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沪锡市场周报:供需两弱交投平淡,预计锡价震荡调整-20250822
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 09:31
瑞达期货研究院 「2025.08.22」 沪锡市场周报 供需两弱交投平淡 预计锡价震荡调整 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 研究员: 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 来源:瑞达期货研究院 3 行情回顾:本周沪锡主力震荡下跌,周线涨跌幅为-0.33%,振幅1.72%。截止本周主力合约收盘报 价265930元/吨。 行情展望:宏观面,美国8月制造业PMI初值53.3,意外创三年多新高,通胀压力加剧。工信部等部 门:进一步规范光伏产业竞争秩序,遏制低价无序竞争。基本面,缅甸佤邦虽重启采矿证审批,但 实际出矿需至四季度;刚果Bisie矿山计划分阶段恢复生产,目前锡矿加工费维持历史低位。冶炼 端,7月产量回升主要受部分企业复产、清理中间品等多重因素影响;不过云南产区原料短缺依旧 严峻;江西产区废料回收体系承压,开工率保持在较低水平。需求端,下游加工企业由于传统淡季, 大部分企业生产接货仅维持刚需,订单差强人意。近期锡价震荡,下游多数企业逢低刚需采买,部 分后点价订单。现货 ...
瑞达期货沪锡产业日报-20250807
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-07 09:20
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating [1][2][3] 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests a temporary wait - and - see approach for tin investment, with an expected price range of 260,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton for shock adjustment [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for Shanghai tin is 267,940 yuan/ton, up 1,000 yuan; the LME 3 - month tin price is 33,230 US dollars/ton, down 70 US dollars [3] - The closing price of the August - September contract for Shanghai tin is - 440 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the main contract's open interest is 24,776 lots, up 57 lots [3] - The net position of the top 20 futures is 128 lots, down 65 lots; the LME tin total inventory is 1,755 tons, down 120 tons [3] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's tin inventory is 7,671 tons, up 254 tons; the LME tin cancelled warrants are 365 tons, down 120 tons [3] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's tin warrants are 7,332 tons, down 26 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 267,200 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 267,190 yuan/ton, down 630 yuan [3] - The basis of the Shanghai tin main contract is - 740 yuan/ton, down 1,400 yuan; the LME tin cash - to - 3 - month spread is - 73 US dollars/ton, down 31 US dollars [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 1.21 million tons, down 0.29 million tons [3] - The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 252,600 yuan/ton, down 6,500 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate is 256,600 yuan/ton, down 6,500 yuan [3] - The processing fee for 40% tin concentrate is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee for 60% tin concentrate is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 1.4 million tons, down 0.16 million tons; the import volume of refined tin is 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu is 173,790 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 160.14 million tons, up 14.45 million tons; the export volume of tin - plated sheets is 14.07 million tons, down 3.39 million tons [3] 3.6 Industry News - Modi plans to visit China from August 31 to September 1 to attend the SCO Tianjin Summit [3] - Trump plans to impose a 100% tariff on chip products, exempting companies like Apple and TSMC that build or promise to build factories in the US [3] - The US - Japan trade agreement has ongoing differences, and the US plans to impose an additional 15% tariff on existing tariffs [3] - Fed Governor Cook said the July employment report was "worrying" and might signal a turning point in the US economy [3] 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - The tin ore processing fee remains at a historical low. In July, the increase in production was due to factors like enterprise复产 and intermediate product clearance, but raw material shortages are still severe in Yunnan, and the waste recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure with low operating rates [3] - After the PV industry's rush to install ended, some producers' operating rates declined; the electronics industry is in a slow season, and the US plan to impose tariffs on semiconductors adds to the pressure. Downstream enterprises are in a traditional consumption slow season with few orders [3] - The current high prices suppress downstream enterprises' inventory replenishment sentiment. The spot premium has slightly dropped to 400 yuan/ton, and domestic inventory has slightly increased [3] - Technically, with low open interest, both bulls and bears are cautious, and the price is in a range - bound adjustment [3]
上期所发布公告同意若干产品注册
Qi Huo Ri Bao Wang· 2025-07-31 19:28
Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has approved the registration of three products, allowing them to be used for futures contract delivery starting from the date of the announcement [1] Group 1: Product Registrations - Jiangsu Binxin Steel Group Co., Ltd. has received approval for the registration of its "Xinyong Special Steel" brand wire rod products [1] - Henan Jinli Jinxin Co., Ltd. has been granted registration for its "Jijin" brand zinc ingots, with a registered production capacity of 100,000 tons, adhering to standard pricing [1] - Yunnan Xinyu Nonferrous Electrolytic Co., Ltd. has had its "Yunxiang" brand tin ingots registered, with a registered production capacity of 6,000 tons, also following standard pricing [1]
国泰君安期货所长早读-20250722
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-22 01:53
Group 1: Investment Ratings - No report industry investment ratings are provided in the content [1][2] Group 2: Core Views - The US-EU trade negotiation has reached a deadlock, with the US setting an August 1st deadline for a new trade agreement, and the EU considering "nuclear option" countermeasures [5][20][21] - For specific commodities, the report provides trend predictions such as gold's upward oscillation, silver's upward breakthrough, and copper's price supported by inventory reduction [12][18][21] Group 3: Summaries by Commodity Propylene - On July 22, 2025, the listing benchmark price of the first batch of propylene futures contracts was 6350 yuan/ton. Considering the spread and delivery costs, the recommended strategy is to buy the 02 contract of propylene and short the 01 contract of PP [6] Glass - In the short term, the glass market is slightly bullish but overvalued. The market has rebounded due to policy expectations and reduced short positions. However, the high premium of futures contracts over spot prices may lead to market fluctuations. As the market approaches August, the delivery logic may favor short positions [9] Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Gold is expected to oscillate upward, and silver to break through upward [12][18] - **Copper**: Copper price is supported by inventory reduction, with both domestic and international copper inventories decreasing [21] - **Zinc**: Zinc is in a range - bound oscillation [12][24] - **Lead**: The price of lead is supported by supply - demand contradictions [12][27] - **Tin**: The price of tin is weakening [12][29] - **Aluminum and Related Products**: Aluminum is expected to oscillate upward, alumina has a short - term strong sentiment, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [12][33] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel's upward potential is limited by reality despite positive macro - sentiment, and stainless steel's trend is mainly influenced by macro - sentiment with fundamentals determining its elasticity [12][36] Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: With potential supply reduction and positive macro - sentiment, the short - term trend may remain strong [12][41] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon's position is decreasing, making the market resistant to decline; polysilicon requires attention to component sales [12][45] Building Materials - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro - expectations, it is in a bullish oscillation [12][48] - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Market sentiment remains strong, and both are in a bullish oscillation [12][50][51] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicate**: Market sentiment is strong, and both are in a bullish oscillation [12][55] Energy - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Both are expected to oscillate upward [12][59][60] - **Steam Coal**: With the recovery of daily consumption, the market is stabilizing with an oscillating trend [12][63] Others - **Log**: The log market is oscillating repeatedly [66]
下游需求偏弱 沪锡午后跳水【7月7日SHFE市场收盘评论】
Wen Hua Cai Jing· 2025-07-07 07:26
Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the tin market is experiencing a downturn due to weak supply and demand dynamics, with prices falling by 2.03% to 263,520 yuan/ton [1] - Tin ore supply remains tight, with smelter operating rates at low levels, and downstream demand entering a seasonal lull, leading to cautious procurement by enterprises and a sluggish spot market [1] - Domestic social inventory continues to rise, putting pressure on tin prices, while the operating rate of refined tin smelting enterprises in Yunnan and Jiangxi has slightly increased to 53.97% [1] Group 2 - Downstream demand is weak, particularly in the photovoltaic and electronics sectors, with a decline in orders and production rates in East China and South China [2] - The high tin prices are suppressing downstream purchasing, with companies primarily maintaining just-in-time procurement [2] - Despite the weak demand, there is no significant pressure on the supply side, as tin ore supply shortages persist and smelter production is declining, leading to a potential high-level fluctuation in tin prices [2]
