中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2026-01-08 供应扰动忧虑继续，基本金属维持强势 有⾊观点：供应扰动忧虑继续，基本⾦属维持强势 交易逻辑：美联储独立性受损及弱美元预期仍在发酵；12月10-11日中央 经济工作会议召开，定调较为积极，继续"国补"，12月31日财政部确认 26年第一批625亿元两新补贴资金拨付；元旦期间，美国打击委内瑞拉， 整体上看，宏观面预期有反复，但稳定。原料端延续偏紧局面，铜陵有色 公告米拉多铜矿二期延期；冶炼端仍有扰动预期，整体供应端支撑较强。 初端开工环比继续走弱；终端，伴随着两新支持资金到位，家电、汽车和 消费电子等终端消费或有望改善，远期供需仍有收紧预期。整体来看，中 短期，弱美元预期+供应扰动担忧逻辑没变，现实弱需求影响有限，供应 扰动担忧继续推高基本金属，继续关注铜铝锡低吸做多机会；长期，国内 潜在增量刺激政策预期仍在，并且铜铝锡供应扰动问题仍在，供需仍有趋 紧预期，看好铜铝锡价格走势。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 ⻛险提⽰：供应扰动；国内政策刺激超预期；美联储鸽派不及预期； 国内需求复苏不及预期；经济衰退。 有⾊与新材料团队 研究员： 郑非凡 从业资 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2026-01-06 供应扰动忧虑继续，基本金属大幅走高 有⾊观点：供应扰动忧虑继续，基本⾦属⼤幅⾛⾼ 交易逻辑：美联储独立性受损及弱美元预期仍在发酵；12月10-11日中央 经济工作会议召开，定调较为积极，继续"国补"，12月31日财政部确认 26年第一批625亿元两新补贴资金拨付；元旦期间，美国打击委内瑞拉， 整体上看，宏观面预期有反复，但稳定。原料端延续偏紧局面，铜陵有色 公告米拉多铜矿二期延期；冶炼端仍有扰动预期，整体供应端支撑较强。 初端开工环比继续走弱；终端，伴随着两新支持资金到位，家电、汽车和 消费电子等终端消费或有望改善，远期供需仍有收紧预期。整体来看，中 短期，弱美元预期+供应扰动担忧逻辑没变，现实弱需求影响有限，供应 扰动担忧继续推高基本金属，继续关注铜铝锡低吸做多机会；长期，国内 潜在增量刺激政策预期仍在，并且铜铝锡供应扰动问题仍在，供需仍有趋 紧预期，看好铜铝锡价格走势。 铜观点：供应收缩预期较强，铜价延续⾼位运⾏。 氧化铝观点：成本⽀撑有效性较弱，氧化铝价仍旧承压。 铝观点：资⾦情绪乐观，铝价⼤幅上⾏。 铝 ...

新能源及有色金属月报 | 2026-01-04 3. 加工端，12 月锡加工环节呈现因价高抑制需求而导致被动累库的特征。焊锡条（Sn99.3Cu0.7）加工费环比持平 于 9 000元/吨至9 500 元/吨，但贸易商反馈订单量环比下滑 12%，中小型焊料厂因现金流紧张减少 15–20% 采购； 无铅锡膏受消费电子低迷拖累，龙头企业出货量环比降 8%，仅光伏焊带用高银锡膏保持 3% 小幅增长。镀锡板 方面，宝钢、河钢 12 月出厂价上调 300 元/吨，但终端罐头食品厂因高价缩减 10% 节前备货，马口铁社会库存 升至 18 个月高位；锡合金（巴氏合金、铅锡阳极）受铅价走弱拖累，订单环比持平。进入 1 月，焊料企业春节 放假较往年提前 3至5 天，预计加工品需求再降 8–10%。而光伏 TOPCon 与 HJT 新扩 4 GW 产能将在 1 月下旬 陆续投料，光伏焊带需求有望环比回升 5%，部分对冲传统焊料淡季缺口，加工费大概率持稳。 4. 终端方面，12 月终端消费传统需求偏冷、新兴能源呈现向好的格局。消费电子领域，手机出货量 2 800 万部， 环比降 7%，TWS 耳机、笔记本电脑库存天数分别升至 11 ...

