Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report recommends holding short positions for the 10 - contract [11] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The market fundamentals of the main 2510 contract maintain a trading logic of shorting on rallies. The anti - involution policy currently has limited impact on the container shipping industry. The trading perspective of the European line may gradually return to its own fundamental logic [11] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Contracts**: The EC2508 contract closed at 2139.0 points, up 1.59%, with a position reduction of 329 lots; the EC2510 contract closed at 1468.7 points, down 0.45%, with a position increase of 4148 lots; the EC2512 contract closed at 1738.0 points, up 0.20%, with a position increase of 374 lots [1] - **Freight Index**: The SCFIS European route index was at 2316.56 points, down 3.5%; the SCFIS US - West route index was at 1284.01 points, down 1.4%. The SCFI European route index was at $2090/TEU, up 0.5%; the SCFI US - West route index was at $2067/FEU, down 3.5% [1] - **Ocean Freight**: The freight rates of different carriers from Shanghai to Rotterdam vary. For example, Maersk's price for a 40'GP is $2890 and for a 20'GP is $1725 [1] - **Exchange Rate**: The US dollar index was at 99.94, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB was at 7.18 [1] 2. Shipping Capacity - **Monthly Shipping Capacity**: In August, the shipping capacity was slightly revised up to 324,000 TEU/week, and in September, it was revised up to 321,000 TEU/week. From a monthly perspective, September is likely to see a double - reduction in supply and demand, but the current decline in shipping capacity may be less than that in demand, putting further pressure on the fundamentals [11] - **Ship Schedule**: Compared with Sunday's statistics, Evergreen added an extra ship EVER FRONT in the 35th week (August 25 - 31), and the undetermined schedules in the 37th and 38th weeks became normal ship deployments, while the blank sailing in the 39th week became undetermined [11] 3. Macro News - **Domestic News**: The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to discuss the economic situation and work. President Xi Jinping chaired relevant meetings. Wang Yi met with the delegation of the US - China Business Council [7] - **US Economic Data**: The US economy grew by 3% in the second quarter, exceeding expectations. The ADP employment in the US increased by 104,000 in July, reaching the highest growth level since March [7] - **US Federal Reserve**: The Fed kept the interest rate unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%, with some members opposing and advocating for a rate cut. Powell did not give a clear indication of a rate cut in September [7] - **Tariffs**: Trump signed executive orders on tariffs, including suspending the minimum tax - free treatment for low - value goods, imposing tariffs on India, Brazil, South Korea, and on imported semi - finished copper products, etc. [7][8] - **Sanctions**: The US Treasury imposed sanctions on 15 shipping companies, 52 vessels, 12 individuals, and 53 entities involved in evading sanctions in 17 countries related to Iran [8] 4. Market Freight - In the second week of August, the market freight rate center dropped to around $3200/FEU. Different alliances and carriers adjusted their freight rates, such as Maersk, CMA CGM, and MSC [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an industry investment rating [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market fundamentals for the main 2510 contract of the container shipping index (European Line) suggest a strategy of short - selling at high prices. Hold the 10 - 12 reverse spread and reduce positions and take profit on the 10 - 02 reverse spread. The market may experience a phased decline and return to rationality, with the trading perspective likely to focus more on the industry's own fundamental logic. Additionally, pay attention to the short - term emotional impact of China - US tariff negotiations on the market next week [9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Performance - In the past week, the container shipping index (European Line) oscillated at a high level. The main 2510 contract closed at 1527.5 points; the secondary main 2512 contract closed at 1720.2 points, and the 10 - 12 spread was reported at - 193 points [6] - For the futures contracts, EC2508 closed at 2,212.6 with a daily decline of 0.80%, EC2510 at 1,527.5 with a daily decline of 2.71%, and EC2512 at 1,720.2 with a daily decline of 1.56% [1] 3.2 Freight Rates - In the spot freight market, in early August, Evergreen and MSC plan to increase rates by $200/FEU, while Maersk's opening price drops by $100 - 200/FEU, and the average quote of the PA Alliance drops to around $3100/FEU. The freight rate has peaked in early August, with the average static quote in week 32 around $3360/FEU. Observe the rate of decline in the second half of August [7] - SCFIS: The European route was at 2,400.50 points with a weekly decline of 0.9%, and the US West route was at 1,301.81 points with a weekly increase