1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly mention industry - wide investment ratings. 2. Core Views - The global geopolitical situation, especially the conflict in the Middle East, has a significant impact on the commodity market. Supply disruptions and cost increases are common themes across various industries [7][8][118]. - Different commodities have different trends. Some are expected to be strong due to supply shortages or cost - driven factors, while others may face downward pressure or be in a state of shock [11][13][88]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Metals - **Aluminum**: Concerns about supply disruptions are high. Middle - East aluminum plants have been affected, and if production cuts expand, prices may rise. However, there are also risks from macro - negative pricing [8]. - **Copper**: The strong US dollar restricts price rebounds. There are geopolitical and industry - specific factors such as attacks in the Middle East and production changes in different countries [23][25]. - **Zinc**: It is running strongly, with price and trading volume showing positive trends [26]. - **Lead**: Reduced inventory supports prices [29]. - **Tin**: It shows a stable and upward trend. Market sentiment is affected by supply concerns from Indonesia, and fundamentals are strong with high premiums and inventory depletion [11]. - **Nickel**: Inventory accumulation is slowing, and the cost of pyrometallurgy is rising due to support from the ore end [44]. - **Stainless Steel**: There is a game between demand and cost, and steel prices are oscillating [45]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold is affected by the easing of geopolitical tensions, and silver has fallen from the shock platform [19]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil and Related Products**: The conflict in the Middle East has led to supply disruptions, and oil - related products are affected by cost support and supply - demand changes [12][83]. - **Methanol**: It is expected to run strongly, with supply disturbances from geopolitical factors and inventory decline [118][119]. - **Urea**: The price center is moving up, with a neutral - to - strong domestic fundamental pattern [123]. - **Benzene and Related Products**: Benzene is in a strong shock state, with supply shortages and increased downstream demand [126]. - **LPG and Propylene**: There are geopolitical risks and supply disturbances, and the trend is strong [136][137]. - **PVC**: The driving force is upward, with long - term support from supply disturbances and cost increases [146]. - **Fuel Oil**: The night - session price rebounds, and it may be strong in the short term [148]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: It is in a high - level shock operation due to continuous oil - price disturbances [176]. - **Soybean Products**: Soybean meal may be in a weak shock, and soybean is in a state of adjustment shock due to factors such as the US EPA's renewable fuel policy and expected changes in planting areas [182][184]. - **Corn**: It is running in a shock state [185]. - **Sugar**: It is in a strong shock state, with changes in domestic and international production and consumption [189][190]. - **Cotton**: The domestic market lacks new driving forces [193]. - **Eggs**: Wait for opportunities to short at high prices in the far - month contracts [197]. - **Hogs**: The weight - reduction is less than expected, and the price center will move down again [200]. - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to oil - mill acquisitions [204]. Others - **Shipping**: The container shipping market is affected by the situation in the Middle East. The near - month contract of the container shipping index (European line) is in a narrow - range shock, and the far - month contract fluctuates with geopolitical factors [150][161][162]. - **Paper**: The market for offset printing paper is in a wait - and - see state [166].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints - The copper price is expected to show a downward trend in oscillation. The aluminum price is expected to rise in the short - term. The price of cast aluminum alloy is expected to rise in oscillation. The lead price may decline further. The zinc price has entered a downward trend and may decline further after a wide - range consolidation. The tin price is expected to be weak. The nickel price is expected to weaken in the short - term but has strong support at the bottom in the medium - term. The price of lithium carbonate is affected by resource - side issues, and the future trend needs further observation. The price of alumina is recommended to be observed. The stainless - steel market is expected to remain strong in the short - term [3][6][9][13][14][16][19][22][25][29] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper Market Information - On Friday, the LME 3M copper contract closed up 0.17% at $12,141 per ton, and the SHFE copper main contract closed at 95,490 yuan per ton. The LME inventory increased by 425 to 360,250 tons, and the cancellation warrant ratio increased. The domestic SHFE weekly inventory decreased by 52,000 to 359,000 tons, and the daily warrant continued to decrease by 9,000 to 237,000 tons. The spot discount in East China slightly narrowed to 95 yuan per ton, and the spot premium in Guangdong rose to 100 yuan per ton. The domestic copper spot import profit was about 100 yuan per ton, and the refined - scrap copper price difference was 790 yuan per ton, widening compared to the previous period [2] Strategy Viewpoint - The repeated Middle - East situation suppresses the copper price on the sentiment side. The tight supply of copper ore remains, and the domestic inventory is desirably reduced after the copper price decline. The supply and substitution of scrap copper are reduced, and the short - term inventory is expected to continue to decline, providing support for the copper price. Overall, the copper price may show a downward trend in oscillation. The operating range of the SHFE copper main contract is expected to be 94,000 - 97,000 yuan per ton, and that of the LME 3M copper is 11,900 - 12,400 US dollars per ton [3] Aluminum Market Information - The repeated Middle - East situation pushed up the crude - oil price, and the rising energy cost pushed up the aluminum price. On Friday, the LME 3M aluminum contract closed up 0.92% at $3,284 per ton, and the SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 24,085 yuan per ton. The position of the SHFE weighted aluminum contract decreased by 2,000 to 556,000 lots, and the futures warrant increased by 3,000 to 408,000 tons. The inventory of aluminum ingots in three places slightly increased, and the inventory of aluminum rods decreased. The processing fee of aluminum rods on Friday decreased, and the trading atmosphere was average. The spot discount of aluminum ingots in East China narrowed to 90 yuan per ton, and the buying sentiment was relatively positive. The LME inventory decreased by 2,000 to 421,000 tons, the cancellation warrant ratio declined, and the Cash/3M premium rose to $61.2 per ton [4] Strategy Viewpoint - The negotiation between the US and Iran continues, and the military action persists. The crude - oil price remains strong, and the market risk preference is still under pressure. The aluminum price is supported by energy costs and supply disturbances on the one hand and suppressed by sentiment on the other hand. Overseas aluminum - plant maintenance and production cuts will bring substantial production reduction, and the attacks on aluminum plants in the UAE and Bahrain over the weekend increased supply concerns. The overseas aluminum supply is expected to remain tight. The domestic downstream operating rate continues to increase, and the processing fee of aluminum rods returns to a relatively normal level, which helps inventory digestion. The aluminum price is expected to rise in the short - term. The operating range of the SHFE aluminum main contract is expected to be 23,800 - 24,800 yuan per ton, and that of the LME 3M aluminum is 3,220 - 3,400 US dollars per ton [5][6] Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Information - On Friday, the price of cast aluminum alloy rebounded. The main AD2605 contract closed up 0.88% at 22,960 yuan per ton (as of 3 pm). The weighted contract position increased to 16,800 lots, and the trading volume was 10,600 lots. The trading volume increased, and the warrant decreased by 2,400 to 36,700 tons. The price difference between the AL2605 contract and the AD2605 contract was 975 yuan per ton, slightly widening compared to the previous period. The average price of ADC12 in the domestic mainstream area increased, and the import price of ADC12 rose by 100 yuan per ton. The downstream procurement enthusiasm was good. The SHFE weekly inventory decreased by 7,900 to 45,800 tons, and the inventory of aluminum alloy ingots in three places slightly increased to 31,300 tons [8] Strategy Viewpoint - The cost - side price of cast aluminum alloy has recovered. The demand is expected to continue to improve with the resumption of work and production downstream. Coupled with supply - side disturbances and tight raw - material supply, the price is expected to rise in oscillation in the short - term [9] Lead Market Information - Last Friday, the SHFE lead index closed up 0.57% at 16,553 yuan per ton, and the total position of unilateral trading was 113,100 lots. As of 15:00 last Friday, the LME 3S lead rose 6.5 to $1,907.5 per ton compared to the previous day, and the total position was 177,100 lots. