Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in tin prices is attributed to a combination of macroeconomic pressures, ongoing supply disruptions, and structural demand differentiation in the market [1] Macroeconomic Factors - The US Markit Manufacturing PMI for August is reported at 54.5, exceeding expectations and indicating the fastest expansion since 2022, which has strengthened the US dollar and put pressure on commodity prices [1] - The imposition of tariffs by the US has increased market uncertainty, leading to a decline in major US stock indices and a cautious trading environment [1] Supply Side Analysis - Global tin supply is heavily concentrated in countries like Myanmar and Indonesia, with production dynamics in these countries directly impacting market supply [1] - Myanmar's production recovery is hindered by slow infrastructure repairs and labor shortages, resulting in lower-than-expected output [1] - Indonesia's refined tin export quotas are subject to domestic policy changes, adding to supply uncertainty [1] - The overall quality of global tin resources is declining, leading to increased mining costs and the exit of smaller mines due to financial and technical constraints [2] Demand Side Analysis - Traditional demand from the electronics sector is weakening due to slower product iterations, particularly in smartphones and tablets, leading to reduced solder demand [1] - Conversely, emerging sectors such as electric vehicle battery manufacturing and photovoltaic component soldering are experiencing rapid growth in tin demand, particularly driven by global clean energy policies [1] Industry Chain Dynamics - Upstream tin mining companies face dual pressures from rising costs and resource depletion, necessitating increased investment in technology [2] - Midstream smelting companies are experiencing fluctuating operating rates due to unstable supply, leading to reduced processing fees and profit margins [2] - Downstream manufacturing companies are compelled to control costs and explore alternative materials, although the short-term irreplaceability of tin in key applications remains significant [2] Short-term Outlook - Tin prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term, influenced by the recovery progress in major producing countries and the stability of Indonesia's export policies, alongside the unexpected growth in demand from new energy and photovoltaic sectors [3] - If supply disruptions ease and emerging demand continues to grow, tin prices may find support; conversely, if supply increases unexpectedly while demand growth slows, prices could face downward pressure [3]