文|观潮新消费 曾几何时，一包辣条、一袋瓜子，是异国华人与留学生舍不得拆开的乡愁。现在，中国零食不仅早已成 为海外华人超市的常客，更走进了本地年轻人的购物车。 尽管海外营收绝对规模仍较小，但再不出海，有可能就出局了。 出海潮起，渠道带路 国内零食出海始于千禧年初，其中比较有代表性的是洽洽食品。 2000年左右，一位中国香港的代理商在北京参加海外华人华侨新年恳谈会时吃到了洽洽瓜子，觉得很好 吃，于是便成了洽洽出海合作的第一位代理商。2008年，洽洽在越南设立第一个海外办事处，正式开启 海外布局。 出海之初，品牌代理商多为华人，渠道也多为华人商超，导致洽洽难以触达当地核心消费群体，无法形 成规模和品牌优势，其本质只是"商品出海"而非"品牌出海"。 直到2015年，洽洽董事会把"国际化"写进五年规划，开始在海外完成CHACHA、CHACHEER等国际商 标的注册，并组建独立外贸事业部，才标志着其打破瓜子出口的卖货模式，向品牌叙事更进一步。 2016年，洽洽海外营收同比增长48.58%，除2022年至2023年，洽洽海外营收均保持两位数同比增长。 社交平台上，外国博主"狂炫"辣条、嗑瓜子的视频屡见不鲜，东南亚校园里， ...

Core Insights - The Chinese snack market is undergoing significant changes, with a market size reaching 1.1 trillion yuan in 2024, but the annual growth rate is expected to slow to 2%-3% from 2024 to 2027, indicating a shift in market dynamics rather than a decline in vitality [2][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The rapid emergence of discount snack stores is a notable trend, with the number of such stores expected to increase from over 1,000 in 2020 to 45,000 by mid-2025, averaging nearly 30 new stores opening daily [4]. - The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for discount stores from 2019 to 2024 is projected at 38%, significantly outpacing traditional supermarkets [4]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Consumers are increasingly drawn to discount stores primarily for cost savings, with prices typically 25% lower than traditional supermarkets due to direct partnerships with manufacturers [6]. - Discount stores offer flexible product options, catering to younger consumers who prefer smaller, varied purchases, thus reducing waste [6]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The discount store sector is expected to continue growing, with potential for over 70,000 stores in the future, while major players like "零食很忙" and "赵一鸣" dominate nearly two-thirds of the market [8]. - The return period for investments in this sector is lengthening, from one year to potentially three years, necessitating careful risk assessment for potential investors [8]. Group 4: Retail Channel Shifts - Traditional supermarkets and grocery stores held 80% of the market share in 2015, but this is projected to drop to 50% by 2025, reflecting a significant shift in retail dynamics [10]. - E-commerce is also evolving, with consumers increasingly purchasing snacks through content platforms like Douyin and Kuaishou, rather than traditional e-commerce sites [12][13]. Group 5: International Expansion - Southeast Asia is emerging as a new market for snack manufacturers, with growth rates in countries like Indonesia and Malaysia outpacing domestic growth since 2021 [15]. - The combined snack market of five major Southeast Asian countries is expected to reach 29% of China's market share by 2029, driven by cultural similarities and economic growth [15][17]. Group 6: Strategic Adaptation - Companies must adapt to changing channels and consumer preferences, as traditional sales methods become less effective. Brands like Wei Long and Yan Jin Pu Zi have already embraced new channels and marketing strategies [19]. - The snack industry is entering a new development phase, where adapting to channel changes is crucial for sustained growth and success [21].

