| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | JM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1006.00 | +80.00↑ | J主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1603.00 | +85.00↑ | | | JM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 812627.00 | -24982.00↓ | J期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 55868.00 | +1306.00↑ | | | 焦煤前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | -83710.00 | +87.00↑ | 焦炭前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | -3829.00 | +99.00↑ | | | JM1-9月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 50.00 | +0.50↑ | J1-9月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 51.00 | +6.00↑ | | | 焦煤仓单（日，张） | 0.00 | -500.00↓ | 焦炭仓单（日，张） | 760.00 | 0.00 | | | 干其毛都蒙5原煤（日，元/吨） | 757.00 | ...

研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 热轧卷板产业链日报 2025/7/21 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | HC 主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,394 | +84↑ HC 主力合约持仓量(手) | 1600476 | +4222↑ | | | HC 合约前20名净持仓(手) | -61,951 | -27581↓ HC10-1合约价差(元/吨) | -16 | -6↓ | | | HC 上期所仓单日报(日，吨) | 60454 | -293↓ HC2510-RB2510合约价差(元/吨) | 170 | +7↑ | | | 杭州 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,440.00 | +80.00↑ 广州 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,430.00 | +80.00↑ | | 现货市场 | 武汉 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,450.00 | +80.00↑ 天津 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3, ...

研究报告 螺纹周报 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 行情回顾：上周螺纹 2510 合约上涨 0.45%，周五 夜盘上涨 1.3%。 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 黑色板块研究员：魏云 期货从业资格证号：F3024460 投资咨询资格证号：Z0013724 电话：0931-8894545 邮箱：497976013@qq.com 报告日期：2025 年 7 月 21 日星期一 基本面： 7 月 15 日，中国钢铁工业协会在成都组 织召开钢铁工业规划部长会，与会代表提出了以下建 议：坚持严控增量与畅通退出。按照"严控增量、优化 存量、兼并重组、畅通退出"工作方针，研究建立产能 治理新机制，防范钢铁行业产能过剩风险持续加剧，着 力破除"内卷式"竞争，维护钢铁行业健康有序的生存 和发展环境。上周 Mysteel 调研 247 家钢厂高炉开工率 83.46%，环比增加 0.31%，同比增加 0.83%；高炉炼铁 产能利用率 90.89%，环比增加 0.99%，同比增加 1.27%； 钢厂盈利率 60.17%，环比增加 0.43%，同比增加 28.14%； 日均铁水产量 242. ...

