11月28日，2025分析师大会暨第七届新浪财经"金麒麟"最佳分析师颁奖盛典隆重召开。浙商证券首席经 济学家、研究所联席所长李超团队获得宏观经济第一名。 李超发表了对2026年中国经济与资本市场的前瞻性看法。作为"十五五"的开局之年，李超认为，2026年 的核心关键词是"高质量发展"，而理解未来的政策与经济演进，必须基于他率先提出的"四层次分析框 架"。 专题：2025分析师大会：资本市场"奥斯卡"启幕 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 投资主线：紧扣"利率下行"，动态配置科技与红利 在乐观的预期下，具体的投资方向变得清晰。李超指出，市场看好的核心就是受益于利率下行的品种， 主要集中在两大方向： 科技股： 利率下行使得投资者更愿意为长远的未来现金流定价，从而大幅提升科技股的估值天花板。 这类资产偏好高风险偏好环境。 红利股： 当债券票息过低时，稳定分红且股息率具有吸引力的股票将成为优质的替代品，享受价值重 估。这类资产在低风险偏好下更具防御性。 理解中国的核心："四层次分析框架" 李超强调，分析中国经济必须跳出单一的经济增长视角。他提出了一个更为立体的决策分析框架。第一 ...

证券研究报告 保险 险资红利策略 2.0 华泰研究 2025 年 10 月 24 日│中国内地 专题研究 战略上坚持，战术上灵活 1H25 险资加速配置红利股，上市公司增配红利股近 3200 亿元，超过去年 全年增配规模。由于现金收益持续下降，险资仍不得不倚重红利投资，但红 利股估值抬升和股息率下降对险资红利策略形成挑战。险资红利策略可能已 经告别"买买买"的 1.0 阶段，进入精挑细选、左右平衡的 2.0 阶段，需要 在获取稳定现金收益的同时降低资本亏损概率，同时需要考虑是否止盈以及 跌价风险。在估值已经明显抬升之后，险资集中加仓红利股的机会正在减少， 可选红利股范围逐渐收窄。我们估计目前全行业仍然欠配红利股 0.8-1.6 万 亿人民币左右，或在未来两三年内完成配置。建议关注资产负债表有韧性、 均衡增长的中国平安 A/H、中国太保 A/H、中国人寿 A/H、中国人保 A。 红利策略或步入新阶段 受制于刚性负债成本居高难下，险资需要尽力维持现金投资收益。由于利息 贡献不足，险资不得不求诸股息，这是险资红利策略的来源。在低利率背景 下，增配红利股仍然是险资长期目标。但短期看，红利股估值上升推高了跌 价风险，股 ...

Market Performance Review - In June, major stock indices all rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 2.29%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 3.37%, and the ChiNext Index by 6.58% [13] - The financial and growth styles led the market, while the stable style declined by 0.36% [13] - The TMT and financial sectors showed significant gains, with the communication sector rising by 11.97% and non-bank financials by 8.84% [17] Market Sentiment Analysis - Since the market rally began on September 24, 2024, retail investor sentiment has played a dominant role, but this sentiment has declined since May 2025 [4][20] - The report suggests that retail sentiment will remain within a normal fluctuation range, and a rally driven by retail investors is not expected in the near term [4][20] Future Outlook and Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of waiting for the outcome of the US tariff negotiations, which will set the tone for July [5][27] - If the US does not reach an agreement with other countries, the A-share market may focus on internal fundamentals [5][27] - The recommendation is to hold dividend stocks while waiting for uncertainties to resolve, rather than making premature investments [6][28] - If the US reaches an agreement at the expense of Chinese interests, defensive dividend stocks will remain a preferred choice [6][28]

Group 1: Market Overview - The market is expected to enter a phase where macro factors become less disruptive, with domestic policies emphasizing a "stable and active capital market" [1] - The macroeconomic environment is likely to remain stable, with reduced uncertainties from overseas factors, particularly regarding U.S. tariff policies [1][2] - The market is anticipated to maintain a range-bound fluctuation, with dividend stocks being a preferred choice for low-risk investors [1][3] Group 2: Sector Insights - The AI healthcare sector shows resilience, with ongoing positive developments despite a weak correlation with the broader healthcare market [2] - The innovative drug sector has seen unexpected strength, but there is an anticipated increase in market scrutiny regarding the fundamentals of these companies [3] - The military industry, particularly upstream targets, may experience a valuation shift due to improved recognition of domestic and foreign demand for advanced weaponry [4][5] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Focus on identifying structural opportunities within cyclical sectors, such as rare metals and agriculture, which may show fundamental changes [6] - High-dividend assets remain attractive in a liquidity-rich environment, with expectations of declining insurance policy rates and increasing dividend payout ratios [7] - The market may stabilize in June, with potential risks from external factors, but the focus will remain on sectors with independent growth logic [8][9]

Group 1 - The current market sentiment is pessimistic, leading to losses for many investors who fail to manage their strategies effectively [3][5] - The market is characterized as a game of counterparties, where those lacking independent thinking and trading systems are likely to incur losses [3][5] - Investors who are overly pessimistic at market lows may miss out on gains and subsequently chase prices at market highs, resulting in losses [3][5] Group 2 - Large funds are not exiting the market but are instead consolidating, with significant market capitalization in bank stocks showing low trading volumes [5][6] - The upward movement of the market index is primarily driven by heavyweight industries rather than the remaining 5,000 companies [5][6] - The Shanghai Composite Index is statistically driven by market capitalization, with bank stocks heavily influencing its performance [5][6] Group 3 - The Shanghai Composite Index is expected to experience a slow upward trend, with a focus on large-cap stocks rather than individual stock selection [6][8] - The market is anticipated to remain in a bottoming phase, with a potential for gradual recovery rather than a sharp increase [6][8] - Holding the Shanghai Composite Index may yield positive returns, with potential gains of 5-10% through ETF quantitative strategies [6][8] Group 4 - Many investors overestimate their ability to outperform professional investors, lacking self-awareness regarding their investment capabilities [8] - Acknowledging one's limitations in stock selection can lead to a more realistic investment approach [8]