投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2026-01-09 市场乐观情绪快速降温，基本金属大幅 调整 有⾊观点：市场乐观情绪快速降温，基本⾦属⼤幅调整 交易逻辑：美联储独立性受损及弱美元预期仍在发酵；12月10-11日中央 经济工作会议召开，定调较为积极，继续"国补"，12月31日财政部确认 26年第一批625亿元两新补贴资金拨付；元旦期间，美国打击委内瑞拉， 整体上看，宏观面预期有反复，但较为稳定。原料端延续偏紧局面，铜陵 有色公告米拉多铜矿二期延期；冶炼端仍有扰动预期，整体供应端支撑较 强。终端，伴随着两新支持资金到位，家电、汽车和消费电子等终端消费 或有望改善，远期供需仍有收紧预期，现实略偏弱。整体来看，中短期， 现实需求偏弱，周四印尼能源与矿产资源部长未能就镍矿配额释放正面消 息引发镍价大跌，基本金属乐观情绪快速降温，但弱美元预期+供应扰动 担忧逻辑没变，可继续关注铜铝锡低吸做多机会；长期，国内潜在增量刺 激政策预期仍在，并且铜铝锡供应扰动问题仍在，供需仍有趋紧预期，看 好铜铝锡价格走势。 铜观点：市场情绪降温，铜价⾼位调整。 氧化铝观点：基本⾯偏弱，氧化铝价再 ...

中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2026-01-08 供应扰动忧虑继续，基本金属维持强势 有⾊观点：供应扰动忧虑继续，基本⾦属维持强势 交易逻辑：美联储独立性受损及弱美元预期仍在发酵；12月10-11日中央 经济工作会议召开，定调较为积极，继续"国补"，12月31日财政部确认 26年第一批625亿元两新补贴资金拨付；元旦期间，美国打击委内瑞拉， 整体上看，宏观面预期有反复，但稳定。原料端延续偏紧局面，铜陵有色 公告米拉多铜矿二期延期；冶炼端仍有扰动预期，整体供应端支撑较强。 初端开工环比继续走弱；终端，伴随着两新支持资金到位，家电、汽车和 消费电子等终端消费或有望改善，远期供需仍有收紧预期。整体来看，中 短期，弱美元预期+供应扰动担忧逻辑没变，现实弱需求影响有限，供应 扰动担忧继续推高基本金属，继续关注铜铝锡低吸做多机会；长期，国内 潜在增量刺激政策预期仍在，并且铜铝锡供应扰动问题仍在，供需仍有趋 紧预期，看好铜铝锡价格走势。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 ⻛险提⽰：供应扰动；国内政策刺激超预期；美联储鸽派不及预期； 国内需求复苏不及预期；经济衰退。 有⾊与新材料团队 研究员： 郑非凡 从业资 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2026-01-06 供应扰动忧虑继续，基本金属大幅走高 有⾊观点：供应扰动忧虑继续，基本⾦属⼤幅⾛⾼ 交易逻辑：美联储独立性受损及弱美元预期仍在发酵；12月10-11日中央 经济工作会议召开，定调较为积极，继续"国补"，12月31日财政部确认 26年第一批625亿元两新补贴资金拨付；元旦期间，美国打击委内瑞拉， 整体上看，宏观面预期有反复，但稳定。原料端延续偏紧局面，铜陵有色 公告米拉多铜矿二期延期；冶炼端仍有扰动预期，整体供应端支撑较强。 初端开工环比继续走弱；终端，伴随着两新支持资金到位，家电、汽车和 消费电子等终端消费或有望改善，远期供需仍有收紧预期。整体来看，中 短期，弱美元预期+供应扰动担忧逻辑没变，现实弱需求影响有限，供应 扰动担忧继续推高基本金属，继续关注铜铝锡低吸做多机会；长期，国内 潜在增量刺激政策预期仍在，并且铜铝锡供应扰动问题仍在，供需仍有趋 紧预期，看好铜铝锡价格走势。 铜观点：供应收缩预期较强，铜价延续⾼位运⾏。 氧化铝观点：成本⽀撑有效性较弱，氧化铝价仍旧承压。 铝观点：资⾦情绪乐观，铝价⼤幅上⾏。 铝 ...

