2025 年 7 月 31 日 运指数(欧线):10空单 投资咨询从业资格号: Z0021502 郑玉洁 zhengyujie@gtht.com 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号: Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1:集运指数(欧线)基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日 涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | 昨日成交/持仓 | 前日成交/持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | EC2508 | 2.139.0 | 1.59% | 1.302 | 5.597 | -329 | 0.23 | 0. 51 | | | EC2510 | 1.468.7 | -0. 45% | 66, 330 | 54, 874 | 4, 148 | 1.21 | 0.82 | | | EC2512 | 1. 738. 0 | 0. 20% | 5.748 | 8. 505 | 374 | 0. 68 | 0. 49 | | | | 本期 | | 2025/7/28 | | 单位 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an industry investment rating [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market fundamentals for the main 2510 contract of the container shipping index (European Line) suggest a strategy of short - selling at high prices. Hold the 10 - 12 reverse spread and reduce positions and take profit on the 10 - 02 reverse spread. The market may experience a phased decline and return to rationality, with the trading perspective likely to focus more on the industry's own fundamental logic. Additionally, pay attention to the short - term emotional impact of China - US tariff negotiations on the market next week [9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Performance - In the past week, the container shipping index (European Line) oscillated at a high level. The main 2510 contract closed at 1527.5 points; the secondary main 2512 contract closed at 1720.2 points, and the 10 - 12 spread was reported at - 193 points [6] - For the futures contracts, EC2508 closed at 2,212.6 with a daily decline of 0.80%, EC2510 at 1,527.5 with a daily decline of 2.71%, and EC2512 at 1,720.2 with a daily decline of 1.56% [1] 3.2 Freight Rates - In the spot freight market, in early August, Evergreen and MSC plan to increase rates by $200/FEU, while Maersk's opening price drops by $100 - 200/FEU, and the average quote of the PA Alliance drops to around $3100/FEU. The freight rate has peaked in early August, with the average static quote in week 32 around $3360/FEU. Observe the rate of decline in the second half of August [7] - SCFIS: The European route was at 2,400.50 points with a weekly decline of 0.9%, and the US West route was at 1,301.81 points with a weekly increase of 2.8%. SCFI: The European route was at $2,090/TEU with a bi - weekly increase of 0.5%, and the US West route was at $2,067/FEU with a bi - weekly decline of 3.5% [1] 3.3 Supply and Demand - **Supply**: In August, the number of blank sailings increased by 1, but due to MSC's replacement of small ships with large ones, the overall market capacity remained stable at around 321,000 TEU/week. In September, the number of blank sailings remained at 2, and the number of pending voyages decreased from 7 to 4. Excluding pending voyages, the average weekly capacity in September was revised up to 314,000 TEU/week, slightly lower than August's 321,000 TEU/week but higher than July's 301,000 TEU/week [8] - **Demand**: It is expected that the cargo volume in early August (weeks 31 and 32) will remain resilient, with Christmas orders likely to be shipped by early August. There is a high probability that the inflection point of market cargo volume will occur in mid - to - late August. Observe the timing of the inflection point and the rate of decline [8] 3.4 Macro News - The Houthi rebels have upgraded their maritime blockade and will attack all ships of shipping companies cooperating with Israel. - Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng will hold economic and trade talks with the US in Sweden from July 27th to 30th [5]

2025 年 6 月 27 日 集运指数（欧线）：短期震荡 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 zhengyujie@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | 昨日成交/持仓 | | 前日成交/持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | EC2506 | 1,885.9 | -0.06% | 475 | 2,275 | -216 | 0.21 | | 0.31 | | 期货 | EC2508 | 1,759.9 | 1.24% | 38,516 | 41,485 | -2,043 | 0.93 | | 1.17 | | | EC2510 | 1,325.6 | 2.88% | 14,964 | 30,795 | -751 | 0.49 | | 0.39 | | | | 本期 | | 2025/6/23 | | ...