中航期货锡周报报告-20250627
Zhong Hang Qi Huo· 2025-06-27 12:38
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The report anticipates that the price of tin will fluctuate with a bias towards strength. Tin ore supply remains tight, though long - term supply recovery is clear. Demand is mixed, with some sectors like photovoltaic showing weakness, while new energy vehicle consumption is strong. [5][36] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Report Summary - US initial jobless claims decreased, and continuing claims reached the highest level in years. The US Q3 GDP had a quarterly contraction greater than expected, and consumer spending also declined. The conflict between Israel and Iran eased, reducing supply concerns. Market confidence in economic growth was insufficient, and the metal index fell. Tin ore supply remained tight, and the复产 rhythm of Burmese mines might slow. Supply recovery was clear in the long - term but uncertain in the short - term. On the demand side, photovoltaic tin strip orders declined, and overall demand was lackluster. [5] 3.2 Multi - Empty Focus - **Bullish Factors**: Tin ore and scrap supply remained tight, inventory decreased, and the US dollar index dropped significantly. [7] - **Bearish Factors**: Consumption in electronics and automotive electronics was sluggish, and photovoltaic module production declined significantly. [7] 3.3 Data Analysis - **Global Supply and Demand**: In April 2025, global refined tin production was 29,800 tons, consumption was 30,400 tons, with a supply shortage of 600 tons. From January - April 2025, production was 119,400 tons, consumption was 111,700 tons, with a supply surplus of 7,700 tons. In April 2025, global tin ore production was 27,600 tons, and from January - April, it was 103,700 tons. [9] - **Price and Basis**: This week, tin futures prices strengthened. The basis of Shanghai tin was 1,340 yuan/ton, and the premium increased. The LME tin premium was 96 US dollars/ton, and the discount strengthened. [12] - **Smelter Operating Rate**: As of last Friday, the combined operating rate of refined tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi dropped to 47.05%. Yunnan had some plants for maintenance and reduction, and Jiangxi's rate declined significantly, about 35 percentage points lower than at the beginning of the year. Future operating rates might remain low or decline. [15] - **Import Data**: In May 2025, China's tin ore imports were 13,400 tons (about 6,518 metal tons), a 36.39% month - on - month and 59.84% year - on - year increase. From January - May, cumulative imports were 50,200 tons, a 36.51% year - on - year decrease. The increase in May was mainly due to Africa. [18] - **Production Data**: In May 2025, domestic refined tin production was 14,670 tons, a 0.3% month - on - month and 8.34% year - on - year decrease. From January - May, cumulative production was 72,900 tons, a 0.75% year - on - year decrease. In June, production is expected to be around 13,800 tons. [21] - **Import and Export Data**: In May, China's tin ingot imports were 2,076 tons, an 84.04% month - on - month and 225.9% year - on - year increase. Exports were 1,770 tons, an 8.19% month - on - month increase. Cumulative imports and exports from January - May were 9,584 tons, with a 38.48% year - on - year increase. [24] - **New Energy Vehicle Data**: In May, new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.27 million and 1.307 million respectively, a 35% and 36.9% year - on - year increase. From January - May, production and sales were 5.699 million and 5.608 million respectively, a 45.2% and 44% year - on - year increase. [28] - **Solder Operating Rate**: In April, the solder operating rate was 76.7%, a 0.89% month - on - month increase and 2.7% year - on - year decrease. Large and medium - sized solder plants had an upward trend, while small ones were weak. [30] - **Inventory Data**: The latest LME tin inventory was 2,115 tons, the lowest in two years. As of the week of June 20, Shanghai tin inventory decreased by 1.99% to 6,965 tons, the lowest in three months. [34] 3.4后市研判 - The price of tin is expected to fluctuate with a bias towards strength. [36]
淡旺切换,底线探讨 - 锡
2025-05-21 15:14
