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橡胶甲醇原油:多空因素博弈,能化涨跌互现
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 09:35
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 11615 2025 年 8 月 22 日 橡胶甲醇原油 专业研究·创造价值 多空因素博弈 能化涨跌互现 核心观点 宝城期货金融研究所 姓名:陈栋 橡胶:本周五国内沪胶期货 2601 合约呈现放量增仓,震荡偏弱, 小幅收低的走势,盘中期价重心小幅下移至 15625 元/吨一线运行。收 盘时期价小幅收低 0.95%至 15625 元/吨。9-1 月差贴水幅度收敛至 955 元/吨。随着前期利多因素消化,在国内轮胎库存回升,外销增速放缓 的不利影响下,预计后市国内沪胶期货 2601 合约或维持震荡偏弱的走 势。 甲醇:本周五国内甲醇期货 2601 合约呈现缩量增仓,震荡偏弱, 略微收低的走势,期价最高上涨至 2425 元/吨一线,最低下探至 2398 元/吨,收盘时略微收低 0.58%至 2405 元/吨。9-1 月差贴水幅度升阔 至 111 元/吨。随着前期利空因素消化,甲醇迎来超跌反弹的走势,不 过当前甲醇供需结构依然偏弱,预计后市国内甲醇期货 2601 合约或维 持震荡整理的走势。 作者声明 予的期货从业 ...
宝城期货原油早报-20250822
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 02:23
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2510 is expected to run strongly, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends being oscillatory, oscillatory, and oscillatory - bullish respectively [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Price and Trend - The intraday view of crude oil (SC) is oscillatory - bullish, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is strong operation. The domestic crude oil futures 2510 contract closed slightly up 1.27% to 492.9 yuan/barrel on Thursday night and is expected to maintain an oscillatory - bullish trend on Friday [1][5]. 3.2 Core Logic - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts a record supply glut in the global crude oil market next year due to slow demand growth and a surge in supply, even with increased production from OPEC+ countries. Although the IEA has raised the global crude oil demand data for this year and next, the demand growth rate has declined, less than half of that in 2023. As a result, crude oil inventories will accumulate at a rate of 2.96 million barrels per day, exceeding the average accumulation rate during the 2020 pandemic. With the potential end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, the geopolitical premium will be reversed. After the release of previous bearish sentiment and the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, the domestic crude oil futures 2510 contract showed an oscillatory - bullish trend on Thursday night [5].
橡胶甲醇原油:偏多情绪回暖,能化震荡偏强
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-21 11:33
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 11615 2025 年 8 月 21 日 橡胶甲醇原油 专业研究·创造价值 偏多情绪回暖 能化震荡偏强 核心观点 宝城期货金融研究所 橡胶:本周四国内沪胶期货 2601 合约呈现震荡企稳的态势。随 着美联储降息预期升温,宏观情绪改善,叠加东南亚产胶国减产预期 增强,供应压力减轻。在偏多氛围支撑下,预计后市国内沪胶期货 2601 合约或维持震荡偏强的走势。 宝城期货投资咨询部 甲醇:本周四国内甲醇期货 2601 合约呈现震荡企稳的走势。随 着前期利空因素消化,甲醇迎来超跌反弹的走势,不过当前甲醇供需 结构依然偏弱,预计后市国内甲醇期货 2601 合约续涨乏力,空间受限。 作者声明 原油:本周四国内原油期货 2510 合约呈现震荡企稳的走势。由 于 OPEC+产油国再度加快扩大产能规模,供应压力持续回升,同时 国际能源署和美国能源署纷纷调降今明两年全球原油需求预期。在 供需结构转弱的背景下,叠加美国调停俄乌冲突,地缘风险降温导 致原油溢价缩水。短期受益于美联储降息预期升温支撑,预计后市 国内外原油期货价格或维 ...
宝城期货原油早报-20250821
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-21 01:49
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2510 is expected to run strongly, with a short - term and medium - term outlook of oscillation and an intraday view of oscillation with a slight upward bias. This is due to the release of previous negative sentiment and the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, despite the expected record supply glut in the global crude oil market next year [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Time - cycle Views - **Short - term**: The short - term view of crude oil 2510 is oscillation [1]. - **Medium - term**: The medium - term view of crude oil 2510 is oscillation [1]. - **Intraday**: The intraday view of crude oil 2510 is oscillation with a slight upward bias, and it is expected to run strongly [1][5]. 3.2 Core Logic - The IEA's energy outlook report shows that due to slow demand growth and a surge in supply, the global crude oil market will face a record supply glut next year even with OPEC+ increasing production. Although the IEA has raised the global crude oil demand data for this year and next, the demand growth rate has declined, less than half of that in 2023. Crude oil inventories will accumulate at a rate of 2.96 million barrels per day, exceeding the average accumulation rate during the 2020 pandemic. With the expected end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, the geopolitical premium will be reversed. After the release of previous negative sentiment and the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2510 maintained an oscillating and stable trend on Wednesday night, with the futures price rising slightly by 0.95% to 486.6 yuan per barrel. It is expected to maintain an oscillating and slightly upward trend on Thursday [5].