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,325 yuan per ton, and the average price of recycled refined lead was 16,325 yuan per ton. The refined - scrap price difference was at par. The average price of waste electric - vehicle batteries was 9,775 yuan per ton. The SHFE lead - ingot futures inventory was 52,500 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 150 yuan per ton, and the price difference between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was - 40 yuan per ton. The LME lead - ingot inventory was 283,100 tons, and the LME lead - ingot cancellation warrant was 14,300 tons. The foreign - market cash - 3S contract basis was - 34.62 US dollars per ton, and the 3 - 15 price difference was - 135 US dollars per ton. After excluding the exchange rate, the SHFE - LME price ratio was 1.256, and the lead - ingot import profit and loss was 591.16 yuan per ton. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets on March 26 was 57,600 tons, a decrease of 5,500 tons compared to March 23 [11] Strategy Viewpoint - The visible inventory of lead concentrate has increased, and the production of primary smelting has remained stable. The visible inventory of lead waste has increased, and the production of recycled lead has recovered. The inventories of primary and recycled lead - ingot factories have decreased, and the social inventory of lead ingots has also decreased. The downstream battery enterprises stock up at low prices, and the low operating rate of recycled - smelting enterprises provides short - term support for the spot market. However, the current high SHFE - LME price ratio leads to an increase in imported lead ingots and a decrease in exported batteries. The high oil price has triggered a recession narrative, and the non - ferrous metal sector is under pressure as a whole. There is a possibility that the lead price will decline further [12][13] Zinc Market Information - Last Friday, the SHFE zinc index closed up 1.33% at 23,377 yuan per ton, and the total position of unilateral trading was 177,500 lots. As of 15:00 last Friday, the LME 3S zinc rose 33.5 to $3,105.5 per ton compared to the previous day, and the total position was 210,400 lots. The average price of SMM0 zinc ingots was 23,210 yuan per ton. The basis in Shanghai was - 60 yuan per ton, the basis in Tianjin was - 90 yuan per ton, the basis in Guangdong was - 30 yuan per ton, and the price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong was - 30 yuan per ton. The SHFE zinc - ingot futures inventory was 95,800 tons, the domestic Shanghai - area basis was - 60 yuan per ton, and the price difference between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was - 45 yuan per ton. The LME zinc - ingot inventory was 115,700 tons, and the LME zinc - ingot cancellation warrant was 5,700 tons. The foreign - market cash - 3S contract basis was - 16.14 US dollars per ton, and the 3 - 15 price difference was 64.55 US dollars per ton. After excluding the exchange rate, the SHFE - LME price ratio was 1.09, and the zinc - ingot import profit and loss was - 2,327.99 yuan per ton. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets on March 26 was 214,400 tons, a decrease of 5,100 tons compared to March 23. After the continuous decline of SHFE zinc, the downstream actively replenished inventory at low prices [14] Strategy Viewpoint - The visible inventory of zinc concentrate has decreased marginally, the import TC of zinc concentrate has continued to decline, and the domestic TC has stopped falling and stabilized. There was a large - scale delivery of LME zinc again, and the structural risk has been further reduced. After the zinc price declined, the downstream replenished inventory to a certain extent, and the zinc price stopped falling and stabilized in the short - term. However, the basis and monthly price difference of SHFE zinc have not increased significantly, and the sustainability of subsequent purchases is expected to be limited. The current high oil price has triggered a recession narrative, and the market is discussing the possibility of the Fed raising interest rates this year. The non - ferrous metal sector is under pressure as a whole. The zinc price has entered a downward trend and may decline further after a wide - range consolidation at the current price level [14] Tin Market Information - On March 27, the SHFE tin main contract closed at 362,460 yuan per ton, a 3.71% increase from the previous day. On the supply side, with the resumption of work and production after the Spring Festival and the Lantern Festival, the operating rates of smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi have rebounded from the holiday low, and the industry's production activities have entered a moderate recovery stage. The resumption of production in Yunnan is relatively faster, and the improvement in the operating rate is more obvious. Although there is also a recovery in Jiangxi, the recovery amplitude is relatively limited, and the overall recovery slope is relatively gentle. On the demand side, affected by the Spring Festival holiday in February, the downstream consumption significantly shrank. In March, the improvement in actual terminal purchases is still relatively limited, and there has not been a substantial recovery. Last week, the tin price dropped significantly, and downstream enterprises actively replenished inventory, driving the inventory to significantly decrease. As of March 20, 2026, the social inventory of tin ingots in major domestic markets was 11,035 tons, a decrease of 2,770 tons compared to the previous period [15] Strategy Viewpoint - Although the tin supply has improved marginally compared to before the Spring Festival, it is still constrained by the tight raw - material supply. Under the pressure on both the ore and recycled - material sides, the release of smelting - end production capacity is slow, and the short - term supply increase is expected to be limited. The demand has improved marginally, and the short - term consumption maintains a weak recovery pattern. The downstream enterprises' inventory replenishment at low prices provides short - term support for the tin price. However, considering the continuous geopolitical disturbances and the significant decline in the US interest - rate cut expectation, the global risk assets are under pressure as a whole. It is expected that the tin price will be weak. The operating range of the domestic main contract is expected to be 320,000 - 390,000 yuan per ton, and that of the overseas LME tin is 41,000 - 49,000 US dollars per ton [16] Nickel Market Information - On March 27, the SHFE nickel main contract closed at 137,100 yuan per ton, a 0.91% increase from the previous day. In the spot market, the premium and discount of each brand were weakly stable. The average premium and discount of Russian nickel spot to the near - month contract was - 200 yuan per ton, a decrease of 50 yuan per ton compared to the previous day. The average premium of Jinchuan nickel spot was 5,400 yuan per ton, a decrease of 750 yuan per ton compared to the previous day. On the cost side, the ex - factory price of 1.6% - grade Indonesian domestic - trade laterite nickel ore was reported at $71.64 per wet ton, with the price remaining unchanged from the previous day. The ex - factory price of 1.2% - grade Indonesian domestic - trade laterite nickel ore was reported at $32.5 per wet ton, with the price remaining unchanged from the previous day. The price of ferronickel slightly decreased. The average price of 10 - 12% high - nickel pig iron was reported at 1,083 yuan per nickel point, remaining unchanged from the previous day [18] Strategy Viewpoint - In the short - term, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has led to an increase in the long - term US inflation expectation, and risk assets are under pressure as a whole. It is expected that the nickel price will also weaken. However, in the medium - term, the improvement trend of the global nickel - element supply - demand situation is certain, and the nickel price has strong support at the bottom, with limited downward space. Short - selling is not recommended. The operating range of the SHFE nickel price this week is expected to be 130,000 - 160,000 yuan per ton, and that of the LME 3M nickel contract is 16,000 - 20,000 US dollars per ton. In terms of operation, it is recommended to sell high and buy low and mainly conduct range operations [19] Lithium Carbonate Market Information - On March 27, the evening quotation of the Wuganglian lithium - carbonate spot index (MMLC) was 159,916 yuan, a 2.35% increase from the previous working day and a 10.35% increase within the week. The MMLC battery - grade lithium - carbonate quotation was 156,000 - 164,700 yuan, and the average price increased by 3,700 yuan (+2.36%) compared to the previous working day. The industrial - grade lithium - carbonate quotation was 153,000 - 161,500 yuan, and the average price increased by 2.28% compared to the previous day. The closing price of the LC2605 contract was 168,440 yuan, a 7.15% increase from the previous closing price and a 17.09% increase within the week. The average premium and discount of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the trading market was - 1,250 yuan. The CIF quotation of SMM Australian - imported SC6 lithium concentrate was 2,150 - 2,320 US dollars per ton, and the average price increased by 1.13% compared to the previous day and 7.71% within the week [21] Strategy Viewpoint - Recently, the contradiction in the lithium - carbonate market is concentrated on the resource side. The short - term pressure of domestic lithium - salt spot shortage has been slightly alleviated, but there are disturbances in major resource - producing areas such as Jiangxi, Zimbabwe, and Australia, and long - term concerns have increased. The growth momentum of domestic lithium - carbonate production remains unchanged, and the weekly inventory increase is the highest since August last year. However, whether the de - stocking trend has been completely reversed still needs to be observed. On the ore side, if the resumption of lithium - ore production in Jiangxi is postponed, the negotiation on the Zimbabwean mineral - export ban fails, and Australia reduces production due to energy - supply problems, the sustainability of domestic lithium - salt supply will be under pressure. The lithium - battery demand is expected to remain strong. Multiple new car models will be launched in the second quarter, and the overdraft effect of electric - vehicle sales may be alleviated. There are expectations of new orders for commercial vehicles and household energy storage. In the future