今日午盘后沪锡走势：今日沪锡合约2602先扬后抑，开盘价报327910元/吨，盘中最高报331950元/吨， 最低报319330元/吨，结算价报326370元/吨，收盘报322920元/吨，下跌1460元，跌幅0.45%；沪锡主力 月2602合约成交量297836手，持仓量37828手，较前一日减少5841手。 今日现货锡价走势：据长江有色金属网获悉，12月31日ccmn长江综合市场1#锡价报324400元/吨-327400 元/吨，均价报325900元/吨,较前一日价格上涨4300元；今日长江现货市场1#锡价报325000元/吨-327000 元/吨，均价326000元/吨，较上一交易日价格上涨4250元/吨。 短期（节前）：预计锡价将延续震荡调整态势，下行压力主要来自库存累积与年末资金离场，但下方空 间受成本及长期逻辑限制。 中长期：待季节性淡季结束、库存出现明确去化拐点后，市场焦点将重回供应弹性不足与新兴需求增长 的逻辑，价格有望回归基本面驱动的偏强格局。当前阶段，投资者宜保持谨慎，轻仓观望，重点关注节 后库存去化速度与下游订单恢复情况。 本观点仅供参考，不做操盘指引（长江有色金属网www.ccmn.c ...

为320,750-322,750元/吨，较前一日下跌22,250元/吨，跌幅显著。当前价格处于高位回调阶段，短期走 势呈现明显下跌趋势。 今日锡价走势趋势 据长江有色金属网获悉，截至12月30日，长江现货1#锡价格 中游（贸易流通）投机情绪明显退潮，市场从"囤货待涨"转向"出货避险"，整体流动性趋于收缩。 需求端：传统消费电子、镀锡板等行业需求持续疲软，新兴领域（如AI服务器、新能源汽车）需求增 长有限，且高锡价抑制下游采购，整体需求偏弱。 当前锡产业链在价格剧烈波动下面临显著分化： 上游（矿山、冶炼）虽受益于前期高价，但需应对价格大幅波动带来的生产计划干扰，且长期面临资源 品位下降的挑战。 宏观面：今日锡价上演"高台跳水"，其急速暴跌是 "预期故事、资金情绪与产业现实"三者同步反转的 结果。前期支撑价格上涨的 "AI算力驱动需求"的故事泡沫率先破裂，投机资金集体撤离；年末宏观情 绪骤变，机构获利了结与交易所上调保证金触发了连锁抛售潮；而最根本的动因在于产业基本面恶化： 印尼、缅甸等主产区供应边际恢复，而下游电子、焊料行业在"原料买不起、订单不敢接"的高价反噬下 需求萎靡，导致社会库存连续累积，供需格局正从" ...