橡胶甲醇原油:偏空情绪消化,能化收敛跌幅
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-20 11:44
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, fluctuating weakly, and slightly closing lower on Wednesday. The price is expected to maintain a volatile consolidation trend in the future [5]. - The domestic methanol futures 2601 contract showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, stopping the decline and stabilizing, and slightly rebounding on Wednesday. However, the continuation of the rise is weak and the space is limited [5]. - The domestic crude oil futures 2510 contract showed a trend of decreasing volume, increasing positions, fluctuating weakly, and slightly closing lower on Wednesday. The price of domestic and foreign crude oil futures is expected to maintain a weak - fluctuating trend in the future [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of August 17, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 616,700 tons, a decrease of 3,100 tons from the previous period, a decline of 0.50%. The bonded area inventory increased by 2.12%, and the general trade inventory decreased by 0.87% [9]. - As of August 15, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of domestic semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.11%, a decrease of 0.60 percentage points month - on - month and 10.55 percentage points year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.62%, an increase of 2.56 percentage points month - on - month and 3.69 percentage points year - on - year [9]. - In July 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 2.591 million and 2.593 million respectively, a month - on - month decrease of 7.3% and 10.7%, and a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and 14.7%. From January to July 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 18.235 million and 18.269 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 12% [10]. - In July 2025, China's heavy - truck market sales were about 83,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 42%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market were about 622,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 11% [10]. Methanol - As of the week of August 15, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 79.00%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.35%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.60%, and a year - on - year increase of 4.16%. The average weekly methanol output in China reached 1.8633 million tons [11]. - As of the week of August 15, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 30.13%, a week - on - week increase of 1.47%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was maintained at 9.17%, a week - on - week increase of 2.90%. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 86.56%, a week - on - week increase of 0.11%. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 55.12%, a week - on - week increase of 1.21% [11]. - As of the week of August 15, 2025, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 79.88%, a week - on - week increase of 3.18 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 3.61%. The domestic methanol - to - olefin futures market profit was - 172 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of August 15, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was maintained at 891,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 87,800 tons. As of the week of August 14, 2025, the inland methanol inventory totaled 295,700 tons [12]. Crude Oil - As of the week of August 8, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 411, a week - on - week increase of 1 and a year - on - year decrease of 74. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.327 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 43,000 barrels per day [12]. - As of the week of August 8, 2025, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 427 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 3.036 million barrels. The U.S. refinery operating rate was maintained at 96.4% [13]. - As of August 12, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil futures were 116,742 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 25,087 contracts. The average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 199,820 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 30,594 contracts [13]. 3.2 Spot Price Table - The spot price of Shanghai rubber was 14,850 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The futures main contract was 15,675 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton from the previous day [14]. - The spot price of methanol was 2,310 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton from the previous day. The futures main contract was 2,424 yuan/ton, an increase of 33 yuan/ton from the previous day [14]. - The spot price of crude oil was 456.8 yuan/barrel, an increase of 0.2 yuan/barrel from the previous day. The futures main contract was 482.8 yuan/barrel, a decrease of 1.4 yuan/barrel from the previous day [14]. 3.3 Related Charts - The report includes various charts related to rubber, methanol, and crude oil, such as rubber basis, 9 - 1 month spread, methanol basis, 9 - 1 month spread, crude oil basis, etc. [15][27][40]
宝城期货原油早报-20250820
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-20 02:12
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report [1][5] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term view of crude oil 2510 is weak, the medium - term view is oscillating, the intraday view is oscillating and weak, and it is expected to run weakly with a dominant bearish atmosphere [1] - For crude oil (SC), the intraday view is oscillating and strong, the medium - term view is oscillating, and it is expected to run strongly. However, considering the supply - demand situation, it is expected that the domestic crude oil futures 2510 contract may maintain an oscillating and weak trend on Wednesday [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Crude Oil 2510 - Short - term: Oscillating and weak [1] - Medium - term: Oscillating [1] - Intraday: Oscillating and weak [1] - View reference: Weak operation [1] - Core logic: The bearish atmosphere is dominant [1] Crude Oil (SC) - Intraday view: Oscillating and strong [5] - Medium - term view: Oscillating [5] - View reference: Strong operation [5] - Core logic: The IEA reports that due to slow demand growth and a surge in supply, with OPEC + increasing production, the global crude oil market will face a record supply glut next year. Although the IEA has raised the global crude oil demand data for this year and next, the demand growth rate has declined, less than half of that in 2023. Crude oil inventories will accumulate at a rate of 2.96 million barrels per day, exceeding the average accumulation rate during the 2020 pandemic. As the Russia - Ukraine conflict is expected to end, the geopolitical premium will be reversed. After the previous bearish sentiment was released, the domestic crude oil futures 2510 contract maintained an oscillating and weak trend on Tuesday night, with the futures price slightly down 0.87% to 480.9 yuan/barrel [5]
橡胶甲醇原油:偏空因素压制,能化震荡偏弱
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-18 11:22
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 11615 2025 年 8 月 18 日 橡胶甲醇原油 专业研究·创造价值 偏空因素压制 能化震荡偏弱 核心观点 宝城期货金融研究所 姓名:陈栋 橡胶:本周一国内沪胶期货 2601 合约呈现缩量减仓,震荡偏强, 略微收涨的走势,盘中期价重心略微上移至 15820 元/吨一线运行。收 盘时期价略微收涨 0.25%至 15820 元/吨。9-1 月差贴水幅度升阔至 1035 元/吨。受需求因子偏强支撑,预计后市国内沪胶期货 2601 合约 或维持震荡偏强的走势。 宝城期货投资咨询部 甲醇:本周一国内甲醇期货 2601 合约呈现缩量增仓,弱势下行, 小幅收低的走势,期价最高上涨至 2420 元/吨一线,最低下探至 2385 元/吨,收盘时小幅收低 1.40%至 2396 元/吨。9-1 月差贴水幅度升阔 至 103 元/吨。受国内煤炭期货价格大幅回落拖累,叠加甲醇偏弱的供 需基本面。在偏空氛围压制下,预计后市国内甲醇期货 2601 合约或维 持偏弱格局运行。 作者声明 予的期货从业资格证书,期货 投资咨询资格证 ...
