樊纲认为，当下更应强调需求侧改革。他在演讲中特别提到，社保制度的完善有助于消费的提高。"社 保是一个重要的问题，我们现在搞市场经济不可以没有社保，它涉及到基本的贫富差距的关系问题，涉 及到基本的社会稳定的问题。社保一点的变化可能影响整个消费的巨大变化。"（徐苑蕾） 责任编辑：郭栩彤 8月13日上午消息，2025博鳌房地产论坛于8月12日至15日在海南举行，中国经济体制改革研究会副会 长、国家高端智库中国深圳综合开发研究院院长樊纲发表《提振消费与宏观经济稳增长》主题演讲。 樊纲表示，中国经济长期以来的问题是消费需求不足，当产能迅速增长的时候就更加显示出消费需求的 不足。 谈及如何衡量消费需求的不足，樊纲表示，判断标准是消费在GDP中所占的比重，以及消费和储蓄相对 的比例关系。"我们的消费占GDP的比例是多少？如果加上政府的消费现在是65%左右，去掉政府的消 费15%左右，居民消费只有40%，美国这个数字是80%，其他一些发展中国家比如印度等是60%-70%左 右，我们只有40%，需求严重不足。" 樊纲谈到，长期以来，宏观经济政策强调供给侧改革，在供给侧提升生产力，这是多年的思维方式。这 种思维方式从过去短缺时代 ...

Group 1: Economic Transformation - China's economic development is heavily reliant on population dividends, with a significant amount of previously underutilized labor being mobilized post-reform, leading to substantial productivity gains[2] - The traditional mindset of prioritizing investment over consumption has resulted in production surplus and insufficient consumption, necessitating a shift towards demand-side reforms to stimulate domestic consumption[2][22] Group 2: Labor Value and Distribution - Labor value is crucial for ensuring fair distribution and promoting consumption, with initial distribution being the most fundamental aspect influenced by market forces[3][28] - The current labor market dynamics indicate a need to stabilize and enhance labor value, which is determined by the balance of power between labor and capital, influenced by supply and demand in the labor market[3][10] Group 3: Demand and Supply Dynamics - Labor demand is influenced by total demand, which includes both domestic and foreign components, with domestic demand being significantly affected by income distribution[4][34] - The reduction in labor supply is a prevailing trend, with a shrinking labor population and extended working hours contributing to a challenging employment landscape[6][43] Group 4: Policy Recommendations - Recent policies, such as the "Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption," aim to address the root causes of low consumption, emphasizing income growth and service sector development to enhance employment and consumption[9][65] - There is a pressing need for labor protection laws to mitigate excessive working hours, which exacerbate employment pressures and hinder job creation[8][64]

Group 1: Economic Transformation Insights - The core theme of the event was "Transforming Chinese Economy: Pathways and Prospects," focusing on macroeconomic background, opportunities, challenges, and policy directions [2] - Liu Qiao emphasized that China's strategy to maintain growth is through productivity enhancement, framing the US-China trade friction as a competition of total factor productivity (TFP) rather than a trade imbalance issue [4] - Liu Qiao noted that despite a decline in TFP growth, the "new quality productivity" strategy centered on technological innovation, industrial upgrading, and structural reform could restore TFP growth to 2%, supporting a sustainable GDP growth of 5% in the future [4] Group 2: Inflation and Demand Challenges - Color analyzed the current deflationary pressures in China, highlighting that both CPI and PPI are on a downward trend, with CPI recently turning negative, indicating increasing deflationary pressure [6] - The main causes of this deflation include strong supply capacity, weak demand, and tight monetary policy, with GDP growth projected at 5.3% and industrial value-added growth at 6.4% for the first half of 2025, while retail sales growth is only 5% [6][8] - Color pointed out that structural and long-term characteristics of deflation are evident, with traditional manufacturing facing overcapacity and a shift in demand towards high-end sectors [8] Group 3: Consumption and Trade Structure - Tang Yao focused on the need to develop consumer demand in China to lay a foundation for long-term economic growth, noting that while goods consumption is comparable to the US, service consumption is significantly lower [10] - The booming concert market and local sports leagues indicate a strong consumer willingness for service consumption, with the service sector seen as a key area for consumption growth [10] - Tang Yao observed that despite the turbulence caused by the Trump administration, global trade has shown resilience, with China's trade becoming more diversified and increasing integration with emerging economies [10]

