人民币汇率强势升破6.98：多因素共振下的"破7"新周期？ 2026年底目标价6.75，主要逻辑为贸易顺差扩大与资本账户开放加速。结语：汇率市场化改革的里程碑意义人民币汇率突破 6.98关口，不仅是技术性升值，更是汇率形成机制市场化的胜利。当中间价与市场价价差收窄、企业行为趋于理性、跨境资 本流动更趋平衡，中国资本市场的"防火墙"功能显著增强。这场升值浪潮揭示了一个新趋势：在"双循环"战略下，人民币正 从"被动跟随"转向"主动定价"，其国际化进程与经济高质量发展形成共振。对于企业和投资者而言，适应双向波动、善用衍 生工具、聚焦基本面，将成为应对新时代汇率变局的关键。 2026年1月5日，人民币兑美元汇率在岸市场报收6.9806，连续两日突破6.98关口，创2023年5月以来新高。离岸人民币 （CNH）同步走强至6.9770，较2025年低点累计升值超4200个基点。这场由内外因素共同驱动的汇率升值浪潮，不仅打破 了"7.0心理关口"的魔咒，更引发市场对人民币进入"新升值周期"的热议。从美元信用动摇到中国经济韧性显现，从政策调控 到市场行为转变，人民币升值的底层逻辑正在发生深刻变化。一、外部驱动：美元霸权动摇与 ...

1 构建特色国际化发展路径 演绎新时代"海上丝绸之路" 广东期货市场的国际化征程，始终扎根于实体产业与金融创新共生共荣的沃土。粤港澳大湾区独有的制度优势，如同精密的棱镜，将境内外资本、技术、产 业的要素流动折射出多元可能，为广东期货市场链接全球搭建了天然桥梁。 "作为经济大省、制造业大省、科技创新大省，广东牢牢坚持实体经济为本、制造业当家的方针，已基本构建起现代化产业体系的'四梁八柱'，成为中国对 接全球贸易、参与国际分工的核心枢纽。"广发期货总经理徐艳卫表示，广东地处南海之滨，毗邻港澳，便于发展对外贸易、参与国际分工。国家层面的开 放政策、大湾区特有的便利化措施以及本地金融机构的专业服务，为国际投资者的资金汇出入、外汇风险管理等提供了更多便利。相关外汇管理政策便是例 证，其目的正是为符合要求的跨境证券投资提供更高效的资金结算服务。 依托这片经济沃土，广东当地的期货经营机构正以"排头兵"姿态，将业务触角伸向全球市场，成为推动广东期货市场国际化的核心力量。 作为期货行业国际化发展的先行者，广发期货始终以服务实体经济为宗旨，探索特色国际化发展路径。从2006年广发期货（香港）有限公司（下称"广发期 货香港"）成为 ...

想想看，2025年这个年头，美国人居然在自家论坛上纠结这么个问题，总觉得有点讽刺。明明全球经济风起云涌，中美贸易摩擦闹得沸沸扬扬，他们却还停 留在那种老想法里，以为中国经济全靠着美国市场吃饭。 要是真这么简单，世界早就不转了。现实呢？中国这些年早就把路子走宽了，从制造业到全球贸易，底子打得结实。咱们一步步聊聊这事，看看数据说话， 谁更离不开谁。 先说说背景，这问题不是凭空冒出来的。2025年特朗普上台后，关税战又升级，美国对华加征关税，搞得双边贸易额直线下滑。根据海关总署数据，今年1 到11月，中国对美出口3859亿美元，比去年同期降了18.9%，进口1287亿美元，也降了点。但你看，总出口额呢？ 前11个月中国进出口总值5.75万亿美元，顺差超1万亿美元，创了历史新高。这说明啥？对美出口占比已经降到11.4%，比去年14.7%低多了，三年前16.3%， 更不用提2015到2018年的近20%。 中国出口结构在变，对美依赖越来越小，转向东盟、欧盟、拉美和非洲这些地方。东盟现在是中国最大贸易伙伴，出口增速稳稳的6.2%以上。 为什么能这样？根子在中国制造业的实力上。世界银行数据显示，中国制造业增加值占全球31. ...

