Core Viewpoint - International oil prices have significantly declined, with Brent crude futures dropping by 2% to $68.28 per barrel and WTI crude futures falling by 2.33% to $65.76 per barrel [1]. Group 1: Oil Price Movements - As of August 4, Brent crude futures have decreased by 2.00% [1]. - WTI crude futures have experienced a decline of 2.33% [1]. - The highest price for Brent crude was $69.98, while the lowest was $68.21 during the trading session [2]. Group 2: OPEC+ Production Decisions - OPEC+ has agreed to increase oil production by 547,000 barrels per day starting in September, marking a strategic shift towards regaining market share [4]. - This decision indicates a move away from defending oil prices to increasing production capacity, which may lead to a surplus in global supply [5]. Group 3: Goldman Sachs Oil Price Forecast - Goldman Sachs maintains its oil price forecast, projecting an average of $64 per barrel for Brent crude in Q4 2025 and $56 per barrel in 2026 [5]. - The firm notes that risks to its baseline forecast are increasing due to potential declines in oil demand linked to U.S. tariffs and economic weakness [5]. - Goldman Sachs assumes that OPEC+ will keep its production quotas unchanged after September, anticipating an acceleration in OECD commercial inventory growth [5]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Risks - The oil market is currently characterized by a contradiction between expected supply growth and stagnant demand, with geopolitical risks being a significant disturbance factor [6]. - Potential military escalations from geopolitical tensions, such as the breakdown of ceasefire negotiations in Gaza and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, could heighten concerns over oil supply disruptions [6].