集装箱运价期货
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集运日报:SCFIS持续涨势,运价区间再次季节性上移,风险偏好者可提前布局02合约,关注12月份运价支撑逻辑。-20251111
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo· 2025-11-11 06:23
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - SCFIS shows a continuous upward trend, with the freight rate range seasonally shifting upwards again. The core issue is the direction of spot freight rates, and the main contract may be in the bottom - building process. It is recommended to participate with a light position or observe [2][3]. - The game between long and short positions is intensifying, and attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rate conditions [3]. 3. Summary by Content Freight Rate Index - On November 3, SCFIS (European route) was 1504.80 points, up 24.5% from the previous period; SCFIS (US West route) was 1329.71 points, up 4.9% from the previous period [2]. - On November 7, NCFI (composite index) was 1053.62 points, down 4.24% from the previous period; NCFI (European route) was 911.73 points, down 5.58% from the previous period; NCFI (US West route) was 1349.1 points, down 7.14% from the previous period [2]. - On November 7, SCFI published price was 1495.10 points, down 3.6 points from the previous period; SCFI European line price was 1323 USD/TEU, down 1.6% from the previous period; SCFI US West route was 2212 USD/FEU, down 16.4% from the previous period [2]. - On November 7, CCFI (composite index) was 1058.17 points, up 3.6% from the previous period; CCFI (European route) was 1366.85 points, up 3.3% from the previous period; CCFI (US West route) was 814.14 points, up 5.4% from the previous period [2]. Economic Data - In October, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month; the composite PMI output index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [3]. - In the eurozone in October, the manufacturing PMI initial value was 45.9, the service PMI initial value was 51.2, and the composite PMI initial value was 49.7 [2]. - In the US in October, the S&P Global service PMI initial value was 55.2, the manufacturing PMI initial value was 52.2, and the composite PMI initial value was 54.8 [3]. Market Conditions of Contracts - On November 10, the main contract 2512 closed at 1778.2, down 1.84%, with a trading volume of 20,400 lots and an open interest of 26,700 lots, an increase of 793 lots from the previous day [3]. Strategies - Short - term strategy: For risk - preferring investors, it is recommended to lightly test long in the 1550 - 1600 range of the EC2602 contract, pay attention to the spot trend, not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international situation instability, it is recommended to temporarily observe or lightly attempt [4]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [4]. Other Information - The daily trading limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18% [4]. - The margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [4]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4].