Core Viewpoint - The tin market is experiencing a strong upward trend driven by tight supply-demand fundamentals, supportive macroeconomic conditions, and explosive demand from the industrial chain [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai tin contract 2603 surged by 13,320 yuan, with a closing price of 414,180 yuan per ton, reflecting a 3.32% increase [1]. - The average price of 1 tin in the Changjiang market rose by 11,500 yuan, reaching 415,250 yuan per ton [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The post-Spring Festival recovery in the tin industry shows a "downstream first, upstream lagging" pattern, with downstream solder and semiconductor processing enterprises gradually resuming production, while upstream smelting companies remain on holiday or under maintenance [2]. - Social inventory of tin in London increased to 7,680 tons, but upstream smelting recovery is slow, and the import volume of Myanmar tin ore has decreased, leading to tight raw material supply [3]. Group 3: Current Trading Conditions - The spot market is showing a "price increase with volume growth" trend, with traders more willing to sell as prices rise, although purchasing sentiment remains cautious due to continuous price increases [4]. Group 4: Price Forecast - Short-term tin prices are expected to maintain a high-level oscillation, supported by macroeconomic factors, supply-demand mismatch, and structural demand growth [5]. - The main contract for Shanghai tin is projected to fluctuate between 405,000 and 420,000 yuan per ton [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the tin market has experienced a significant decline, with the main contract dropping by 7.05% to 365,400 yuan/ton, primarily driven by macroeconomic sentiment rather than fundamental changes in the tin market [1] - The supply of tin ore has shown signs of easing, particularly with the resumption of tin mining in Myanmar and the normalization of tin ingot exports from Indonesia, leading to expectations of a more stable long-term supply [1] - The downstream market is entering the Chinese New Year holiday period, with most solder manufacturers halting operations and low procurement willingness due to previous stockpiling during price corrections [1] Group 2 - As the Chinese New Year approaches, most domestic tin smelting enterprises are expected to gradually enter a production halt, with demand-side replenishment nearly completed and only sporadic essential transactions occurring [2] - The core supply tightness in the mining sector remains unchanged, and short-term price fluctuations are anticipated to continue [2]

Core Viewpoint - The strong rise in tin prices is driven by a combination of overseas macroeconomic easing expectations, domestic supply-demand mismatches during the Spring Festival, and rigid industrial demand [2] Group 1: Supply Side - Supply disruptions from major overseas producing countries continue, with slow import rhythms for domestic raw materials and moderate output from smelting, leading to overall tight supply [3] - Myanmar's Wa State recovery is below expectations, Indonesia's export quotas are tightening, and geopolitical tensions in the Democratic Republic of Congo are increasing supply risks in nearly 90% of mining areas [2][3] Group 2: Demand Side - As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream sectors are gradually shutting down, leading to a cooling of proactive stocking intentions, resulting in a dual weak supply-demand situation [4] - The electronic industry, particularly in 3C, semiconductors, and automotive electronics, accounts for 85% of tin demand, with new demand from AI servers and advanced packaging significantly increasing consumption [5][6] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The current trading in the spot market is subdued, with both buyers and sellers showing strong wait-and-see sentiments, and only a small amount of rigid demand transactions occurring [8] - Tin industry leaders are experiencing a "double boost" in performance due to high tin prices, with companies like Tin Industry Co. benefiting from their full industry chain layout and capacity release [8] Group 4: Short-term Price Trends - The market is expected to maintain a high-level oscillation with a strong bias, supported by macroeconomic benefits and tight fundamentals, although the Spring Festival demand lull may limit upward potential [10] - The key to post-holiday trends will depend on the downstream resumption of work and whether overseas supply recovery can validate and continue the current tight balance logic [10]

