从基本面来看，8月碳酸锂市场仍呈现供需双增的紧平衡格局。据SMM数据，截至8月21日当周，碳酸锂总产量约为1.91万吨，环比减少842吨。据悉，供 应减量主要来自锂云母端和盐湖端，锂辉石端和回收端产量则有所增加。库存方面，数据显示，截至8月21日当周，碳酸锂社会库存维持去化态势，环比 减少713吨，至14.15万吨左右。其中，冶炼厂、贸易商及其他端口均明显去库，但下游补库量较大。王美丹表示，在碳酸锂价格下跌后，下游补库意愿有 所增强。但需要注意的是，虽然当前碳酸锂总库存环比小幅下降，但库存水平仍处于近一年来高位，供需格局并未大幅改善。 谈及当前碳酸锂市场的主要矛盾，王美丹表示，目前藏格锂业盐湖项目和宁德时代（300750）枧下窝锂云母项目均已停产，青海、江西等地部分矿山企业 同样面临采矿许可证到期的情况。未来需要重点关注上述停产项目的复产节奏，以及其他矿山采矿许可证到期后的生产情况，供应可能继续收缩。 "碳酸锂本轮上涨行情的核心驱动在于供给扰动，但价格上涨对供给的刺激也逐步显现。"中信建投（601066）期货分析师张维鑫表示，8月初供给扰动密 集出现，助推碳酸锂期货价格持续上涨，当价格涨至高位后，部分多头资金 ...

Report Investment Rating - The overall outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillating" [8][10][11][12][13][15][16][18][19]. Core Viewpoints - The coal mine production restriction expectation cannot be falsified in the short term, the coking coal supply is still shrinking, the steel inventory is low, and there is a strong expectation of production restriction before major events, which strongly supports the price. In a stable fundamental state, there may be a resonance between macro - positive policies and the industry in the future. Recently, the black market has been highly volatile and will mainly oscillate within the current range before new drivers emerge [3]. Summary by Category Iron Element - Supply: Overseas mine shipments decreased slightly month - on - month, and the arrival volume at 45 ports dropped to the level of the same period last year, with relatively stable supply and no obvious increase [3]. - Demand: The profitability rate of steel enterprises reached the highest level in the same period of the past three years. Due to regular maintenance, the molten iron output decreased slightly but remained at a high level year - on - year. The possibility of production reduction due to profit reasons is small in the short term. Attention should be paid to whether there are production restriction policies in the second half of the month [3]. - Inventory: The total inventory in the iron ore port area increased due to the concentrated arrival of sea - floating cargoes, but the inventory accumulation range was limited [3]. - Outlook: The fundamental negative drivers are limited, and the price is expected to oscillate in the future [3]. Carbon Element - Supply: Some coal mines in the main production areas reduced production due to factors such as changing working faces and over - production checks, and some coal mines actively stopped or reduced production. Although the Mongolian coal customs clearance remained at a high level, there were restrictions on some traders' haulage recently, which may affect future customs clearance [4]. - Demand: The coke output was temporarily stable, and the rigid demand for coking coal was strong. Downstream enterprises mainly purchased on demand, and the inventory of some coal mines had started to accumulate, increasing the wait - and - see sentiment in the spot market [4]. - Outlook: Under supply disturbances, the short - term supply - demand relationship is tight, and the futures price is expected to be more likely to rise than to fall in the short term [4]. Alloys - Manganese Silicate: The cost support was continuously strengthened by the continuous increase in coke prices. The wait - and - see sentiment in the manganese ore market increased, and the port ore prices remained firm. The downstream demand was still resilient, but the supply - demand relationship might gradually become looser. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [4]. - Ferrosilicon: The output is expected to increase rapidly. The downstream steel - making demand is still resilient, and the supply - demand relationship is healthy. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [4]. Glass - Demand: In the off - season, demand declined, deep - processing orders decreased month - on - month, and the number of days of raw - sheet inventory increased month - on - month. After the futures price dropped, the spot market sentiment declined, and the upstream production and sales decreased significantly [5]. - Supply: One production line was still waiting to produce glass. The upstream inventory decreased slightly, with no prominent internal contradictions but more market sentiment disturbances [5]. - Outlook: Although the cost support strengthened due to the recent increase in coal prices, the fundamentals were still weak. The futures and spot prices are expected to oscillate widely in the short term [5]. Steel - Core Logic: The Sino - US tariff suspension is expected to maintain export resilience. The arrival of delivery resources may increase supply pressure. Terminal demand is weak, and the inventory of five major steel products is accumulating. The fundamental situation has marginally weakened, but the low inventory and potential production - restriction disturbances before the parade still support