Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - After the important meeting, steel production is expected to increase, with the output of blast furnace rebar and hot-rolled coils likely to rebound quickly. Pig iron production will rise, reaching over 2.3 million tons by the end of March to early April. The macro environment is relatively loose, and the trends of rebar and hot-rolled coils at the industrial level depend more on the quality of demand and the game between expectations and reality. It is expected that there is still room for an upward trend. For iron ore, short-term rumors may disrupt the market, but it should be viewed rationally. As pig iron production rebounds, the incremental demand for iron ore is relatively certain. Although port inventories have increased, steel mill inventories are low, and there is a high possibility of active restocking by steel mills later, with the inventory consumption ratio tending to decline. It is expected that the trend will still be bullish, but technically, it may fill the gap in the short term [1][2] Summary by Directory Market Review - On Friday, rebar, hot-rolled coils, and iron ore opened higher with a gap. RB2605 closed at 3142, up 0.58%. It closed down at night [1] Important Information - The draft report on the national economic and social development plan for 2026 was released, which mentioned continuing to promote the quality improvement, cost reduction, and carbon reduction actions in key industries in 2026, including strengthening capacity governance in key industries, promoting supply-demand balance and stability in key industries such as steel, non-ferrous metals, building materials, petrochemicals, and chemicals, and orderly reducing the capacity of industries such as steel and refining [1] - According to data from the China Iron and Steel Association, in the first ten days of March 2026, key steel enterprises produced 20.11 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.011 million tons, a 0.8% decrease from the previous ten days. The steel inventory was 17.81 million tons, a 2.7% increase from the previous ten days [1] - Last week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports nationwide was 179.4732 million tons, a 524,900-ton increase from the previous week; the total inventory at 45 ports was 171.8752 million tons, a 696,600-ton increase from the previous week [1] - Last week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at steel mills nationwide was 89.291 million tons, a 824,700-ton decrease from the previous week [1] Market Logic - Last week, the production, inventory, and apparent demand of rebar all increased. The production increased significantly, with a weekly increase of 219,900 tons. The inventory continued to accumulate, but the accumulation speed slowed down significantly. The apparent demand of rebar increased by 785,800 tons, indicating that the demand for rebar has started. Overall, the current inventory pressure of rebar is not large [1] - For hot-rolled coils, the production last week was 2.9526 million tons, a 58,500-ton decrease from the previous week, and it has been declining for two consecutive weeks. The total inventory was 4.7159 million tons, a 1,000-ton decrease from the previous week. The factory inventory was 892,800 tons, a 8,000-ton decrease from the previous week, and the social inventory was 3.8231 million tons, a 7,000-ton increase from the previous week. The factory inventory decreased, and the social inventory increased slightly, with the total inventory remaining basically unchanged. The apparent demand was 2.9536 million tons, a 137,900-ton increase from the previous week, almost the same as the production, indicating a tight supply-demand balance for hot-rolled coils [1] - The daily pig iron production last week was 2.212 million tons, a 63,900-ton decrease from the previous week. The production limit during the Two Sessions was an important factor, and it will increase later [1] Trading Strategies - After the important meeting, steel production is expected to increase, and pig iron production will rise to over 2.3 million tons by the end of March to early April. The macro environment is relatively loose, and the trends of rebar and hot-rolled coils at the industrial level depend more on the quality of demand and the game between expectations and reality. It is expected that there is still room for an upward trend. For iron ore, short-term rumors may disrupt the market, but it should be viewed rationally. As pig iron production rebounds, the incremental demand for iron ore is relatively certain. Although port inventories have increased, steel mill inventories are low, and there is a high possibility of active restocking by steel mills later, with the inventory consumption ratio tending to decline. It is expected that the trend will still be bullish, but technically, it may fill the gap in the short term [1][2] - The support level for the rebar main contract is 3000, and the pressure level is 3200. The support level for the hot-rolled coil is 3180, and the pressure level is 3350. The support level for the iron ore main contract is 750, and the pressure level is 840 [2] - For single-sided trading, continue to hold long positions in steel and iron ore, and continuously raise the stop-loss line. For arbitrage, continue to hold the strategy of going long on the hot-rolled coil - rebar spread, with a suggested stop-loss level of 120 for the spread and a take-profit level of 200. The rebar - iron ore ratio has dropped below 4 and may continue to decline. Wait for trading opportunities to go long on the rebar - iron ore ratio [2]