当前下游加工企业普遍反映终端电子消费订单较为疲弱，采购态度趋于谨慎，高企的锡价对实际需求形 成明显抑制，基本以销定产和制定采购计划。随着一批在途锡锭陆续抵达交割仓库，社会库存正进入阶 段性累库通道。叠加春节假期临近，部分下游客户已开始减少甚至暂停接单，生产节奏逐步放缓。若后 续需求持续低迷，或将导致库存水平进一步攀升，对锡价构成下行压力。 对于后市，宏源期货评论表示，沃什实施降息 缩表担忧有所缓解，但是国内锡精矿加工费环升引导供 需趋松预期，海内外精炼锡库存量环比增加，叠加贝森特表示奉行强势美元政策，或使沪锡价格有所调 整。 （文华综合） 沪锡震荡下行，主力合约收跌7.01%，报365140元/吨。锡市整体维持供需双弱格局，锡矿供应仍然偏 紧，下游加工企业当期订单偏低，高价对实际消费抑制明显。锡基本面变化有限，近期主要受宏观情绪 引导，资金参与度高，导致锡价波动较大。 国内冶炼厂开工率保持平稳，云南等供应端主产地整体锡矿供应依旧存在偏紧预期，江西地区受制于废 料短缺，精锡产量提升困难。印尼当地锡锭出口已基本恢复常态化，后期出口或将稳定。缅甸地震暂无 证据显示影响矿区生产，后续关注事态进展，去年11和12月份， ...

Core Viewpoint - The significant drop in tin prices, with the main contract hitting a limit down of 11% to 392,650 yuan/ton, is primarily driven by market reactions to the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, which has shifted market expectations towards a more hawkish stance [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Tin prices have experienced a sharp decline, influenced by external macroeconomic sentiments rather than fundamental changes in supply and demand [1] - The operating rate of smelters in Yunnan remains stable, while Jiangxi's refined tin output is still low due to a shortage of scrap tin materials [1] - The overall demand in January showed slight improvement compared to December, particularly in the photovoltaic welding strip sector, but the home appliance industry saw a year-on-year production decline of approximately 5% [1] Group 2: Supply and Inventory - Despite a rise in inventory levels due to increased imports of tin ingots, the overall inventory remains low and is not expected to exert significant pressure on prices [2] - The supply side has not shown significant changes, with smelter production remaining stable [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - Newhu Futures commented that the price drop has triggered some replenishment behavior, indicating resilience in overall consumption, although a weakening trend is evident as the Spring Festival approaches [2] - Short-term fluctuations in tin prices are anticipated due to macroeconomic disturbances, but the medium to long-term outlook remains optimistic [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint of the Report - The supply side constraints remain, the demand in emerging fields is optimistic in the long - term, but the demand side is restricted by high prices in the short - term, and the inventory has increased significantly. The tin price may show a high - level wide - range oscillating trend. Later, attention should be paid to the recovery of Burmese mines and the domestic supply - demand situation [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Situation - In December, the domestic tin ore import volume was 17,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.3% and a year - on - year increase of 40.2%. The tin ore imported from Myanmar was 6,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.7% and a year - on - year increase of 438.68%. The recovery of the Burmese mines is slow, and it is expected that the import volume in January will remain stable. The short - term domestic tin ore supply shortage continues, and the domestic tin ore processing fees remain low. The processing fee for 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan is 14,000 yuan/ton, and the processing fee for 60% tin concentrate in Guangxi is 10,000 yuan/ton, both remaining unchanged week - on - week [2] Supply - In December 2025, the domestic refined tin production was 15,950 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.06% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.79%. The raw material shortage pattern remains unsolved, and the release space of refined tin supply is limited. In Yunnan, the smelter operating rate remains at a high level of about 87%, and production is basically normal. In Jiangxi, affected by the shortage of scrap tin raw materials, the refined tin production is still low, and the operating rate of some enterprises is insufficient. It is expected that the production in January will remain unchanged month - on - month. In December, China's refined tin imports were 1,548 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 48.24% and a month - on - month increase of 29.54%. The import window was basically closed in December. China exported 2,763 tons of refined tin in December, a year - on - year increase of 32.58% and a month - on - month increase of 41.84%. Currently, the Shanghai - London price ratio is oscillating downward, and tin imports continue to incur increasing losses. In December, Indonesia's tin ingot exports were 5,002.83 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 32.93%, 1.87% higher than the average level in the past four years. The 2026 quota is about 60,000 tons, slightly higher than that in 2025, but policy control