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - There are still geopolitical risks in the LPG market, with frequent supply disruptions. The supply of propylene is expected to decrease due to geopolitical impacts on the cost side [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: - For LPG (PG), on March 27, 2026, the 2604 contract had a closing price of 6,823 with a daily increase of 4.03%, and a night - session closing price of 6,764 with a decrease of 0.86%. The 2605 contract had a closing price of 6,541 with a decrease of 0.14%, and a night - session closing price of 6,550 with an increase of 0.14%. The 2606 contract had a closing price of 6,342 with an increase of 0.54%, and a night - session closing price of 6,336 with a decrease of 0.09%. - For propylene (PL), the 2604 contract had a closing price of 8,894 with an increase of 2.21%, and a night - session closing price of 8,980 with an increase of 0.97%. The 2605 contract had a closing price of 8,851 with an increase of 1.13%, and a night - session closing price of 8,955 with an increase of 1.18%. The 2606 contract had a closing price of 8,697 with an increase of 0.94%, and a night - session closing price of 8,803 with an increase of 1.22% [1]. - **Spot Market**: - For LPG, the prices in different regions showed various changes. For example, the price of Shandong civil LPG was 6,250, with a change of - 220 compared to the previous day, and the main - contract basis was - 291 with a change of - 211. - For propylene, the price in Shandong was 8,800, with a change of - 185, and the main - contract basis was - 51 with a change of - 284 [1]. - **Industrial Chain Start - up**: - The PDH start - up rate was 63.6%, a decrease of 2.03 compared to the previous week. The alkylation start - up rate was 38.6% with no change, and the MTBE start - up rate was 69.89%, an increase of 0.38 [1]. - **LPG Shipment Volume**: - From the United States, the global shipment volume was 30.9 (in ten thousand tons), an increase of 13.9 compared to the previous day. The Asian shipment volume was 13.5, an increase of 8.9. The shipment volume to Southeast Asia was 4.6, a decrease of 0.1. From the Middle East, the global and Asian shipment volumes remained unchanged at 0.0 [1]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LPG is 1, and the trend intensity of propylene is also 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, where - 2 means the most bearish and 2 means the most bullish [5]. 3.3 Market Information - On March 26, 2026 (Singapore closing time), the April CP paper - cargo price of propane was 638 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 7 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day; the price of butane was 633 US dollars/ton, also a decrease of 7 US dollars/ton. The May CP paper - cargo price of propane was 651 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 9 US dollars/ton [6]. - There are multiple domestic PDH device maintenance plans and domestic liquefied gas factory device maintenance plans, with details including enterprise names, device types, capacities, maintenance start and end times, etc. [7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper prices fluctuated and declined this week, mainly due to significant macro - geopolitical disturbances. The report maintains a bullish view on copper in the medium term as it has demand growth and supply limitations [1]. - Aluminum: Qatar's 600,000 - ton aluminum plant suspended production cuts. With overseas capacity losses difficult to recover quickly and risk premiums remaining, it is advisable to go long on dips [1]. - Zinc: The domestic fundamentals of zinc are average, but limited long - term capital investment and supply disruptions from Iranian zinc mines are expected to support short - term zinc prices [2]. - Nickel: The short - term fundamental situation is weak, but with many supply - side disturbances and strengthened Indonesian nickel price control policies, nickel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [6]. - Stainless steel: The fundamentals are weak, and it is expected to follow nickel prices and fluctuate within a range due to supply - side policy intervention and weak fundamentals [10]. - Lead: With high profits and high开工 in primary lead production and weak terminal demand, lead prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [14]. - Tin: Tin prices fluctuated and declined this week. The supply side is in the process of recovery, and the price is greatly affected by global macro - liquidity. If liquidity is loose, tin has strong upward elasticity; if liquidity tightens, the price may decline significantly [17]. - Industrial silicon: Supply and demand are approaching a balanced state, and prices are expected to fluctuate with costs. In the long - term, prices are expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom [20]. - Lithium carbonate: In March, supply and demand are both strong, maintaining a tight balance. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation in the off - season, and the price's upward or downward breakthrough depends on specific factors [23]. Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **Price data**: From March 12 to March 18, the Shanghai copper spot price changed by 25, the scrap - refined copper spread decreased by 466, the SHFE inventory remained unchanged, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 5,665 [1]. - **Market analysis**: This week, copper prices were affected by macro - geopolitics. Overseas, there are concerns about China's consumption ability. In the domestic scrap copper market, the resumption of production of recycling enterprises is slow, and the supply of scrap copper is tight, which may promote the further depletion of refined copper inventory [1]. Aluminum - **Price data**: From March 12 to March 18, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price decreased by 390, the domestic alumina price increased by 16, and the SHFE social inventory remained unchanged [1]. - **Market analysis**: Qatar's aluminum plant suspended production cuts, and logistics in the Middle East has partially recovered. The external market is stronger than the domestic market, but there is a risk of correction in long - position trading [1]. Zinc - **Price data**: From March 16 to March 18, the Shanghai zinc ingot price decreased by 670, the social inventory remained unchanged at 14.61 (unit not specified), and the SHFE exchange inventory remained unchanged [2]. - **Market analysis**: The medium - term supply of zinc ore is expected to be tight. The downstream demand is weak, and the overall inventory has accumulated to over 250,000 tons. However, long - term capital investment is limited, and supply disruptions from Iran are expected to support short - term prices [2]. Nickel - **Price data**: From March 12 to March 18, the price of 1.5 - grade Philippine nickel ore remained at 80.0, the price of Jinchuan spot decreased by 2,000.0, and the price of Russian nickel spot decreased by 2,050 [5]. - **Market analysis**: The short - term fundamental situation is weak, with domestic inventory accumulating and LME inventory slightly decreasing. With many supply - side disturbances and strengthened Indonesian nickel price control policies, nickel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [6]. Stainless Steel - **Price data**: From March 12 to March 18, the price of 304 cold - rolled coil remained unchanged, and the price of 304 hot - rolled coil decreased by 50 [10]. - **Market analysis**: The supply side has a slight decline in production, the demand side is gradually recovering, and the cost has increased. The fundamentals are weak, and it is expected to follow nickel prices and fluctuate within a range [10]. Lead - **Price data**: From March 12 to March 18, the spot premium decreased by 5, the social inventory situation was not clear, and the SHFE inventory remained unchanged [14]. - **Market analysis**: The primary lead production has high profits and high开工, while the terminal demand is weak, and the spot inventory has accumulated, compressing the supply space of recycled lead. Lead prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [14]. Tin - **Price data**: From March 12 to March 18, the spot import gain increased by 1,256.17, the tin position increased by 253, and the LME inventory increased by 220 [17]. - **Market analysis**: Tin prices fluctuated and declined this week. The supply side is in the process of recovery, and the price is greatly affected by global macro - liquidity. The future price trend depends on liquidity conditions [17]. Industrial Silicon - **Price data**: From March 12 to March 18, the 421 Yunnan basis increased by 185.00, and the 421 Sichuan basis increased by 185.00, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 307 [19]. - **Market analysis**: The supply and demand are approaching a balanced state, and prices are expected to fluctuate with costs. In the long - term, prices are expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom [20]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price data**: From March 12 to March 18, the SMM electric carbon price decreased by 2,500.00, the SMM industrial carbon price decreased by 2,000.00, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 696 [23]. - **Market analysis**: In March, supply and demand are both strong, maintaining a tight balance. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation in the off - season, and the price's upward or downward breakthrough depends on specific factors [23].