1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information regarding the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The freight rate is expected to show a "U" - shaped movement. The European - line freight rate and futures price are predicted to remain in a weak and volatile state in the medium term until November, and then start to rebound. The short - term fluctuation range is expected to be between 900 and 1200 points [6][7]. - For trading strategies, the 12 - contract can be considered for low - buying opportunities, the medium - term high - selling strategy can continue, and the long - term strategy depends on the situation. A positive spread strategy for the 12 - 02 contracts can be attempted when their prices converge, and a "selling over - the - counter options + buying futures" hedging combination can be tried [8]. - The current supply - demand situation shows that the demand is weak overall, especially in the European line, and the supply growth rate has decreased as expected, but the stock still has pressure, resulting in a continued oversupply situation [6][30]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Viewpoint Summary - **Trend Forecast**: The demand is relatively weak this year. The off - season is expected to last until November, and then pick up. The supply still has an oversupply situation due to insufficient idle capacity. The European - line freight rate and futures price are expected to be weak in the medium term and rebound in November. However, variables such as shipping company actions and macro - level impacts need to be noted [6]. - **Interval Outlook**: The short - term fluctuation range of the long - term European - line freight rate is [900, 1200] points [7]. - **Strategy Outlook**: The 12 - contract can be considered for low - buying opportunities, the medium - term high - selling strategy can continue, and the long - term strategy depends on the situation. A positive spread strategy for the 12 - 02 contracts can be attempted when their prices converge, and a "selling over - the - counter options + buying futures" hedging combination can be tried [8]. - **Risk Points**: Red Sea resumption of navigation, unexpected development of tariffs, etc. [9] 3.2 Market Review - **Container Shipping Freight Rate Review**: In the third quarter, the European - line settlement freight rate first rose seasonally in early July and then declined. The decline was mainly due to the "off - peak in peak season" of booking demand. The European - line spot freight rate index also showed a downward trend. The US - West line freight rate fluctuated widely due to factors such as tariffs and port fees. Overall, the third quarter showed an "off - peak in peak season" situation [12][13]. - **Container Shipping Futures Price Review**: The container shipping index (European line) futures price first rose with seasonal demand recovery and then declined due to oversupply. After reaching the lowest point in September, it rebounded slightly with shipping company price support. The volatility in the third quarter was relatively narrow [18]. - **Demand "Off - peak in Peak Season"**: The global container shipping market demand maintained a certain seasonality in the third quarter, but the year - on - year growth rate was relatively low. The European - line demand was relatively poor, as reflected by the low congestion index of European ports. The euro - zone economy was in a weak recovery state, unable to provide strong support for the futures price [23][25][28]. - **Supply Growth Rate Declined, Stock Still under Pressure**: - **High Effective Capacity**: The global container ship capacity growth rate has gradually slowed down but remains relatively high, higher than the average. This is one of the reasons for the high overall supply stock [30]. - **Slowdown in New Ship Orders and Deliveries**: In July and August, the new order volume and shipbuilding completion volume of container ships decreased significantly year - on - year, indicating that the market capacity is relatively saturated and the demand is not strong [40]. - **Stable Red Sea Diversion Structure**: The Red Sea diversion continues, and the transit volume of the Suez Canal is still low. However, the current diversion pattern is relatively stable, and its supporting effect on the freight rate of the Asia - Europe route is relatively weak [42]. 3.3 Core Concerns - **Tariff Changes**: In the third quarter, tariff changes were relatively small compared to the second quarter. However, recent US tariff announcements on EU and other products will have a negative impact on the international trade environment and the container shipping market in the medium and long term. The follow - up results of China - US tariff negotiations also need to be continuously monitored [46][47]. - **Shipping Company Measures**: Shipping companies have been issuing price - increase letters, but the actual implementation effect has been poor except in June. However, their price - increasing actions can have a short - term positive impact on the futures market sentiment. Whether shipping companies can maintain the current price quotes will affect the valuation of the futures price [50]. - **Fundamentals**: In the fourth quarter, the demand is expected to remain weak until November and then pick up, but overall it may still be relatively weak. The supply growth rate is expected to continue to decline but remain at a high level, and the oversupply situation will continue [53]. 3.4 Valuation Feedback and Supply - Demand Outlook - **Valuation**: Currently, the valuation is weak but has the potential to increase. The shipping companies' price - supporting actions in mid - October have led to a recovery in the futures price valuation. The current basis has converged to a reasonable range [54][55]. - **Demand Side**: - **Trade - Related Macroeconomic Indicators**: The OECD composite leading indicator shows that China's overall export demand in the fourth quarter may be relatively stable but slightly weak [56]. - **Trade Recovery**: Based on past experience, China's export trade data usually increases from mid - November, but there is a possibility of blurred seasonality this year [58]. - **Authoritative Institution Forecasts**: Clarksons has raised the trade volume forecast for the Asia - Europe route in the next two years, but the increase is relatively small [60]. - **Supply Outlook**: The total container ship capacity in 2025 is expected to increase by 6.6% year - on - year, and the capacity of 17000 + container ships is expected to increase by 6.1% year - on - year. The oversupply situation is expected to continue in the fourth quarter [60][63].