民生证券指出，在稳增长、"反内卷"等政策的推动下，尾部产能面临竞争压力，粗钢供给有望进一步 优化，叠加远期铁矿新增产能的逐步释放，钢企盈利能力有望修复。 信达证券指出，未来钢铁行业产业格局有望稳中趋好，叠加当前部分公司已经处于价值低估区域，现 阶段仍具结构性投资机遇，尤其是拥有较高毛利率水平的优特钢企业和成本管控力度强、具备规模效 应的龙头钢企，未来存在估值修复的机会，维持行业"看好"评级。 7月21日，钢铁板块持续拉升，截至发稿，西宁特钢、八一钢铁、柳钢股份涨停，重庆钢铁涨超 9%，山东钢铁、华菱钢铁等跟涨。 中钢协7月15日在成都组织召开钢铁工业规划部长会，与会代表围绕《钢铁工业"十五五"发展规划研 究》报告，为进一步做好规划编制工作提出意见建议。其中包括：坚持严控增量与畅通退出，按 照"严控增量、优化存量、兼并重组、畅通退出"工作方针，研究建立产能治理新机制，防范钢铁行业 产能过剩风险持续加剧，着力破除"内卷式"竞争，维护钢铁行业健康有序的生存和发展环境等。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide overall industry investment ratings. However, it gives trend intensities and price trends for various commodities: - **Iron Ore**: Macro - expectations support, with a bias towards strong and volatile trends. Trend intensity is 1 [4][5]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Market sentiment remains high, with wide - range fluctuations. Trend intensity is 0 [8][9][11]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: The market trading atmosphere is strong, with wide - range fluctuations. Trend intensity is 0 [13][15]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coke has one round of price increase implemented, with a bias towards strong and volatile trends; coking coal shows a bias towards strong and volatile trends. Trend intensities are 0 for coke and 1 for coking coal [16][18]. - **Steam Coal**: Daily consumption recovers, with stable and volatile trends. Trend intensity is 0 [20][23]. - **Logs**: Wide - range fluctuations. Trend intensity is 1 [24][27]. 2. Core Viewpoints The report analyzes the fundamentals, price trends, and macro - industry news of various black - series commodities, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, silicon iron, manganese silicon, coke, coking coal, steam coal, and logs. It provides price trends and trend intensities for each commodity, helping investors understand the market situation and potential investment opportunities. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of iron ore closed at 785.0 yuan/ton, down 0.5 yuan/ton (- 0.06%). The trading volume was 692,666 lots, a decrease of 10,578 lots. Imported ore prices showed some fluctuations, with the price of 65% Carajás fines rising by 3.0 yuan/ton [4]. - **Macro - industry News**: The China Iron and Steel Association organized a meeting to discuss the "15th Five - Year Plan for the Iron and Steel Industry" to prevent over - capacity risks [5]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: The RB2510 contract of rebar closed at 3,147 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan/ton (0.74%); the HC2510 contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3,310 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton (0.91%). Spot prices in different regions showed varying degrees of increase [9]. - **Macro - industry News**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will implement a new round of steady - growth work plans for key industries. Steel production and inventory data showed some changes, and export volume decreased in June [10][11]. Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon - **Fundamentals**: The silicon iron 2509 contract closed at 5,508 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan; the manganese silicon 2509 contract closed at 5,804 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. Spot prices also had corresponding changes [13]. - **Macro - industry News**: There were price quotes and procurement price information for silicon iron and manganese silicon in different regions, and manganese ore inventory changed [14][15]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: The JM2509 contract of coking coal closed at 926 yuan/ton, up 7.5 yuan (0.82%); the J2509 contract of coke closed at 1,518 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan (- 0.07%). Spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions showed different trends [16]. - **Macro - industry News**: There were price quotes for coking coal in northern ports and changes in the CCI metallurgical coal index [16][17]. Steam Coal - **Fundamentals**: The ZC2507 contract of steam coal had no trading volume. Southern port and domestic origin prices were provided, and the long - short positions of the top 20 members remained unchanged [21][22]. Logs - **Fundamentals**: The 2509 contract of logs closed at 828.5 yuan/ton, down 0.5% from the previous day. The trading volume and open interest of different contracts showed different trends, and the prices of various log products in the spot market remained stable [25]. - **Macro - industry News**: The Central Urban Work Conference was held [27].

中日钢铁企业竞争格局变化的背后，是国内钢铁行业结构性过剩，集中度难提升，以及技术水平不断提高交织的现实。不过，国内一些钢厂和相关监管部 门，已在为真正竞争力的提高作出改变。 近日，刚刚完成收购美国钢铁的日本制铁CEO桥本英二在接受媒体采访时提到，中国钢铁企业的利润只有日本制铁的几分之一，并称"由于中国的低价攻 势，钢铁制造商目前正处于非常困难的境地"。 情况真的是这样吗？第一财经记者查阅了中日主要钢铁企业2024年的财务报告，发现日本制铁在去年一年的归母净利润为3502亿日元（约合人民币169亿 元）。 而在2024年，中国最赚钱的前五大上市钢铁企业，净利润分别为73.62亿元（宝钢股份），51.26亿元（中信特钢），22.61亿元（南钢股份），20.32亿元（华 菱钢铁），14.9亿元（久立特材）。 中日钢铁企业竞争格局变化的背后，是国内钢铁行业结构性过剩，集中度难提升，以及技术水平不断提高交织的现实。不过，国内一些钢厂和相关监管部 门，已在为真正竞争力的提高作出改变。 利润差距来自哪 日本制铁的前身是于1897年建成的官营八幡制铁所，2019年4月1日，原新日铁（日本最大钢铁企业）、日铁日新制钢等多家公司 ...

金十期货7月18日讯，7月15日，中国钢铁工业协会在成都组织召开钢铁工业规划部长会，与会代表提出 了以下建议：一是坚持严控增量与畅通退出。按照"严控增量、优化存量、兼并重组、畅通退出"工作方 针，研究建立产能治理新机制，防范钢铁行业产能过剩风险持续加剧，着力破除"内卷式"竞争，维护钢 铁行业健康有序的生存和发展环境。二是注重数据治理与政策协同。强化政策连续性与严肃性，严格落 实粗钢产量调控工作有关部署，强化监督检查，努力维护钢铁行业供需动态平衡。三是有序推进短流程 电炉炼钢发展。四是加快推广钢结构建筑产业链协同发展。五是拓展国际化发展视野。 （中钢协） 相关链接 钢铁工业规划部长会：坚持严控增量与畅通退出，着力破除"内卷式"竞争 ...

