震荡企稳

Search documents
橡胶甲醇原油:多空分歧延续,能化震荡企稳
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-09-02 11:51
Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report Core Views - The 2601 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures may maintain a volatile consolidation trend due to the divergence between bulls and bears in the rubber market, with improved macro - expectations competing against negative industrial factors [6] - The 2601 contract of domestic methanol futures may continue to lack the impetus to rebound and maintain a volatile and weak trend because of the decline in domestic coal futures prices and the weak supply - demand structure of methanol [6] - The 2510 contract of domestic crude oil futures may maintain a volatile and stable trend as the conflict between the Yemeni Houthi rebels and Israel escalates, increasing geopolitical risks and enhancing the crude oil premium [7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of August 31, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 602,200 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons or 0.6% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory decreased by 0.14% to 73,200 tons, and the general trade inventory decreased by 0.7% to 529,000 tons. The inbound rate of sample bonded warehouses increased by 2.9 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.7 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 2.1 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.6 percentage points [9] - In the week of August 29, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.97%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.90 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.73 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.89%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.08 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.10 percentage points [9] - In July 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 2.591 million and 2.593 million respectively, a month - on - month decrease of 7.3% and 10.7%, and a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and 14.7%. From January to July 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 18.235 million and 18.269 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 12%. The growth rate of production and sales increased by 0.2 and 0.6 percentage points compared with that from January to June [10] - In July 2025, China's automobile exports were 575,000, a year - on - year increase of 22.6%. From January to July 2025, China's automobile exports were 3.68 million, a year - on - year increase of 12.8% [10] - In July 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 83,000, a month - on - month decrease of 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 42% compared with 58,300 in the same period last year. From January to July, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 622,000, a year - on - year increase of about 11% [10] Methanol - In the week of August 29, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 82.31%, a week - on - week increase of 1.66%, a month - on - month increase of 0.65%, and a year - on - year increase of 6.31%. The average weekly methanol output was 1.9183 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19,400 tons, and a significant increase of 170,000 tons compared with 1.7483 million tons in the same period last year [11] - In the week of August 29, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 30.12%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.33%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was 5.79%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.01%. The acetic acid operating rate was 81.46%, a week - on - week decrease of 4.22%. The MTBE operating rate was 54.43%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.69% [11] - In the week of August 29, 2025, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 82.33%, a week - on - week increase of 3.03 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 5.91% [11] - As of August 29, 2025, the futures profit of domestic methanol to olefin was - 116 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 17 yuan/ton and a month - on - month increase of 26 yuan/ton [11] - In the week of August 22, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was 934,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 43,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 347,100 tons, and a significant increase of 144,600 tons compared with the same period last year. As of the week of August 28, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory was 333,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 22,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8,800 tons, and a significant decrease of 62,300 tons compared with 395,800 tons in the same period last year [12] Crude Oil - In the week of August 22, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 411, a week - on - week decrease of 1 and a decrease of 72 compared with the same period last year. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.439 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 57,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 139,000 barrels per day [12] - In the week of August 22, 2025, the commercial crude oil inventory in the United States (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 418 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 2.392 million barrels and a significant decrease of 6.891 million barrels compared with the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 22.632 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 838,000 barrels; the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory was 404 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 776,000 barrels [13] - The refinery operating rate in the United States was 94.6%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.00 percentage points, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 1.3 percentage points [13] - As of August 26, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 109,472 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 10,737 contracts and a significant decrease of 73,698 contracts or 40.23% compared with the average in July. As of August 26, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 202,146 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 25,253 contracts and a significant decrease of 17,930 contracts or 8.15% compared with the average in July [14] 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 15,000 yuan/ton | +50 yuan/ton | 15,870 yuan/ton | +10 yuan/ton | - 870 yuan/ton | +40 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,257 yuan/ton | +10 yuan/ton | 2,372 yuan/ton | - 13 yuan/ton | - 115 yuan/ton | +23 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 465.0 yuan/barrel | +0.1 yuan/barrel | 490.4 yuan/barrel | +6.9 yuan/barrel | - 25.4 yuan/barrel | - 6.8 yuan/barrel | [15] 3. Related Charts - The report lists relevant charts for rubber, methanol, and crude oil, including rubber basis, methanol 9 - 1 spread, crude oil basis, etc., with data sources from Wind and Baocheng Futures Financial Research Institute [16][29][40]