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report maintains a mid - term bullish view on copper, believing it has demand growth and supply constraints. For aluminum, it suggests a strategy of buying on dips in the short - to - medium term. Zinc is expected to have some short - term price support. Nickel and stainless steel are expected to trade in a range. Lead is expected to have a weak and volatile price. Tin's price is highly affected by global macro - liquidity, with strong upward potential in a loose liquidity environment and large downward adjustment space in a tightened one. Industrial silicon prices are expected to fluctuate with costs and in the long - term, cycle at the bottom. Lithium carbonate is in a tight balance in the short - term, with potential for inventory build - up in the off - season [1][2][5][9][12][15][19][22]. 3. Summary by Metal Category Copper - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From March 10 to March 16, the spot price of Shanghai copper had a change of - 25, the waste - refined copper spread decreased by 203, the SHFE inventory remained unchanged, the SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 7935, the spot import profit increased by 674.35, and the three - month import profit increased by 291.43 [1]. - **Market Situation**: This week, copper prices oscillated downward due to macro - geopolitical disturbances. Overseas, there are concerns about China's consumption ability. In the domestic scrap copper market, the resumption of production of recycling enterprises is slower than usual, and the supply of scrap copper is tight, which may drive the further reduction of refined copper inventory. The mid - term outlook for copper is bullish [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From March 10 to March 16, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price decreased by 330, the Yangtze River aluminum ingot price decreased by 330, the Guangdong aluminum ingot price decreased by 300, the domestic alumina price increased by 3, the SHFE social inventory remained unchanged, and the SHFE exchange inventory remained unchanged. The aluminum C - 3M increased by 2.17, the LME inventory decreased by 2475, and the LME cancelled warrants decreased by 1475 [1]. - **Market Situation**: A 600,000 - ton aluminum plant in Qatar suspended production cuts. The logistics in the Middle East has partially recovered, but there is still a risk of capacity impact due to the intensification of the US - Iran conflict. The external market is stronger than the domestic market, but there is a risk of a callback in the long - position trading. It is recommended to buy on dips in the short - to - medium term [1]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From March 12 to March 16, the spot premium changed by 10, the Shanghai zinc ingot price decreased by 280, the Tianjin zinc ingot price decreased by 290, the Guangdong zinc ingot price decreased by 290, the social inventory remained unchanged, and the SHFE exchange inventory remained unchanged. The LME zinc inventory decreased by 400, and the LME cancelled warrants decreased by 300 [2]. - **Market Situation**: The benchmark price for long - term contracts has increased, but the medium - term supply of zinc ore is expected to be tight. The downstream demand is weak, and the overall inventory has accumulated above 250,000 tons. However, limited long - term capital investment and supply disturbances from Iran are expected to support the short - term zinc price [2]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From March 10 to March 16, the price of 1.5 - grade Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged, the Jinchuan spot price decreased by 2650, the Russian nickel spot price decreased by 2700, the Jinchuan premium increased by 50, and the Russian nickel premium remained unchanged. The LME inventory decreased by 744, and the LME cancelled warrants increased by 1098 [5]. - **Market Situation**: The supply of pure nickel decreased in February. The demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the premiums are weak. The domestic inventory is accumulating, and the LME inventory is slightly decreasing. With supply - side policy intervention and weak fundamentals, the nickel price is expected to trade in a range [5]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From March 10 to March 16, the prices of 304 cold - rolled, 304 hot - rolled, 201 cold - rolled, and 430 cold - rolled remained unchanged, and the price of scrap stainless steel decreased by 200 [9]. - **Market Situation**: The steel mill production has slightly decreased. The downstream demand is gradually recovering. The cost has increased, and the inventory has slightly decreased. Affected by supply - side policies and weak fundamentals, it is expected to follow the nickel price and trade in a range [9]. Lead - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From March 10 to March 16, the spot premium changed by - 5, the Shanghai - Henan price difference increased by 25, the Shanghai - Guangdong price difference decreased by 25, the 1 recycled lead price difference decreased by 25, the SHFE inventory remained unchanged. The LME inventory increased by 75, and the LME cancelled warrants increased by 100 [12]. - **Market Situation**: The primary lead production is resuming, and the recycled lead production is expected to resume in mid - March. The terminal demand is weak, and the inventory has accumulated. The lead price is expected to have a weak and volatile trend [12]. Tin - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From March 10 to March 16, the spot import profit decreased by 25632.99, the spot export profit increased by 23971.97, the tin position decreased by 2446, the LME C - 3M decreased by 47, the LME inventory decreased by 60, and the LME cancelled warrants increased by 65 [15]. - **Market Situation**: This week, the tin price oscillated downward. The supply is expected to recover, but there are supply - side risks. The demand for restocking is strong after the price decline, and both domestic and overseas inventories have increased. The tin price is highly affected by global macro - liquidity [15]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From March 10 to March 16, the 421 Yunnan basis, 421 Sichuan basis, 553 East China basis, and 553 Tianjin basis remained unchanged, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [18]. - **Market Situation**: Large factories have resumed production, and the supply and demand are approaching a balanced state. The price is expected to fluctuate with costs. In the long - term, the price is expected to cycle at the bottom due to over - capacity [19]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From March 10 to March 16, the SMM electric carbon price decreased by 2500, the SMM industrial carbon price decreased by 2500, the basis of the main contract decreased by 2500, the basis of the near - month contract decreased by 2500, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 10 [22]. - **Market Situation**: In March, the supply and demand are both strong, maintaining a tight balance. There is an expectation of inventory build - up in the off - season. The upward price space needs futures - spot resonance or unexpected supply disturbances, and the downward breakthrough requires a collapse in demand or unexpected resumption of production by CATL [22].

Core Viewpoint - Since early March, the geopolitical conflict in Iran has led to a significant increase in crude oil and chemical sectors, driven by rising energy costs and supply disruptions [3][7][34]. Group 1: Geopolitical Impact - The first round of impact comes from direct disruptions in Middle Eastern exports, while the second round involves increased shipping costs due to interruptions in Asian crude oil supply, affecting refinery loads across Asia [3][7][34]. - The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for 43.5% of China's crude oil imports, poses a substantial risk to domestic oil and refinery supply [8][7]. - The supply impact varies by chemical product, with methanol and polyethylene being notably affected, while the overall supply reduction is estimated to exceed 15% for certain chemicals [7][12][34]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The core influencing factor remains the contraction of supply, with a need to assess demand elasticity and potential delivery dynamics [3][12][34]. - Current estimates suggest that the reduction in Middle Eastern capacity and a 10% decrease in Asian refinery loads could significantly impact domestic supply levels [13][34]. - The demand elasticity for certain chemicals, such as pure benzene and styrene, remains high due to their downstream applications in high-value goods, which exhibit a greater tolerance for price increases [22][31][34]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The recommendation is to go long on pure benzene, styrene, PX, PTA, and ethylene glycol, with a focus on cost areas based on SC pricing [4][35]. - PX and PTA are highlighted as having greater rebound potential, while ethylene glycol's elasticity will depend on the evolution of supply issues [4][35]. - The overall assessment indicates that pure benzene, styrene, and PX have significant rebound potential, while ethylene glycol and chlor-alkali products are currently undervalued and may experience price corrections [32][34].