the short - term futures price [10]. - Outlook: Focus on steel mill production - restriction and terminal demand [10]. Iron Ore - Core Logic: Port trading volume slightly decreased. Spot market prices rose. Overseas mine shipments decreased slightly, and the arrival volume at 45 ports returned to last year's level. Steel enterprise profitability reached a three - year high, and the molten iron output decreased slightly. The port inventory increased due to concentrated arrivals, with limited inventory accumulation [10]. - Outlook: With high demand and stable supply, the price is expected to oscillate [11]. Scrap Steel - Core Logic: The average price of crushed scrap in East China increased slightly. The supply decreased as the shipping willingness was low. The demand increased as the electric - furnace profit was good, and the total daily consumption increased slightly. The factory inventory decreased slightly, and the available inventory days were at a low level [12]. - Outlook: The price is expected to oscillate [12]. Coke - Core Logic: Futures prices were strong due to production - restriction rumors. Spot prices increased. After five rounds of price increases, coke production was stable. Downstream steel mills had good profits and high production enthusiasm, and the iron - water output remained high. The supply - demand structure was tight, and the price was still supported [13]. - Outlook: The market has started the sixth round of price increases, and attention should be paid to possible parade - related production - restriction policies [13]. Coking Coal - Core Logic: Futures prices were strong due to supply disturbances. Spot prices were stable. Supply was affected by production - reduction factors in the main production areas and potential customs - clearance restrictions on Mongolian coal. Demand was firm, and some coal mines had started to accumulate inventory, increasing the wait - and - see sentiment [15]. - Outlook: Supply recovery is expected to be slow, and the futures price is likely to rise in the short term [15]. Soda Ash - Core Logic: The market's expectation of supply reduction increased. Supply capacity was not cleared, and production was at a high level. Demand for heavy soda decreased, and light - soda downstream procurement was weak. The long - term oversupply pattern remained unchanged, and there was significant short - term delivery pressure [18]. - Outlook: The price is expected to oscillate widely in the short term and decline in the long term to promote capacity reduction [18]. Manganese Silicate - Core Logic: The futures price was under pressure due to increased supply. The spot price was firm. The cost increased, and the supply - demand relationship might gradually become looser. Attention should be paid to anti - involution policies [18]. - Outlook: The price is expected to oscillate in the short term, with limited upward space in the long term [18]. Ferrosilicon - Core Logic: The futures price oscillated as production recovery accelerated. The spot price was supported by cost. Supply was expected to increase, and demand from the steel - making and metal - magnesium industries was resilient. Attention should be paid to anti - involution policies [19]. - Outlook: The price is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the long - term fundamentals have potential concerns [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The copper market is affected by macro - events such as the domestic Politburo meeting, the Fed's interest - rate meeting, and the US copper tariff. With a tight raw material supply and seasonal weak demand, copper prices are expected to be range - bound and weak [1]. - The aluminum market is influenced by the approaching trade agreement between the US and the EU and the increase in domestic aluminum ingot social inventory. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [3]. - For lead, the supply of lead ingots is marginally tightened, and with the approaching peak season for lead - acid batteries, there is an expectation of improved downstream procurement. If the inspection of smelters expands, prices may strengthen [4]. - Regarding zinc, in the long - term, zinc prices are bearish due to the abundant supply of zinc ore and the expected increase in zinc ingot production. In the short - term, there are still structural risks overseas and the price is affected by capital sentiment [6]. - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate in a certain range. Although there is an expectation of increased tin ore supply in the third and fourth quarters, the smelting end still faces raw material pressure, and downstream demand is mixed [7]. - Nickel prices are expected to decline further, as the short - term macro - environment cools, stainless - steel prices fall, and demand is weak [8]. - The price of lithium carbonate has decreased, and with the approaching earnings season of overseas mining companies, attention should be paid to changes in the industrial chain and the commodity market [10]. - For alumina, the pattern of over - capacity may be difficult to change. It is recommended to short at high prices considering the market sentiment [13]. - Stainless - steel prices have declined slightly, and the follow - up market depends on macro - news and downstream demand [15]. - The price of cast aluminum alloy is under upward pressure due to the off - season and weak supply - demand [16]. 