证券研究报告 保险 险资红利策略 2.0 华泰研究 2025 年 10 月 24 日│中国内地 专题研究 战略上坚持，战术上灵活 1H25 险资加速配置红利股，上市公司增配红利股近 3200 亿元，超过去年 全年增配规模。由于现金收益持续下降，险资仍不得不倚重红利投资，但红 利股估值抬升和股息率下降对险资红利策略形成挑战。险资红利策略可能已 经告别"买买买"的 1.0 阶段，进入精挑细选、左右平衡的 2.0 阶段，需要 在获取稳定现金收益的同时降低资本亏损概率，同时需要考虑是否止盈以及 跌价风险。在估值已经明显抬升之后，险资集中加仓红利股的机会正在减少， 可选红利股范围逐渐收窄。我们估计目前全行业仍然欠配红利股 0.8-1.6 万 亿人民币左右，或在未来两三年内完成配置。建议关注资产负债表有韧性、 均衡增长的中国平安 A/H、中国太保 A/H、中国人寿 A/H、中国人保 A。 红利策略或步入新阶段 受制于刚性负债成本居高难下，险资需要尽力维持现金投资收益。由于利息 贡献不足，险资不得不求诸股息，这是险资红利策略的来源。在低利率背景 下，增配红利股仍然是险资长期目标。但短期看，红利股估值上升推高了跌 价风险，股 ...

Market Performance Review - In June, major stock indices all rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 2.29%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 3.37%, and the ChiNext Index by 6.58% [13] - The financial and growth styles led the market, while the stable style declined by 0.36% [13] - The TMT and financial sectors showed significant gains, with the communication sector rising by 11.97% and non-bank financials by 8.84% [17] Market Sentiment Analysis - Since the market rally began on September 24, 2024, retail investor sentiment has played a dominant role, but this sentiment has declined since May 2025 [4][20] - The report suggests that retail sentiment will remain within a normal fluctuation range, and a rally driven by retail investors is not expected in the near term [4][20] Future Outlook and Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of waiting for the outcome of the US tariff negotiations, which will set the tone for July [5][27] - If the US does not reach an agreement with other countries, the A-share market may focus on internal fundamentals [5][27] - The recommendation is to hold dividend stocks while waiting for uncertainties to resolve, rather than making premature investments [6][28] - If the US reaches an agreement at the expense of Chinese interests, defensive dividend stocks will remain a preferred choice [6][28]

Group 1: Market Overview - The market is expected to enter a phase where macro factors become less disruptive, with domestic policies emphasizing a "stable and active capital market" [1] - The macroeconomic environment is likely to remain stable, with reduced uncertainties from overseas factors, particularly regarding U.S. tariff policies [1][2] - The market is anticipated to maintain a range-bound fluctuation, with dividend stocks being a preferred choice for low-risk investors [1][3] Group 2: Sector Insights - The AI healthcare sector shows resilience, with ongoing positive developments despite a weak correlation with the broader healthcare market [2] - The innovative drug sector has seen unexpected strength, but there is an anticipated increase in market scrutiny regarding the fundamentals of these companies [3] - The military industry, particularly upstream targets, may experience a valuation shift due to improved recognition of domestic and foreign demand for advanced weaponry [4][5] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Focus on identifying structural opportunities within cyclical sectors, such as rare metals and agriculture, which may show fundamental changes [6] - High-dividend assets remain attractive in a liquidity-rich environment, with expectations of declining insurance policy rates and increasing dividend payout ratios [7] - The market may stabilize in June, with potential risks from external factors, but the focus will remain on sectors with independent growth logic [8][9]

一周的行情结束了，上证指数的回调已经让悲观的人更悲观了。大多数人因为不相信行情而错过大涨，又因为不甘心而追涨。 在股市，任何一种策略与筹码都是对手盘游戏，有人亏损才会有人盈利。亏损的人不反思自己的行为，只会抱怨策略与筹码。个人觉得目前的行情没有问 题，因为我们挣利润了。 对于接下来的行情，分享几个自己的策略，与同频的指数基金、价值投资玩家讨论下。 第一，情绪悲观了 大多数人之所以亏损，是因为自己驾驭不了行情，并不是行情有问题。中小盘股票也好，银行股也罢，都是对手盘游戏，没有自己独立思维与交易体系的 人，参与任何筹码都会亏损。 如果在底部悲观的人，大概率会踏空行情，因为踏空而不甘心，会选择在顶部追涨。哪怕是小凡的策略持有大盘指数，如果你追涨在3600点以上，同样是亏 损，不影响别人3000点以下囤货的人。 这个位置的A股，在3600点以上都敢追涨，2~3万亿成交量，目前却又不相信行情了。跌了，会比涨了的风险更高吗？ 第二，行情已经明牌了 大资金没有出货，只是盘整行情！10万亿市值的银行股只有200亿的成交量，如何出货？大资金增持宽基ETF最多，公募基金也调仓到红利股，靠日内200亿 的成交量出货，大家的认知退化 ...