事件：公司发布 2025年半年度报告，25H1公司实现营收27.5亿元，同比-5.1%；归母净利润0.9亿元，同 比-73.7%。业绩下滑主要系宏观经济环境、渠道变革、春节错期等因素导致收入承压，同时葵花籽及部 分坚果原料成本高企大幅压缩毛利率，叠加公司在新兴渠道和新品研发上加大投入所致。 新兴渠道快速增长，海外市场表现亮眼。分产品看，25H1 公司葵花子、坚果类、其他产品分别实现营 收17.7 亿元（-4.5%）、6.14 亿元（-7.0%）、3.0 亿元（-13.8%）。瓜子品类中，打手瓜子、葵珍等系 列保持增长；坚果品类聚焦每日坚果与礼盒两大核心，并积极拓展风味及单品坚果，其中"全坚果"新品 上市后表现良好，销售额已突破1 亿元。公司亦推出蜂蜜黄油味鲜切薯条及魔芋等新品，构建新增长 点。分地区看，25H1 南方区、东方区、北方区、电商、海外分别实现营收8.8 亿元（+2.4%）、6.6亿元 （-24.8%）、4.2亿元（-19.8%）、4.5亿元（+24.8%）、2.8 亿元（+13.2%）。传统商超渠道客流下滑 对东、北区业绩造成一定影响，但公司积极拓展零食量贩、会员店及即时零售等新兴渠道，海外市场通 ...

研究所： 证券分析师： 余春生 S0350513090001 yucs@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 晨会纪要 ——2025 年第 149 期 2025 年 08 月 27 日 晨会纪要 观点精粹: 最新报告摘要 营收、净利润均维持同比高增速--江苏银行/城商行Ⅱ(600919/214804) 公司点评 2025H1 海外市场拓展顺利，灵犀智能体上线有望加速 AI 收入兑现--金山办公/软件开发(688111/217104) 科 创板公司普通报告 交易承压，配置入场--债券研究周报 Q2 收入同比增速回正，盈利能力承压--洽洽食品/休闲食品(002557/213408) 公司点评 铝产量增长增厚业绩，中期分红提升至 40%--云铝股份/工业金属(000807/212403) 公司点评 卫星化学(002648)深度报告之四：高端烯烃项目加速布局，引领公司成长新征程--卫星化学/化学原料 (002648/212202) 公司 PPT 报告 会员表现优于行业，运营商重回正增长--芒果超媒/数字媒体(300413/217207) 公司点评 B 端表现亮眼，净利率同比改善--妙可蓝多/饮料乳品(6 ...

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.08.23 短期较大承压，静待后续复苏 洽洽食品(002557) 洽洽食品（002557）半年报点评 报告副标题 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | [Table_Invest] 评级： | 增持 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 訾猛(分析师) | 021-38676442 | zimeng@gtht.com | S0880513120002 | | | | 颜慧菁(分析师) | 021-23183952 | yanhuijing@gtht.com | S0880525040022 | [Table_Target] 目标价格(元): | 27.45 | | 张宇轩(分析师) | 021-23154172 | zhangyuxuan@gtht.com | S0880525040039 | | | | 陈力宇(分析师) | 021-38677618 | chenliyu@gtht.com | S0880522090005 | | | | 庞瑜泽(分析师) | 021-380 ...

公司研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 洽洽食品（002557）2025 年中报点评 强推（维持） 经营持续调整，高股息较优 目标价：28.5 元 事项： 公司发布 2025 年中报。25 年 H1 实现营收 27.52 亿元，同比-5.05%；归母净 利润 0.89 亿元，同比-73.68%；扣非归母净利润 0.43 亿元，同比-84.77%。单 Q2 实现营收 11.81 亿元，同比+9.69%；归母净利润 0.11 亿元，同比-88.17%； 扣非归母净利-0.15 亿元，同比-124.39%。 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 7,131 | 7,212 | 7,597 | 7,988 | | 同比增速(%) | 4.8% | 1.1% | 5.3% | 5.2% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 849 | 577 | 816 | 937 | | 同比增速(%) | 5.8% | -32.1% | 41.7% | ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a steady growth in revenue and net profit for 2024, with a focus on expanding its product offerings and distribution channels, despite facing challenges in profit margins and traditional sales channels [1][2][3][4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's revenue and net profit were 7.131 billion and 849 million yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 4.79% and 5.82% [1]. - For Q4 2024, revenue and net profit were 2.374 billion and 223 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.99% but a decline in net profit by 24.79% [1]. - In Q1 2025, revenue and net profit dropped to 1.571 billion and 77 million yuan, reflecting year-on-year decreases of 13.76% and 67.88% [1]. Product Performance - Key products showed robust growth, with revenue from sunflower seeds, nuts, and other products reaching 4.381 billion, 1.923 billion, and 773 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.60%, 9.74%, and 8.04% [1]. - The company is focusing on establishing its brand in the sunflower seed market and has launched new products like "Da Shou" peanuts, which have seen rapid sales growth [1]. - The high-end sunflower seed product "Kuaizhen" is expanding through new channels such as high-end membership stores and boutique supermarkets [1]. Channel Development - New channels such as volume sales and e-commerce are growing rapidly, while traditional channels are under pressure [2]. - In 2024, revenue from southern, northern, eastern regions, e-commerce, and overseas markets were 2.266 billion, 1.343 billion, 2.121 billion, 779 million, and 569 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.88%, -3.25%, 9.47%, 8.86%, and 10.28%, respectively [2]. - The number of distributors decreased by 99 to 1,380, but average distributor income increased by 6% to 4.11 million yuan per distributor [2]. Profitability and Cost Structure - The company's gross margin and net margin improved by 2.02 and 0.12 percentage points to 28.78% and 11.92%, respectively, in 2024 [3]. - In Q4 2024, due to rising raw material prices, the overall cost increased as the company utilized both reserve and newly procured raw materials [3]. - For Q1 2025, gross margin and net margin decreased to 19.47% and 4.93%, with changes in expense ratios reflecting a mixed trend [3]. Investment Outlook - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 7.4 billion, 7.8 billion, and 8.2 billion yuan in 2025-2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 3%, 6%, and 5% [4]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 720 million, 850 million, and 920 million yuan, with a projected year-on-year decline of 15% in 2025, followed by increases in subsequent years [4]. - The company aims to enhance business growth quality and maintain a "buy" rating based on its strategic initiatives [4].

