Core Viewpoint - The implementation of personal consumption loan interest subsidy policies and service industry operating entity loan interest subsidy policies aims to lower financing costs, stimulate consumption potential, and boost market vitality [1][4]. Group 1: Policy Implementation - The Ministry of Finance and nine other departments issued the implementation plan for the service industry operating entity loan interest subsidy policy, which applies to loans issued by 21 national banks to eight categories of service industries from March 16, 2025, to December 31, 2025 [2]. - The subsidy period is capped at one year, with an annual subsidy rate of 1% of the loan principal, and a maximum subsidy of 10,000 yuan per entity [2]. - The central and provincial finances will bear 90% and 10% of the subsidy funds, respectively [2]. Group 2: Personal Consumption Loan Subsidy - The Ministry of Finance, the central bank, and the banking regulatory authority issued the implementation plan for the personal consumption loan interest subsidy policy, which applies to loans identifiable for consumption from September 1, 2025, to August 31, 2026 [3]. - The annual subsidy rate is set at 1 percentage point, not exceeding 50% of the loan contract interest rate, with a maximum cumulative subsidy of 3,000 yuan for individuals [3]. - The subsidy funds will also be shared by the central and provincial finances at a ratio of 90% to 10% [3]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The two subsidy policies work in tandem with other measures in the "Consumption Promotion Special Action Plan," aiming to stimulate consumption potential and enhance market activity from both demand and supply sides [4]. - The fiscal subsidies will lower financing costs for entities, benefiting retail and small micro-loan demand while alleviating credit risks to some extent [4]. - State-owned and joint-stock banks are expected to directly benefit from these policies, while local rural commercial banks may also develop their own consumption loan subsidy policies [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The company reported a strong performance in the first half of 2025, with revenue of 6.06 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%, and a net profit of 1.97 billion yuan, up 13.5% year-on-year, indicating stable growth [1] - The company is actively reducing the pace of credit expansion to solidify its foundation for smaller-scale operations, as retail credit demand remains weak [1][2] - The company has managed to maintain a stable non-performing loan ratio of 0.76% and a provision coverage ratio of 490%, which is better than its peers [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 6.06 billion yuan, a 10.1% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.97 billion yuan, reflecting a 13.5% growth [1] - The total assets reached approximately 401.3 billion yuan, with total loans amounting to 251.5 billion yuan, marking a growth of 9.5% and 4.4% respectively compared to the beginning of the year [1] Deposit Management - The company’s deposit balance stood at 310.8 billion yuan, growing by 8.5% year-on-year, which is lower than the 14.0% growth seen in the same period last year [2] - The company is focusing on reducing high-cost long-term deposits and encouraging clients to shorten deposit terms to balance its asset-liability structure and lower deposit costs [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit for 2025-2027 is set at 4.41 billion yuan, 5.21 billion yuan, and 6.17 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.7%, 18.1%, and 18.4% [3] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.75x for 2025, 0.66x for 2026, and 0.58x for 2027, indicating a favorable valuation [3] Market Position - The company maintains a competitive edge in the small and micro-enterprise lending sector, with a comprehensive network in Jiangsu and opportunities for expansion into other provinces through village banks [3]

Core Viewpoint - The personal credit market in China is experiencing a divergence between banks and lending platforms, with banks facing increasing pressure on retail loan performance while lending platforms report strong growth in credit issuance and profitability [2][9]. Banking Sector - Banks, represented by institutions like China Merchants Bank (CMB), are struggling with retail loan performance, showing a retail non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 1.01%, up 0.03 percentage points from the end of last year [2][3]. - CMB's retail loan balance decreased from 13.43 trillion yuan to 13.37 trillion yuan, with a mere 0.38% growth in retail loans during the first quarter, significantly lower than the 6.49% growth in corporate loans [3][4]. - The overall trend shows that all six major banks experienced a rare increase in personal loan NPL ratios, with one bank reporting a personal consumption loan NPL ratio of 12.37% [4]. - The asset quality pressure is attributed to economic downturns leading to higher unemployment and reduced income growth, impacting borrowers' repayment capabilities [4][10]. Lending Platforms - Lending platforms, such as Qifu Technology and Xiaoyin Technology, reported strong performance in the first quarter, with significant year-on-year growth in loan issuance, revenue, and net profit [5][6]. - For instance, Qifu Technology's loan balance increased by 2.38%, with a quarterly loan issuance of 88.89 billion yuan, reflecting a 15.76% year-on-year growth [5]. - The asset quality of these platforms remains stable, with most reporting a decrease in NPL ratios, and some platforms like Xiaoyin Technology showing a 63.45% increase in loan issuance [6][7]. - The overall performance of lending platforms contrasts sharply with banks, as they have adapted their risk preferences and improved their risk assessment systems, allowing for more agile responses to market conditions [9][10]. Market Dynamics - The relationship between lending platforms and banks has shifted, with lending platforms becoming the primary players (甲方) and banks taking a secondary role (乙方) in the lending process [8][10]. - Smaller banks are increasingly reliant on larger lending platforms for retail business expansion, often leading to unfavorable financial outcomes due to high funding costs and competitive pressures [10][11]. - New regulations have compressed interest rates for smaller lending platforms, creating challenges for their survival, while larger platforms continue to attract funding and maintain lower financing costs [11].