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report maintains a bullish outlook on copper in the medium - term, despite recent price declines due to inventory pressure and potential geopolitical conflicts. Copper is considered a metal with increasing demand and limited supply [1]. - Aluminum prices may rise in the short - term due to production disruptions in the Middle East. There is still a driving force for the long - short spread between the domestic and foreign markets [1]. - Zinc prices are expected to be supported in the short - term, although the domestic fundamentals are average, due to limited long - term capital investment and supply disruptions from Iran [2]. - Nickel prices are expected to trade in a range, influenced by bearish fundamentals and bullish supply - side policy interventions [4]. - Stainless steel prices are expected to follow nickel prices and trade in a range, with a weak fundamental situation and supply - side policy interventions [8]. - Lead prices are expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend, affected by overseas inventory and recycled lead profit support [11]. - Tin prices are highly affected by global macro - liquidity. If liquidity is loose, tin has strong upward potential; if liquidity tightens, tin prices may be suppressed [14]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to fluctuate with costs in the short - term and bottom - oscillate in the long - term due to over - capacity [17]. - Lithium carbonate prices are in a tight balance in March, with potential inventory accumulation in May and June. The upward breakthrough requires futures - spot resonance or unexpected supply disruptions, while the downward breakthrough requires a collapse in demand or unexpected resumption of production by CATL [19]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory**: Copper prices fluctuated downward this week. LME inventory expectations are high, and the North American delivery action is ongoing. The domestic refined - scrap copper spread has narrowed, and the substitution demand for electrolytic copper by scrap copper has increased [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: Downstream demand has gradually recovered after the Spring Festival, but the recovery of domestic recycled copper processing enterprises is slower than in previous years. The supply of scrap copper is tight, which may promote the further reduction of refined copper inventory [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory**: Aluminum prices may rise in the short - term due to production disruptions in the Middle East. The overseas supply is tightened, and the external market is stronger than the domestic market. The domestic bonded area inventory is at a low level [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: The production of aluminum plants in Qatar and Bahrain has been affected. The supply in the Middle East is disrupted, and the external supply is tightened [1]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory**: Zinc prices have slightly declined. The domestic inventory has accumulated to over 250,000 tons [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of zinc mines is expected to be tight in the medium - term. The import window has not opened. The downstream demand has gradually recovered after the Lantern Festival, but the orders are weak [2]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory**: Nickel prices have fluctuated. The domestic inventory has continued to increase, and the LME inventory has slightly increased [3][4]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of pure nickel in February decreased. The demand is mainly for rigid needs. The supply of nickel mines is expected to be tight throughout the year due to policy interventions in Indonesia [4]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory**: Stainless steel prices have remained stable. The inventory has seasonally increased this week [8]. - **Supply and Demand**: The steel mill production has slightly decreased. The downstream demand is gradually recovering. The cost of nickel iron has slightly increased, and the cost of chrome iron has remained stable [8]. Lead - **Price and Inventory**: Lead prices have maintained a weak and volatile trend. The domestic inventory has increased [10][11]. - **Supply and Demand**: The production of primary lead has recovered, and the production of recycled lead is expected to resume in mid - March. The terminal demand is weak [10][11]. Tin - **Price and Inventory**: Tin prices have significantly declined this week. The domestic inventory has decreased, and the LME inventory has fluctuated [14]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of tin in Wabang is expected to accelerate in the second quarter. The domestic processing fee has a slight upward trend, but the production of tin ingots in March may be reduced more than expected. The demand for replenishment is strong after the price decline [14]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory**: The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate with costs. The inventory has not changed significantly [17]. - **Supply and Demand**: Some large factories have resumed production. The supply and demand are close to a balanced state. In the long - term, the over - capacity is still high [17]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory**: Lithium carbonate prices have increased. The inventory has slightly increased [19]. - **Supply and Demand**: In March, the supply and demand are both strong, maintaining a tight balance. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation in May and June [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The basic metals are experiencing wide - range oscillations due to the concerns about supply disruptions and the rise of the US dollar. There is strong support from the supply side, but the terminal demand is weak. In the short - term, the market is cautious, but energy price increases and potential supply disruption risks still support the basic metals. One can cautiously participate in short - long opportunities for aluminum and copper, and then focus on short - long opportunities for copper, aluminum, tin, and nickel after inventory depletion. In the medium - term, the risks of the Fed's independence and supply disruptions remain, and varieties such as copper, aluminum, tin, and nickel are expected to maintain a volatile and upward - biased trend [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Copper - **View**: The US dollar index rebounds, and copper prices oscillate at a high level. - **Information Analysis**: On March 3, the spot price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper reported a premium of - 190 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 20 yuan/ton; the spot TC of 25% copper concentrate was - 56 dollars/dry ton, a month - on - month decrease of 4.94 dollars/dry ton; the Middle East situation heated up, and Israel announced an attack on Iran [5]. - **Main Logic**: Macroscopically, the rebound of the US dollar index briefly pressured non - ferrous metal prices. In terms of supply and demand, the supply disruptions of copper mines continue to increase, the spot TC of copper concentrates is at a low level and has declined significantly recently, and the supply of copper mines remains tight. In smelting, the long - term processing fee for copper mines in 2026 reached a record low, which further strengthened the expectation of a contraction in the refined copper supply. On the demand side, as the off - season approaches, the terminal demand remains weak, and the social inventory of refined copper is generally high, which restricts the upward space of copper prices. - **Outlook**: The supply constraints of copper still exist, and the short - term geopolitical situation has increased the risk of supply disruptions. Copper prices are expected to show a volatile and upward - biased trend [5]. Alumina - **View**: The expectation of production cuts competes with the reality of oversupply, and alumina prices oscillate. - **Information Analysis**: On March 3, the national weighted index of alumina spot was 2,672.6 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 12.7 yuan/ton; the alumina warehouse receipts were 326,638 tons, unchanged from the previous month [6]. - **Main Logic**: Recently, macro - sentiment has amplified the fluctuations in the market. Fundamentally, as the quotation cycle changes, the current average spot price has dropped significantly compared to the end of last year. Inland high - cost production capacity is facing losses, and the expectation of supply contraction has intensified. However, in reality, the supply contraction is still insufficient, and there is a strong inventory accumulation trend in China. The prices of raw materials such as bauxite and caustic soda are also weak, and the downward shift in costs is weakening the support for alumina prices. - **Outlook**: The actual supply and demand are in a state of oversupply, but the expectation of production cuts has intensified, so alumina is expected to maintain an oscillating trend [6]. Aluminum - **View**: Geopolitical conflicts have increased supply concerns, and aluminum prices oscillate. - **Information Analysis**: On March 3, the domestic average spot price of electrolytic aluminum was 23,928 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 309 yuan/ton; the spot premium was - 160 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 10 yuan/ton. On March 2, the inventory of aluminum ingots in the main domestic consumption areas was 1.246 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 70,000 tons; the inventory of aluminum rods was 405,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons. On March 3, the electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 316,153 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21,365 tons [7]. - **Main Logic**: Macroscopically, the US economic data continues to show a structural divergence, and the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has further escalated, but the macro - expectation is expected to remain positive in the future. On the supply side, the domestic built - in production capacity remains stable, and the smelting profit is at a high level; in Indonesia, due to power and other constraints, there are still constraints on the medium - term supply increase. On the demand side, the weekly initial operating rate has slightly recovered, but the inhibitory effect of high prices on demand still exists, and the spot remains at a discount. In terms of inventory, the weekly social inventory continues to accumulate, and the proportion of molten aluminum is expected to decrease. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, the repeated capital sentiment and the unchanged expectation of tightening supply and demand are expected to keep aluminum prices oscillating and upward - biased. In the medium - term, the new domestic production capacity is limited, the overseas production is restricted by power and other rigid factors, the demand maintains a resilient growth, the supply and demand will turn to a shortage, and the center of aluminum prices is expected to continue to move up [8]. Aluminum Alloy - **View**: The cost support continues, and the price oscillates. - **Information Analysis**: On March 3, the price of ADC12 was 23,700 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 300 yuan/ton. On March 3, the registered warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 62,228 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 875 tons [10][11]. - **Main Logic**: On the cost side, the price of scrap aluminum follows the price of aluminum ingots, the quotation center remains high, and the tight supply situation is difficult to change in the short - term, so the cost support is strong. On the supply side, the operating rate remains at a low level, and the medium - term tax - refund policy and tax transfer may still restrict the supply. On the demand side, the policy of trading in old cars for new ones continues, but the subsidy intensity has declined. In the short - term, high prices suppress downstream demand, and it is still mainly based on rigid demand for low - price replenishment. In terms of inventory, the weekly social inventory has accumulated. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, the cost support still exists, and the supply and demand remain stable, so the price is expected to continue to oscillate and be upward - biased. In the medium - term, the cost support logic is strengthened, there is a risk of production reduction or suspension on the supply side due to the cancellation of policies, and the supply and demand maintain a tight balance, so the price is expected to maintain an oscillating and upward - biased trend [11]. Zinc - **View**: The US dollar index rebounds, and zinc prices oscillate at a high level. - **Information Analysis**: On March 3, the premium of Shanghai 0 zinc to the main contract was - 50 yuan/ton, that of Guangdong 0 zinc to the main contract was - 120 yuan/ton, and that of Tianjin 0 zinc to the main contract was - 50 yuan/ton. As of March 3, the total inventory of zinc ingots in six places was 211,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 31,600 tons [12]. - **Main Logic**: Macroscopically, the Middle East situation has heated up, and the supply of zinc may be affected by geopolitical disturbances. On the supply side, the decline of zinc ore processing fees has slowed down, the profit of smelters has not improved significantly, but the import volume of zinc ore has increased marginally, and the output of zinc ingots has continued to rise. The export of previously locked - price zinc ingots has ended one after another, and the supply pressure of domestic zinc ingots has increased. On the demand side, domestic consumption is gradually entering the peak season, but the new orders from terminals are limited, and the overall demand expectation is average. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, the supply pressure of zinc ingots has increased, but the macro - sentiment has improved, and zinc prices may continue to oscillate at a high level. In the long - term, the supply of zinc ingots will still increase, while the demand increment is small, and zinc prices are expected to decline [12]. Lead - **View**: Geopolitical conflicts have disturbed, and lead prices oscillate. - **Information Analysis**: On March 3, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9,950 yuan/ton, the price difference between primary and recycled lead was 75 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 25 yuan/ton. The price of 1 lead ingots was 16,575 - 16,675 yuan/ton, with an average price of 16,625 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 50 yuan/ton, and the spot premium of Henan lead ingots was - 185 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous month. On March 2, the social inventory of lead ingots in the main domestic markets was 67,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,900 tons; the latest warehouse receipts of Shanghai lead were 54,888 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 41 tons [13]. - **Main Logic**: In the spot market, the spot premium remains stable, the price difference between primary and recycled lead has increased slightly, and the futures warehouse receipts have decreased slightly. On the supply side, the price of waste batteries remains stable, the lead price has risen, the smelting profit of recycled lead has increased slightly, the smelters are still in the process of resuming production, and the weekly output of lead ingots remains stable. On the demand side, at the initial stage of the implementation of the new national standard for electric bicycles, consumers are more cautious, and the orders for electric bicycles have slightly declined. However, as it gradually enters the traditional consumption peak season, the operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises will gradually increase. - **Outlook**: The operating rates of primary and recycled lead smelters are still high, and the output of lead ingots remains at a high level. After the Spring Festival, the operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises may gradually increase, but the weak terminal demand pattern remains unchanged, and the lead ingot inventory may still accumulate. However, the cost of waste batteries remains high, so lead prices are expected to oscillate [13][15]. Nickel - **View**: The non - ferrous metal sector has corrected, and nickel prices have declined. - **Information Analysis**: On March 3, the Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 53,649 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 72 tons; the LME nickel inventory was 287,976 tons, unchanged from the previous month. The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources estimated that the nickel production in 2026 would be about 209 million tons, nearly 20% lower than the planned 260 - 270 million tons in the Work Plan and Budget (RKAB). The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association said that the revision of the RKAB was expected to be approved in July, and the revised RKAB was expected to increase the nickel production quota by up to 30% this year. On March 3, the price of high - nickel iron in the Chinese market was 1,080 - 1,095 yuan/nickel (including tax at the factory), unchanged from the previous day [15]. - **Main Logic**: On the supply side, the domestic electrolytic nickel production increased again in January, and the overall output of MIHP and ferronickel in Indonesia in January remained at a high level. The overall supply pressure of nickel still exists, and the overall fundamentals remain in a state of oversupply. The subsequent focus is on the realization of peak - season demand. In terms of policy disturbances, Indonesia has lowered the nickel ore quota for 2026 and plans to revise the domestic trade pricing method for nickel ore, which has significantly adjusted the market's expectations for nickel costs and balance. The subsequent changes in Indonesian policies need to be continuously tracked. - **Outlook**: The current fundamentals of nickel have not shown obvious marginal improvement, the overall supply and demand in February are still relatively loose, and the LME inventory remains at a high level, which puts some pressure on prices. It is necessary to observe the strength of peak - season demand. At the same time, Indonesia's lowering of the 2026 nickel ore quota has significantly adjusted the market's expectations for nickel balance, which provides some support for nickel prices. Nickel prices are expected to show a volatile and upward - biased trend, and the progress of relevant Indonesian policies needs to be continuously followed [15][16]. Stainless Steel - **View**: Nickel prices have corrected, and the stainless - steel market has oscillated and declined. - **Information Analysis**: On March 3, the inventory of stainless - steel futures warehouse receipts was 51,591 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 594 tons. In the spot market, on March 3, the premium of Foshan Hongwang 304 spot to the stainless - steel main contract was 215 yuan/ton. On March 3, the price of high - nickel iron in the Chinese market was 1,080 - 1,095 yuan/nickel (including tax at the factory), unchanged from the previous day [17]. - **Main Logic**: The price of nickel iron is relatively strong, and the chromium end is stable. There is still some support on the cost side of stainless steel. Due to the impact of the Spring Festival holiday in February, the production schedule is expected to decline significantly month - on - month, but in March, the production schedule is expected to increase both year - on - year and month - on - month. The terminal demand remains relatively cautious, and the subsequent focus is on the realization of the peak season. In terms of inventory, the current social inventory has accumulated to a certain extent, and the warehouse receipts have also increased marginally. - **Outlook**: Due to the impact of the Spring Festival holiday in February, the production schedule is expected to decline significantly month - on - month, but in