Summary of the Conference Call on the Opportunities for Chinese Snack Exports Industry Overview - The Southeast Asian snack market has significant potential, with a total market size of approximately 150 billion yuan, where five core countries account for 92% of the market share, with Vietnam showing the fastest growth [1][3][6] - The long-term market share for Chinese snacks in Southeast Asia could reach 15% to 20%, corresponding to an incremental market exceeding 20 billion yuan [1][4][25] Key Insights and Arguments - **Target Markets**: Vietnam, Malaysia, and Indonesia are identified as primary target markets due to their high growth rates and undefined competitive landscapes. Thailand has high average prices, presenting market capture opportunities, while the Philippines can be approached through innovation [1][4][18] - **Competitive Landscape**: Local brands are strong but have low concentration, with CR5 at 30.6% and CR10 at 44.4%. Major international players like Mars, Mondelez, and Unilever hold market shares of 5% to 8% [1][6] - **Chinese Brand Advantages**: Chinese snack brands possess advantages in supply chain efficiency, product innovation, and flexible strategies, allowing them to outperform local brands in operational efficiency and brand reputation [3][16] - **Challenges**: Chinese companies face localization and shelf space barriers. Localization requires compliance with varying regulations, certifications, and taste preferences across different countries. Shelf space barriers arise from the current stage of market entry, necessitating strategies to penetrate mainstream distribution channels [17][19] Strategic Recommendations - **Initial Strategy**: Companies should focus on building brands, channels, and production capacity internally while establishing specialized organizations for localized operations. Key markets should be Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand [4][20] - **Product Strategy**: Emphasize advantageous product categories and local flavor adjustments. Establish overseas organizations to develop distribution networks and leverage new media to influence overseas consumers [4][20] - **Market Penetration**: Utilize emerging trends in discount retail and e-commerce to enhance market penetration, especially in regions where traditional channels are being transformed [17][20] Notable Companies and Their Strategies - **Salted Fish**: Rapid growth in Thailand with successful product validation and channel construction [27] - **Ganyuan Foods**: Achieved overseas channel breakthroughs in Vietnam and plans to expand into Indonesia and Malaysia [28] - **Three Squirrels**: Aiming to establish factories in Southeast Asia while replicating its domestic high-end cost-effective strategy [29] - **Wei Long**: Focused on steady development in the spicy snack market, utilizing new media for brand building [30] - **Wancheng Group**: Considering overseas expansion as domestic growth slows, with potential for opening stores abroad [31] Additional Insights - The overall market in Southeast Asia is about one-third the size of China's market, presenting a significant growth opportunity for Chinese snack exports [18] - The trend of flavor snacks replacing traditional sugary snacks is evident, with flavor snacks projected to account for 37.3% of the market by 2024 [6][10] - The competitive landscape in Indonesia is fragmented, providing opportunities for Chinese companies to leverage innovative flavor products [9][19] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call regarding the opportunities and strategies for Chinese snack brands in the Southeast Asian market, highlighting both the potential and the challenges they face.

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported a decline in Q1 gross profit due to cost fluctuations, and future improvements are to be monitored [1][7] - The company aims to stabilize revenue performance through organizational adjustments and channel expansions [7] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 71.31 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 4.79%. Q1 2025 revenue is 15.71 billion, showing a decline of 13.76% year-on-year [6][7] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 is 8.49 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 5.82%. Q1 2025 net profit is 0.77 billion, down 67.88% year-on-year [6][7] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 10 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 4.97 billion, with a dividend payout ratio of 96.31% for 2024 [7] - The gross margin for 2024 is 28.78%, up 2.03 percentage points year-on-year, while Q1 2025 gross margin is 19.47%, down 10.96 percentage points year-on-year [7] Product Performance - In 2024, revenue from sunflower seeds, nuts, and other products was 43.82 billion, 19.24 billion, and 7.73 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.60%, 9.74%, and 8.04% [7] - The decline in Q1 2025 revenue is attributed to the timing of the Spring Festival, with expected double-digit declines in sunflower seed revenue and a larger decline in nuts [7] Market Position and Growth Potential - The company is expected to leverage its brand and channel advantages to increase market share in the sunflower seed business, while the nut business is anticipated to grow rapidly due to supply chain and channel strengths [7] - Long-term growth potential remains strong, supported by brand strength and channel expansion [7]