Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2026/3/1 How the U.S.-Iran Conflict Affects the Futures Market 美伊冲突如何影响期货市场？ | 陈冬科 | Chen Dongke | 从业资格号 Qualification No.: F03124206 | 投资咨询号 Consulting No.: Z0023470 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 朱善颖 Zhu Shanying | | 从业资格号 Qualification No.: F03138401 | 投资咨询号 Consulting No.: Z0021426 | | 李云旭 Li Yunxu | | 从业资格号 Qualification No.: F03141405 | 投资咨询号 Consulting No.: ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2026-02-25 基本金属震荡整理，关注下游消费恢复 进展 有⾊观点：基本⾦属震荡整理，关注下游消费恢复进展 交易逻辑：据汇通财经网数据，近期美国公布的经济数据偏弱，美联储降 息预期有所升温，尽管关税政策再度出现反复，但考虑到当下美联储降息 预期也在摇摆，估计短期可能还是会对基本金属构成一定压制。原料端延 续偏紧局面；冶炼端仍有扰动预期，整体供应端支撑较强。终端偏弱，现 实供需偏宽松，但中期供需收紧预期仍在，密切跟踪下游消费恢复进展。 整体来看，短期基本金属偏震荡，中期美联储独立性风险和供应扰动担忧 仍在，铜铝锡镍等品种有望维持震荡偏强走势。 铜观点：特朗普关税被否，铜价⾼位震荡。 氧化铝观点：减产预期博弈过剩现实，氧化铝价震荡运⾏。 铝观点：库存累积明显，铝价震荡运⾏。 铝合⾦观点：成本⽀撑延续，价格震荡运⾏。 锌观点：美国关税政策反复，锌价⾼位震荡。 铅观点：伦铅库存⼤幅累积，铅价震荡运⾏。 镍观点：印尼26年镍矿配额落地，镍价偏强运⾏。 不锈钢观点：镍价震荡⾛⾼，不锈钢盘⾯上⾏。 锡观点：暂⽆明显驱动，锡价震荡运⾏。 ⻛险 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual metals, the mid - to long - term outlooks are mostly positive, with some expected to be "oscillating strongly" and others "oscillating". 2. Core Viewpoints - The panic sentiment in the base metals market has eased, and the base metals have stopped falling and stabilized [2]. - In the short term, the panic has been significantly released. With the stop - falling of precious metals and active downstream buying, there are opportunities for short - term low - buying and long - positions in copper, aluminum, tin, and nickel. - In the medium term, due to the risk of the Fed's independence and supply - side disturbances, metals like copper, aluminum, and tin are expected to maintain an oscillating and strong trend. - In the long term, with potential domestic stimulus policies and supply - side issues, the supply and demand of copper, aluminum, and tin are expected to tighten, and their prices are optimistic [2]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Viewpoint**: Market sentiment has recovered, and copper prices have stopped falling and stabilized. - **Analysis**: On February 3, the spot of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper was at a discount of - 150 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 10 yuan/ton. The 25% copper concentrate spot TC was - 50.2 dollars/dry ton, unchanged month - on - month. The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association proposed to consider including copper concentrates in the strategic reserve [8]. - **Logic**: The previous risk - aversion sentiment in the market has recovered, and the strategic reserve value of copper is prominent. The supply of copper mines is increasingly disturbed, the spot TC of copper concentrates continues to decline, and the supply of refined copper is expected to shrink. Although the terminal demand is weak in the off - season, the long - term supply - demand is expected to be tight [8]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating strongly [8]. Alumina - **Viewpoint**: The expectation of production cuts competes with the reality of oversupply, and the alumina price oscillates. - **Analysis**: On January 29, the national weighted index of alumina spot was 2610.4 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the alumina warehouse receipts were 161,521 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2,402 tons [8]. - **Logic**: The current spot average price has declined significantly compared to the end of last year. High - cost inland production capacity is facing losses, but the supply contraction is insufficient. The prices of raw materials such as bauxite and caustic soda are also weak, weakening the price support. The futures price has pressure above, so it is expected to oscillate widely [8]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating [8]. Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: The capital sentiment has recovered, and aluminum prices have stabilized. - **Analysis**: On February 3, the domestic average spot price of electrolytic aluminum was 23,327 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 396 yuan/ton; the spot premium was - 220 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month. On February 2, the inventory of aluminum ingots in major domestic consumption areas was 829,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 29,000 tons; the inventory of aluminum rods was 267,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14,000 tons [8][9]. - **Logic**: The US January interest - rate meeting was neutral, and the short - term risk appetite decreased. But the macro - outlook is expected to be positive. The domestic production capacity is stable, and overseas production is restricted. The weekly initial - stage operating rate has decreased, and the inventory has accumulated. Overall, the macro - expectation is positive, and the supply - demand is expected to be tight [8][9][10][11]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating strongly in the short term, and the price center is expected to rise in the medium term [11]. Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: The cost support continues, and the price oscillates. - **Analysis**: On February 3, ADC12 was reported at 23,000 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 300 yuan/ton; the domestic average spot price of electrolytic aluminum was 23,327 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 396 yuan/ton [12][14]. - **Logic**: The price of scrap aluminum is high, and the supply is tight. Some manufacturers have started the Spring Festival holiday in advance, and the supply may be restricted by policies. The demand is mainly for rigid - need replenishment. The weekly social inventory has accumulated [12]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating strongly in the short and medium terms [12]. Zinc - **Viewpoint**: The sentiment of the non - ferrous sector has stabilized, and the decline of zinc prices has slowed down. - **Analysis**: On February 3, Shanghai 0 zinc had a discount of - 5 yuan/ton to the main contract, Guangdong 0 zinc had a discount of - 35 yuan/ton, and Tianjin 0 zinc had a discount of - 50 yuan/ton. As of February 3, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven places was 111,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,800 tons [12][13]. - **Logic**: The Fed's January interest - rate decision was in line with expectations, but the macro - outlook was volatile. The supply of zinc mines is tight in the short term, and the refinery profit has declined. The domestic consumption is in the off - season, and the demand is average. The short - term export of zinc ingots will continue, and the inventory accumulation pressure is not large. In the long term, the supply of zinc ingots will increase, and the demand growth is limited [13]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating [13]. Lead - **Viewpoint**: The decline of non - ferrous metals has slowed down, but the warehouse receipts have increased significantly, and the lead price oscillates downward. - **Analysis**: On February 3, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton; the price of 1 lead ingots was 16,425 - 16,525 yuan/ton, with an average of 16,475 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 150 yuan/ton. On February 2, the domestic social inventory of lead ingots was 39,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 60 tons; the latest warehouse receipts of Shanghai lead were 33,439 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4,021 tons [14][15]. - **Logic**: The spot premium has increased slightly, the original - recycled spread has decreased, and the futures warehouse receipts have increased. The price of waste batteries has decreased slightly, and the production of recycled lead has decreased. The orders for electric bicycles have weakened, while those for automobile batteries have improved. The operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises has declined from the previous high but is still at a relatively high level [15]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating [15]. Nickel - **Viewpoint**: Market sentiment has recovered, and nickel prices are oscillating upward. - **Analysis**: On February 3, the Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 48,180 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,606 tons; the LME nickel inventory was 285,528 tons, unchanged month - on - month. The price of high - nickel iron in the Chinese market was 1,030 - 1,065 yuan/nickel (including tax at the factory), a decrease of 10 - 15 yuan compared to February 2 [16][17]. - **Logic**: The supply of nickel is under pressure, and the demand is in the off - season. However, Indonesia plans to revise the domestic trade pricing method of nickel ore and lower the 2026 nickel ore quota, which has adjusted the market's cost and balance expectations [16]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating strongly, and the policy changes in Indonesia need to be continuously tracked [16]. Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: Nickel prices have recovered, and the stainless - steel market is oscillating. - **Analysis**: On February 3, the stainless - steel futures warehouse receipt inventory was 43,758 tons, a month - on - month increase of 239 tons. The spot price of Foshan Hongwang 304 had a premium of 415 yuan/ton to the stainless - steel main contract. The price of high - nickel iron in the Chinese market was 1,030 - 1,065 yuan/nickel (including tax at the factory), a decrease of 10 - 15 yuan compared to February 2 [17]. - **Logic**: The price of nickel iron is relatively firm, and the cost of stainless steel has support. The production in December decreased, and the production schedule in January may increase slightly. The terminal demand is still cautious, and the inventory is accumulating [17][18]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating strongly, and the policy changes in Indonesia need to be continuously tracked [18]. Tin - **Viewpoint**: Market sentiment is weak, and tin prices continue to adjust. - **Analysis**: On February 3, the LME tin warehouse receipt inventory increased by 10 tons to 7,105 tons; the Shanghai tin warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 427 tons to 8,097 tons; the Shanghai tin position decreased by 3,262 lots to 92,297 lots. The average price of Yangtze River Nonferrous 1 tin ingots was 392,550 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 36,000 yuan/ton [18]. - **Logic**: The supply of tin is the key factor affecting the price. The supply in Wa State may improve, while the supply in Indonesia is restricted, and the situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is severe. The supply of ore is tightening, and the production of refined tin is difficult to increase. The demand in the semiconductor, photovoltaic, and new - energy vehicle industries is increasing, and the inventory needs to be rebuilt. However, the short - term price may fluctuate due to the strong US dollar, stable ore supply, and weakened bullish power [18]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating strongly in the medium to long term, but short - term price fluctuations need to be vigilant [19]. 4. Market Index Monitoring - On February 3, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities was 2,374.28, a decrease of 1.93%; the commodity 20 index was 2,707.14, a decrease of 2.40%; the industrial products index was 2,290.30, a decrease of 0.97% [145]. - The non - ferrous metals index on February 3, 2026, had a daily decline of 1.15%, a decline of 7.34% in the past 5 days, a decline of 5.65% in the past month, and a decline of 0.29% since the beginning of the year [147].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2026-02-03 有色恐慌杀跌，关注下游买盘 铜观点：美元指数反弹，铜价⼤幅回落。 氧化铝观点：减产预期博弈过剩现实，氧化铝价震荡运⾏。 铝观点：资⾦情绪反复，铝价⼤幅回调。 铝合⾦观点：盘⾯跟随铝锭，价格有所回落。 锌观点：有⾊板块杀跌，锌价⾼位回落。 铅观点：有⾊板块承压但成本⽀撑较⾼，铅价震荡下⾏。 镍观点：有⾊板块集体回调，镍价⼤幅下挫。 不锈钢观点：镍价⼤幅回调，不锈钢盘⾯⾛弱。 锡观点：市场情绪偏弱，锡价延续调整。 ⻛险提⽰：供应扰动；国内政策刺激超预期；美联储鸽派不及预期； 国内需求复苏不及预期；经济衰退。 有⾊观点：有⾊恐慌杀跌，关注下游买盘 交易逻辑：据财联社消息，1月美联储利率决议符合预期，鲍威尔称接下 来降息路径仍取决于经济数据表现，这给降息预期改善提供了空间，但特 朗普提名的下届美联储主席出乎市场预期，投资者对沃仕印象解读为鹰 派，美元指数快速反抽，贵金属杀跌引发有色整体恐慌，资金短期大幅撤 离，整体上看，宏观面预期出现反复，关注美联储降息预期变化。原料端 延续偏紧局面；冶炼端仍有扰动预期，整体供应端支撑 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2026-01-30 市场关注点重回弱美元预期和供应扰 动，基本金属加速走高 有⾊观点：市场关注点重回弱美元预期和供应扰动，基本⾦属加速⾛⾼ 交易逻辑：据财联社消息，1月美联储利率决议符合预期，鲍威尔称接下 来降息路径仍取决于经济数据表现，这给降息预期改善提供了空间，同 时，美元指数破位下跌，投资者风险偏好较高，整体上看，弱美元预期提 振基本金属。原料端延续偏紧局面；冶炼端仍有扰动预期，整体供应端支 撑较强。终端偏弱，在两新补贴发放及抢出口预期背景下，需求有改善预 期，春节前下游有逢低备库需求，近期国内累库进一步放缓。整体来看， 中短期，弱美元预期+供应扰动担忧逻辑回归，并且美元指数破位下跌， 基本金属加速走高，谨慎关注铜铝锡镍做多机会；长期，国内潜在增量刺 激政策预期仍在，并且铜铝锡供应扰动问题仍在，供需仍有趋紧预期，看 好铜铝锡价格走势。 铜观点：美元指数⼤幅下滑，铜价⾛势偏强。 氧化铝观点：减产预期博弈过剩现实，氧化铝价震荡运⾏。 铝观点：资⾦情绪乐观，铝价延续偏强⾛势。 铝合⾦观点：盘⾯跟随铝锭，价格有所上涨。 锌观点：海外 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2026-01-27 美元指数破位下行，基本金属再获提振 有⾊观点：美元指数破位下⾏，基本⾦属再获提振 交易逻辑：近期公布的经济数据整体偏正面，尽管特朗普在局部区域仍较 为活跃，但美元指数破位下跌，投资者风险偏好有所抬升，整体上看，宏 观面预期较为稳定。原料端延续偏紧局面；冶炼端仍有扰动预期，整体供 应端支撑较强。终端偏弱，在两新补贴发放及抢出口预期背景下，需求有 改善预期，春节前下游有逢低备库需求，近期国内累库逐步放缓。整体来 看，中短期，库存偏高对价格有压力；不过，弱美元预期+供应扰动担忧 逻辑没变，并且美元指数破位下跌，可继续关注铜铝锡镍择机低吸做多机 会；长期，国内潜在增量刺激政策预期仍在，并且铜铝锡供应扰动问题仍 在，供需仍有趋紧预期，看好铜铝锡价格走势。 铜观点：库存持续累积，铜价⾼位震荡。 氧化铝观点：基本⾯偏弱，氧化铝价震荡承压。 铝观点：库存延续累积，铝价⾼位震荡。 铝合⾦观点：成本⽀撑延续，盘⾯⾼位震荡。 锌观点：有⾊板块情绪好转，锌价企稳反弹。 铅观点：社会库存累积VS有⾊板块情绪较好，铅价震荡运⾏。 镍观点： ...