Core Viewpoint - Brands must move beyond relying on hit products for quick profits; only by deeply respecting and understanding local markets can sustainable growth be achieved [16] Group 1: Market Trends - Chinese snacks have become popular not only among overseas Chinese but also among local young consumers, with products like spicy strips and sunflower seeds gaining traction [3] - The domestic market for snacks is highly competitive, prompting brands to seek growth opportunities abroad as domestic revenues stagnate [3][4] - For instance, Qiaqia Foods reported a 6.4% decline in domestic revenue while experiencing a 13.18% increase in overseas revenue in the first half of the year [3] Group 2: International Expansion - The trend of Chinese snack brands going overseas began in the early 2000s, with Qiaqia Foods being a notable example [4] - Qiaqia established its first overseas office in Vietnam in 2008, marking the start of its international strategy [4] - By 2016, Qiaqia's overseas revenue grew by 48.58%, and the brand has maintained double-digit growth in subsequent years [5] Group 3: Market Entry Strategies - Qiaqia focuses on offline channels, targeting convenience stores like 7-Eleven in Thailand, which holds a 70% market share in the local convenience store sector [6] - The brand faced challenges entering 7-Eleven due to existing local competitors and stringent entry standards [6][7] - In contrast, Three Squirrels adopted an online-first approach, launching flagship stores on platforms like Lazada and Amazon in 2018 [8][9] Group 4: Product Localization - Successful brands like Weidong have adapted their products to local tastes, such as offering milder flavors in Italy and incorporating local ingredients in Southeast Asia [14][15] - Compliance with local food regulations is crucial, as different countries have varying standards that can impact product availability [15] Group 5: Supply Chain Development - Companies like Qiaqia and Yanjin Puhui are shifting from merely exporting products to establishing local production facilities, enhancing their supply chain capabilities [16][17] - Qiaqia invested 500 million yuan in a sunflower seed factory in Thailand, which has become a significant asset for the brand [16][18] - As of the first half of this year, Qiaqia's overseas revenue reached 278 million yuan, accounting for 10.1% of total revenue, with a higher gross margin compared to domestic operations [18]

Core Insights - The Chinese snack industry, valued at over 1 trillion RMB, is experiencing a pivotal transformation driven by channel evolution, particularly the rise of discount snack stores, which are becoming key growth drivers [1][5][6] Market Overview - The market size of the Chinese snack industry is projected to reach 1.1 trillion RMB by 2024, but the annual growth rate is expected to slow to 2-3% from 2024 to 2027 [2][5] - The discount snack store channel is forecasted to continue its rapid growth, achieving a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14% from 2024 to 2027, increasing its contribution to overall snack sales from 9.0% in 2024 to 12.5% in 2027 [6][11] Channel Dynamics - Traditional retail channels, such as supermarkets and grocery stores, are losing market share, while discount snack stores are emerging as a new battleground for brand growth [5][6] - Discount snack stores have expanded their store count from approximately 1,000 in 2020 to over 45,000 by mid-2025, with a projected ceiling of over 70,000 stores, indicating more than 30% growth potential [15][16] Competitive Landscape - The discount snack store market is currently dominated by two major groups: "Snack Busy Group" and "Wancheng Group," which together hold nearly two-thirds of the market share [16] - The average return period for discount snack stores has extended from about 1 year to approximately 2 years, reflecting increased competition and higher store density [17] E-commerce Trends - The influence of traditional retail channels is diminishing, with their sales share expected to drop from 80% in 2015 to 50% by 2025, while discount snack stores and e-commerce channels are gaining market share [18] - E-commerce growth is shifting towards content platforms, which engage consumers more effectively than traditional platforms, with 91.8% of respondents using content platforms daily [18] International Opportunities - Southeast Asia is emerging as a significant growth opportunity for Chinese snack companies, with a projected CAGR of 6% from 2024 to 2029, despite the market size being only 24% of China's in 2024 [22] Strategic Implications - Snack companies must adapt to structural channel changes by implementing robust product strategies, agile marketing plans, and consumer-oriented innovation cycles to avoid being outpaced by the rapidly evolving market [24]

市场规模已超万亿，行业年增长将放缓至2-3% 报告指出，2024年中国零食市场规模已达1.1万亿人民币。然而，瑞银预测，在2024年至2027年期间，整个行业的销售额年均复合增长率（CAGR）将 放缓至2-3%。 对于中国万亿规模的零食行业而言，渠道变革或许有望成为决定未来赢家的关键变量。 根追风交易台消息，瑞银10月14日发布的一份研究报告显示，中国零食行业正处在一个关键的转折点。虽然整体市场增长放缓，但渠道的碎片化和去中 心化趋势，尤其是零食折扣店的异军突起，正在创造出不容忽视的结构性增长机会。 零食折扣店是当前市场的主要增长引擎。该渠道在2019-2024年间实现了38%的惊人年均复合增长率。门店数量已激增至4.5万家，即便如此，该行认为 市场远未饱和，预计门店总数天花板可达7万家以上。 同时，行业电商渠道增长重心转向内容平台，其娱乐性、社交性和O2O转化能力为品牌带来新机遇。东南亚市场也为中国零食企业出海提供新兴增长空 间，预计2024-2029年将以6%的复合年增长率增长。 在这样的大背景下，投资者很容易对整个赛道失去兴趣。但报告强调，真正的故事隐藏在渠道的演变之中。传统渠道（如商超、杂货店）的份额 ...