近日，海南自由贸易港正式启动全岛封关运作。 这一历史性节点不仅标志着中国对外开放进入全新阶段，更在全球贸易格局重塑的关键时刻，向世界释放出一个清晰信号：中国正以海南为支点，打造面 向太平洋与印度洋的开放门户。 社交媒体上，"海南封关"迅速登上热搜；工商注册数据显示，近期海南日均新增企业超千家。这背后，是资本、人才与政策红利的集中涌动。尤其在海洋 物流、转口贸易、国际集散与加工增值等领域，海南正展现出令人瞩目的爆发力，甚至被部分国际观察家称为"下一个新加坡"。 那么，海南的竞争力究竟有多强？它真能挑战甚至超越新加坡的地位吗？更重要的是，这场宏大的制度变革，又将如何惠及普通内地百姓的生活？ 海南海洋物流迅速崛起 所谓"封关"，并非字面意义上的"封闭岛屿"，而是指将海南全岛建成一个海关监管特殊区域，实行"一线放开、二线管住、岛内自由"的新型监管模式。 "一线" 指海南与境外之间的边界，实施高度自由化政策，货物、资金、人员、数据可便捷进出；"二线"指海南与内地之间的边界，对进入内地的货物按 一般贸易管理，确保自贸港政策红利不外溢；"岛内自由"则意味着在海南内部，要素流动几乎无壁垒，企业可高效配置全球资源。 这一制度设 ...

（原标题：刘英：引领中国开放范式升级，海南自贸港深挖中国—东盟合作潜力） 南方财经21世纪经济报道记者郑青亭、实习生陈颖 北京报道 12月18日，海南自由贸易港正式启动全岛封关运作。分析认为，海南自由贸易港的封关运作不仅标志着 中国最高水平开放形态的实践迈入新阶段，也将成为推动区域合作的关键平台。? "当前中国—东盟自贸区已升级至3.0版，RCEP（区域全面经济伙伴关系协定）也已落地生效多年，海 南可依托自由贸易示范区的战略定位，以制度创新降低区域合作的制度性成本，为中国东盟共同体建设 及区域合作深化提供可复制的中国方案。"12月23日，中国人民大学重阳金融研究院研究员刘英在接受 21世纪经济报道记者专访时说道。 针对海南自贸港的战略意义、独特优势、封关后的新发展特征及区域合作路径等问题，刘英在采访中一 一做出回应。她强调，明年在深圳举办的APEC峰会也将为海南自贸港在规则对接、区域合作等领域拓 展实践空间提供重要契机，有望释放更大合作潜力。 刘英指出，海南自贸港全岛封关运作不仅是我国推动规则、规制、管理、标准高水平对外开放的关键举 措，更凸显了制度型开放的战略价值。面对外部环境的不确定性，高标准建设海南自贸 ...

Core Viewpoint - Temu has rapidly achieved in three years what Pinduoduo accomplished in ten years, positioning itself as a new engine for global e-commerce growth, with plans to create a dual growth model alongside Pinduoduo in the next three years [1][5]. Group 1: Temu's Growth and Market Position - Temu's global downloads surpassed 1.2 billion, with monthly active users reaching 530 million, making it the top e-commerce app in terms of downloads and user growth [3][4]. - The platform has effectively integrated resources from millions of small and medium-sized factories in China, enabling a rapid response to market demands and achieving significant efficiency in inventory turnover [12][14]. - Temu's business model leverages extreme cost performance, full-service management, algorithmic recommendations, and social sharing to replicate the successful domestic e-commerce ecosystem in international markets [2][5]. Group 2: Supply Chain and Strategic Focus - Pinduoduo's strategy emphasizes deep integration with the Chinese supply chain, aiming to leverage its unique industrial efficiency to create a new global commercial system [11][14]. - The company is transitioning from a focus on traffic to enhancing supply chain capabilities, which is seen as essential for future growth and competitiveness in the e-commerce sector [16][20]. - Pinduoduo's initiatives, such as "hundred billion subsidies" and "new quality supply," aim to promote the transformation of traditional manufacturing into a more innovative and quality-focused model [20]. Group 3: Impact on Chinese Manufacturing - Temu represents a new driving force for Chinese exports, shifting from merely exporting goods to exporting business models, thus marking a significant upgrade in foreign trade [5][14]. - The platform's success has accelerated the development of local industries, such as the eyelash manufacturing sector in Shandong, demonstrating the potential for rapid growth through e-commerce [19]. - By utilizing digital integration capabilities, Pinduoduo is enhancing traditional manufacturing to meet new quality supply standards, thereby fostering innovation and responsiveness to consumer demands [19][20].

