1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the inventory of the five major steel products slightly decreased by 11,600 tons to 1.3365 million tons, marking the fourth consecutive week of slight decline. Social inventory increased month - on - month, while steel mill inventory reached the lowest level since the Spring Festival. Specifically, the social inventory of rebar increased by 28,100 tons, the steel mill inventory decreased by 74,300 tons, the weekly output increased by 29,000 tons, and the apparent demand rebounded by 5% or 104,100 tons to 2.1658 million tons. The output of hot - rolled coils decreased, but the inventory increased, and the apparent demand decreased by 2.64% or 85,500 tons to 3.1524 million tons. In addition, the apparent demand for wire rods and cold - rolled coils decreased by more than 2%, and the apparent demand for medium - thick plates slightly increased [2]. - Currently, the industrial logic accounts for a relatively low proportion, and policy expectations dominate the market. Driven by the "anti - involution" and the "Yarlung Zangbo River Project", coupled with the cost support of raw materials due to the "rectification of over - producing coal mines", steel prices will consolidate at a high level in the short term. The upward trend remains unchanged, but the momentum has slowed down. In the later stage, attention should be focused on policy developments [2]. - In the short term, the market will fluctuate and consolidate, while in the long term, the upward trend remains unchanged [2]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Market Review and Price Performance 3.1.1 Futures and Spot Market Trends - Futures market: This week, the main rebar contract RB2510 rose significantly, closing at 3,294 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 161 yuan/ton. The open interest was 1.9064 million lots, a decrease of 220,000 lots. The main hot - rolled coil contract HC2510 also rose significantly, closing at 3,456 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 164 yuan/ton. The open interest was 1.5078 million lots, a decrease of 102,400 lots [5]. - Spot market: This week, the spot price of rebar shifted upwards. As of July 24, the price of HRB400E 20MM in Beijing increased by 160 yuan/ton to 3,330 yuan/ton compared with last week. The spot price of hot - rolled coils also shifted upwards. As of July 24, the price of Benxi Steel 5.75*1500*C:Q235B in Tianjin increased by 200 yuan/ton to 3,400 yuan/ton compared with last week [6]. 3.1.2 Spread Changes - Futures - spot spread: This week, the basis of the main rebar contract RB2510 compared with the HRB400E 20MM spot in Shanghai was 86 yuan/ton, a change of - 17 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. The basis of the main hot - rolled coil contract HC2510 compared with the 5.5*1500*C:Q235B:Ansteel spot in Shanghai was 14 yuan/ton, a change of - 16 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [10]. - Inter - monthly spread: This week, the spread between RB2601 and RB2510 was 59 yuan/ton, a change of + 15 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. The spread between HC2601 and HC2510 was 16 yuan/ton, a change of + 6 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [11]. - Rebar - hot - rolled coil spread: This week, the spread between HC2510 and RB2510 was 162 yuan/ton, a change of - 1 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. The spread between HC2601 and RB2601 was 119 yuan/ton, a change of - 10 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [12]. 3.2 Supply and Demand Analysis 3.2.1 Supply - This week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills surveyed by Mysteel was 83.46%, unchanged from last week and 1.13 percentage points higher than last year. The profitability rate of steel mills was 63.64%, 3.47 percentage points higher than last week and 48.49 percentage points higher than last year. The daily average pig iron output decreased by 2,100 tons to 2.4223 million tons compared with last week, but still had a year - on - year increase of 26,200 tons [19]. - The weekly output of the five major steel products totaled 866,970 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,220 tons. The effect of the "anti - involution" policy signal is gradually emerging [19]. 3.2.2 Demand - Recently, the State Council approved the Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project with a total investment of 1.2 trillion yuan, which will boost the future demand for steel in infrastructure. In addition, there are signs of easing in Sino - US trade frictions and expectations of future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The implementation of the off - season logic in the future is expected to be less smooth, and demand will maintain a certain level of resilience [28]. 3.2.3 Inventory - This week, the social inventory of steel products in major cities across the country was 9.2708 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 49,700 tons. The inventory of steel mills by variety was 409,420 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 61,300 tons. The total inventory of social and steel mills was 1.3365 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11,600 tons. The overall inventory is at a low level compared with the same period, and steel mills have significantly reduced their inventory, transferring it downstream, continuing a certain de - stocking trend [35]. 3.2.4 Profit - This week, the profitability rate of 247 steel mills continued to increase to 63.64%, reaching a nine - month high. The blast furnace operating rate and iron - making capacity utilization rate increased slightly, reaching 83.46% and 90.81% respectively. The daily average pig iron output decreased by 2,100 tons to 2.4223 million tons, but the year - on - year increase still reached 1.09% [46]. - This week, the spot price of steel products increased significantly. Most electric arc furnace steel mills turned losses into profits, and the production enthusiasm of electric arc furnaces increased. They gradually resumed production and increased output, resulting in a significant increase in the operating rate and capacity utilization rate. As of July 24, the average operating rate of 87 independent electric arc furnace steel mills across the country increased by 6.94% to 72.02%, reaching a six - week high [46]. 3.2.5 Raw Material Prices - This week, affected by domestic policies, the prices of major raw materials generally shifted upwards. The price of Tangshan billet increased from 3,025 yuan/ton to 3,753 yuan/ton, and the price of 61.5% PB powder increased by 10 yuan/ton to 790 yuan/ton [56]. 3.3 Summary and Investment Suggestions - This week, the inventory of the five major steel products slightly decreased by 11,600 tons to 1.3365 million tons, marking the fourth consecutive week of slight decline. Social inventory increased month - on - month, while steel mill inventory reached the lowest level since the Spring Festival. Specifically, the social inventory of rebar increased by 28,100 tons, the steel mill inventory decreased by 74,300 tons, the weekly output increased by 29,000 tons, and the apparent demand rebounded by 5% or 104,100 tons to 2.1658 million tons. The output of hot - rolled coils decreased, but the inventory increased, and the apparent demand decreased by 2.64% or 85,500 tons to 3.1524 million tons. In addition, the apparent demand for wire rods and cold - rolled coils decreased by more than 2%, and the apparent demand for medium - thick plates slightly increased [59]. - Currently, the industrial logic accounts for a relatively low proportion, and policy expectations dominate the market. Driven by the "anti - involution" and the "Yarlung Zangbo River Project", coupled with the cost support of raw materials due to the "rectification of over - producing coal mines", steel prices will consolidate at a high level in the short term. The upward trend remains unchanged, but the momentum has slowed down. In the later stage, attention should be focused on policy developments [59].