funds submitted for approval in September [5][6] - The increased interest in chemical funds is driven by positive investment outlooks and expectations of a new supply-side reform in the industry [6] Group 5: Public Fund Sales Fee Reform - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has introduced a sales fee reform plan aimed at reducing investor costs and enhancing the quality of the fund industry [7][8] - The reform includes measures to lower subscription fees and regulate advisory services, addressing industry pain points [8] Group 6: REITs Market Trends - The public REITs market experienced a decline, with the overall index down by 0.81% as of September 12 [11] - The decline was observed across various project types, with only a small number of REITs showing positive performance [11] Group 7: Securities Firms' Dividend Policies - A total of 28 out of 42 listed securities firms announced plans for mid-term dividends, with a total proposed payout of 18.797 billion yuan, marking a nearly 40% increase from the previous year [12] Group 8: International Asset Management Developments - DWS, a major European asset management firm, plans to launch an ETF tracking the CSI A500 index in October, aiming to provide new investment opportunities in Chinese assets [13] - The firm believes that international investors will soon recognize their underexposure to the Chinese market [13] Group 9: Private Fund Issues - A private fund has been implicated in illegal fundraising activities, leading to police intervention and the disappearance of a key executive [18] - The case highlights ongoing concerns regarding compliance and regulatory oversight in the private fund sector [18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since August 13th, the adjustment wave of anti - involution varieties has lasted for a month. As time progresses, it is approaching the end of the adjustment wave, and the overall view is bullish. In specific sectors, the outlook for oilseeds and fats is bullish, while that for chemicals is bearish [2][3][5] - In addition to industrial products, agricultural products have also stabilized recently. The downward driving force of agricultural products has further weakened, but attention should be paid to the risk of soybean meal prices caused by uncertain tariffs [3][4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Trend - From August 13th, the adjustment wave of anti - involution varieties has lasted for a month. During this period, varieties with weak fundamentals and low basis, such as glass, soda ash, PVC, urea, and crude oil, have adjusted and led the decline, while polysilicon and coking coal have maintained horizontal consolidation. As the adjustment wave nears its end, these varieties will choose a direction [4] - Agricultural products have stabilized. The USDA supply - demand report on September 12th showed a slight increase in the US soybean ending inventory, but it could not drive the market lower. The path of least resistance for US soybeans is no longer downward, and there is little point in short - selling domestic soybean meal and oil varieties. The risk lies in tariffs [4] 3.2 Capital Flow - The total capital flow is 10.312 billion. Among different sectors, precious metals have a capital flow of 2.421 billion, non - ferrous metals have - 0.143 billion, black metals have 0.447 billion, energy has 0.83 billion, chemicals have 0.265 billion, feed and breeding have 0.479 billion, oilseeds and fats have 0.06 billion, and soft commodities have 0.065 billion [8] 3.3 Weekly Data of Different Sectors - **Black and Non - ferrous Metals**: Data such as price percentile, inventory percentile, valuation percentile, position percentile, basis difference percentile, and annualized basis are provided for various black and non - ferrous metal varieties, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, etc. [8] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Similar data are provided for energy and chemical varieties, such as fuel oil, low - sulfur oil, asphalt, etc. [10] - **Agricultural Products**: Data for agricultural products like soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean oil, etc. are presented, including price percentile, inventory percentile, etc. [11]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of U.S. interest rate cuts on commodity prices, the current state of the egg market, trading strategies in various sectors, and the dynamics of the lithium market in China, highlighting potential investment opportunities and market trends. Group 1: U.S. Interest Rate Cuts and Commodity Prices - The relationship between overseas commodity indices and the U.S. dollar index has shifted over the years, showing a positive correlation before 2001, a negative correlation from 2001 to 2021, and a return to positive correlation from 2021 to 2024 due to the U.S. becoming a net exporter of oil [2]. - Commodity indices typically exhibit a "√" shaped trend during interest rate cuts, initially declining before rebounding as the Federal Reserve waits for unemployment and inflation to stabilize [2]. Group 2: Egg Market Analysis - The current egg market is characterized by slow depletion, steep structure, and high volatility, suggesting a prolonged decline in prices until March next year [3]. - A single strategy based on the leading chicken index indicates that shorting near-month contracts on price rallies is advisable, while an arbitrage strategy suggests that the near-low and far-high structure will continue [3]. Group 3: Trading Strategies - Identifying market trends is crucial for stock trading, with a focus on leading stocks within sectors that are experiencing significant upward movement [5]. - The initiation point of a main upward wave is often marked by a MACD crossover above the zero line, indicating a strong buying opportunity [7]. Group 4: Lithium Market Dynamics - The expiration of mining licenses in the Jiangxi province has raised concerns about potential production halts, with a focus on compliance with new regulations regarding lithium mining [9]. - The influx of lithium ore imports has supported domestic production, with expectations for increased carbon lithium output in the coming months [10]. Group 5: Market Liquidity and Stock Performance - The current market rally is driven by liquidity rather than fundamental support, with the potential for sustained growth as long as liquidity remains abundant [11]. - A comparison of price-to-earnings ratios indicates that A-shares are not overvalued, particularly in the context of the current economic environment [12]. Group 6: Rubber Market Outlook - The rubber market is influenced by weather conditions in Southeast Asia, tire factory operating rates, and inventory levels at Qingdao Port, which are critical indicators for price movements [15][17][18]. Group 7: Gold and Commodity Correlation - The relationship between gold prices and other commodities suggests that rising gold prices may indicate a weakening dollar and increased global liquidity, which could eventually lead to improved demand for other commodities [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - In August, the risk appetite in the capital market increased, and the prices of risk assets generally rose. Overseas, the impact of tariffs in the US began to show, the disappointing non - farm payrolls data shocked the market, and the Fed's policy choices were difficult. The market generally expected a rate cut in September. Domestically, the "anti - involution" market cooled, but A - shares were strong, attracting funds, and the commodity futures market style reversed [5][75]. - The A - share market's strength is due to the change in domestic expectations. After the pessimistic expectations reversed last year, a large amount of funds flowed into the stock market. The emergence of DeepSeek and China's counter - measures in tariff negotiations strengthened market confidence [7][28]. - Weak dollar has become a relatively certain macro - factor. The rate - cut trading based on the weak dollar dominates the pricing of global risk assets [8][68]. Summary by Directory 1. Expected vs. Reality - The most notable macro - issue in August was the unexpectedly strong A - shares, which stemmed from the change in domestic expectations. Asset prices reflect investors' expectations more than the reality. The difference between macro - data and micro - feelings comes from the convergence of expectations and reality [13]. 2. US Stock "Bull" vs. Chinese Real Estate "Bear" - As core assets, the price trends of US stocks and Chinese real estate have significant wealth effects. In the past two years, the bullish US stocks and bearish Chinese real estate had opposite impacts on the two countries [16]. - In the US, the strong consumption of residents is related to the wealth effect of US stocks. In China, the real - estate slump led to residents' de - leveraging and consumption downgrade, while the stock - market strength accelerated the transfer of residents' deposits [17]. 3. Reasons for Expectation Reversal - In September 2024, the Fed started rate - cuts, and China's policy package turned the situation around. In January 2025, the emergence of DeepSeek led to the re - evaluation of Sino - US assets. In April 2025, China's counter - measures in tariff negotiations strengthened domestic confidence. In July 2025, the "anti - involution" trading dominated the domestic market [20]. 4. Underlying Logic of A - share Confidence Bull - Due to the asset shortage, along with the disillusionment of Western myths, technological breakthroughs, and cultural confidence, market confidence was boosted, expectations improved, and undervalued Chinese assets were re - evaluated. Investors adjusted their asset allocation, increasing risk assets [25]. - The strong performance of the stock market changed investors' psychology from scar effect to profit - making effect, leading to the transfer of residents' deposits from physical to financial assets [25]. 