2018年那场风暴来得猝不及防，却埋下了此后七年世界格局重塑的种子。 没人能想到，一场关税争端会一步步演变成全球权力结构的重新洗牌。 到了2025年，当美国单方面宣布暂停对华加征关税——哪怕只是名义上"暂停一年"——整个国际社会其实都心知肚明：这场持续七年的贸易战，本质上已 经结束了。 不是靠谈判桌上的妥协，而是靠实力的此消彼长。 中国没靠谁施舍，也没靠谁让步，而是靠着一条完整、自主、不断进化的工业与科技体系，一步步走到世界舞台中央。 这不是宣传口径，是看得见摸得着的事实。 先说关税战。 美国2018年启动对华加征关税，最初打的旗号是"纠正贸易失衡""保护知识产权""遏制产业补贴"。 听上去冠冕堂皇，可实际操作下来，效果适得其反。 中国出口没被压垮，反而在压力下加速转型。 而美国自己，消费者承担了绝大多数新增成本，中小企业供应链被打乱，通胀压力逐年累积。 到了2024年下半年，美联储连续加息已难以为继，经济增速明显放缓，财政赤字高企，民众对物价的抱怨越来越响。 这时候，白宫内部其实早有声音主张缓和对华经贸关系。 但真正推动"暂停"落地的，是更现实的判断：继续打下去，美国输得更快。 尤其关键的一点是，2025年 ...

站在新的发展起点，要将制度创新贯穿区域发展全过程，通过市场化、法治化、国际化的制度体系建 设，激活区域发展内生动力，为全面建设社会主义现代化国家注入强劲动能。 制度创新不是雕琢"盆景"，而是要打造改革探索的"试验田"。浦东作为社会主义现代化建设引领区，其 制度创新始终立足全国大局，3项国家战略任务落地率达93%，11条改革举措被国家发展改革委复制推 广。这种"先行先试—总结提炼—全国推广"的模式，既让区域发展抢占先机，又为全国改革提供了风险 可控、行之有效的实践样本。在当前复杂的国际环境下，唯有通过制度创新推动高水平开放，才能实 现"引进来"与"走出去"双向赋能。浦东搭建海外服务网络、国别中心平台等举措，正是制度创新服务双 循环战略的生动实践。 从宏观来看，推动制度创新引领区域高质量发展，需把握3个关键点：一是聚焦战略需求，围绕科技创 新、产业升级、对外开放等重点领域，推出更具突破性的制度举措，加快培育新质生产力；二是强化系 统集成，打破部门壁垒，推动改革举措协同发力，形成制度创新合力；三是坚持试点先行，鼓励有条件 的区域勇闯改革"深水区"，及时总结推广成功经验。同时，要建立制度创新容错纠错机制，为改革探索 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for government bonds is bearish [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the bond market turned from bullish to bearish, mainly due to the reversal of the macro - narrative. Looking ahead to 2026, inflation will moderately rebound, the equity market will continue to suppress bonds, the bond market will show a bearish steepening trend, and the futures rhythm will be similar to an "M" shape. Strategies such as short - selling on rallies, short - hedging, and steepening the curve are recommended [1][2][3][4] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 2025 National Debt Trend Review - The bond market turned bearish in 2025, with the whole - year market divided into five stages. The change in the macro - narrative was the core reason for the bear market [14][21] - The yield curve first flattened and then steepened. The basis spread had a relatively low central level overall, with a phased increase during market adjustments [17][18] 3.2 Policy Foundation of the Positive Macro - Narrative: Dual - Circulation Strategy 3.2.1 Policy Ideas of the Dual - Circulation Strategy - Proposed in 2020 to cope with economic challenges, it aims to optimize supply, improve corporate profits, and gradually form stable growth and moderate inflation through measures like developing technology, anti - involution, investing in people, and promoting "Belt and Road" and RMB trade [24][27][31] 3.2.2 Fiscal and Monetary Policy Ideas under the Dual - Circulation Strategy - Fiscal policy is generally positive but will increase moderately and make decisions based on the situation. Fiscal expenditure is shifting towards high - tech industries, people's livelihood, and resolving local government hidden debts [38][40] - Monetary policy will actively cooperate with fiscal policy, maintaining a low - interest - rate environment cautiously, gradually shifting to asset - price transmission, and building a RMB sovereign credit system [40][43] 3.3 Outlook for 2026: Moderate Rebound in Inflation 3.3.1 Supply - side Clearance: De - investment and De - capacity - In 2026, anti - involution policies will expand. The effectiveness of these policies is already visible, and manufacturing investment growth will have a low central level, optimized structure, and a front - low and back - high rhythm [45][48][49] 3.3.2 Real Estate Still a Drag, but Year - on - Year Decline in Data Expected to Narrow - Real estate data weakened again in 2025. Policy thinking is changing, with long - term transformation as the main focus and short - term support as a supplement. Real estate data may still weaken month - on - month, but the year - on - year decline is expected to narrow [50][53][57] 3.3.3 External Demand is the Most Important Force to Offset Real Estate - China's export growth exceeded expectations in 2025. In 2026, global terminal demand is relatively strong, and emerging demand is booming. The export growth rate is expected to remain high, with ASEAN, the EU, and Africa continuing to drive exports [58][62][65] 3.3.4 Overseas Inflation will Moderately Transmit to the Domestic Market - Overseas inflation has an upward risk, but the transmission to the domestic market is moderate. Overall, domestic prices have the impetus to rise moderately in 2026, and the bond market will remain weak [66][71][72] 3.4 The Equity Market will Continue to Suppress Bonds 3.4.1 The Logic of the Technology Narrative is Hard to Be Falsified in the Short Term - The trading theme may shift to Sino - US technological competition in 2026. The technology narrative is difficult to be falsified, and the bull market in Chinese technology stocks is expected to continue [74][76][77] 3.4.2 The Stock Market is Likely to Remain in a Bull Market in 2026 - The stock market is expected to shift from the first stage (fund - driven) to the second stage (inflation and profit - driven) in 2026. With the weakening of the US dollar index, overseas funds will flow back, and policy support will continue, so the bull market is likely to continue, suppressing the bond market [78][80][86] 3.5 The Bond Market will Show a Bearish Steepening Trend, and the Futures Rhythm will be Similar to an "M" Shape 3.5.1 Short - term Bonds are Relatively Stable, Determined by Monetary Policy and Funds - Monetary policy in 2026 will remain "moderately loose," with one expected interest rate cut of 10BP and one reserve requirement ratio cut of 50BP. Short - term bond interest rates are expected to be relatively stable, with the 1Y Treasury bond interest rate centered around 1.3% [90][91][94] 3.5.2 Long - term Bonds Face Supply - Demand Imbalance, and the Curve will Steepen with Volatility - Long - term bonds are more sensitive to inflation and the stock market. The supply - demand imbalance in the long - term bond market is obvious. The 10Y Treasury bond interest rate is expected to reach a high of around 2.0%, and the 30Y Treasury bond interest rate may reach a high of 2.5% - 2.6% [95][98][113] 3.5.3 Treasury Bond Futures will have a Winding Trend, Similar to an "M" Shape - The trend of the bond market in 2026 will be winding. It is expected to strengthen from the beginning of the year to before the Spring Festival, decline from after the Spring Festival to the end of Q2 with possible rebounds due to interest rate cuts, have increased volatility in Q3 with a slowing pace of interest rate increase, and show an uncertain trend in Q4, generally similar to an "M" shape [114][115][116] 3.6 Treasury Bond Futures Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral strategy: Short - sell Treasury bond futures on rallies [119] - Spot - futures strategy: Pay high attention to short - hedging strategies [120] - Curve strategy: Pay attention to strategies such as steepening the 10Y - 1Y curve and going long on 3T and short on TL [121]