is strict, and the actual export rhythm is affected by the approval process [3] Consumption - High prices suppress downstream demand. Except for rigid demand, the willingness for active inventory replenishment has dropped to zero. Since late January, some solder and electronic manufacturing enterprises have entered the holiday mode, and the downstream's ability to accept orders has declined significantly. Usually, there is inventory replenishment demand before the Spring Festival, but this year, affected by high prices, the inventory replenishment volume is significantly lower than in previous years [3][5] Domestic Spot and Inventory - As of January 26, the tin inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 171 tons to 9,720 tons. As of January 23, the total social inventory of SMM ingots in three places was 10,678 tons, an increase of 542 tons from last week's inventory data. The average spot price of tin in the Yangtze River was 423,700 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 9,100 yuan, a rise of 2.19%. The basis of the Yangtze River spot for the tin main contract fluctuated between premium and discount. Last Friday, the basis was a premium of 4,130 yuan, with large basis fluctuations [4] LME Spot and Inventory - As of January 26, the LME tin weekly inventory continued to increase by 1,260 tons to 7,195 tons, at a relatively high level in the past five years. The LME tin spot discount widened, and the discount was $245 last weekend [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in tin prices is attributed to limited changes in the fundamentals, a recovery in supply, and a significant drop in downstream demand, leading to a correction of previously rapid price increases [1][2]. Group 1: Price Movement - Tin prices fell by 5.98%, closing at 389,500 yuan/ton, following a period of price increases driven by speculative trading and surrounding commodity influences [1]. - The recent price drop is a correction after a rapid increase, with the market responding to high prices that have suppressed downstream demand [1]. Group 2: Demand Analysis - Downstream consumption remains weak, with overall consumption this year slightly lower than in previous years; short-term recovery in photovoltaic demand is expected, but production in January is anticipated to continue declining [1]. - Feedback from downstream users indicates a lack of new orders and a decrease in inventory turnover efficiency, as many end-users are hesitant to purchase due to high prices and are controlling inventory levels [1]. Group 3: Supply Dynamics - The supply side remains stable, with no significant adjustments in the production pace of smelters; the operating rate of smelters in Yunnan was reported at 87.09%, consistent with the previous week [1]. - Tin ore supply from Myanmar is gradually recovering, supporting high operating rates in Yunnan, but low processing fees are pressuring profits and limiting production increases [1]. - Some smelters in Jiangxi are facing production constraints due to a shortage of recycled materials, leading to continued low output of refined tin, with some manufacturers even reducing production slightly last week [1]. Group 4: Market Outlook - Short-term price declines are influenced by tightened risk controls by exchanges, which have suppressed speculative trading, and a significant increase in warehouse receipts ahead of contract delivery [2]. - The supply-demand balance remains tight, with expectations of a supply squeeze in the future, particularly with Indonesia's tin export quota projected at 60,000 tons for 2026 [2]. - There is a potential for improved inventory replenishment by downstream enterprises following the recent price correction, although the focus remains on essential stockpiling [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, Shanghai Tin prices broke through significantly at high levels and then fell sharply. On January 16, 2026, the spot price of Mysteel's comprehensive 1 tin was 413,500 yuan/ton, with large price fluctuations and significant changes in the basis. - In November, refined tin production was 15,490 tons, returning to normal both month - on - month and year - on - year. From January to October, the domestic tin ore production was 61,800 tons, with a slight year - on - year increase, and domestic tin ore supply remained stable. Myanmar's repeated progress in mine resumption affected the price range, and Indonesia's exports decreased in December. - In November, the demand growth of integrated circuits, automobiles, and PVC remained strong, while the demand in traditional sectors such as computers and some white goods slowed down. It is expected that in December, the