橡胶甲醇原油:偏多氛围消化,能化震荡偏弱
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-13 11:49
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 11615 2025 年 8 月 13 日 橡胶甲醇原油 专业研究·创造价值 偏多氛围消化 能化震荡偏弱 核心观点 宝城期货研究所 姓名:陈栋 橡胶:本周三国内沪胶期货 2601 合约呈现放量增仓,震荡整理, 略微收涨的走势,盘中期价重心略微下移至 15800 元/吨一线运行。收 盘时期价略微收涨 0.13%至 15800 元/吨。9-1 月差贴水幅度扩大至 1010 元/吨。受益于国内汽车产销量数据好于预期,重卡销量数据同 比增长。在需求因素驱动下,预计后市国内沪胶期货 2601 合约或维持 震荡偏强的走势。 甲醇:本周三国内甲醇期货 2601 合约呈现放量增仓,震荡偏弱, 略微收低的走势,期价最高上涨至 2497 元/吨一线,最低下探至 2477 元/吨,收盘时略微收低 0.28%至 2479 元/吨。9-1 月差贴水幅度扩大 至 104 元/吨。受国内煤炭期货价格冲高回落影响,叠加甲醇偏弱的供 需基本面。在偏空氛围压制下,预计后市国内甲醇期货 2601 合约或维 持震荡偏弱的走势。 予的期货从业资格证 ...
宝城期货原油早报-20250813
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-13 01:14
Report Summary 1. Report Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil 2510, it is expected to run weakly in the short - term, mid - term, and intraday, with a core logic of being suppressed by bearish factors and showing a weak and volatile trend [1]. - In the intraday view, crude oil (SC) is expected to be volatile and strong, and in the mid - term, it is expected to be volatile, with a reference view of running strongly. Overall, it is expected to maintain a volatile and stable trend on Wednesday [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Content 3.1 Crude Oil 2510 - **Short - term**: The short - term view is volatile, the mid - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is weakly volatile. The reference view is running weakly, and the core logic is that bearish factors suppress the price, leading to a weak and volatile trend [1]. 3.2 Crude Oil (SC) - **Intraday and Mid - term Views**: The intraday view is strongly volatile, and the mid - term view is volatile, with a reference view of running strongly [5]. - **Core Logic**: There are both bullish and bearish factors at the macro level. Trump's tariff war and the potential Fed rate cut coexist. OPEC+ is increasing production, and the supply pressure is rising. The demand is in the peak season, but there is a risk of a decline due to seasonal factors. After the digestion of bullish factors, the domestic crude oil futures 2510 contract showed a weakly volatile trend on Tuesday night, with the price slightly down 0.37% to 490.8 yuan/barrel, and it is expected to be volatile and stable on Wednesday [5].
宝城期货原油早报-20250812
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-12 02:17
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating. Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report indicates that the domestic crude oil futures contract 2510 is expected to run strongly in the short - term, with short - term and medium - term outlooks being "volatile", and the intraday view being "volatile and slightly stronger". It is predicted to maintain a volatile and stable trend on Tuesday [1][5]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Time - cycle and View Summary - For the crude oil 2510 contract, the short - term view is "volatile", the medium - term view is "volatile", and the intraday view is "volatile and slightly stronger", with a reference view of "running strongly" [1]. 2. Core Logic Summary - There are multi - empty divergences at the macro level. Trump has escalated the tariff war by demanding a 100% tariff on imported semiconductors, while also arranging "dovish" officials in the Fed. The probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in September is as high as 91.5%. OPEC+ oil - producing countries are increasing crude oil production, and supply pressure is rising. The demand side is in the peak season, with a good supply - demand structure, but there is a risk of a decline in demand due to seasonal factors. The domestic crude oil futures 2510 contract slightly rose 0.33% to 491.7 yuan/barrel in the overnight session on Monday [5].