Group 1 - The current economic situation is more complex than a decade ago, with issues extending from production to consumption, affecting PPI and CPI [3][5][6] - The decline in consumer confidence is linked to deteriorating asset-liability balances due to real estate downturns and corporate profit declines, leading to increased unemployment and suppressed consumption [5][11][12] - The need for reform is recognized, but a straightforward approach to reduce production capacity may not be feasible due to the current macroeconomic conditions [10][11][60] Group 2 - The shift in economic structure has led to a decrease in the demand for labor, with the service sector's share of GDP increasing significantly over the past nine years [12][14] - Demand-side reforms are considered more effective than supply-side reforms, as increasing demand is seen as a better solution than merely cutting production [15][39] - The current economic model shows a structural imbalance between consumption and investment, with a significant portion of economic benefits not reaching the average consumer [37][38] Group 3 - Stimulating consumer confidence is crucial, as current policies like subsidies may only provide temporary relief without addressing underlying issues [41][43] - The distribution of wealth and consumer spending power is highlighted as a key factor in improving consumption levels, with a focus on creating a more balanced distribution mechanism [43][49] - The stock market's potential to improve consumer sentiment is noted, as an increase in stock market participation could enhance the perception of economic stability [64][65]

Core Viewpoint - The proposal by Tsinghua University economist Li Daokui to issue 1 trillion yuan in consumer subsidies has sparked debate, with supporters calling it a "precise market rescue" and opponents questioning its effectiveness in addressing fundamental issues in the economy [1]. Group 1: Subsidy Mechanism and Multiplicative Effect - Li Daokui's logic is based on the "subsidy multiplier effect," suggesting that a 1 yuan fiscal subsidy could stimulate 4 yuan in consumer spending, with a potential 200 billion yuan investment leading to a total consumption increase of 1 trillion yuan [3]. - Historical data from cities like Hangzhou and Shanghai indicate that consumption vouchers have achieved a multiplier effect of 3-4 times, with even higher effects in less developed areas [3]. Group 2: Challenges to the Subsidy Logic - Consumer willingness has a "ceiling," as evidenced by a 13%-14% year-on-year decline in retail sales in Beijing and Shanghai in 2024, indicating that subsidies may only be used for necessities rather than stimulating large-scale consumption [4]. - There is a structural imbalance where high-income groups have low marginal propensity to consume, while low-income groups are constrained by savings and debt, leading to a situation where subsidies may convert into savings rather than spending [4]. Group 3: Consumption Decline in Major Cities - In 2024, retail sales in Beijing and Shanghai fell by 2.8%-3.1%, despite a 6.8% growth in service consumption, highlighting three paradoxes: high income does not equate to high consumption, service consumption upgrades are misaligned with traditional retail data, and online consumption is replacing offline without adequate digital transformation [6]. Group 4: Policy Tools for Stimulating Consumption - The debate on stimulating consumption has led to differing opinions on policy tools: direct cash payments are effective in the short term but may lead to inflation, while increasing income is a long-term solution that takes time to implement [9]. - A combination of short-term vouchers and long-term income increases is suggested, including targeted subsidies for durable goods and tax reforms to expand the middle-income group [10]. Group 5: Policy Recommendations - Recommendations include precise distribution of consumption vouchers, addressing barriers in service consumption, promoting "lifestyle entrepreneurship," and enhancing digital infrastructure for offline merchants [12]. Group 6: Conclusion on Subsidy Effectiveness - While subsidies are not a panacea, they may be a necessary step in transitioning China's economy from investment-driven to consumption-driven, with the potential to alleviate inventory pressures and boost market confidence in the short term [14].