2026年首个交易日，有色金属板块在地缘冲突与供应扰动的双重刺激下全线冲高，但内部强弱分化显 著。一边是铜、铝及贵金属在避险情绪与供需偏紧格局下强势领涨，另一边铅价虽被动跟涨，据长江有 色金属网获悉，今日长江现货市场1#铅跟风突发反弹，均价涨125元/吨至17425元/吨，但现货成交寡 淡、贴水扩大的细节暴露反弹"虚火"，在累库压力与需求疲软的基本面制约下，震荡偏弱格局难改。 铅价虽实现125元/吨的日度反弹，但其驱动力主要来自板块情绪传导与期货盘面拉动，而非自身基本面 改善。现货市场成交清淡、贴水扩大，反映出下游接受度有限。更为关键的是，节后累库压力显著，原 生铅库存周增幅超100%，而铅蓄电池等行业仍处淡季，新能源领域需求尚未形成有效替代，供需结构 对价格构成持续压制。 总结： 一、板块普涨背后的双引擎：地缘风险与供应约束 2026年有色金属市场开局即呈现"整体有热度，内部有冷热"的特征。在把握铜铝等强势品种机会的同 时，也需理性辨别如铅等品种基本面与价格走势的背离，避免盲目跟风。后续应重点关注地缘局势演 进、主要产区供应恢复情况以及国内节后需求复苏节奏。 美国在委内瑞拉等地的地缘动作推升了全球资源供应的 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2025-12-31 节前资金谨慎，基本金属宽幅震荡 有⾊观点：节前资⾦谨慎，基本⾦属宽幅震荡 交易逻辑：11月美国CPI低于市场预期提振降息预期，美联储新一任候选 人还处于遴选中，不过这并不影响美联储独立性受损及弱美元发酵；12月 10-11日中央经济工作会议召开，定调较为积极，继续"国补"，国内消 费预期有望改善，整体上看，宏观面偏正面。原料端延续偏紧局面，并逐 步往冶炼端传导，供应端收缩风险仍然存在。终端略偏弱，12月汽车销售 延续放缓，12月空调排产降幅扩大，2026年1-2月排产预计改善，基本金 属现实供需偏宽松，但预期偏紧。整体来看，中短期，节前资金谨慎，基 本金属冲高回落，但弱美元预期+供应扰动担忧逻辑没变，可待铜铝锡止 跌后继续关注低吸做多机会；长期，国内潜在增量刺激政策预期仍在，并 且铜铝锡供应扰动问题仍在，供需仍有趋紧预期，看好铜铝锡价格走势。 铜观点：供应收缩预期较强，铜价延续⾼位运⾏。 氧化铝观点：成本⽀撑有效性较弱，氧化铝价仍旧承压。 铝观点：资⾦情绪反复，铝价⾼位震荡。 铝合⾦观点：成本⽀撑延续，盘⾯⾼位 ...

2025年12月26日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：通胀温和回落 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：高位调整 | 2 | | 铜：市场情绪偏暖，支撑价格上涨 | 4 | | 锌：横盘震荡 | 6 | | 铅：库存持续减少，支撑价格 | 8 | | 锡：供应再出扰动 | 9 | | 铝：震荡偏强 | 11 | | 氧化铝：持续磨底 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 铂：多头情绪占优 | 13 | | 钯：震荡上行 | 13 | | 镍：盘面资金博弈，镍价宽幅震荡 | 15 | | 不锈钢：基本面供需双弱，印尼镍矿消息扰动 | 15 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪金2602 | 1,014.24 | 1.34% | #N/A | #N/A | | | 黄金T+D | 1,006.45 | 1.44% | #N/A | #N/A | | | Comex黄金2602 | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2025-12-25 交易逻辑：11月美国CPI低于市场预期提振降息预期，美联储新一任候选 人还处于遴选中，不过这并不影响美联储独立性受损及弱美元发酵；12月 10-11日中央经济工作会议召开，定调较为积极，继续"国补"，国内消 费预期有望改善，整体上看，宏观面偏正面。原料端延续偏紧局面，并逐 步往冶炼端传导，供应端收缩风险仍然存在。终端略偏弱，12月汽车销售 延续放缓，12月空调排产降幅扩大，2026年1-2月排产预计改善，基本金 属现实供需偏宽松，但预期偏紧。整体来看，中短期，弱美元和供应忧虑 的影响再度占据主导，连现实供需偏弱但供应有收缩预期的镍也被大幅推 高，弱消费及供需偏松的现实影响成为次要因素，可继续关注铜铝锡偏多 机会；长期，国内潜在增量刺激政策预期仍在，并且铜铝锡供应扰动问题 仍在，供需仍有趋紧预期，看好铜铝锡价格走势。 ⻛险提⽰：供应扰动；国内政策刺激超预期；美联储鸽派不及预期； 国内需求复苏不及预期；经济衰退。 铜观点：美元指数⾛弱，铜价偏强运⾏。 氧化铝观点：成本⽀撑有效性较弱，氧化铝价仍旧承压。 铝观点：关注 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2025-12-23 静待消费跟进，基本金属震荡整固 有⾊观点：静待消费跟进，基本⾦属震荡整固 交易逻辑：11月美国CPI低于市场预期提振降息预期，但美联储新一任候 选人还处于遴选中；12月10-11日中央经济工作会议召开，定调较为积 极，继续"国补"，国内消费预期有望改善，整体上看，宏观面偏正面。 原料端延续偏紧局面，并逐步往冶炼端传导，供应端收缩风险仍然存在。 终端略偏弱，12月初汽车销售延续放缓，12月空调排产降幅扩大，2026年 1-2月排产预计改善，基本金属现实供需偏宽松，但预期偏紧。整体来 看，中短期，供应扰动担忧继续支撑价格，但高价对消费抑制对价格进一 步涨势构成约束，可继续关注铜铝低吸做多机会，锡近期涨幅较大且累库 加快，多头适当减仓为宜；长期，国内潜在增量刺激政策预期仍在，并且 铜铝锡供应扰动问题仍在，供需仍有趋紧预期，看好铜铝锡价格走势。 铜观点：铜矿⻓单加⼯费落地，铜价⾼位震荡。 氧化铝观点：过剩状态未有明显改善，氧化铝价继续承压。 铝观点：库存有所累积，铝价⾼位震荡。 铝合⾦观点：关注需求变化，盘⾯⾼位震荡。 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Fed's rate cut and potential bond - buying, along with China's central economic work conference's loose monetary signals, create a warm sentiment in the market despite geopolitical disturbances. For copper, short - term price may rise but consumption may limit the upward trend. For aluminum, with inventory reduction and supply issues, the price is likely to rebound. For lead, low domestic inventory of deliverable products makes the price strong. For zinc, short - term supply reduction and positive market atmosphere may lead to a stronger price. For tin, supply disruptions may drive the price up after macro - risk release. For nickel, short - term price may turn to a volatile state. For lithium carbonate, due to supply - demand uncertainties, it's advisable to wait and see. For alumina, near - cost prices may lead to production cuts, and it's better to observe. For stainless steel, high inventory is a problem, and supply control may bring a turnaround. For cast aluminum alloy, the price may fluctuate within a range [4][5][6][7][10][12][14][16][20][23][26][29] Group 3: Summary by Metals Copper - **Market Information**: After the Fed's rate cut, the US dollar index is weak, and China's central economic work conference raises loose