Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The copper market is affected by the US's 50% tariff on copper imports. The US copper inventory is high, and the rigid import demand in the second half of the year is low. The trade structure of South American countries may be pressured, and the low inventory in China and LME may rebound in the third quarter [1] - The aluminum supply increases slightly, and the demand is expected to weaken seasonally in July. The short - term fundamentals are acceptable, and attention should be paid to the demand and low - inventory trading opportunities [1] - The zinc price fluctuates widely. The supply is expected to increase, the demand is seasonally weak, and there is a risk of a short squeeze in overseas markets. The strategy is to short zinc, hold long - short positions between domestic and overseas markets, and pay attention to positive spreads between months [2] - The nickel supply is at a high level, the demand is weak, and the short - term fundamentals are average. Opportunities for the contraction of the nickel - stainless steel price ratio can be continued to be monitored [7] - The stainless - steel fundamentals are weak, with supply cuts, mainly rigid demand, and expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [11] - The lead price回调s slightly. The supply and demand in July are expected to be weak, and it is expected to oscillate in the range of 17100 - 17500 next week [13] - The tin price fluctuates widely. The supply may decline, the demand is expected to slow down, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [15] - The industrial silicon production is expected to decline, the market changes from inventory accumulation to inventory reduction, and the futures price is expected to oscillate [19] - The lithium carbonate futures price rebounds. The short - term supply and demand are strong, and the absolute price is expected to oscillate, with the downward inflection point depending on inventory accumulation [21] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 7 - 11, 2025, the spot premium of Shanghai copper decreased by 50, the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 1578 tons, and the LME inventory increased by 625 tons [1] - **Market Impact**: Trump's announcement of a 50% tariff on copper imports led to a 16% increase in COMEX copper. The US has filled its annual rigid import gap, and the tariff impact on CL spread may not be fully priced. The trade structure of South American countries may change, and the low inventory in China and LME may rebound in the third quarter [1] Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 7 - 11, 2025, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price fluctuated slightly, the social inventory decreased by 10,000 tons, and the LME inventory increased by 4550 tons [1] - **Market Situation**: The supply increased slightly, the demand is expected to weaken seasonally in July, and the short - term fundamentals are acceptable [1] Zinc - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 7 - 11, 2025, the zinc price fluctuated, the social inventory increased by 0.05 million tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 350 tons [2] - **Market Situation**: The supply is expected to increase, the domestic demand is seasonally weak, the overseas demand is weak but there is a short - squeeze risk, and the recommended strategies are shorting, long - short between domestic and overseas, and positive spreads between months [2] Nickel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 7 - 11, 2025, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained stable, the Shanghai nickel spot price increased by 1550 yuan/ton, and the LME inventory increased by 1440 tons [7] - **Market Situation**: The supply is at a high level, the demand is weak, the LME premium is slightly stronger, and the short - term fundamentals are average [7] Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 7 - 11, 2025, the prices of 304 cold - rolled, 304 hot - rolled, etc. remained stable, and the price of scrap stainless steel increased by 50 yuan/ton [11] - **Market Situation**: The supply has been cut since late May, the demand is mainly rigid, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [11] Lead - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 7 - 11, 2025, the lead price decreased slightly, the social inventory increased by 1846 tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 3000 tons [12][23] - **Market Situation**: The supply and demand in July are expected to be weak, and it is expected to oscillate in the range of 17100 - 17500 next week [13] Tin - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 7 - 11, 2025, the spot import and export earnings fluctuated, the LME inventory decreased by 45 tons, and the LME注销仓单 decreased by 20 tons [14] - **Market Situation**: The supply may decline, the demand is expected to slow down, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [15] Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 7 - 11, 2025, the basis of 421 in Yunnan and Sichuan and 553 in East China and Tianjin changed, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 315 [19] - **Market Situation**: The production is expected to decline, the market changes from inventory accumulation to inventory reduction, and the futures price is expected to oscillate [19] Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 7 - 11, 2025, the SMM electric and industrial carbon prices increased slightly, the basis of the main and near - month contracts changed, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1588 [21] - **Market Situation**: The futures price rebounds, the short - term supply and demand are strong, the social inventory pressure accumulates, and the absolute price is expected to oscillate [21]