Summary of Conference Call on Tin Market Dynamics Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the tin industry, focusing on supply and demand dynamics, price forecasts, and the impact of tariffs on the market [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments Tin Price Performance - In Q1, tin prices were strong due to supply contraction expectations from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Wa State, but supply pressures eased as production resumed [1][2]. - Domestic tin inventory continues to decrease, and LME (London Metal Exchange) inventories are also declining, indicating a strong near-term market outlook [1][3]. - The current backwardation structure in the market suggests a strong fundamental outlook for near-term contracts, while long-term price expectations remain pessimistic [1][3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The anticipated recovery of production in DRC and Wa State could lead to an increase in supply by approximately 6,000 to 7,000 metric tons for the year [2][15]. - If the U.S. reinstates a 24% tariff, it could negatively impact demand by about 20% [5]. - The photovoltaic (PV) sector's demand for tin is expected to be around 26,000 to 27,000 tons in 2025, but the demand from the electronics sector, particularly for solder, remains robust [6][9]. Tariff Impact - The current tariff situation is complex, with a temporary exemption in place. If tariffs are reinstated, the demand for tin could face significant pressure [5][7]. - Downstream companies are adapting by rerouting trade through Southeast Asia to mitigate tariff impacts, maintaining smooth logistics for electronic exports [7][8]. Sector-Specific Insights - The automotive sector is projected to grow by 20%, while the home appliance sector is expected to grow by 5-6% [9]. - Despite a decline in semiconductor and consumer electronics growth rates, overall solder demand remains positive, with a projected increase of 3,000 to 4,000 tons for the year [9][10]. Price Forecasts - Tin prices are expected to stabilize around 230,000 CNY per ton in the short term, with potential declines to 200,000 CNY if supply increases significantly and demand does not keep pace [4][20]. - The long-term outlook suggests a gradual increase in the price center due to growth in AI and semiconductor applications, with supply growth expected from new projects in the coming years [21][22]. Inventory and Market Sentiment - Downstream producers currently have sufficient inventory levels, having replenished stock after price drops in April [18][19]. - The market sentiment indicates a preference for stable prices, with a psychological support level at 230,000 CNY [18][20]. Future Demand Drivers - The AI industry is expected to drive future demand growth, although quantifying this impact remains challenging [22]. - The overall demand for tin is projected to grow slightly year-on-year, despite fluctuations in specific sectors [13]. Additional Important Insights - The recovery of production in DRC and Wa State is crucial for balancing supply and demand, with potential impacts on global tin prices [14][15]. - The overall supply-demand balance for 2025 is expected to shift towards a tight balance in the first half, with potential oversupply in the second half of the year [31]. This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call regarding the tin market, highlighting the interplay between supply, demand, pricing, and external factors such as tariffs.
沪铜早间小幅高开,日内持续偏强震荡,收盘上涨0【5月21日SHFE市场收盘评论】
Wen Hua Cai Jing· 2025-05-21 08:03
Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the tin market is experiencing a tug-of-war between current supply tightness and future supply expectations, limiting upward price movement [1] - The main supply issue is characterized by a tight domestic tin mining situation, with smelting plant operating rates remaining low at 56.85% in key provinces [1] - Demand is showing signs of weakness, particularly among small and medium enterprises, with pessimistic expectations for future demand due to tariffs and semiconductor cycles [1] Group 2 - Overall consumption lacks momentum, but basic consumption remains stable, with some recovery in exports of terminal goods [2] - The domestic tin supply remains tight, with expectations for increased imports due to overseas restarts [2] - The macroeconomic impact is diminishing, and the fundamental market lacks strong drivers, suggesting that short-term tin prices may experience fluctuations and adjustments [2]
关注中美贸易谈判,短期震荡
Dong Hai Qi Huo· 2025-05-12 08:26