3. Summary by Metals Copper - **Price**: LME copper closed down 0.34% at $9762/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 79010 yuan/ton. The expected operating range for SHFE copper is 78200 - 79600 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is $9650 - 9920/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory decreased by 1075 to 1247400 tons, and domestic electrolytic copper social inventory increased slightly. SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased to 1.8 million tons [1]. - **Market**: The spot premium in Shanghai decreased, and the downstream procurement improved; in Guangdong, the inventory increased, and the downstream procurement was weak [1]. Aluminum - **Price**: LME aluminum closed flat at $2631/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20660 yuan/ton. The expected operating range for SHFE aluminum is 20500 - 20800 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is $2610 - 2660/ton [3]. - **Inventory**: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory increased, and the SHFE aluminum futures warehouse receipts decreased [3]. - **Market**: The trading volume in the spot market was low, and the market sentiment was affected by the approaching US - EU trade agreement [3]. Lead - **Price**: SHFE lead index closed down 0.25% at 16914 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell to $2019/ton [4]. - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory decreased slightly, and the LME lead inventory was 26.63 million tons [4]. - **Market**: The supply of lead ingots is marginally tightened, and the downstream demand is expected to improve [4]. Zinc - **Price**: SHFE zinc index closed down 1.01% at 22638 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell to $2822.5/ton [6]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory continued to increase, and the LME zinc inventory was 11.58 million tons [6]. - **Market**: The supply of zinc ore is abundant, and the long - term zinc price is bearish. There are still structural risks overseas [6]. Tin - **Price**: SHFE tin closed down 1.50% at 267920 yuan/ton, and the spot tin price was 267000 - 269000 yuan/ton [7]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply of tin ore is expected to increase in the third and fourth quarters, but the smelting end has raw material pressure. Domestic demand is weak, while overseas demand is strong due to AI [7]. - **Market**: Tin prices are expected to fluctuate in the range of 250000 - 270000 yuan/ton domestically and $31000 - 33000/ton for LME tin [7]. Nickel - **Price**: Nickel prices fell. The expected operating range for SHFE nickel is 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is $14500 - 16500/ton [8]. - **Market**: The demand for stainless steel is weak, and the price of nickel ore is expected to decline further [8]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price**: The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate decreased by 2.60%, and the LC2509 contract price decreased by 9.19% [10]. - **Market**: With the approaching earnings season of overseas mining companies, attention should be paid to the industrial chain and the commodity market [10]. Alumina - **Price**: The alumina index fell 5.22% to 3232 yuan/ton. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2509 is 3050 - 3500 yuan/ton [13]. - **Market**: The over - capacity pattern may be difficult to change, and it is recommended to short at high prices [13]. Stainless Steel - **Price**: The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12840 yuan/ton, down 1.46%. Spot prices declined slightly [15]. - **Inventory**: Futures inventory decreased, and social inventory decreased by 2.54% [15]. - **Market**: The short - term price is supported by the steel mill's price - holding policy, and the follow - up market depends on macro - news and downstream demand [15]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price**: The AD2511 contract fell 0.55% to 20025 yuan/ton [16]. - **Inventory**: The domestic inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased [16]. - **Market**: The supply and demand are weak, and the price is under upward pressure [16].

