需求端政策松绑

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戴德梁行:需求端政策持续松绑,助推大湾区内地城市住宅销售
Nan Fang Du Shi Bao· 2025-07-30 02:40
Core Viewpoint - The report by JLL highlights the recovery and stabilization of the real estate market in the Greater Bay Area's mainland cities, driven by policy easing and financial support for developers [1][3]. Residential Market Summary - In the first quarter, the overall sales figures and prices of new residential properties performed well, but the market sentiment weakened in April due to the instability caused by the trade war, leading to a cautious buyer attitude [3][4]. - Overall new residential sales in the Greater Bay Area increased by 3% year-on-year in the first half of the year [3]. - The average monthly new residential transactions are expected to reach 27,000 to 28,000 in the second half, with an annual total projected at around 300,000 units; however, there is a potential price decline of up to 5% for the year [4]. Commercial Property Investment Summary - The attitude of property owners has shifted to a more pragmatic approach, with industrial logistics transactions accounting for over 50% of the market in the first half of 2025, including significant deals in large logistics asset packages [3][5]. - The community commercial sector is gaining traction, with stable rental yield projects attracting investor interest, suggesting a potential increase in quality commercial asset transactions in the second half of the year [3][5]. - The logistics and commercial sectors are expected to outperform other segments, driven by strong demand from the expanding cross-border e-commerce market [4][5]. Market Outlook - The easing of demand-side policies and the construction of quality housing are anticipated to release pent-up demand for both rigid and improved housing [3]. - The implementation of special bond storage and acquisition of residential properties is expected to alleviate financial pressures on developers and promote a balance between supply and demand in the real estate market [3]. - Despite the anticipated recovery, market confidence is expected to take time to restore, with ongoing uncertainties likely to maintain a cautious atmosphere into the third quarter [4].