Group 1: Gold Market - Spot gold prices have historically surpassed $5000 per ounce for the first time, just over 100 days after breaking the $4000 mark [2][3] Group 2: Geopolitical Tensions - The Israeli Defense Forces have entered a state of high alert due to escalating regional tensions and are preparing for potential U.S. military actions against Iran [4][5] - Iranian armed forces have declared a state of full readiness, monitoring all hostile movements and prepared to retaliate against any form of aggression [6][7] - Turkey's Foreign Minister has warned external forces against attempting regime change in Iran, emphasizing that the current situation will not lead to such an outcome [8][9] Group 3: Chemical Industry - The chemical futures market has shown a collective strengthening, with significant price increases in aromatics such as pure benzene and styrene, driven by multiple factors including capital rotation and supply disruptions [14][15] - Pure benzene futures rose from 5573 yuan/ton to 6056 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.67%, while styrene futures increased from 7124 yuan/ton to 7708 yuan/ton, up 8.19% [15][16] - The recent price surge in styrene is attributed to supply-side disruptions and increased market sentiment, with expectations of further price support from downstream demand as the Chinese New Year approaches [17][19]

Group 1: Gold Market - Spot gold prices have historically surpassed $5000 per ounce for the first time, just over 100 days after breaking the $4000 mark, driven by central bank purchases, geopolitical tensions, and economic uncertainty [3] Group 2: Middle East Tensions - The Israeli Defense Forces have entered a state of high alert, closely monitoring regional tensions and preparing for potential U.S. military actions against Iran that could have repercussions for Israel [5] - Iranian armed forces have declared a state of full readiness, emphasizing their capability to respond to any military aggression, particularly in the strategic Strait of Hormuz [6] - Turkey's Foreign Minister has warned external powers against attempting regime change in Iran, asserting that the current situation will not lead to such outcomes [7] Group 3: Chemical Industry - The chemical futures market has shown a collective strengthening, with significant price increases in aromatics such as pure benzene and styrene, which have become the core drivers of the sector's growth [9] - Pure benzene futures rose from 5573 yuan/ton to 6056 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.67%, while styrene futures increased from 7124 yuan/ton to 7708 yuan/ton, up 8.19% [9] - The recent price surge in ethylene glycol futures is attributed to market interest in undervalued chemical assets, despite ongoing supply pressures from new production capacities expected in 2026 [10][13] - The price increases in pure benzene and styrene are driven by market sentiment and supply disruptions, with styrene prices reaching a six-month high due to unexpected plant outages [11] - Upcoming restarts of styrene production facilities are expected to increase supply, potentially exerting downward pressure on prices [12]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Palm oil, soybean oil, natural rubber, BR rubber [1] - **Bearish**: Industrial silicon [1] - **Sideways**: Stock index, treasury bond, copper, alumina, zinc, nickel, stainless steel, tin, silver, gold, platinum, palladium, rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, ferrosilicon, manganese silicon, soda ash, coking coal, coke, rapeseed oil, cotton, sugar, corn, soybean meal, pulp, log, live pig, fuel oil, ethylene glycol, styrene, methanol, asphalt, PTA, short - fiber, PVC, LPG, container shipping on the European route [1] 2) Core Viewpoints - **Macro - financial**: Policy cools market speculative sentiment, stock index oscillates, long - term bulls can look for opportunities; asset shortage and weak economy benefit treasury bond futures, but short - term interest rate risks are prompted [1] - **Non - ferrous metals**: With policy changes, most non - ferrous metals prices are in a state of high - level or range oscillation, and supply - side factors need attention [1] - **Precious metals and new energy**: Market uncertainty supports precious metals prices, but the suspension of key mineral tariffs may suppress platinum and palladium prices [1] - **Black metals**: The situation of weak reality and strong expectation coexists, and the supply may be affected by energy consumption control and anti - involution [1] - **Agricultural products**: The market conditions vary, some are affected by supply and demand, some by policies and weather, and some are in a state of "supported but lack of drive" [1] - **Energy and chemicals**: Affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical conflicts, supply and demand changes, and device maintenance, prices show different trends [1] 3) Summary by Categories Macro - financial - **Stock index**: Policy regulates the market, short - term oscillation adjustment space is limited, long - term bulls can look for opportunities [1] - **Treasury bond**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial, but short - term interest rate risks are prompted, and attention should be paid to the Japanese central bank's interest rate decision [1] Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: With the suspension of key mineral taxes in the US, short - term concerns ease, and the price oscillates at a high level [1] - **Alumina**: Supply exceeds demand in China, the industry is weak, but the price is near the cost line, so it is expected to oscillate [1] - **Zinc**: The cost center is stable, the fundamentals have few contradictions, and the price fluctuates in a range [1] - **Nickel**: Supply is tight, but inventory accumulation restricts price increase, short - term high - level oscillation [1] - **Stainless steel**: Supply - side disturbances in Indonesia, raw material prices rise, futures run at a high level, beware of squeeze - out risks [1] - **Tin**: The upward trend is suppressed, and attention should be paid to low - buying opportunities in the oscillation range [1] Precious metals and new energy - **Silver, Gold**: Market uncertainty supports prices [1] - **Platinum, Palladium**: Short - term wide - range oscillation, long - term can allocate platinum at low prices or use the "long platinum, short palladium" arbitrage strategy [1] - **Industrial silicon**: Northwest production increases, Southwest production decreases, and polysilicon and organic silicon production decreases in December [1] - **Lithium carbonate**: In the off - season of new energy vehicles, but storage demand is strong, and there is a battery export rush [1] Black metals - **Rebar, Hot - rolled coil, Iron ore**: High production and inventory suppress price increases, and the transmission of futures prices to spot is not smooth [1] - **Ferrosilicon, Manganese silicon**: Weak reality and strong expectation coexist, and supply may be affected by energy consumption control and anti - involution [1] - **Soda ash**: Follows glass, with looser medium - term supply and demand and price pressure [1] - **Coking coal, Coke**: The market is pessimistic about the coking coal 05 contract, and the price may be priced according to Mongolian coal long - term agreement cost [1] Agricultural products - **Palm oil, Soybean oil**: Main consumer countries start purchasing, production areas may reduce production and inventory, and biodiesel themes may ferment [1] - **Rapeseed oil**: Affected by tariff and customs clearance expectations, it is expected to be difficult to fall smoothly, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] - **Cotton**: New crop harvest is expected to be good, but there is a rigid demand for replenishment, and future policies and weather need attention [1] - **Sugar**: Global surplus and domestic new supply increase, short - term fundamentals lack continuous drive [1] - **Corn**: Northeast sales progress is fast, port inventory is low, and there is a pre - holiday replenishment demand [1] - **Soybean meal**: Brazil's harvest progresses, Argentina's weather may cause short - term speculation, and M05 is expected to oscillate weakly [1] - **Pulp, Log**: Affected by macro and external factors, prices are in a state of oscillation [1] - **Live pig**: Supply capacity needs to be further released [1] Energy and chemicals - **Crude oil, Fuel oil**: OPEC+ suspends production increase, affected by the uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement and US sanctions on Venezuela [1] - **Natural rubber**: Short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, follows crude oil, and asphalt profit is high [1] - **BR rubber**: Cost support is strong, market price - support atmosphere is strong, and attention should be paid to downstream acceptance [1] - **PTA, Short - fiber**: PX price rises, PTA maintains high - level operation, and short - fiber follows cost fluctuations [1] - **Ethylene glycol**: Supply - side news stimulates price rebound, and downstream demand exceeds expectations [1] - **Styrene**: Supply - demand fundamentals improve, inventory decreases, and price rebounds [1] - **Methanol**: Affected by the Iranian situation, there is a reduction in expected imports, and downstream feedback is negative [1] - **Asphalt**: Geopolitical conflicts may cause price increases, supply increases, and downstream demand weakens [1] - **PVC**: Global production is low in 2026, but the domestic fundamentals are poor, and there may be a rush to export [1] - **LPG**: February CP is expected to rise, cost support is strong, and inventory is decreasing [1] Others - **Container shipping on the European route**: It is expected to peak in mid - January, airlines' resumption of flights is cautious, and pre - holiday replenishment demand still exists [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Due to supply disruptions and escalating geopolitical risks, platinum and palladium prices are expected to show a moderately strong and volatile trend. As of January 21, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX platinum main contract was 628.5 yuan/gram, with a 2.49% increase, and the closing price of the GFEX palladium main contract was 485.8 yuan/gram, with a 0.21% increase [2]. - Platinum: Supply disruptions and rising geopolitical risks will cause platinum prices to continue their moderately strong and volatile trend in the short term. In the future, supply in South Africa, the main supplier of platinum - group metals, still faces risks such as power supply and extreme weather. Demand in the platinum market is in a stage of structural expansion, and the "interest - rate cut + soft landing" combination will amplify the long - term price elasticity. Overall, platinum prices are expected to be moderately strong and volatile [3]. - Palladium: Although the long - term supply and demand of palladium tend to be loose, short - term spot shortages support prices. The price is expected to remain in a wide - range volatile pattern in the short term, and the price bottom has certain support with the Fed's re - entry into the interest - rate cut cycle [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Platinum - **Current Situation**: As of January 21, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX platinum main contract was 628.5 yuan/gram, with a 2.49% increase [2]. - **Logic**: South African floods may affect production and supply. Geopolitical and trade frictions are intensifying, and factors such as the nomination of the new Fed chair and US tariff expectations on platinum and palladium are key market influencers. In the short term, platinum prices may continue their moderately strong and volatile trend, and investors can consider low - buying opportunities. In the future, South African supply faces power and weather risks, while demand in the platinum market is expanding [3]. - **Outlook**: Moderately strong and volatile. With a healthy supply - demand fundamental and positive macro - expectations, platinum prices are expected to be moderately strong and volatile [3]. Palladium - **Current Situation**: As of January 21, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX palladium main contract was 485.8 yuan/gram, with a 0.21% increase [2]. - **Logic**: The market's previous expectation of a 50% tariff on palladium from the US did not materialize, leading to a price correction. However, the US Department of Commerce's report on Russian - imported palladium is still pending, and the spot shortage continues to support prices. In the short term, palladium prices may remain in a wide - range volatile pattern, and investors are advised to trade cautiously and consider low - buying opportunities. Palladium demand shows significant structural pressure [4]. - **Outlook**: Volatile. Short - term spot shortages support palladium prices, but in the medium - to - long - term, weak fundamentals and low investment attributes will suppress prices [4]. Index Information - **Commodity Index**: On January 21, 2026, the comprehensive index, the commodity 20 index, and the industrial products index were 2427.72 (+0.56%), 2790.52 (+0.61%), and 2316.66 (+0.35%) respectively [50]. - **Plate Index**: On January 21, 2026, the non - ferrous metal index was 2810.63, with a daily increase of 0.61%, a 5 - day decrease of 1.54%, a 1 - month increase of 8.36%, and a year - to - date increase of 4.64% [52].