记者丨 董鹏 编辑丨朱益民 12月23日，中国有色金属工业协会锡业分会（下称"锡业分会"）的倡议书在业内广泛流传。 近期， 作为"算力金属"的关键材料的锡价，在刚果（金）延长锡等金属手工矿6个月禁令和当 地M23冲突持续，以及缅甸矿区复产缓慢等多重因素作用下屡创新高。 2025年12月以来， 伦锡累计涨幅达到11.5%，沪锡涨幅超13%，短短半个月时间每吨锡上涨 超4万元。 21世纪经济报道记者从业内了解到，与其他有色金属行业相似，锡行业上游主要生产企业积极 参与衍生品市场套期保值，下游终端中小企业参与有待提升，在近期锡价的上行过程中，部分 下游企业在经营中感受到了压力。 对此上述倡议书指出，对于下游用锡企业而言，如焊料、马口铁、化工等行业，成本的急剧上 涨带来了沉重压力，部分中小企业已陷入"原料买不起、订单不敢接"的困境，长期合同履行困 难，产品质量稳定性也随之受到挑战。 冷门品种突发异动，锡价罕见飞涨 锡，是基本金属中相对"冷门"的品种。 在伦敦金属交易所（LME）上市的几个主要工业金属品种， 伦锡本月涨幅确实处于明显领先 位置，同期表现最好的伦铜涨幅亦未超过7%。 交易量、流动性与市场权重，显著低于铜、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in tin prices is driven by multiple factors, including supply disruptions in major producing countries and increased demand from emerging sectors, leading to significant pressure on downstream industries [1][4]. Group 1: Price Movements - Since December 2025, tin prices have increased significantly, with LME tin rising by 11.5% and SHFE tin by over 13%, translating to an increase of more than 40,000 yuan per ton in just half a month [2]. - LME three-month tin futures and SHFE main contracts have reached record highs, surpassing $43,900 per ton and 348,000 yuan per ton, respectively [3][4]. - The price increase has been more pronounced in tin compared to other industrial metals, with the best-performing copper only rising by less than 7% during the same period [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply from major producing countries like the Democratic Republic of Congo and Myanmar is stabilizing, with domestic tin smelting capacity fully released, resulting in a production of 189,000 tons from January to November, a 6.2% year-on-year increase [4]. - Despite growth in demand from sectors like photovoltaics and automotive electronics, traditional sectors show stable demand, with global tin consumption expected to grow by nearly 3% in 2025, lagging behind production growth [4]. - The global tin market is currently experiencing a supply surplus of approximately 10,000 tons, attributed to a slowdown in overseas demand [4]. Group 3: Industry Challenges - The rapid price increase has created significant pressure on downstream industries, particularly for small and medium-sized enterprises in sectors like solder, tinplate, and chemicals, leading to difficulties in fulfilling long-term contracts and maintaining product quality [2][8]. - The electronic manufacturing sector, a major consumer of tin-based solder, faces acute cost pressures due to soaring tin prices, impacting profit margins in PCB manufacturing and semiconductor packaging [8]. - The Tin Industry Association has called for a rational and cautious approach from all market participants to avoid speculative behavior and to guide prices back to a reasonable range [8].

价格走势：强势突破，站稳新高 当前价格：据长江有色金属网 获悉，今日长江现货 1# 锡价报价 332,500-334,500 元 / 吨，均价 333,500 元 / 吨，较昨日上涨 8,000 元 / 吨 (+2.46%)，延续近期强势。 短期趋势：震荡上行通道确立，价格重心持续上移 技术特征：期货市场同步走强，沪锡主力合约 2601 今日高开高走，截至 10:15 报 334,220 元 / 吨，涨幅 2.63%，成交量放大，持仓量稳定，市场看涨情绪浓厚。宏观经济：美国11月非农数据虽显示就业增 长，但失业率上升，市场对美联储降息预期增强，美元指数弱势震荡，为锡价提供了一定支撑。全球经 济增长不确定性仍存，但国内扩大内需政策对金属需求形成潜在利好。与此同时，中国"双碳"战略及相 关稳增长政策持续发力，为新能源汽车等绿色产业的需求提供了坚实的长期支撑。然而，宏观利好仅 是"背景音乐"，真正的核心剧情由产业基本面书写。在供应端，一场"紧箍咒"正在全球主要产区同步收 紧：非洲刚果（金）的地缘冲突直接威胁物流命脉，东南亚印尼的政策收紧与缅甸复产的严重滞后，使 得全球超过五分之一的供应处于高度不确定状态。这恰逢全球 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas markets are concerned about the US non - farm payrolls, with weak risk appetite, while the domestic economic data continues to be weak, and the A - share market is expected to be weak in the short term, and the bond market remains on the sidelines [2][3] - Precious metals may have a technical correction, but platinum and palladium are expected to rise; copper prices will fluctuate in the short term; aluminum prices will fluctuate at a high level; alumina's upward space is limited; casting aluminum will fluctuate at a high level; zinc prices are adjusting and waiting for macro - guidance; lead prices will fluctuate weakly; tin prices will continue to adjust at a high level; industrial silicon prices are expected to rebound; steel prices will fluctuate weakly; iron ore prices will be under pressure; coking coal and coke prices will fluctuate weakly; soybean and rapeseed meal prices will fluctuate; palm oil prices will fluctuate in a range [4][6][8][10][11][12][14][15][16][18][19][20][22][24] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macroeconomics - Overseas: Fed officials' remarks affect market expectations, Japan's manufacturing confidence supports central bank rate hikes, and before important data releases, overseas market risk appetite is weak [2] - Domestic: November economic data is cold, with production showing resilience and demand cooling further. The A - share market is expected to be weak