expectations. LME copper 3M rose 2.37% to $11,833/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 94,080 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory increased by 875 tons to 165,850 tons. Domestic social and bonded - area inventories increased, and the spot premium in Shanghai decreased. The import loss was about 1,100 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap spread narrowed [4] - **Strategy**: Short - term price may still rise, but the weakening consumption may make the upward movement less smooth. The reference range for SHFE copper is 92,500 - 94,600 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is $11,600 - 11,950/ton [5] Aluminum - **Market Information**: The central economic work conference's policy signals made non - ferrous metals stronger. LME aluminum rose 1.14% to $2,895/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 22,175 yuan/ton. SHFE aluminum's weighted contract positions slightly decreased, and the futures warehouse receipts increased. Domestic aluminum ingot and billet inventories decreased, and the market transaction was average. The LME aluminum inventory decreased, and the cash/3M remained at a discount [6] - **Strategy**: With the domestic inventory decline, high US spot premium, and low LME inventory, along with supply disruptions and stable downstream production, the aluminum price is likely to rebound. The reference range for SHFE aluminum is 22,000 - 22,400 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is $2,850 - 2,920/ton [7] Lead - **Market Information**: On Thursday, SHFE lead index rose 0.21% to 17,157 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose to $1,989/ton. The refined - scrap spread was 25 yuan/ton. The domestic social inventory increased slightly by 0.13 tons to 2.29 tons [9] - **Strategy**: The lead ore port inventory decreased, and factory inventory increased. Both primary and secondary lead production rates are high, and downstream battery production also increased. With low domestic deliverable inventory, the lead price shows a strong trend in the short - term [10] Zinc - **Market Information**: On Thursday, SHFE zinc index fell 0.39% to 23,004 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell to $3,087.5/ton. The zinc social inventory decreased by 0.78 tons to 12.82 tons. The LME zinc inventory slowly increased, and the 3 - 15 spread was still high [11] - **Strategy**: Zinc ore and zinc ingot supply have decreased. With the positive market atmosphere in the non - ferrous sector, the zinc price may follow copper and aluminum to rise in the short - term after breaking through the pressure level [12] Tin - **Market Information**: On December 11, 2025, SHFE tin fell 0.63% to 320,600 yuan/ton. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 127 tons. Although the supply shortage has slightly eased, conflicts in Congo (DRC) and Nigeria still cause concerns. The traditional demand is weak, but emerging sectors provide support. The high price makes the spot trading cold [13] - **Strategy**: In the short - term, supply disruptions are the key factors for the price. After the macro - risk is released, the tin price may strengthen. It's advisable to wait and see, and the reference range for domestic contracts is 300,000 - 330,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is $39,000 - 42,000/ton [14] Nickel - **Market Information**: On Thursday, SHFE nickel fell 0.65% to 115,400 yuan/ton. The spot premiums of different brands were stable, and the nickel ore price was also stable. The nickel iron price rebounded [15] - **Strategy**: Although there is still a large surplus pressure, the short - term price may turn to a volatile state with the stable nickel iron price and warm macro - atmosphere. It's advisable to wait and see, and the reference range for SHFE nickel is 113,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is $13,500 - 15,500/ton [16] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The MMLC spot index rose 2.61%, and the LC2605 contract rose 3.02% [19] - **Strategy**: The supply - demand situation has not changed, and the inventory decline has narrowed slightly. There are uncertainties in supply release and demand. With high positions, the price may fluctuate greatly. It's advisable to wait and see, and the reference range for the LC2605 contract is 95,800 - 103,000 yuan/ton [20] Alumina - **Market Information**: On December 11, 2025, the alumina index fell 0.28% to 2,534 yuan/ton. The Shandong spot price decreased, and the overseas price also dropped. The futures inventory increased [22] - **Strategy**: After the rainy season, the ore shipment is recovering, and the ore price may decline. The alumina production capacity is still in surplus, but with the price close to the cost line, production cuts may increase. It's advisable to wait and see, and the reference range for the domestic contract AO2601 is 2,400 - 2,700 yuan/ton [23] Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: On Thursday, the stainless - steel contract fell 0.44% to 12,500 yuan/ton. The spot prices in some regions changed slightly, and the raw material prices were mostly stable. The social inventory decreased [25] - **Strategy**: High inventory is still a problem. If the supply is effectively controlled and downstream restocking demand is released, the market may turn around [26] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The main AD2602 contract rose 0.17% to 20,945 yuan/ton. The weighted contract positions increased, and the inventory decreased [28] - **Strategy**: The cost is firm, and supply disruptions support the price, but the fluctuating demand and delivery pressure limit the upward movement. The price may fluctuate within a range [29]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed's interest - rate cut and expansionary signals, along with China's relatively loose policy signals, create a positive sentiment in the有色金属 market. Different metals have different price trends based on their own supply and demand fundamentals [5][8]. - For copper, short - term prices are expected to continue rising, supported by supply tightening expectations [5]. - For aluminum, prices are expected to rebound due to factors such as inventory reduction and supply disruptions [8]. - For lead, the price shows a relatively strong trend in the short - term as the social inventory of lead ingots is at a low level [10]. - For zinc, in the short - term, the price is expected to follow copper and aluminum to strengthen, but the medium - term supply surplus cycle remains unchanged [12]. - For tin, after the release of macro risks, the price may stabilize and strengthen [15]. - For nickel, the short - term price may turn to a volatile trend [17]. - For lithium carbonate, there may be no clear trend in the short - term, and price fluctuations are likely to be large [20]. - For alumina, it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term as the price is approaching the cost line and the supply reduction expectation is increasing [23]. - For stainless steel, the market is waiting for effective supply - side control and the release of downstream demand to break the current deadlock [26]. - For cast aluminum alloy, the price is likely to follow the aluminum price in the short - term [29]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper Market Information - The Fed's interest - rate cut and bond - buying plan led to a 0.78% increase in the LME 3M copper contract to $11,559 per ton, and the SHFE copper main contract closed at 91,770 yuan per ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 700 tons to 164,975 tons, and the domestic daily warehouse receipt decreased by 0.1 tons to 29,000 tons [4]. Strategy Viewpoint - Short - term prices are expected to continue rising, with the SHFE copper main contract operating in the range of 91,200 - 93,300 yuan per ton and the LME 3M copper in the range of $11,450 - $11,800 per ton [5]. Aluminum Market Information - The Fed's actions led to a 0.6% increase in LME aluminum to $2,862 per ton, and the SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 21,960 yuan per ton. Domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventory decreased slightly, and LME aluminum inventory decreased by 3,000 tons to 521,000 tons [7]. Strategy Viewpoint - Prices are expected to rebound, with the SHFE aluminum main contract operating in the range of 21,800 - 22,200 yuan per ton and the LME 3M aluminum in the range of $2,830 - $2,900 per ton [8]. Lead Market Information - The SHFE lead index fell 0.26% to 17,121 yuan per ton, and the LME 3S lead fell $4.5 to $1,987.5 per ton. The domestic lead ingot social inventory decreased to 20,400 tons [9]. Strategy Viewpoint - The short - term price shows a relatively strong trend due to low social inventory of lead ingots [10]. Zinc Market Information - The SHFE zinc index rose 0.08% to 23,095 yuan per ton, and the LME 3S zinc rose $3 to $3,103.5 per ton. The zinc ingot social inventory decreased by 430 tons to 136,000 tons [11]. Strategy Viewpoint - In the short - term, the price is expected to strengthen following copper and aluminum, but the medium - term supply surplus cycle remains [12]. Tin Market Information - On December 10, 2025, the SHFE tin main contract rose 3.30% to 322,630 yuan per ton. The supply shortage has been slightly alleviated, but there are still concerns. The demand in traditional fields is weak, while emerging fields provide long - term support [14]. Strategy Viewpoint - After the release of macro risks, the price may stabilize and strengthen. It is recommended to wait and see, with the domestic main contract operating in the range of 300,000 - 330,000 yuan per ton and the overseas LME tin in the range of $39,000 - $42,000 per ton [15]. Nickel Market Information - The SHFE nickel main contract fell 0.64% to 116,150 yuan per ton. The nickel ore price remained stable, and the nickel iron price rebounded [16]. Strategy Viewpoint - The short - term price may turn to a volatile trend. It is recommended to wait and see, with the SHFE nickel price operating in the range of 113,000 - 118,000 yuan per ton and the LME 3M nickel in the range of $13,500 - $15,500 per ton [17]. Lithium Carbonate Market Information - The Wuganglian lithium carbonate spot index rose 0.99% to 91,969 yuan. The LC2605 contract closed at 95,980 yuan, up 3.43% [19]. Strategy Viewpoint - There may be no clear trend in the short - term, and price fluctuations are likely to be large. It is recommended to wait and see, with the LC2605 contract operating in the range of 93,200 - 98,600 yuan per ton [20]. Alumina Market Information - On December 10, 2025, the alumina index fell 2.16% to 2,541 yuan per ton. The Shandong spot price fell to 2,710 yuan per ton, and the overseas MYSTEEL Australia FOB price fell to $311 per ton [22]. Strategy Viewpoint - It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term as the price is approaching the cost line and the supply reduction expectation is increasing. The domestic main contract AO2601 is expected to operate in the range of 2,400 - 2,700 yuan per ton [23]. Stainless Steel Market Information - The stainless steel main contract rose 0.44% to 12,555 yuan per ton. The social inventory decreased to 1,080,300 tons, with a 0.54% month - on - month decrease [25]. Strategy Viewpoint - The market is waiting for effective supply - side control and the release of downstream demand to break the current deadlock [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Information - The main AD2602 contract of cast aluminum alloy rose 0.58% to 20,930 yuan per ton. The domestic three - place inventory decreased to 49,000 tons [28]. Strategy Viewpoint - The price is likely to follow the aluminum price in the short - term [29].