demand in emerging sectors will maintain resilience, and the demand in some traditional sectors will be adjusted. In 2025, China's foreign trade imports and exports reached 45.47 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%, maintaining growth for 9 consecutive years. China's automobile production and sales both exceeded 34 million units in 2025, reaching a new high and ranking first globally for 17 consecutive years. The domestic economy is resilient, and the prosperity of the new energy and semiconductor industries is rising. Overseas uncertainties remain high, and there is still a high probability of interest rate cuts in the later period. - The mining end remains tight, and processing fees continue to decline weakly. Overall, profits will remain low under the influence of mining end disturbances. - LME inventories increased slightly week - on - week, SHFE inventories increased significantly week - on - week, and social inventories decreased slightly week - on - week. - Due to insufficient supply, the domestic economy still has resilience, and the overall prosperity of semiconductors, automobiles, etc. remains upward. Overseas uncertainties remain high, and there is still an expectation of interest rate cuts in the later period. The mining end situation is volatile. High - price expectations suppress demand and stimulate supply. After the futures price was significantly pulled up by funds and then fell sharply, the industry association called on all parties in the market to maintain a rational and cautious attitude, and the exchange introduced cooling measures. In terms of operation, reduce the holdings of long positions. The weekly reference support level has been raised to around 360,000 - 363,000 yuan/ton. For those who bought put options, they can reduce their positions after the market stabilizes. Later, focus should be on the implementation of macro - measures, the disturbances of Myanmar and Congo mines, the speed of Indonesia's exports, and the verification of consumption data. [14] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - on - Week View and Strategy - **View**: The impact factors such as output, downstream demand, inventory, imports and exports, market sentiment, cost - profit, and macro environment are all rated as neutral [15]. - **Strategy**: Reduce the holdings of long positions, with the weekly reference support level raised to around 360,000 - 363,000 yuan/ton. For put option buyers, reduce positions after the market stabilizes. Focus on macro - measures, mine disturbances, Indonesia's exports, and consumption data [14]. 3.2. Industrial Chain Structure No specific content provided for in - depth summary. 3.3. Futures and Spot Market No specific content provided for in - depth summary other than the mention of SHFE and LME tin futures - spot prices and basis charts [21]. 3.4. Inventory - As of January 15, 2026, SHFE tin inventory was 9,526 tons, with a significant week - on - week increase. - As of January 14, 2026, LME total tin inventory was 5,925 tons, with a slight week - on - week increase. - As of January 9, 2026, refined tin social inventory was 8,076 tons, with a slight week - on - week decrease [33][37]. 3.5. Cost - Profit As of January 15, 2026, the processing fee of Yunnan concentrate was 11,000 yuan/ton, and that of Guangxi concentrate was 7,000 yuan/ton. Processing fees continued to be weak [42]. 3.6. Supply - In November 2025, refined tin production was 15,490 tons, returning to normal supply. In October 2025, domestic tin ore production was 5,236.8 tons, with a slight month - on - month decrease. - In November 2025, the capacity utilization rate of tin enterprises was about 66.5%, returning to normal [48][52]. 3.7. Demand - In November 2025, China's automobile production was 3.519 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 2.4%; China's electronic computer production was 29.028 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%. - In December 2025, China's PVC production was 2.137 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.5%; in November 2025, China's mobile electronic communication production was 142.35 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 11.6%. - In November 2025, China's air - conditioner production was 15.026 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 23.4%; China's refrigerator production was 9.442 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%. - In November 2025, China's washing - machine production was 12.013 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.5%; China's color television production was 17.449 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 5%. - In November 2025, China's solar energy production was 73.49 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 7.8%; China's integrated circuit production was 43.9 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 15.6% [59][64][69][74][78]. 