in the short - term, and the bond market remains on the sidelines [3] 3.2 Precious Metals - International precious metals futures generally rose on Monday, with platinum hitting the daily limit in the domestic market. There is a risk of a technical correction in gold and silver, while platinum and palladium are expected to rise. Pay attention to the US non - farm payrolls and retail data [4][5] 3.3 Copper - On Monday, Shanghai copper's main contract fluctuated at a high level. With a weak US dollar and various macro and industrial factors, copper prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [6][7] 3.4 Aluminum - On Monday, Shanghai aluminum's main contract fell, and LME aluminum was flat. The market is waiting for the US non - farm payrolls data, and with inventory accumulation and seasonal demand slowdown, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level [8][9] 3.5 Alumina - On Monday, the alumina futures main contract rose. Although the price has rebounded, there is a lack of continuous upward momentum, and the upward space is limited [10] 3.6 Casting Aluminum - On Monday, the casting aluminum alloy futures main contract fell. Affected by raw materials and environmental protection, both supply and demand are weakening, but with cost support, it will fluctuate at a high level [11] 3.7 Zinc - On Monday, Shanghai zinc's main contract fluctuated weakly. With the approach of the US non - farm payrolls data, the market is cautious. In the long - term, overseas supply will improve, and currently, the supply pressure is decreasing, so zinc prices will adjust in the short term [12] 3.8 Lead - On Monday, Shanghai lead's main contract fluctuated weakly. With the improvement of overseas supply in the medium - long term and the increase in inventory, the support of low inventory is weakening, but the downward space is limited [13][14] 3.9 Tin - On Monday, Shanghai tin's main contract adjusted downward. With the release of multiple economic data and the increase in Indonesian tin exports, the macro and micro support for tin prices is weakening, and it will continue to adjust at a high level [15] 3.10 Industrial Silicon - On Monday, industrial silicon rebounded at a low level. Supported by cost and market sentiment, it is expected to continue to rebound in the short term [16][17] 3.11 Steel (Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil) - On Monday, steel futures fluctuated. With weak terminal demand data, steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [18] 3.12 Iron Ore - On Monday, iron ore futures fluctuated weakly. With the increase in supply and weak demand, iron ore prices are expected to be under pressure [19] 3.13 Coking Coal and Coke (Double - Coking) - On Monday, double - coking futures fluctuated weakly. With weak supply - demand fundamentals, prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [20][21] 3.14 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - On Monday, soybean and rapeseed meal contracts fluctuated. With positive South American crop prospects and concerns about US soybean exports, the domestic market will maintain a short - term pattern of near - strong and far - weak, and the main contracts will fluctuate [22][23] 3.15 Palm Oil - On Monday, palm oil contracts fell. With weak export demand and expected inventory increase, palm oil prices are expected to fluctuate in a range. Pay attention to the support at the lower limit of the previous low range [24][26] 3.16 Metal Trading Data - Provides the closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, and open interest of various metal futures contracts in the main domestic and international markets on December 15, 2025 [27] 3.17 Industry Data Perspective - Compares the prices, inventories, and other data of various metals on December 15, 2025, with those on December 12, 2025, including copper, nickel, zinc, lead, aluminum, alumina, tin, precious metals, steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and soybean meal [28][31][33]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the tin price showed an overall upward - trending oscillation. In 2026, the tight supply situation at the mine end is expected to ease, with a likely front - tight and back - loose pattern. The smelting end's operating rate is expected to gradually recover, and processing fees may slightly rebound. The tin solder sector, which performed well in 2025, is expected to continue to grow in 2026, benefiting from the semiconductor industry. The tin price in 2026 is expected to remain strong, showing a trend of rising first and then falling with an overall upward - shifted center. The main operating range of Shanghai Tin is expected to be between 250,000 - 