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新能源及有色金属日报:台风天气下,镍不锈钢走势平稳-20250925
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-25 05:27
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the nickel market, after the impact of macro - events ends, nickel prices will return to the fundamental logic. With high inventories and an unchanged supply surplus pattern, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. For the stainless - steel market, although inventory has decreased for eleven consecutive weeks and material costs have risen, the overall demand recovery is not obvious, so stainless - steel prices are expected to mainly show an interval oscillation trend [3][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On September 24, 2025, the main contract 2511 of Shanghai nickel opened at 121,150 yuan/ton and closed at 121,450 yuan/ton, a change of 0.23% from the previous trading day's closing. The trading volume was 107,755 (+54,856) lots, and the open interest was 85,526 (+1,266) lots. The main contract price showed a slight upward trend, with strong night - session performance, morning - session oscillation, and slight afternoon fluctuations. Fed Chairman Powell's speech may support nickel prices [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: A new round of quotes was released. The FOB price of the 1.3% nickel ore from the Philippines' CNC mine was 31 dollars, and the CIF prices of the 1.4% nickel ore from the Philippines to Indonesia were 50.5 and 51.5 dollars respectively. Typhoon weather affected nickel ore unloading in some coastal areas. Philippine mine quotes remained firm, and shipments from areas like Surigao were not affected. Downstream iron plants still had losses and were cautious in purchasing nickel ore. In Indonesia, the nickel ore market supply remained in a loose pattern, with the September (Phase II) domestic trade benchmark price rising by 0.2 - 0.3 dollars, and the domestic trade premium remaining at +24, with a premium range of +23 - 24 [1]. - **Spot**: The sales price of Jinchuan Group in the Shanghai market was 123,700 yuan/ton, up 700 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading cooled slightly, and the spot premiums and discounts of each brand remained stable. The premium of Jinchuan nickel was 2,350 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel was 300 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 24,971 (-493) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 230,586 (+132) tons [2]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Mainly conduct range operations. There are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On September 24, 2025, the main contract 2511 of stainless steel opened at 12,905 yuan/ton and closed at 12,895 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 122,330 (-16,687) lots, and the open interest was 116,704 (-4,171) lots. The opening price was the same as the previous day's settlement price. The night - session continued the previous day's strong trend, but the day - session weakened rapidly after opening, with the lowest point reaching 12,870 yuan/ton. In the afternoon, it oscillated in the range of 12,890 - 12,900 yuan/ton. The closing price was 10 yuan lower than the previous trading day, and the fluctuation range was only 80 yuan, indicating little difference between long and short in the market. Typhoon "Huajiaisha" led to the suspension of pick - up in Foshan, resulting in a significant decrease in trading volume [3][4]. - **Spot**: Downstream remained in a wait - and - see state, and market confidence was insufficient, resulting in light spot trading. The pre - National Day holiday stocking demand was not obvious, which was also affected by the typhoon weather to some extent. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,200 (+0) yuan/ton, and that in the Foshan market was 13,200 (+0) yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B were 315 - 615 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron remained unchanged at 955.0 yuan/nickel point [4]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Neutral. There are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [5].