3.8. Imports and Exports - In November 2025, China imported 15,000 tons of tin ore, with a significant month - on - month increase; imported 1,194 tons of tin ingots; and exported 2,045 tons of refined tin and alloys [82]. 3.9. Supply - Demand Table | Year/(10,000 tons) | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | China's Production | 18.1 | 15.9 | 18 | 19.8 | 17.9 | 17.4 | 18.1 | 18.45 | 18.67 | | Overseas Production | 17.7 | 19.5 | 14.8 | 15.3 | 20.1 | 19.2 | 17.1 | 17.5 | 19.3 | | Global Supply | 35.8 | 35.4 | 32.8 | 35.1 | 38 | 36.6 | 35.2 | 35.95 | 37.97 | | China's Demand | 14.9 | 14 | 16.4 | 18.4 | 18.1 | 18.75 | 19.1 | 19.3 | 19.87 | | Overseas Demand | 22.3 | 21.9 | 18.8 | 20.5 | 19.9 | 18.2 | 18.1 | 18.7 | 19.15 | | Global Demand | 37.2 | 35.9 | 35.2 | 38.9 | 38 | 36.95 | 37.2 | 38 | 39.02 | | Global Supply - Demand Balance | - 1.4 | - 0.5 | - 2.4 | - 3.8 | 0.05 | - 0.35 | - 2 | - 2.05 | - 1.05 | [85]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The strength analysis of the tin industry is neutral, with a price range of 365,000 - 395,000 yuan/ton [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, tin prices soared to a record high of 443,380 yuan/ton driven by inventory depletion. The overall fundamentals were strong, with tight supply at the mine end and relatively insensitive terminal demand. However, this week, the fundamentals have loosened, with significant inventory accumulation. Considering the impact of Sino-US strategic stockpiling policies, tin prices may fluctuate widely next week [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading Aspect (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Transaction, Position) - **Spot**: This week, the LME 0 - 3 discount was -$68/ton, and the domestic spot premium was 150 yuan/ton. Overseas premiums showed a rebound [9][10][15] - **Spread**: This week, the tin inter - month structure changed from C structure to B structure [18][19] - **Inventory**: This week, domestic social inventory increased by 2,647 tons, and futures inventory increased by 3,033 tons. LME inventory also increased, and the canceled warrant ratio rebounded to 3.54% [24][27][32] - **Capital**: As of this Friday, the precipitated funds for Shanghai tin were 4,681,950,000 yuan, and the fund flow in the past 10 days was in the inflow direction [36] - **Transaction and Position**: This week, Shanghai tin trading volume and open interest decreased. LME tin trading volume rebounded, and open interest increased. The Shanghai tin position - to - inventory ratio declined [38][44][49] 3.2 Tin Supply (Tin Ore, Refined Tin) - **Tin Ore**: In October 2025, tin concentrate production was 5,972 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.48%. In November 2025, imports were 15,099 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24.41%. This week, the processing fee for 40% tin ore in Yunnan rose to 14,000 yuan/ton, and that for 60% tin ore in Guangxi, Jiangxi, and Hunan rose to 8,000 yuan/ton. The tin ore import profit - and - loss level rebounded [53][54] - **Smelting**: In November 2025, domestic tin ingot production was 15,960 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.06%. This week, the combined operating rate of Jiangxi and Yunnan provinces was 69.38%, a slight rebound from last week [59][61] - **Import**: In November 2025, domestic tin ingot imports were 1,195 tons, exports were 1,048 tons, and the net export was 753 tons. The latest import profit - and - loss was - 6,187 yuan/ton [63][65] 3.3 Tin Demand (Tin Materials, End - Users) - **Consumption Volume**: In November 2025, the apparent consumption of tin ingots was 15,207 tons, and the actual consumption was 14,066 tons [73] - **Tin Materials**: This week, the downstream processing fee declined slightly. The operating rate of monthly solder enterprises in October rebounded to 73.1%. The production and sales of major tin - plated sheet enterprises in August rebounded slightly [75] - **End - User Consumption**: In November 2025, the end - user production performance was good, with the monthly production of integrated circuits, electronics, smartphones, and household appliances such as air conditioners all rebounding. The consumption of household appliances and new energy also rebounded month - on - month. This week, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rebounded, in sync with the performance of tin prices [82][84][89]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply disruption concerns continue, and base metals remain strong. In the short - to - medium term, the logic of weak US dollar expectations and supply disruption concerns remains unchanged. The impact of weak real - time demand is limited, and supply disruption concerns continue to drive up base metals. Long - term, there are still expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and the supply disruption issues of copper, aluminum, and tin still exist, with expectations of tightening supply - demand [1]. - Copper: Supply disruptions in copper mines are frequent, and copper prices continue to run strongly [2][7]. - Alumina: The market sentiment is high, and alumina prices have rebounded strongly [2][7]. - Aluminum: The capital sentiment is optimistic, and aluminum prices continue to show a strong upward trend [2][9]. - Aluminum alloy: Cost support is strong, and the market continues to show a strong upward trend [2][11]. - Zinc: The short - term supply recovery is slow, and zinc prices fluctuate with non - ferrous metals [2][12]. - Lead: The absolute level of social inventory is low, and lead prices continue to rebound [2][16]. - Nickel: Supported by Indonesian policy expectations, nickel prices have soared [2][17]. - Stainless steel: Driven by the rise in nickel prices, the stainless - steel market has soared [2][21]. - Tin: Supply disruptions have emerged again, and tin prices are fluctuating upwards [2][24]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - Information analysis: In 2026, the copper concentrate long - term processing fee benchmark is set at $0/ton and $0/pound. In December 2025, China's electrolytic copper production increased month - on - month and year - on - year. On January 7, 2026, the spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was at a discount to the futures contract. There were strikes at the Mantoverde copper mine in Chile and a delay in the second - phase project of the Mirador copper mine in Ecuador [7]. - Main logic: The Fed's interest - rate cuts and balance - sheet expansion support copper prices. Copper mine supply disruptions are increasing, and the supply is tightening. Refined copper supply is expected to shrink, and although the current demand is weak, the long - term supply - demand is expected to be tight [7]. - Outlook: Copper prices are expected to be volatile and strong due to supply constraints and disruptions [7]. 3.1.2 Alumina - Information analysis: On January 7, 2026, the northern spot comprehensive price of alumina was flat, and the national weighted index decreased slightly. The alumina warehouse receipt was 154,828 tons, unchanged from the previous day [7]. - Main logic: The macro - sentiment amplifies market fluctuations. The supply is in a state of over - accumulation, and the cost support is average. The market is at the bottom and fluctuating, and more smelter production cuts or new ore - end disturbances are needed to boost prices [7]. - Outlook: The current supply - demand is in surplus, but the valuation is in the low - end range, and alumina is expected to remain volatile [7]. 3.1.3 Aluminum - Information analysis: On January 7, 2026, the average price of SMM AOO aluminum increased, and the inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods in the main consumption areas increased. The electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipt on the SHFE increased. Some air - conditioning companies launched the "aluminum replacing copper" standard implementation work, while Gree promised not to raise prices and had no such plan [9]. - Main logic: The macro - outlook is positive. The domestic production capacity and operating rate are high, and the overseas supply has constraints. The current high aluminum prices suppress demand, and inventory has accumulated. Overall, the short - term supply - demand is expected to be tight, and aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and strong [9]. - Outlook: In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and strong. In the medium term, the supply increment is limited, and the demand is resilient, so the price center is expected to rise [9][10]. 3.1.4 Aluminum alloy - Information analysis: On January 7, 2026, the price of Baotai ADC12 aluminum alloy increased [11]. - Main logic: The cost support is strong due to the tight supply of scrap aluminum. The weekly operating rate decreased due to raw material shortages and profit issues. The demand is currently based on rigid procurement, and the inventory has slightly decreased. Overall, the cost support and stable supply - demand are expected to keep prices volatile and strong [11]. - Outlook: In the short and medium terms, prices are expected to be volatile and strong due to cost support and potential supply policy disturbances [11]. 