4月29日，中国钢铁工业协会召开一季度新闻发布会，据中钢协初步统计，一季度，重点统计会员钢铁 企业累计营业收入为14360亿元，同比下降6.61%；营业成本为13505亿元，同比下降7.73%；利润总额 215.83亿元，同比增长1.08倍；平均利润率为1.50%，同比上升0.82个百分点，企业效益有所改善。 钢材库存同比下降，处于近年同期低位。3月下旬，协会重点统计钢铁企业钢材库存量约1523万吨，同 比下降17.4%；21个城市5大品种钢材社会库存量为1036万吨，同比下降24.6%。 中国钢铁工业协会副会长兼秘书长姜维表示，一季度，钢铁行业生产经营基本稳定，得益于一二月份企 业控产较好，效益同比有所改善，为全年向好发展奠定了坚实基础。 "3月份以来钢铁供给较快增长而需求下降，打破了来之不易、十分脆弱的市场供需动态平衡，市场供大 于求的态势未变，行业自律仍需加强。"姜维说。 在此背景下，构建钢铁行业产能治理新机制尤为关键。"建立产能治理新机制是解决行业供需矛盾的关 键。"中国钢铁工业协会规划发展部主任王滨表示，钢铁协会一直积极呼吁并组织行业和企业共同研 究，积极推动建立完善既有能耗碳排放政策约束，又有行业 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Steel Futures Weekly Report [1][8] - Report Date: March 31, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This week, steel prices rose first and then fell, with the average national rebar price increasing by 34 yuan/ton week-on-week. The market's expectation of production cuts increased, boosting sentiment, but due to poor demand persistence, prices slightly declined. Next week, inventory will continue to fall, and there is an expectation of restocking in the spot market before the Tomb-Sweeping Festival [2][4]. - Entering April, steel demand will gradually peak while supply expansion pressure remains, and market sentiment is still cautious. In the short term, the steel market supply and demand are generally balanced. Without major positive policies, steel prices may fluctuate [21]. Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Market Review - Steel prices rose first and then fell, with the average national rebar price increasing by 34 yuan/ton week-on-week. Affected by the active production cuts of Xinjiang steel mills, the market's expectation of production cuts increased, and the spot market saw both volume and price increase. However, due to poor demand persistence, prices slightly declined. Next week, inventory will continue to fall, and there is an expectation of restocking in the spot market [2][4]. 2. Macro and Industry News - On March 23, Premier Li Qiang stated that more proactive macro - policies will be implemented, and counter - cyclical adjustment efforts will be further increased [6]. - On March 24, the Ministry of Finance announced that the 2025 fiscal policy will be more proactive, supporting the expansion of domestic demand [6]. - The vice - secretary of the China Iron and Steel Association said that the imbalance between supply and demand is the main contradiction in the industry, and establishing a new capacity governance mechanism is the key [6]. - From January to February, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size was 910.99 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%. The profit of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry was - 1.55 billion yuan [6]. - As of March 24, the number of national automobile trade - in applications exceeded 1.5 million, and the number of home appliance and electric bicycle trade - ins also increased significantly [6]. - In April, the production schedule of household air conditioners is 24 million units, a 9.1% increase year - on - year; the production schedule of refrigerators is 8.09 million units, a 6.7% decrease year - on - year; the production schedule of washing machines is 7.4 million units, a 1.4% increase year - on - year [7]. - In mid - March 2025, key steel enterprises' average daily production of crude steel, pig iron, and steel increased by 1.6%, 2.1%, and 5.3% respectively [7]. 3. Fundamental Analysis - According to Mysteel's survey of 237 mainstream traders, the average daily trading volume of building materials from Monday to Friday this week was 115,000 tons, higher than last week's 105,100 tons. The trading volume in the northern region increased significantly due to improved construction conditions [10]. 4. Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - Entering April, steel demand will gradually peak, and supply expansion pressure remains. Market sentiment is still cautious. In the short term, the steel market supply and demand are generally balanced. Without major positive policies, steel prices may fluctuate [21]. - Investment Strategy: For single - side trading, focus on range operations; for inter - period arbitrage, mainly wait and see; for the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar, take profits; for steel profits, mainly wait and see [2][21]