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term tin prices will fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the possible short - term sentiment boost from Sino - US negotiations, while the news of Wa State's resumption of production and the risk of weakening demand on the margin will exert pressure [2][56]. Summary by Directory 1. When - week Macro Data/Events - From May 12th to May 16th, there are multiple important economic data releases and speeches from central bank officials, including Japan's April economic observer outlook index, the eurozone's May ZEW economic sentiment index, and US inflation data for April [4]. 2. Tin Concentrate: Pay Attention to the News of Wa State's Resumption of Production - From May 6th to May 9th, the processing fees of tin concentrate remained unchanged compared with last week. The processing fee for 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan was 12,700 yuan/ton, and that for 60% tin concentrate in Jiangxi and Hunan was 8,700 yuan/ton [6]. - In March, the total import volume of tin concentrate was 8,323 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 64%. The import volume from Myanmar dropped significantly by 87% to 2,252 tons, while that from Congo (Kinshasa) was 2,439 tons (2,551 tons in the same period last year), and the import from Australia decreased slightly to 1,084 tons (1,188 tons last year) [6]. 3. Refined Tin: Low Smelter Operating Rate, Import Window Opened and then Closed - From May 6th to May 9th, the combined operating rate of refined tin smelting enterprises in Yunnan and Jiangxi was 57.16%, remaining at a low level due to raw material shortages, far lower than that in the fourth quarter of 2024 [9]. - In March, the import volume of tin ingots was 2,101 tons, a year - on - year increase of 147%, reaching a historical high for the same period. From May 6th to May 9th, the import profit and loss fluctuated between - 4,545 and 1,134 yuan, and the import window opened. In March, Indonesia exported 8,780 tons of refined tin, a 50% increase compared with the same period last year [10]. 4. Tin Solder - In March 2025, the overall sample operating rate of domestic tin solder enterprises rebounded to 75.81%, showing significant improvement compared with February [17]. - As of February 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of global semiconductor sales was 17.1%, remaining at a high level. On May 2nd, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index reached 4,397 points, showing a recent rebound. In March, China's semiconductor production was 41.97 billion pieces, a year - on - year increase of 9.2%, and the export of integrated circuits was 28.797 billion, a year - on - year increase of 25.12% [25]. - In March, the production of mobile phones was 137 million units, a year - on - year increase of 0.4%; the production of computers was 3.212 million units, a year - on - year increase of 7.8%; and the production of optoelectronic devices was 163.9 billion pieces, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%. Attention should be paid to the impact of AI concepts and policies on consumer electronics consumption [26]. - In March, the domestic production of photovoltaic cells was 78.444 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 23.6%, and the export volume of photovoltaic modules was 954 million, a year - on - year increase of 85%. As of May 9th, the operating rate of domestic photovoltaic glass was 70.34%, a slight increase of 0.9%, and the inventory turnover days of photovoltaic glass enterprises was 26.68 days, a month - on - month increase of 2.18% [33][34]. 5. Tin Chemicals - As of May 9th, the weekly operating rate of PVC rebounded to 80.34%, a 1.01% increase from last week. The weekly profit of the ethylene method was - 652 yuan/ton, and that of the calcium carbide method was - 705 yuan/ton, with production profits remaining in a large - scale loss [39]. - As of May 11th, the number of property transactions in 30 cities was 12,718, showing a seasonal decline and a significant year - on - year decline compared with 20,706 in the same period last year. From January to March, the cumulative value of real estate construction area was 6.13705 billion square meters, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 9.5%, and the cumulative value of real estate completion area in March was 130.6 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 14.3% [39]. 6. Inventory: Weekly Social Inventory Increased after Decreasing - From May 2nd to May 9th, the social inventory of tin ingots increased by 360 tons to 10,193 tons, the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 143 tons to 8,402 tons, and the LME inventory increased by 50 tons to 2,705 tons [47]. 7. Shanghai Tin: Pay Attention to Sino - US Trade Negotiations, Short - term Fluctuation - From May 6th to May 9th, the weighted open interest of Shanghai tin increased from 53,905 lots to 57,275 lots. Tin prices fluctuated, and the open interest increased slightly [54].