5. US 7 - month Non - farm Payrolls Data and Market Reaction - The US non - farm payrolls data in July was disappointing, with an increase of 73,000 in non - farm employment, far lower than the expected 110,000. The unemployment rate was 4.2%, and the U6 unemployment rate was 7.9%. The market reaction included a sharp decline in the dollar index, a jump in non - US currencies, a rise in gold prices, and a slight rebound in US stock index futures. Traders' expectation of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in September by the Fed increased from 45% to 75% [35][37]. 6. Trump's Intervention in the Fed - Trump removed Fed Governor Cook, and there were a series of personnel changes in the Fed. Trump's actions challenged the Fed's independence and may force the Fed to cut rates to respond to political pressure [38][39]. 7. Powell's Speech at Jackson Hole - Powell's speech signaled a possible rate cut. He pointed out that the US labor market was in a "fragile balance" with rising employment risks, economic growth slowed, inflation pressure existed, and the Fed's policy might be adjusted [41][43]. - The Fed revised its monetary policy framework, including abandoning the focus on the effective lower bound, the average inflation target system, and the "employment shortfall" wording, and emphasizing inflation expectation anchoring [59]. 8. Global Asset Performance - In August, global major stock markets mostly rose, the BDI increased slightly, the dollar fell, non - US currencies strengthened, and commodities rose more than they fell. Domestically, the A - share market was strong, and the commodity futures market style reversed [75]. 9. Domestic Futures Market Performance - In August, the domestic futures market showed a pattern of strong stocks, weak bonds, and a cooling commodity market. The four major stock indexes all rose, with the Shanghai 50 rising the least. Commodities showed mixed performance, with the Wind Commodity Index rising slightly [6][78]. 10. Commodity Index Trends - The "anti - involution" market cooled, and commodities fell from high levels. Historically, the probability of the South China Commodity Index rising in September is slightly higher, but the potential probability of a decline is also relatively high [80][83]. 11. Stock Index Performance - In August, the stock market continued to rise strongly, with all major stock indexes closing higher. The price - to - earnings ratio of the four major stock indexes increased, and the risk premium decreased, indicating an optimistic market sentiment [87]. 12. Global Economic Performance - The global economic sentiment recovered but was split. The JPMorgan Global Composite PMI rebounded, but the service and manufacturing sectors diverged. The ZEW economic sentiment index of major economies declined, while the consumer confidence index was generally strong [92]. - Inflation in major economies rebounded, with the US having a larger inflation amplitude. The inflation expectations in the bond market increased [103]. - The Fed and the Bank of Japan continued to shrink their balance sheets, the European Central Bank shifted from expanding to shrinking its balance sheet, and the People's Bank of China expanded its balance sheet again [105]. 13. US Economic Performance - The US economic sentiment cooled, inflation rebounded, the manufacturing PMI remained in the contraction range, employment was challenged, and consumer confidence was still low. The impact of tariffs on inflation began to show [111]. 14. Chinese Economic Performance - In July, China's manufacturing PMI and non - manufacturing business activity index declined, but the overall business activities of enterprises remained in the expansion range [116]. - M2 and M1 growth rates increased, and the growth rate difference between M2 and social financing and M2 and M1 both narrowed. The growth rate of RMB loans hit a new low, and the deposit - loan gap of financial institutions widened [119]. - The recovery of M1 growth is expected to drive the start of the credit cycle, with loose financial conditions, rising inter - bank certificate of deposit rates, and a rebound in DR007 [124]. - China's export growth remained resilient, but the pressure on external demand still existed. The export price profit margin turned negative, and the market's expectations for the economic prospects were contradictory [128][130]. - Real estate investment was dragged down, with the decline rates of multiple indicators accelerating, and the high - frequency housing sales data remained sluggish [132]. - Consumption growth declined significantly, travel data was split, and residents' income growth was weak [138]. - CPI remained flat, PPI continued to decline, and the macro - profit margin (CPI - PPI) decreased. The continuation of "anti - involution" may promote domestic re - inflation [142]. 15. Mid - level Industry Performance - Steel prices rose and then fell, with stable blast - furnace operating rates; oil prices declined with inventory reduction; copper prices fluctuated at high levels with inventory accumulation; and coking coal prices rebounded from the bottom [146][147]. - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fluctuated narrowly at a historical high; domestic freight rates continued to decline, and the BDI fluctuated after an initial decline; and automobile production growth was stable [150].