Core Viewpoint - In the first half of 2025, insurance funds are expected to accelerate their allocation to dividend stocks, with listed companies increasing their allocation by nearly 320 billion yuan, surpassing the total allocation for the previous year [1] Group 1: Investment Strategy - Due to the continuous decline in cash returns, insurance funds are increasingly relying on dividend investments, although rising valuations and declining dividend yields pose challenges to this strategy [1] - The dividend investment strategy for insurance funds may have transitioned from the "buy and buy" phase (1.0) to a more selective and balanced phase (2.0), focusing on obtaining stable cash returns while reducing the probability of capital losses [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - With valuations having significantly increased, the opportunities for insurance funds to heavily invest in dividend stocks are diminishing, leading to a narrowing selection of dividend stocks [1] - It is estimated that the entire industry is still under-allocated to dividend stocks by 800 billion to 1.6 trillion yuan, which may be completed in the next two to three years [1] Group 3: Recommendations - It is recommended to focus on companies with resilient balance sheets and balanced growth [1]

证券研究报告 保险 险资红利策略 2.0 华泰研究 2025 年 10 月 24 日│中国内地 专题研究 战略上坚持，战术上灵活 1H25 险资加速配置红利股，上市公司增配红利股近 3200 亿元，超过去年 全年增配规模。由于现金收益持续下降，险资仍不得不倚重红利投资，但红 利股估值抬升和股息率下降对险资红利策略形成挑战。险资红利策略可能已 经告别"买买买"的 1.0 阶段，进入精挑细选、左右平衡的 2.0 阶段，需要 在获取稳定现金收益的同时降低资本亏损概率，同时需要考虑是否止盈以及 跌价风险。在估值已经明显抬升之后，险资集中加仓红利股的机会正在减少， 可选红利股范围逐渐收窄。我们估计目前全行业仍然欠配红利股 0.8-1.6 万 亿人民币左右，或在未来两三年内完成配置。建议关注资产负债表有韧性、 均衡增长的中国平安 A/H、中国太保 A/H、中国人寿 A/H、中国人保 A。 红利策略或步入新阶段 受制于刚性负债成本居高难下，险资需要尽力维持现金投资收益。由于利息 贡献不足，险资不得不求诸股息，这是险资红利策略的来源。在低利率背景 下，增配红利股仍然是险资长期目标。但短期看，红利股估值上升推高了跌 价风险，股 ...