中东大战，以色列股市却持续大涨！ 美东时间21日22时，美国总统特朗普就袭击伊朗核设施发表全国讲话。特朗普称，此次袭击是"一次辉煌的军事胜利"，并表 示伊朗关键的核浓缩设施已被彻底摧毁。他还强调，如果伊朗不同意和平，美国军方可能会攻击伊朗境内的其他目标。按理 来说，这一事件对于全球资本市场来说，是一大利空。 然而，北京时间22日下午开盘，以色列股市集体拉升，以色列股市基准TA-125指数 开盘涨 1.52%，创下历史新高，TA-35股 票指数开盘上涨1.41%。与此同时，卡特尔多哈股指涨超1%，沙特股指开盘后亦上涨近1%。 埃及股指则是杀跌超1%后迅速 拉升，现涨超1%。那么，市场为何如此演绎？影响究竟会有多大？ 全线暴涨 北京时间22日中东股市开盘，以色列股市不跌反涨，各大股市呈现暴拉格局。 | 指数 ÷ | 最新价 | 间庭 | | | 涨跌 = 涨跌幅 = | 时间 : | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | H 以色列TA35 | 2,874.14 | 2,874.14 | 2.857.41 | +39.83 | +1.41% | 15:09:2 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that due to the ongoing conflict, Brent crude oil prices are expected to trade around current levels in the near term, while maintaining a long-term price expectation of $60 to $65 per barrel [1]

Core Viewpoint - JPMorgan expresses reduced concerns regarding geopolitical issues and maintains its basic expectation for oil prices to remain in the range of $60 to $65 for the remainder of 2025, with an expected price of $60 in 2026 [1] Group 1 - JPMorgan's outlook indicates a stable oil price forecast despite geopolitical uncertainties [1] - The firm projects oil prices to be consistent at $60 to $65 for the rest of 2025 [1] - For 2026, JPMorgan anticipates oil prices to stabilize at $60 [1]

摩根大通维持2025年剩余时间油价在60美元至65美元区间的基本预期，2026年油价预计为60美元。摩根 大通表示"对伊朗的攻击可能会将油价推高至120美元，导致美国消费者价格指数达到5%"。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley maintains its basic expectation for oil prices to remain in the range of $60 to $65 for the remainder of 2025, with an anticipated price of $60 in 2026 [1] Group 1 - The expected oil price range for 2025 is set between $60 and $65 [1] - The forecast for oil prices in 2026 is $60 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Multiple banks have lowered their 2025 oil price expectations to below $60 per barrel due to increased OPEC+ production and stable oil demand growth [1] Group 1: Oil Price Forecasts - A survey by Haynes Boone LLP indicates that the average oil price forecast for WTI crude oil this year is $58.30 per barrel, which is a decrease of 5.8% from the banks' expectations in December of the previous year [1] - WTI crude oil closed at $63.41 on Tuesday, highlighting a discrepancy between current market prices and future forecasts [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment - Kim Mai, a partner at Haynes Boone, expressed that the expectation of oil prices falling below $60 is not surprising, as banks tend to have conservative predictions that are usually lower than market prices [1]

原油成品油早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/05/08 | 日期 | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB dated bre | BRENT 1- | WTI-BREN | DUBAI-B | NYMEX RB | RBOB-BR | NYMEX | HO-BRT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 2月差 | T | RT（EFS | OB | T | HO | | | | | | | nt | | | | | | | | | 2025/04/28 | 62.05 | 65.86 | 67.95 | 0.43 | 1.07 | -3.81 | 1.13 | 210.58 | 22.58 | 217.55 | 25.51 | | 2025/04/29 | 60.42 | 64.25 | 67.78 | - | 0.97 | -3.83 | 1.20 | 207.12 | 22.74 | 212.04 | 24.81 | | 2025/04/30 ...

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 4 月 11 日） 一、研究观点 | | 周四，上期所燃料油主力合约 FU2507 收涨 3.06%，报 2901 元/ | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 吨；低硫燃料油主力合约 LU2506 收涨 2.84%，报 3399 元/吨。此 | | | | 前特朗普表示，美国暂缓实施对部分贸易伙伴的"对等关税"， | | | | 为期 90 天，在此期间内，继续对所有美国贸易伙伴征收 10%的基 | | | | 准关税，受此影响油价出现反弹带动昨天日盘 FU 和 LU 价格小 | | | | 幅回升。截至 4 月 7 日当周，新加坡燃料油库存录得 2202.1 万桶， | | | | 环比前一周增加 31.3 万桶（1.44%）；富查伊拉燃料油库存录得 | | | 燃料油 | 1328.5 万桶，环比前一周增加 24.3 万桶（1.86%）。由于套利经济 | 震荡 | | | 性欠佳，来自欧洲的套利货流入量受到抑制。此外，中东即将进 | | | | 入夏季发电高峰期，当地未来几月的燃料油出口量将明显减少， | | | | 高硫供应阶段 ...