Core Viewpoint - Coking coal futures have surged for five consecutive days, with a cumulative increase of over 40%, indicating a tightening supply situation due to ongoing supply disruptions [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Coking coal futures have experienced a significant price increase, with a total rise exceeding 40% over the past five days [1] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange has adjusted the trading limits for coking coal futures in response to market conditions [1] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Ongoing supply disruptions are contributing to a tight supply situation for coking coal [1] - Analysts suggest that there is a need to be cautious about potential macroeconomic sentiment shifts if policies do not meet expectations [1]

Report Information - Report Name: [Huabao Futures] Non-ferrous Metals Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: June 30, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Views - Aluminum: Macro uncertainty remains high. Low inventory provides support but there are signs of inventory accumulation. Prices are expected to move within a range in the short term. Follow-up attention should be paid to the development of news and the transition of downstream off - season [9]. - Zinc: Supply disruptions boost short - term prices, but medium - to long - term supply increases will put pressure on prices. Attention should be paid to the development of news [10]. - Tin: Prices are expected to be volatile and strong in the short term, but downward pressure will increase in the medium term [11]. Section Summaries 01 Non - ferrous Weekly Market Review - Copper (CU2508): The closing price of the futures main contract on June 27 was 79,920, up 1,930 (2.47%) from June 20. The spot price was 80,160, up 1,790 (2.28%) [7]. - Aluminum (AL2508): The closing price of the futures main contract on June 27 was 20,580, up 115 (0.56%) from June 20. The spot price was 20,940, up 240 (1.16%) [7]. - Zinc (ZN2508): The closing price of the futures main contract on June 27 was 22,410, up 565 (2.59%) from June 20. The spot price was 22,406, up 634 (2.91%) [7]. - Tin (SN2508): The closing price of the futures main contract on June 27 was 268,870, up 8,310 (3.19%) from June 20. The spot price was 270,500, up 6,500 (2.46%) [7]. - Nickel (NI2508): The closing price of the futures main contract on June 27 was 120,480, up 2,200 (1.86%) from June 20. The spot price was 122,540, up 1,900 (1.57%) [7]. 02 This Week's Non - ferrous Market Forecast Aluminum - Logic: Last week, aluminum prices first declined and then rose. The impact of the rainy season in Guinea is expected to gradually emerge. The average weekly outbound volume in the 4th week of May was 3.54 million tons/week, and in the 4th week of June, it was 3.32 million tons/week, a decrease of 220,000 tons/week. In June, the PMI composite index of the aluminum processing industry was 40.1%, falling below the boom - bust line, a decrease of 9.7 percentage points month - on - month and 1.5% year - on - year. As of June 30, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in the main domestic consumption areas was 468,000 tons, an increase of 5,000 tons from last Thursday and 4,000 tons from last Monday. Due to the increase in the overall supply of aluminum ingots in late June and the high price of aluminum inhibiting consumption and outbound performance, inventory accumulation occurred as expected. In early July, with the expected slight increase in the ingot - casting volume in some provinces, inventory may continue to increase steadily. [9] - View: Macro uncertainty remains high. Low inventory provides support but there are signs of inventory accumulation. Prices are expected to move within a range in the short term. Follow - up attention should be paid to the development of news and the transition of downstream off - season. [9] Zinc - Logic: Last week, zinc prices were strong. The macro - market sentiment improved due to macro - easing, and the expectation of interest rate cuts also supported the upward movement of LME zinc. There was a strike by workers at a zinc smelter in Peru, and overseas inventories have been declining recently, which brought uncertainty to the supply side and drove prices up. The operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises was 58.72%, a decrease of 0.28% month - on - month. The procurement of zinc oxide enterprises decreased due to the rising zinc price and weakening downstream consumption, and the raw material inventory decreased while the finished product inventory increased. The operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises was 46.54%, a decrease of 8.58 percentage points month - on - month. Due to the rising zinc price, enterprise procurement willingness was low, and the raw material inventory decreased. Due to weakening downstream consumption and high prices, the outbound volume of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises decreased, and the finished product inventory increased. As of June 30, the total inventory of zinc ingots in SMM's seven regions was 80,600 tons, an increase of 2,800 tons from June 23 and 1,100 tons from June 26. [10] - View: Zinc supply disruptions boost short - term prices, but medium - to long - term supply increases will put pressure on prices. Attention should be paid to the development of news. [10] Tin - Logic: Overseas supply remains tight, domestic smelting enterprise