2025年4月基本面信息与走势总结
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-04-30 13:03
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In April, tin prices fluctuated extremely in the first half - month and then narrowed in the second half - month. The market focus has shifted to demand. The tin market is treated as a rebound, with strong resistance at 265,000 - 270,000 yuan. The medium - and long - term trend will be pressured by supply easing and consumption concerns, and short - selling is the main strategy. In May, tin prices will mainly complete the right - shoulder shock pattern, with obvious resistance above and a possible downward shift in the lower trading low [18]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Information 1.1 Tin Concentrate Supply - Myanmar's Wa State promotes the resumption of production at the Manxiang Mine. The new mining license fee standard has increased significantly, which may put pressure on low - altitude mines and small and medium - sized concentrators, while large enterprises have an advantage [1]. - Alphamin's Bisie mine in Congo (Kinshasa) has resumed tin production, which accounts for about 6% of the world's annual tin production [2]. - Xingye Yinxi's wholly - owned subsidiary, Yinman Mining, resumed production on April 16 after a safety accident in March [2]. - Malaysia Smelting Corporation (MSC) temporarily suspended production due to a gas pipeline explosion on April 1. In 2024, its refined tin output was 16,300 tons, and this event may cause delays in tin metal delivery [3]. - In March 2025, China's tin ore imports remained at a low level. The import volume of tin ore and concentrates was 8,322.55 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 64% and a month - on - month decrease of 4.8%. From January to March, the cumulative import volume was 26,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 55% [4]. 1.2 Refined Tin Production and Import - Export Trends - In March, Mysteel's survey of 20 domestic tin smelters showed that the refined tin output was 14,590 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.92% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.96%. From January to March, the cumulative output was 43,600 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.7%. In April, the planned output is expected to be 14,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4% [5]. - In March, Indonesia's tin ingot exports returned to the high - level range of last year, with 5,780.14 tons exported, a year - on - year increase of 49.8% [5]. - In March, China's tin ingot imports increased, exports decreased, and net imports turned positive. The import volume of unforged non - alloy tin was 2,094 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.02% and a year - on - year increase of 145.67%. The export volume was 1,673 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 29.51% and a year - on - year increase of 12.99%. In March, the net import of refined tin was 421 tons, and the cumulative net import in the first quarter was 119 tons [6]. - In the first quarter, Yunnan Tin Company's net profit was 499 million yuan, a year - on - year increase of 53.08%. It is expected to produce 90,000 tons of tin products, 125,000 tons of copper products, 131,600 tons of zinc products, and 102.3 tons of indium ingots in 2025, with a budgeted operating income of 46.5 billion yuan [6]. 1.3 Consumption and Balance - The Yunnan Provincial Grain and Material Reserves Bureau and Yunnan Tin Group signed a tin and indium metal reserve agreement to jointly promote the establishment of a "Yunnan model" for non - ferrous metal reserves [7]. - According to WBMS, in February 2025, the global refined tin supply had a surplus of 1,100 tons. From January to February, there was a supply shortage of 2,500 tons. In February, the global tin ore output was 25,600 tons, and from January to February, it was 51,200 tons [8]. 2. Weekly Report Trends 2.1 April 7 - **Price Trend**: After the earthquake in Myanmar, the Wa State postponed the early - April resumption investment conference. Driven by funds, the tin market rose, with LME tin reaching a maximum of $38,395 and SHFE tin weighted index hitting 299,700 yuan. However, affected by the US - China tariff risk, LME tin gave back all its gains and closed at $35,000 [9]. - **Upstream Supply**: Malaysia Smelting Group suspended production due to a gas pipeline accident. The processing fee of 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan was concentrated at 11,000 yuan/ton, and smelters' raw material inventories were at a low level. Attention should be paid to the production schedule of domestic smelters in April and the resumption news from the Wa State [9]. - **Downstream Consumption**: Due to the high price, point - pricing by tin - related downstream enterprises above 290,000 yuan basically stopped. Domestic SMM tin social inventory increased to 12,000 tons, while LME tin inventory dropped to 2,990 tons. The risk of a short squeeze increased, but it was difficult in the short term [9]. - **Outlook**: The global tin market has many supply - related topics, but current consumption is average. It is recommended that downstream enterprises conduct point - pricing below 270,000 yuan. Tin prices are still in a high - level volatile state, and the trend depends on supply changes [10]. 