of 2.8%. SCFI: The European route was at $2,090/TEU with a bi - weekly increase of 0.5%, and the US West route was at $2,067/FEU with a bi - weekly decline of 3.5% [1] 3.3 Supply and Demand - **Supply**: In August, the number of blank sailings increased by 1, but due to MSC's replacement of small ships with large ones, the overall market capacity remained stable at around 321,000 TEU/week. In September, the number of blank sailings remained at 2, and the number of pending voyages decreased from 7 to 4. Excluding pending voyages, the average weekly capacity in September was revised up to 314,000 TEU/week, slightly lower than August's 321,000 TEU/week but higher than July's 301,000 TEU/week [8] - **Demand**: It is expected that the cargo volume in early August (weeks 31 and 32) will remain resilient, with Christmas orders likely to be shipped by early August. There is a high probability that the inflection point of market cargo volume will occur in mid - to - late August. Observe the timing of the inflection point and the rate of decline [8] 3.4 Macro News - The Houthi rebels have upgraded their maritime blockade and will attack all ships of shipping companies cooperating with Israel. - Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng will hold economic and trade talks with the US in Sweden from July 27th to 30th [5]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The container shipping index (European line) is expected to be volatile in the short term. The 08 contract is likely to remain in a temporary volatile market, and for the 2510 contract, it is recommended to short on rallies, with attention to geopolitical situation changes [14][15][16] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Futures Data**: On June 26, 2025, the closing price of EC2506 was 1,885.9, down 0.06%; EC2508 was 1,759.9, up 1.24%; and EC2510 was 1,325.6, up 2.88%. The trading volume and open interest of each contract also changed to varying degrees [1] - **Freight Index**: The SCFIS European route index was 1,937.14, up 14.1% week - on - week; the SCFIS US West route index was 2,083.46, down 28.4% week - on - week. The SCFI European route index was 1,835 $/TEU, down 0.5% bi - weekly; the SCFI US West route index was 2,772 $/FEU, down 32.7% bi - weekly [1] - **Spot Freight Rates**: The opening price of Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam route in the second week of July was 2,960 $/40'GP and 1,770 $/20'GP. Different carriers' freight rates for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route varied, with prices ranging from 2,035 - 3,860 $/40'GP and 1,770 - 2,555 $/20'GP [1] - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index was 97.31, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB was 7.17 [1] 3.2 Shipping Capacity Data of China - European Base Routes - **Weekly Shipping Capacity**: There are different scenarios for weekly shipping capacity, including cases where undetermined voyages are not included and cases where they are included. The total weekly shipping capacity of different alliances shows fluctuations [5][11] - **Monthly Average Weekly Shipping Capacity**: The monthly average weekly shipping capacity in 2024 and 2025 also shows certain trends, with different data for each month [9][10] - **Shipping Schedule from June to August**: The shipping schedules of different alliances from June to August are provided, including details of ships and voyages. In July, there are no undetermined voyages, with a weekly average shipping capacity of 30.6 million TEU/week. In August, if undetermined voyages are not considered, the weekly average shipping capacity is 30.5 million TEU/week; if considered, it rises to 31.4 million TEU/week [7][13] 3.3 Macroeconomic News - **US - Iran Nuclear Negotiation News**: The Trump administration has discussed helping Iran obtain up to $30 billion for civilian nuclear energy projects, relaxing sanctions, and unfreezing restricted funds to encourage Iran to return to the negotiation table. However, Iran's foreign minister said there are currently no plans to restart nuclear negotiations [12][15] - **Military Conflict News**: The Israeli military said the Houthi rebels in Yemen launched a ballistic missile at Israel, which landed outside Israel [15] 3.4 Market Analysis and Strategy Suggestions - **July Market**: Affected by Maersk's low - price pricing strategy, the freight rate peak may appear in early July. The effective shipping capacity in July increased by 3.5% month - on - month, similar to the historical monthly increase in cargo volume. The 08 contract is expected to be in a volatile market [14] - **October Market**: October is a traditional off - peak season for the European line. The 2510 contract has insufficient upward momentum, and it is recommended to short on rallies. The bottom valuation can refer to the lowest quotation range of shipping companies in the first half of the year, and in extreme cases, it may fall to the cash - flow cost price range [15][16] 3.5 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of the container shipping index (European line) is 0, indicating a neutral trend [17]