3.1.5 Zinc - Information analysis: On January 7, 2026, the spot price of zinc in different regions was at a premium to the futures contract. As of January 7, the SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory increased. The Mount Isa railway line in Australia was damaged, affecting zinc concentrate supply [12][14]. - Main logic: The macro - outlook is stable. The zinc ore supply is tight in the short term, and the smelter profit has declined. The domestic zinc ingot supply pressure is not large, and the demand is in the off - season. In the short term, zinc prices may remain high and volatile, and in the long term, there is a risk of price decline [14]. - Outlook: In January, zinc prices are expected to be volatile as the production increases slightly, the demand is in the off - season, and the non - ferrous metal sector is strong [14][15]. 3.1.6 Lead - Information analysis: On January 7, 2026, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries increased, and the price of lead ingots increased. The social inventory of lead ingots increased slightly, and the SHFE lead warehouse receipt decreased slightly. After the New Year's Day holiday, the lead industry chain gradually resumed normal trading [16]. - Main logic: The spot premium decreased, the supply was affected by environmental protection with a decline in production, and the demand was mixed. The electric bicycle orders were weak, while the automobile battery orders improved [16]. - Outlook: As smelters resume production, the lead ingot production may increase. The demand is weakening marginally, but the high cost of waste batteries supports prices, so lead prices are expected to be volatile [16][17]. 3.1.7 Nickel - Information analysis: On January 7, 2026, the SHFE nickel warehouse receipt decreased, and the LME nickel inventory increased. The January 2026 KSP price increased. Indonesia plans to regulate the 2026 nickel production quota through RKAB [17][18]. - Main logic: The supply pressure of nickel remains high, and the demand is in the traditional off - season. The policy of Indonesia on nickel production quota is uncertain. Overall, the current supply - demand is loose, and nickel prices are expected to be volatile [17][20]. - Outlook: In January, the supply - demand of nickel is expected to remain loose, and LME inventory is high, suppressing prices. However, if the actual Indonesian quota is low, the oversupply expectation will decline, and nickel prices are expected to be volatile [17][20]. 3.1.8 Stainless steel - Information analysis: The stainless - steel futures warehouse receipt decreased slightly. The price of high - nickel pig iron increased. Indonesia plans to regulate the 2026 nickel production quota through RKAB [21]. - Main logic: The cost of stainless steel is supported by the recovery of nickel - iron prices. The production in December decreased, and the production plan for January may increase slightly. The terminal demand is cautious, and the inventory may accumulate. Overall, stainless - steel prices are expected to be volatile [21][22]. - Outlook: In January, the production may increase slightly, but the demand is weak in the off - season. Considering the long - term suppressed industry profit and mine - end support, stainless - steel prices are expected to be volatile [21][23]. 3.1.9 Tin - Information analysis: On January 6, 2026, the LME tin warehouse receipt increased, the SHFE tin warehouse receipt decreased, and the SHFE tin position increased. The spot price of 1 tin ingot increased [24]. - Main logic: The supply of tin is a major concern. The resumption of production in the Wa State is affected by issues such as explosive approval, and the supply in Indonesia and Africa is also restricted. The supply of tin concentrate is tight, and the production of refined tin is difficult to increase. The demand is expected to increase due to the global economic environment and the development of related industries [24]. - Outlook: Due to high supply risks and low inventory in the industry chain, tin prices are expected to be volatile and strong [24][25]. 3.2行情监测 3.2.1 Index data - Comprehensive index: The commodity index was 2405.76, up 0.78%; the commodity 20 index was 2745.33, up 0.55%; the industrial products index was 2344.88, up 1.20%; the PPI commodity index was 1467.90, up 0.62% [151]. - Non - ferrous metal index: On January 7, 2026, the non - ferrous metal index was 2846.27, up 0.27% on the day, up 6.38% in the past 5 days, up 10.47% in the past month, and up 5.97% since the beginning of the year [152].