March, the production schedule is expected to increase both year - on - year and month - on - month. The terminal demand is relatively cautious, and it is necessary to observe the strength of the subsequent peak - season realization. The current fundamentals put some pressure on prices. However, considering that the profits of the industrial chain have been suppressed for a long time and there is also support from the ore end, stainless - steel prices are expected to show a volatile and upward - biased trend, and the progress of relevant Indonesian policies needs to be continuously followed [17]. Tin - **View**: The supply expectation in the main production areas is loosening, and tin prices have significantly corrected. - **Information Analysis**: On March 3, the LME tin warehouse receipts decreased by 80 tons month - on - month to 7,470 tons; the Shanghai tin warehouse receipts decreased by 215 tons month - on - month to 11,316 tons; the Shanghai tin positions decreased by 16,517 lots month - on - month to 91,367 lots. In the spot market, on March 3, the average price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 tin ingots was 412,850 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 21,250 yuan/ton [19]. - **Main Logic**: The supply expectation in the main tin production areas is loosening, and combined with the weakening of market sentiment, tin prices have corrected. Wa State is accelerating the resumption of production in high - grade tin mines in low - altitude areas, and it is expected that the ore output in Wa State will gradually increase. In Indonesia, according to the Indonesian Mining Association, the Indonesian Mineral and Coal General Administration has set the tin production target for 2026 at 65,860 tons, higher than the previously expected quota of 60,000 tons, and the supply expectation has turned loose. The situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is still severe, and the supply risk remains high. In the future, on the supply side, the mine end continues to be tight, the processing fee for tin concentrates remains at a low level, and it is difficult to increase the output of refined tin. On the demand side, the semiconductor industry maintains high growth, the consumption in areas such as new energy vehicles continues to rise, and considering the need to rebuild the industrial chain inventory, the demand for tin ingots will continue to grow. - **Outlook**: The supply risk is high, and in the long - term, tin prices are expected to show a volatile and upward - biased trend [19]. 4. Market Index Monitoring - **Comprehensive Index and Special Index**: On March 3, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities showed that the commodity index was 2,482.90, an increase of 1.00%; the commodity 20 index was 2,847.65, an increase of 0.83%; the industrial products index was 2,364.70, an increase of 1.43% [144]. - **Sector Index**: On March 3, 2026, the non - ferrous metal index was 2,717.21, with a daily decline of 0.58%, a 5 - day increase of 0.26%, a 1 - month decline of 3.99%, and an increase of 1.16% since the beginning of the year [146].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no specific industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran has increased concerns about supply disruptions, and base metals are expected to oscillate and strengthen in the short - term. There are short - term long opportunities for copper, aluminum, tin, and nickel. In the medium - term, due to the risk of the Fed's independence and supply disruptions, these metals are likely to maintain an oscillating and strengthening trend [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - **View**: Geopolitical conflicts intensify, and copper prices operate at a high level. The supply constraint of copper still exists, and the short - term geopolitical situation increases the risk of supply disruptions. Copper prices are expected to be oscillating and strengthening [6]. - **Analysis**: On March 2, the spot premium of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper was - 210 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 80 yuan/ton; the spot TC of 25% copper concentrate was - 51.06 US dollars/dry ton, with no month - on - month change. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has heated up, and copper supply may be affected, supporting copper prices. The supply of copper mines is tight, and the smelting profit of refined copper is falling, with an expected contraction in supply. The terminal demand is weak, and the social inventory of refined copper is high, which limits the upward space of copper prices [6]. 3.1.2 Alumina - **View**: The expectation of production cuts competes with the reality of oversupply, and alumina prices oscillate. The current supply and demand are in excess, but the expectation of production cuts is intensifying, so alumina is expected to maintain an oscillating trend [7]. - **Analysis**: On March 2, the national weighted index of alumina spot was 2659.9 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change; the alumina warehouse receipt was 326,638 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15,980 tons. The current spot average price has dropped significantly compared with the end of last year, and high - cost inland production capacity is facing losses, with an increasing expectation of supply contraction. However, the supply contraction is still insufficient, and the domestic inventory accumulation trend is strong. The prices of raw materials such as bauxite and caustic soda are also weak, weakening the support for alumina prices [7]. 3.1.3 Aluminum - **View**: Geopolitical conflicts increase supply concerns, and aluminum prices oscillate upwards. In the short - term, due to the repeated capital sentiment and the expected tightening of supply and demand, aluminum prices are expected to maintain an oscillating and strengthening trend. In the medium - term, the supply is constrained, the demand has resilient growth, and the supply - demand relationship turns to shortage, with the center of aluminum prices expected to rise [8][10]. - **Analysis**: On March 2, the domestic spot average price of electrolytic aluminum was 23,619 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 200 yuan/ton; the spot premium was - 170 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change. The national mainstream consumer area aluminum ingot inventory was 1.246 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 70,000 tons; the aluminum rod inventory was 405,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipt was 294,788 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5,490 tons. The US economic data is structurally differentiated, and the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has further escalated, but the macro - expectation is expected to remain positive. The domestic production capacity is stable, and the smelting profit is high. The supply in Indonesia is constrained. The weekly initial - stage operating rate has slightly recovered, but high prices still suppress demand, and the inventory is still accumulating [8]. 3.1.4 Aluminum Alloy - **View**: Cost support continues, and prices oscillate upwards. In the short - term, due to strong cost support, prices are expected to maintain an oscillating and strengthening trend. In the medium - term, the cost support logic is strengthened, and there is a risk of production cuts in the supply end, with the supply - demand relationship maintaining a tight balance [12]. - **Analysis**: On March 2, the price of ADC12 was 23,400 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 200 yuan/ton. The price of scrap aluminum follows the price of aluminum ingots, and the supply is tight, providing strong cost support. The operating rate is at a low level, and the policy may still restrict supply. The automobile trade - in policy continues, but the subsidy intensity has decreased, and high prices suppress downstream demand. The weekly social inventory has accumulated [12]. 3.1.5 Zinc - **View**: Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East cause zinc prices to oscillate at a high level. In the short - term, the supply pressure of zinc ingots has increased, but the macro - sentiment has improved, and zinc prices may continue to oscillate at a high level. In the long - term, zinc supply is expected to increase, while demand growth is limited, and zinc prices may decline [13]. - **Analysis**: On March 2, the premium of Shanghai 0 zinc to the main contract was - 10 yuan/ton, that of Guangdong 0 zinc was - 130 yuan/ton, and that of Tianjin 0 zinc was - 50 yuan/ton. As of March 2, the total inventory of zinc ingots in six places was 211,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 31,600 tons. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has heated up, which may affect zinc supply and support zinc prices. The decline of zinc ore processing fees has slowed down, and the smelter's profit has not improved significantly, but the import of zinc ore has increased marginally, and the output of zinc ingots has continued to rise. The domestic consumption is gradually entering the peak season, but the new orders from the terminal are limited, and the overall demand expectation is average [13]. 