350,000 yuan/ton, and that of LME Tin is expected to be between 30,000 - 48,000 US dollars/ton [2][90][92]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 2025 Tin Market Review 3.1.1 Long - term Tin Price Trend Review - Since 2011, the tin price has gone through eight stages: a continuous decline from the second half of 2011 to the end of 2015 due to global economic concerns; a sharp rise from the end of 2015 to the end of 2016 due to supply - side structural reforms; an oscillatory trend from early 2017 to April 2019 as supply exceeded demand; a continuous decline from April 2019 to March 2020 due to trade disputes and the COVID - 19 pandemic; a new high from April 2021 to March 2022 due to loose policies and supply - demand imbalance; a sharp fall from March to October 2022 due to Fed rate hikes; an oscillatory trend from November 2022 to March 2024 under the influence of supply - side disturbances and a falling US dollar index; and a strong rise and subsequent high - level oscillation from March 2024 to the present [10][11][13]. 3.1.2 2025 Tin Market Review - **Tin Futures Price Review**: The tin price in 2025 showed a pattern of rising first, then falling, and then rising again. In the first quarter, it rose due to tight mine - end supply. In mid - March, the civil unrest in the Democratic Republic of the Congo pushed up bullish sentiment. After the Tomb - sweeping Festival, there was a systemic risk, followed by a narrow - range oscillation. In September, the price rose again due to supply issues and the Indonesian government's crackdown on illegal tin smuggling [15]. - **Tin Spot and Premium/Discount**: In 2025, the domestic tin spot was at a discount, while the LME tin premium/discount hovered around 0 [19]. 3.2 Macro - analysis - In 2025, the eurozone economy was relatively sluggish, with controllable inflation and a loose European Central Bank. The US economy had some resilience, but its growth momentum weakened, and the risk of recession increased. The Chinese economy showed resilience, but faced deflationary pressure. In 2026, the inflation in Europe and the US is expected to gradually decline, and major central banks are likely to continue the rate - cut cycle. The US economy may see moderate growth, while the eurozone's growth may remain low. China's macro - economic policies are expected to be more proactive, and the inflation environment may gradually improve [20]. 3.3 Tin Market Supply Analysis 3.3.1 Tin Ore Supply May Be Front - tight and Back - loose - In 2025, there were many disruptions in tin ore supply, such as the suspension of mines in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and the slow resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State. From 2025 - 2026, new projects are few, and the ore increment is limited. In 2026, the global tin ore production is expected to increase slightly by about 4,500 metal tons, reaching about 360,000 tons. China's tin ore production has been gradually decreasing in recent years, but showed a small increase in 2025. China's tin ore imports are expected to gradually increase in 2026. The tin ore price showed an upward - trending oscillation in 2025, and the processing fee was at a low level [24][25][26]. 3.3.2 Refined Tin Production Will Maintain Growth - In 2025, the domestic refined tin production of sample enterprises increased year - on - year. Overseas, there was a supply shortage in the first 9 months of 2025. In general, the tight mine - end supply in the past two years affected the smelting capacity. The smelting operating rate is expected to gradually rebound in 2026, with a slightly higher growth rate than in 2025. In 2025, the refined tin import window was mostly closed, and China became a net exporter of refined tin. The short - term import window is difficult to open [38][42][43]. 3.4 Tin Market Demand Analysis 3.4.1 Tin - plated Sheet Production Declined While Exports Increased - In 2024, China's tin - plated sheet production increased steadily. In 2025, it declined significantly due to the substitution of chrome - plated sheets and weak domestic demand. However, exports increased, mainly due to strong external demand and China's cost - advantage. But the future export situation may be affected by the substitution of new materials and trade - relief investigations [47][48]. 3.4.2 Lead - acid Battery Production Increased Significantly - In recent years, the rapid development of the e - bike, express delivery, and takeout industries supported the consumption of lead - acid batteries. In 2025, the production growth rate accelerated, but exports declined year - on - year [56]. 