Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The extension of the "tariff truce" between China and the US for 90 days shows that the bilateral economic and trade relations are moving towards "phased relaxation", creating a positive atmosphere for future consultations [1] - OPEC has raised its forecast for global oil demand next year and lowered its forecast for supply growth from the US and other non - OPEC members, indicating a tighter market outlook [2] - US crude and gasoline inventories are expected to have decreased last week, with an average estimated decline of about 300,000 barrels in crude inventories and a decrease of 1.78 million barrels in gasoline inventories [2] - EIA has lowered its oil price forecasts for 2025 and 2026 due to increased crude oil inventories after OPEC+ decided to accelerate production increases [2] - In the asphalt market, demand in the North China market is slowly recovering, and supply in the Shandong market is abundant. The Northeast market has weak demand, while the Southern market has stable prices with medium - low inventory and slow demand release. Overall, regional differentiation continues, and the supply - demand structure is the key variable for short - term price trends [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Asphalt Spot Market - In the East China region, the current asphalt spot price is 3730, unchanged from the previous value; in South China, it is 3530, also unchanged; in the Northeast, it is 3900, unchanged; in the Northwest, it is 3860, unchanged; in Shandong, it is 3640, down 10 from the previous value; in the unspecified region, it is 3690, up 30 from the previous value [1] Asphalt Futures Market - For asphalt futures contracts BU2508, BU2509, BU2510, BU2511, BU2512, and BU2601, the current values are 3406, 3534, 3503, 3460, 3406, and 3370 respectively. The price changes are 0.00%, - 0.17%, - 0.14%, - 0.09%, 0.00%, and - 0.03% respectively compared to the previous values [1] International Economic and Trade News - On August 12, China and the US issued a joint statement. The US will continue to adjust tariff measures on Chinese goods, and both sides will continue to suspend the implementation of 24% reciprocal tariffs for 90 days [1] Oil Market News - OPEC has raised its forecast for global oil demand next year and lowered its forecast for supply growth from non - OPEC members [2] - US crude and gasoline inventories are expected to have decreased last week, with an average estimated decline of about 300,000 barrels in crude inventories and a decrease of 1.78 million barrels in gasoline inventories [2] - EIA has lowered its oil price forecasts. The expected average Brent crude price for 2025 is $67.22/barrel (previously $68.89/barrel), and for 2026 is $51.43/barrel (previously $58.48/barrel). The expected average WTI price for 2025 is $63.58/barrel (previously $65.22/barrel), and for 2026 is $47.77/barrel (previously $54.82/barrel) [2] Asphalt Market Analysis - In the North China asphalt market, demand is slowly recovering, and limited shipments from major refineries support spot prices. In the Shandong market, supply is abundant, and transactions are concentrated in the low - price range. In the Northeast market, demand is weak, and some traders lower prices to stimulate sales. In the Southern market, demand is slow, but refinery inventories are medium - low, and prices are stable [5] - In the future, North China and Shandong refineries will focus on contract deliveries, and inventory levels are controllable. The tight supply in North China may support asphalt prices, while the Southern market is expected to have stable prices due to slow demand release [5]

Group 1 - International oil prices experienced a sharp decline, with Brent crude futures dropping by 2.00% to $68.28 per barrel and WTI crude futures falling by 2.33% to $65.76 per barrel [1][2] - Goldman Sachs maintained its oil price forecast, projecting an average of $64 per barrel for Brent crude in Q4 2025 and $56 per barrel in 2026, while acknowledging increasing risks to its baseline predictions due to potential demand declines from U.S. tariffs and economic weakness [5] - OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, marking a strategic shift towards increasing output to regain market share [4][5] Group 2 - The oil market is currently facing a contradiction between expectations of supply growth and limited demand breakthroughs, with geopolitical risks being a significant disturbance factor [6] - The potential for military escalation from the breakdown of ceasefire negotiations in Gaza and uncertainties from the Russia-Ukraine conflict may heighten concerns over oil supply disruptions, leading to price volatility [6] - Goldman Sachs assumes that OPEC+ will maintain its production quotas after September, anticipating an acceleration in OECD commercial inventory growth and a decline in seasonal demand support [5]