2.2 April 14 - **Price Trend**: In the past two weeks, tin prices fluctuated greatly. Affected by the US - China tariff and Alphamin's resumption of production, LME tin dropped to a minimum of $28,900, and SHFE tin weighted index fell to 236,000 yuan. Then, due to tight domestic tin resources and tariff game, prices rebounded quickly, and SHFE tin oscillated above 260,000 yuan [11]. - **Upstream Supply**: Although tin prices resisted multiple supply - side impacts, the impact of systematic risks on prices was large, indicating that the market focus has shifted to demand. Alphamin is resuming production, and attention should be paid to actual supply changes [12]. - **Downstream Consumption**: Uncertainty in demand increased due to potential US tariffs on the semiconductor industry. Domestic SMM tin social inventory decreased slightly to 11,600 tons, and LME tin inventory increased to 3,140 tons [12]. - **Outlook**: The tin market is treated as a rebound, with resistance at 265,000 - 270,000 yuan. It is recommended to short - sell and wait for supply changes [12]. 2.3 April 21 - **Price Trend**: Although SHFE tin rebounded on Monday, the overall price oscillated, with resistance at 265,000 - 270,000 yuan. LME tin was weaker than SHFE tin, and attention should be paid to its performance at $32,500 [13]. - **Upstream Supply**: The tin market is still in a tight supply situation. In March, domestic tin concentrate imports decreased year - on - year. Domestic smelters' raw material inventories were tight, and it was expected that April's refined tin output might decrease. Yinman Mining resumed production, and Alphamin gave up its 20,000 - ton annual output target [13]. - **Downstream Consumption**: Consumption in the semiconductor industry is highly uncertain. Due to the price fluctuations last week, downstream enterprises replenished their inventories, and steel - linked tin social inventory decreased to 10,600 tons. Attention should be paid to pre - holiday inventory replenishment before May Day [14]. - **Outlook**: The tin market is regarded as a rebound, with resistance at 265,000 - 270,000 yuan. It is recommended to short - sell, and the medium - and long - term trend will be pressured by supply and consumption concerns [14]. 2.4 April 28 - **Price Trend**: Last week, domestic and international tin prices oscillated, with a narrowing fluctuation range. The weekly increase was over 2%. SHFE tin was stronger than LME tin, and SHFE tin weighted index oscillated above the 250 - day moving average, but the overall position decreased significantly. LME tin failed to break through $32,000 [16]. - **Upstream Supply**: In March, domestic tin concentrate imports continued to decline year - on - year. The weekly operating rates of refined tin production in Yunnan and Jiangxi were weak, and it was expected that April's tin output would drop to 14,000 tons. The import window for refined tin opened, and net imports might continue in April. The Wa State promoted the resumption of production, and the new fee standard might promote the large - scale and intensive development of the Manxiang Mine [16]. - **Downstream Consumption**: The global semiconductor consumption index has changed. LME tin inventory slowly decreased to 2,810 tons. Domestic SMM social inventory decreased slightly to 10,413 tons. The market is not optimistic about pre - May Day tin inventory replenishment. South Korea's export data was revised down, and there is high uncertainty in domestic photovoltaic and home appliance production schedules [17]. - **Outlook**: Overseas tin prices are weaker. The tin market is a rebound, and it is recommended to short - sell with resistance at 265,000 - 270,000 yuan. The medium - and long - term trend will be pressured by supply and consumption factors [17]. 3. Conclusions and Outlook - In April, tin prices fluctuated extremely in the first half - month and then narrowed in the second half - month. The market focus has shifted to demand. The tin market is treated as a rebound, with strong resistance at 265,000 - 270,000 yuan. The medium - and long - term trend will be pressured by supply easing and consumption concerns, and short - selling is the main strategy. In May, tin prices will mainly complete the right - shoulder shock pattern, with obvious resistance above and a possible downward shift in the lower trading low [18][19].