3.1.6 Lead - **View**: Geopolitical conflicts cause lead prices to oscillate. The production of lead ingots remains high, and the operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises may gradually recover after the Spring Festival, but the terminal demand is weak, and the lead ingot inventory may still accumulate. Due to the high cost of waste batteries, lead prices are expected to oscillate [15]. - **Analysis**: On March 2, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9,950 yuan/ton, and the price difference between primary and recycled lead was 50 yuan/ton. The price of 1 lead ingot was 16,525 - 16,625 yuan/ton, with an average price of 16,575 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change. The social inventory of lead ingots in the main domestic markets was 67,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,900 tons; the latest warehouse receipt of Shanghai lead was 54,929 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,888 tons. The spot premium is stable, the price difference between primary and recycled lead is stable, and the futures warehouse receipt has decreased. The price of waste batteries is stable, the lead price is stable, the smelting profit of recycled lead is stable, and the smelter is still in the process of resuming production. The demand for electric bicycles is weak, but it is gradually entering the peak consumption season, and the operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises will gradually recover [14][15]. 3.1.7 Nickel - **View**: High inventory suppresses the market, and the price oscillates and strengthens. The current fundamental situation of nickel has not improved significantly, and the supply - demand relationship is expected to be loose in February. The high LME inventory suppresses prices, but the downward revision of Indonesia's nickel ore quota in 2026 supports nickel prices [16]. - **Analysis**: On March 2, the Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt was 53,721 tons, a month - on - month increase of 590 tons; the LME nickel inventory was 287,976 tons, with no month - on - month change. The approved nickel ore production quota in Indonesia is between 260 million tons and 270 million tons. The price of high - nickel iron in the Chinese market was 1,080 - 1,095 yuan/nickel (including tax at the factory), with no change compared with the 28th. The domestic production of electrolytic nickel in January increased month - on - month, and the production of MIHP and ferronickel in Indonesia in January remained high. The overall supply pressure of nickel still exists, and the fundamental situation is in excess. Indonesia has revised down the nickel ore quota in 2026 and plans to revise the domestic trade pricing method of nickel ore, which has significantly adjusted the market's expectation of nickel cost and balance [15][16]. 3.1.8 Stainless Steel - **View**: The price of nickel iron is strong, and the stainless - steel market oscillates upwards. In January, the production schedule increased slightly month - on - month due to profit repair, but it is expected to decline significantly in February due to the Spring Festival. The downstream demand is weak in the traditional off - season, but considering the long - term suppression of industrial chain profits and the support from the ore end, stainless - steel prices are expected to oscillate and strengthen [17]. - **Analysis**: On March 2, the stainless - steel futures warehouse receipt inventory was 52,185 tons, a month - on - month increase of 70 tons. The spot price of Foshan Hongwang 304 was 15 yuan/ton relative to the stainless - steel main contract. The price of high - nickel iron in the Chinese market was 1,080 - 1,095 yuan/nickel (including tax at the factory), with no change compared with the 28th. The price of nickel iron is strong, and the chromium end is stable, providing some support for the cost of stainless steel. The production schedule in January increased slightly month - on - month due to profit repair, but it is expected to decline significantly in February due to the Spring Festival. The terminal demand is still cautious, and the social inventory has accumulated, and the warehouse receipt has also increased marginally [17]. 3.1.9 Tin - **View**: Supply concerns still exist, and tin prices have strong support. In the long - term, due to high supply risks, tin prices are expected to oscillate and strengthen [19]. - **Analysis**: On March 2, the LME tin warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 25 tons to 7,550 tons; the Shanghai tin warehouse receipt inventory increased by 113 tons to 11,531 tons; the Shanghai tin position increased by 23,491 lots to 113,075 lots. The average price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 tin ingot was 434,100 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 4,000 yuan/ton. The armed conflict in Myanmar has raised market concerns, although it did not occur in the main tin - producing area of Wa State and will not significantly affect tin production for the time being. Indonesia's short - term supply is restricted due to RKAB approval. The situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is still severe, increasing supply concerns. The supply of tin mines is tightening, the processing fee of tin concentrates is at a low level, and the output of refined tin is difficult to increase. The semiconductor industry is growing rapidly, and the consumption in new energy vehicles and other fields continues to rise, and the demand for tin ingots will continue to grow [19]. 3.2行情监测 - **Commodity Index**: On March 2, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITICS Futures commodity index showed that the commodity index, the commodity 20 index, and the industrial product index were 2458.25 (+1.60%), 2824.14 (+1.76%), and 2331.34 (+1.48%) respectively. The non - ferrous metal index was 2732.94, with a daily increase of 0.89%, a 5 - day increase of 1.38%, a 1 - month decrease of 3.37%, and a year - to - date increase of 1.75% [146][148].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The U.S.-Iran conflict has significant impacts on various sectors, with prices in energy, precious metals, chemicals, and container shipping likely to be affected [8][9]. - The development of the conflict has three scenarios, each with different impacts on the market [8][27]. - Different sectors will respond differently to the conflict, with some being more directly affected and others being more indirectly affected [9][10][11]. 3. Summary by Directory Event Development Progress - On February 28 local time, the U.S. and Israel launched airstrikes against Iran, and Iran retaliated by targeting U.S. military bases in the Middle East. Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei was reported killed in an attack on the same morning [21][23][59]. - As of March 1, most vessels around the Strait of Hormuz remained congested and awaiting passage [22][59]. - Three scenarios for subsequent event development are envisioned: symbolic Iranian retaliation and rapid regime transition; stable Iranian regime and intensified retaliation; prolonged but contained conflict [27][62]. Crude Oil - Crude prices have been supported by U.S.-Iran tensions since January, and after the February 28 military escalation, the market will test whether geopolitical risks translate into actual supply disruptions [9][31][63]. - If conflicts remain limited to military targets and end quickly, Brent crude is expected to trade between $70–$78/bbl before retreating. If production or transport is impacted, short-term price elasticity will increase [9][31][63]. - China's domestic crude futures may see additional support from rising tanker costs and increased demand for alternative crudes, widening the spread between domestic and international benchmarks [9][31][63]. Chemicals - Chemicals like methanol, MEG, fuel oil, and LPG may rise short-term due to geopolitical, cost, and transport concerns, but major facilities in the region remain largely undamaged [10][50]. - Continued attention is needed on conflict duration and strait accessibility [10][50]. Natural Gas - The impact of the Iran situation on the global natural gas market depends primarily on traffic through the Strait of Hormuz [11][38][69]. - A phased slowdown in trade flows following a conflict escalation would provide bullish support to gas prices in Europe and Asia. If a sustained and significant drop in Middle Eastern LNG exports emerges later, it would further stimulate price increases in Eurasian gas markets [11][38][69]. Precious Metals - Precious metals may benefit from rising safe-haven demand in the short term, but the sustainability of rallies depends on the severity and longevity of geopolitical tensions [12][39][70]. - Gold and silver prices could challenge recent highs in March [13][40][70]. Container Shipping - Freight rates on Middle Eastern container routes have already increased, and war surcharges are a key focus. Other routes may follow [14][41][71]. - The Middle East accounts for ~5% of global container volume, with ~3% transiting the Strait of Hormuz [14][41][71]. - The April contract highs could reach 1,450–1,500 points [14][41][72]. Non-Ferrous Metals - The U.S.-Iran military conflict is likely to intensify concerns over potential supply shocks in the near term, providing upward impetus to base metal prices [15][42][73]. - In the medium term, base metals are expected to continue to exhibit a volatile but bullish trend [15][42][73]. Ferrous Metals - The impact of the U.S.-Iran conflict on ferrous metals is primarily sentiment-driven, with minimal direct supply or cost transmission [16][44][74]. - Higher oil prices may raise seaborne iron ore transport costs, but with a lag [16][44][74]. Agriculture - The U.S.-Iran conflict affects the agriculture sector mainly through oil price volatility, with synthetic rubber being the most sensitive [17][45][75]. - Traditional crops may see mild gains from higher fertilizer costs, but historical data shows low sensitivity in agricultural markets [18][45][75]. U.S. Treasuries - A prolonged conflict could erode the safe-haven appeal of U.S. assets [19][46][76]. - Treasury yields are more tied to domestic fundamentals than geopolitics [19][46][76]. Chinese Government Bonds - Risk-off sentiment may support bond markets, but policy uncertainty looms [20][48][78]. - Short-term, bonds may see upward momentum, but pre-meeting policy speculation could lead to range-bound trading. Medium-term, potential RRR/cut cuts may support a bullish bias [20][48][78].