inventories are low, and the operating rate has decreased. Although future supply is expected to be loose, short - term supply tightness continues to support tin prices. Downstream demand has not changed much, but there are signs of slowing growth in sectors such as semiconductors, automobiles, and home appliances, which may put some pressure on tin. [11] - View: Prices are expected to be volatile and strong in the short term, but downward pressure will increase in the medium term. [11] 03 Variety Data Aluminum - Bauxite: The price of domestic high - grade bauxite in Henan remained unchanged at 640 yuan/ton from June 20 to June 27, up 15 year - on - year; the price of domestic low - grade bauxite in Henan remained unchanged at 570 yuan/ton, up 30 year - on - year; the average import bauxite price index was 74.21 US dollars/ton on June 27, a decrease of 0.22 from June 20 and an increase of 2.04 year - on - year. The port arrival volume on June 27 was 4.8992 million tons, an increase of 698,300 tons from June 20 and 716,400 tons year - on - year; the port outbound volume was 3.7212 million tons, a decrease of 783,300 tons from June 20 and an increase of 13,100 tons year - on - year. [15][18] - Alumina: The domestic price in Henan on June 27 was 3,090 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 from June 20 and 790 year - on - year; the full cost was 2,866.9 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.5 from June 20 and an increase of 47.8 year - on - year; the profit in Shanxi was 136 yuan/ton, a decrease of 65 from June 20 and 957.58 year - on - year. [21] - Electrolytic Aluminum: The total cost on June 27 was 16,864.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 125.37 from June 20 and 1,096.24 year - on - year; the regional price difference between Foshan and SMM A00 aluminum was - 110 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 from June 20 and 80 year - on - year. The operating rates of aluminum cable, aluminum foil, aluminum plate and strip, aluminum profile, primary aluminum alloy, and recycled aluminum alloy all had certain changes. The bonded - area inventory in Shanghai on June 26 was 103,300 tons, an increase of 2,500 tons from June 19 and 57,200 tons year - on - year; the total bonded - area inventory was 119,300 tons, an increase of 5,000 tons from June 19 and 67,200 tons year - on - year; the social inventory on June 30 was 468,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons from June 23 and a decrease of 295,000 tons year - on - year; the weekly outbound volume of aluminum ingots in the main consumption areas on June 23 was 108,800 tons, a decrease of 11,500 tons from June 16 and an increase of 11,100 tons year - on - year. The SHFE inventory on June 27 was 94,290 tons, a decrease of 10,194 tons from June 20 and 167,910 tons year - on - year; the LME inventory was 345,200 tons, an increase of 2,350 tons from June 20 and a decrease of 687,675 tons year - on - year. The basis and monthly spread of SMM A00 aluminum also had corresponding changes. [23][27][32][33] Zinc - Zinc Concentrate: The domestic zinc concentrate price on June 27 was 17,400 yuan/metal ton, an increase of 432 from June 20 and a decrease of 3,090 year - on - year; the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee remained unchanged at 3,600 yuan/metal ton from June 20, an increase of 1,300 year - on - year; the imported zinc concentrate processing fee was 65.25 US dollars/dry ton, an increase of 9.98 from June 20. The enterprise production profit was 4,400 yuan/metal ton, an increase of 432 from June 20 and a decrease of 2,548 year - on - year; the import profit and loss was - 988.96 yuan/ton, a decrease of 558.63 from June 20 and 906.63 year - on - year; the imported zinc concentrate inventory in Lianyungang on June 27 was 80,000 physical tons, a decrease of 10,000 from June 20 and an increase of 64,000 year - on - year. [49][52] - Refined Zinc: The social inventory of zinc ingots in SMM's seven regions on June 30 was 80,600 tons, an increase of 2,800 tons from June 23 and a decrease of 117,300 tons year - on - year; the bonded - area inventory on June 26 was 6,000 tons, unchanged from June 19 and a decrease of 7,500 tons year - on - year; the SHFE refined zinc inventory on June 27 was 43,633 tons, an increase of 769 from June 20 and a decrease of 83,064 tons year - on - year; the LME zinc inventory was 119,225 tons, a decrease of 7,000 tons from June 20 and 120,375 tons year - on - year. [55] - Galvanized: The production volume on June 27 was 334,740 tons, a decrease of 4,960 from June 20 and 5,480 year - on - year; the operating rate was 56.21, a decrease of 2.39 from June 20 and 0.89 year - on - year; the raw material inventory was 14,525 tons, a decrease of 720 from June 20 and an increase of 1,475 year - on - year; the finished product inventory was 379,500 tons, an increase of 600 from June 20 and a decrease of 47,680 year - on - year. The basis and monthly spread of SMM 0 zinc ingot also had corresponding changes. [58][61][65] Tin - Refined Tin: The combined output of Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces on June 27 was 2,470 tons, an increase of 200 tons from the previous period and a decrease of 790 tons year - on - year; the combined operating rate was 50.97%, an increase of 4.13 percentage points from the previous period and a decrease of 16.3 percentage points year - on - year. [69] - Tin Ingot: The total SHFE tin ingot inventory on June 27 was 6,955 