Core Viewpoint - International oil prices have significantly declined, with Brent crude futures dropping by 2% to $68.28 per barrel and WTI crude futures falling by 2.33% to $65.76 per barrel [1]. Group 1: Oil Price Movements - As of August 4, Brent crude futures have decreased by 2.00% [1]. - WTI crude futures have experienced a decline of 2.33% [1]. - The highest price for Brent crude was $69.98, while the lowest was $68.21 during the trading session [2]. Group 2: OPEC+ Production Decisions - OPEC+ has agreed to increase oil production by 547,000 barrels per day starting in September, marking a strategic shift towards regaining market share [4]. - This decision indicates a move away from defending oil prices to increasing production capacity, which may lead to a surplus in global supply [5]. Group 3: Goldman Sachs Oil Price Forecast - Goldman Sachs maintains its oil price forecast, projecting an average of $64 per barrel for Brent crude in Q4 2025 and $56 per barrel in 2026 [5]. - The firm notes that risks to its baseline forecast are increasing due to potential declines in oil demand linked to U.S. tariffs and economic weakness [5]. - Goldman Sachs assumes that OPEC+ will keep its production quotas unchanged after September, anticipating an acceleration in OECD commercial inventory growth [5]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Risks - The oil market is currently characterized by a contradiction between expected supply growth and stagnant demand, with geopolitical risks being a significant disturbance factor [6]. - Potential military escalations from geopolitical tensions, such as the breakdown of ceasefire negotiations in Gaza and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, could heighten concerns over oil supply disruptions [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the unexpected rise in Israeli stock markets following the U.S. attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, highlighting the market's reaction amidst geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [1][5]. Market Performance - On the opening of the market on the 22nd, the Israeli TA-125 index rose by 1.52%, reaching a historical high, while the TA-35 index increased by 1.41% [2]. - Other Middle Eastern markets also showed positive performance, with the Saudi TASI index rising nearly 1% and the Qatar index increasing over 1% [3]. Factors Driving Market Sentiment - The surge in Israeli stocks is attributed to several factors, including perceived military successes by Israeli defense forces, leading to optimism about a quick resolution to the conflict [2]. - There is speculation about potential breakthroughs in hostage negotiations and a growing optimism regarding normalization of relations with Saudi Arabia [2]. Oil Price Expectations - Investors are anticipating that the conflict may lead to higher international oil prices, which would benefit oil-producing countries [3]. - The article notes that the attack could initially push oil prices higher, with potential implications for global inflation and consumer confidence [5][6]. Economic Impact Scenarios - Oxford Economics simulated scenarios regarding the conflict's impact on oil prices, predicting that in the worst-case scenario, prices could rise to around $130 per barrel, potentially driving U.S. inflation to about 6% by year-end [6]. - The article emphasizes that rising inflation could complicate monetary policy, reducing the likelihood of interest rate cuts in the near term [6]. Historical Context - Historical data suggests that stock market reactions to Middle Eastern conflicts can be short-lived, with markets often rebounding after initial declines [7]. - The article references past conflicts, indicating that the S&P 500 index typically experiences a slight decline in the weeks following a conflict but tends to recover and rise in the subsequent months [7]. Currency Market Reactions - The article discusses the complex effects of the conflict on the U.S. dollar, suggesting that initial safety-seeking behavior may strengthen the dollar, but the overall market reaction will depend on Iran's response and oil price movements [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that due to the ongoing conflict, Brent crude oil prices are expected to trade around current levels in the near term, while maintaining a long-term price expectation of $60 to $65 per barrel [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the contrasting oil price forecasts from various investment banks, highlighting the geopolitical tensions and their impact on oil prices, with predictions ranging from bearish to bullish scenarios. Group 1: Price Predictions - Citibank indicates that Israel's actions complicate Trump's efforts to lower oil prices, expecting energy prices to remain elevated for some time [8] - Goldman Sachs maintains that oil supply from the Middle East will not be disrupted, forecasting WTI and Brent crude prices to drop to $55 and $59 per barrel by Q4 2025, and further down to $52 and $56 by 2026 [8] - Morgan Stanley raises its oil price forecast by up to $10, adjusting Q3 Brent crude price expectations to $67.50 per barrel [8] Group 2: Geopolitical Risks - Westpac believes that oil prices will dip to the lower end of the $60 to $65 range in Q3, potentially falling below $60 in Q4 [8] - CIBC suggests that if regime change becomes a core goal for Israel, Iran may not prioritize maintaining stable crude oil supply [8] - Morgan Chase warns that an attack on Iran could drive oil prices up to $120 per barrel and increase the US CPI to 5% [8] Group 3: Speculative Levels - Spartan Capital notes that geopolitical turmoil is pushing oil prices beyond current fundamentals, recommending short positions if prices exceed $80 per barrel [8] - Dutch Bank states that significant disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could elevate oil prices to $120 [8] - OCBC Bank suggests that if the situation in Iran escalates into a larger regional conflict, Brent crude prices could reach $120 [8]

Core Viewpoint - JPMorgan expresses reduced concerns regarding geopolitical issues and maintains its basic expectation for oil prices to remain in the range of $60 to $65 for the remainder of 2025, with an expected price of $60 in 2026 [1] Group 1 - JPMorgan's outlook indicates a stable oil price forecast despite geopolitical uncertainties [1] - The firm projects oil prices to be consistent at $60 to $65 for the rest of 2025 [1] - For 2026, JPMorgan anticipates oil prices to stabilize at $60 [1]

Core Viewpoint - JPMorgan maintains its basic expectation for oil prices to remain in the range of $60 to $65 for the remainder of 2025, with a forecast of $60 for 2026 [1] Group 1 - An attack on Iran could potentially push oil prices up to $120, which may lead to a 5% increase in the U.S. Consumer Price Index [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley maintains its basic expectation for oil prices to remain in the range of $60 to $65 for the remainder of 2025, with an anticipated price of $60 in 2026 [1] Group 1 - The expected oil price range for 2025 is set between $60 and $65 [1] - The forecast for oil prices in 2026 is $60 [1]