3.4.3 The Growth Cycle of Electronic Products May Be Near the End - In 2023, the downward cycle of electronic products turned around. In 2024, they showed positive growth. In 2025, the growth rate of computer and smartphone production slowed down. In 2026, the growth rate of production and sales of computers and mobile phones is expected to slow down but remain positive [60]. 3.4.4 Integrated Circuit Production Will Maintain Rapid Growth - Since 2024, China's integrated circuit production has increased significantly. The growth rate accelerated in the second half of the second quarter and then declined in the third - quarter off - season. With the recovery of the global semiconductor industry, the production and sales of integrated circuits are expected to maintain high - speed growth in the medium and long term [63]. 3.4.5 The Photovoltaic Industry Is in a Transition from the High - speed Development Stage - In 2024 and 2025, China's photovoltaic installed capacity increased significantly. However, the industry faces over - capacity. In 2026, the industry will face resource integration, and capacity growth will be more orderly. The global new - installed photovoltaic capacity is expected to reach 665GW, and the new tin demand is expected to reach about 43,000 tons [66]. 3.4.6 The New - energy Vehicle Industry Maintains Growth - In 2025, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles increased significantly. Due to the cost - advantage and policy support, the sales will continue to grow. In the long - term, the growth rate will slow down, but the marginal increment is still significant. In 2026, the production and sales growth rate is expected to be between 15 - 20% [71]. 3.5 Tin Inventory First Rose and Then Fell - In 2024, the inventories of the two major exchanges showed different trends. In 2025, the SHFE inventory first increased, then decreased, and then increased again. The LME inventory decreased first and then increased. As of December 1, the total inventory of the two exchanges was at a medium level. The LME tin premium/discount narrowed in 2025, and the import window was intermittently open [74][77]. 3.6 Global Refined Tin Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Forecast - Since 2018, the global tin market has been in a supply - shortage situation for most months. In 2025, the supply was tight in the first half and loose in the second half, while demand continued to grow. In 2026, the supply is expected to increase slightly, and demand will also grow moderately, maintaining a tight - balance situation [80]. 3.7 Seasonal and Technical Analysis 3.7.1 Seasonal Analysis - Historically, the tin price is weakest in March, and the probability of decline is high in March, August, September, and October. It often performs strongly in January, July, and December. In 2025, the tin price showed a wide - range oscillation, with most months showing a decline except April [83]. 3.7.2 Technical Analysis - From the daily K - line of the Shanghai Tin main contract, in March 2025, the price broke through the 270,000 - yuan mark and then fell back. In August, it accelerated its rise, filled the gap after the Tomb - sweeping Festival, and broke through the previous high of the year. In the short - term, the upward momentum is not exhausted, and it may approach the historical high in 2022 [87]. 3.8 LME Position Analysis - In the past three years, the tin price has maintained a wide - range oscillation. Investment funds generally held a net - long position, which increased significantly in the second half of 2025. Investment companies, credit institutions, and commercial enterprises held different positions. As of November 28, 2025, investment companies and credit institutions had a net - long position of 2,309 lots, investment funds had a net - long position of 5,002 lots, and commercial enterprises had a net - long position of - 6,339 lots [89]. 3.9 Conclusion and Operational Suggestions - In 2025, the tin price showed an upward - trending oscillation. In 2026, the supply at the mine end is expected to ease, the smelting operating rate may recover, and the processing fee may slightly rebound. The tin solder sector is expected to continue to grow. The tin price in 2026 is expected to be strong, showing a trend of rising first and then falling with an overall upward - shifted center. The main operating range of Shanghai Tin is expected to be between 250,000 - 350,000 yuan/ton, and that of LME Tin is expected to be between 30,000 - 48,000 US dollars/ton [90][92]. 3.10 Related Stocks - Stocks such as Yunnan Tin Industry Co., Ltd. (000960.SZ), Xingye Co., Ltd. (603928.SH), Yintai Gold Co., Ltd. (000975.SZ), and others are related to the tin industry. Their stock prices showed different monthly and annual growth rates [93].