Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - SCFIS maintains an upward trend, and the far - month contracts are making up for the premium. The market is influenced by geopolitical conflicts, tariff policies, and the Middle East situation, with mixed long and short information, leading to wide - range fluctuations in the market. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates. It is recommended to participate with a light position or stay on the sidelines [1][4]. - Short - term, the market may rebound. Risk - preferring investors are advised to take partial profit when the market surges today. In the long - term, take profit when the contracts rise and wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback before making further decisions [1][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Freight Index - On July 14, compared with July 11, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route rose 7.3% to 2421.94 points, while the SCFIS for the US - West route fell 18.7% to 1266.59 points. The Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) dropped 3.19% to 1218.03 points, the NCFI for the European route fell 0.50% to 1435.21 points, and the NCFI for the US - West route rose 0.85% to 1186.59 points. The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) composite index fell 30.20 points, the SCFI for the European route dropped 0.10% to 2099 USD/TEU, and the SCFI for the US - West route rose 5.03% to 2194 USD/FEU. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) fell 2.2%, the CCFI for the European route rose 1.9%, and the CCFI for the US - West route fell 5.2% [1]. Economic Data - In the Eurozone in June, the preliminary manufacturing PMI was 49.4, the preliminary services PMI was 50 (a two - month high), and the preliminary composite PMI was 50.2. The Sentix investor confidence index was 0.2. The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI in June was 50.4, up 2.1 points from May. In the US in June, the preliminary Markit manufacturing PMI was 52, the preliminary services PMI was 53.1, and the preliminary composite PMI was 52.8 [2]. Market Situation - Trump continues to impose tariffs on multiple countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, and some shipping companies have announced freight rate increases. The US plans to impose a 30% tariff on Mexico and the EU, and the Middle East situation may ease. The market is filled with mixed long and short information, causing wide - range fluctuations in the market [4]. Trading Strategies - Short - term: The short - term market may rebound. Risk - preferring investors who went long on the 2510 contract below 1300 are advised to take partial profit when the market surges today. For the EC2512 contract, short lightly above 1650 and set stop - loss and take - profit levels. - Arbitrage: In the context of international turmoil, the market is mainly in a positive arbitrage structure with large fluctuations. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines or participate with a light position. - Long - term: Take profit when each contract rises, and wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback before determining the subsequent direction [5]. Contract Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 16%. - The company's margin for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 26%. - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 to 2606 is 100 lots [5].

欧元区2月制造业PM1初值为47.3, 前值为46.6; 欧元区2月服务业PM1初值50.7, 创3个月新低。欧元区2月综合PM1初值50.2, 与前值一致。欧 元区2月Sentix投资者信心指数为-12.7,预期-16.3。 2025年3月25日 美运日报 (航运研究小组) 虽SCFIS持续下跌, 但部分班轮公司继续宣涨运价,盘面偏高位震荡, 风险偏好者可尝试轻仓超跌反弹。 | SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | | | --- | --- | | 3月24日 | 3月21日 | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (欧洲航线) 1506.17点, 较上期下跌3.9% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (综合指数) 870.75点, 较上期上涨0.51% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (美西航线) 1260.05点, 较上期下跌16.4% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (欧洲航线) 871.91点, 较上期上涨0.62% | | 3月21日 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (美西航线) 1017.39点, 较上期下跌1.01% | | | 3月21日 | | 上海出口集装箱运 ...