2025年4月2日，特朗普签署了对等关税的行政命令。所谓对等关税看似是强硬举措，但实际上不过是美国的自我满足。对中国商品征收高达125%的关税， 不但没能动摇中国经济，反而导致了美国国内的通货膨胀飙升，股市大幅下跌。数据显示，对等关税宣布后的两天（4月3日和4日），美股市值蒸发了近6.5 万亿美元（约合人民币47万亿元）。与此同时，中国通过六年精心布局的双循环战略，成功将内需对经济增长的贡献提升至60.5%，并大幅降低了对美国出 口的依赖（2024年对美出口占比降至14.7%）。相比之下，美国则由于供应链断裂、消费者负担增加，陷入了孤立困境。随着经济形势愈加严峻，五角大楼 急于在中国家门口摆出威风，通过海、陆、空、天的联合军演来增加对中国的军事威胁。然而，这种关税战打不赢就动武的思维，却暴露了美国战略焦虑的 根本：当经济手段失效后，军事威胁成为美国维护霸权的最后王牌。但美国无论如何也不敢对中国发动热战，因为一旦失败，后果将是无法挽回的深渊。 二、美军新一轮军演的野心 根据美国战区网站（theWarZone，TWZ）的报道，美国海军作战部长办公室参谋部主任迈克尔·博伊尔中将日前透露，美国国防 部正在调整美军联合 ...