tons, a decrease of 10 from the previous period and 8,172 tons year - on - year; the social inventory in Chinese regions was 9,096 tons, an increase of 251 from the previous period and a decrease of 7,221 tons year - on - year. [72] - Tin Ore: The tin concentrate processing fees in Yunnan (40%), Guangxi (60%), Hunan (60%), and Jiangxi (60%) remained unchanged from June 20, with a year - on - year decrease of 5,000. The tin ore import profit and loss level on June 26 was 10,606.89 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8,635.29 from the previous period and 6,890.96 year - on - year. The average prices of 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan and 60% tin concentrate in Guangxi, Hunan, and Jiangxi all increased by 5,700 from June 20 and 6,250 year - on - year. [74][75][79]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for both coking coal and coke are "Oscillation". There are no specific ratings for cross - varieties, spot - futures, and options [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - Coking coal and coke present a situation where short - term improvement and long - term pressure coexist. The short - term marginal situation has improved due to inventory reduction and supply disruptions, but the medium - and long - term pattern of loose supply and demand remains unchanged [2]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Price and Spread - As of the close this Friday, the coke 2509 contract closed at 1,379.0 yuan/ton, up 26.5 yuan/ton from last week, a rise of 1.96%. The coking coal 2509 contract closed at 795.0 yuan/ton, up 7.6 yuan/ton from last week, a rise of 0.95%. The futures prices showed a range - bound oscillation influenced by the marginal improvement in spot supply and demand [1][5]. Supply - This week, the total daily average output of steel mill coking and independent coking was 112.10 million tons, a decrease of 0.18 million tons from last week. The capacity utilization rate of the full sample of independent coking enterprises was 73.57%, a decrease of 0.39%; the daily average coke output was 64.70 million tons, a decrease of 0.34 million tons. For the 247 steel mill samples, the daily average coke output was 47.39 million tons, an increase of 0.15 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 87.39%, an increase of 0.27% [1][24][27]. Demand - According to Mysteel statistics, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills reached 83.82%, an increase of 0.41% from last week; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.79%, an increase of 0.21% from last week; the steel mill profitability rate was 59.31%, an increase of 0.87 percentage points from last week; the daily average pig iron output was 242.18 million tons, an increase of 0.57 million tons from last week [1][37]. Inventory - According to Mysteel research data, the coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 634.2 million tons this period, a decrease of 8.64 million tons from last week; the total inventory of the full sample was 1,006.0 million tons, a decrease of 21.25 million tons from last week. The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills was 7,747 million tons, an increase of 0.72 million tons from last week; the total inventory of the full - caliber was 3,391.95 million tons, a decrease of 85.63 million tons from last week [2][38].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the report's industry investment rating in the provided content Group 2: Core Views - The short - term and medium - term views of both coking coal and coke are "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", with a reference view of "low - level oscillation" [1] - For coking coal, the market sentiment change is due to supply - side disturbances and macro - positive expectations from international events. It has stopped falling and rebounded, but the supply - easing pattern may return, and the impact of geopolitics on coal prices needs further assessment [5] - For coke, it maintains a pattern of both supply and demand decline in the off - season. The cost support from coking coal has strengthened, driving the price to stop falling and rebound slightly [7] Group 3: Summary by Variety Coking Coal - **Price**: On the night of June 17, the main coking coal contract oscillated around 790 yuan/ton. The latest quotation of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port is 865.0 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2.8%, and the equivalent futures warehouse receipt cost is about 834 yuan/ton [5] - **Core Logic**: Supply - side disturbances and macro - positive expectations have led to a short - and medium - term adjustment. But it will take time to reverse the supply - easing pattern, and the supply pressure may return after July. The impact of geopolitics on coal prices needs further assessment [5] Coke - **Price**: On the night of June 17, the main coke contract oscillated narrowly. After three rounds of price cuts, the price has been stable this week. The latest quotation of quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port is 1270 yuan/ton, week - on - week unchanged, and the equivalent futures warehouse receipt cost is about 1401 yuan/ton [7] - **Core Logic**: It maintains a pattern of both supply and demand decline in the off - season. The marginal decline in coking coal production and international events have strengthened the cost support, driving the price to stop falling and rebound slightly [7]