1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The crude oil market is expected to run weakly, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends showing oscillations, and the intraday trend being weakly oscillating [1][5] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Variety Morning Meeting Minutes - For the crude oil 2510 variety, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are oscillation, oscillation, and weakly oscillating respectively, with a reference view of weak operation. The core logic is that supply surplus dominates, leading to a weakly oscillating crude oil market [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Energy and Chemical Sector - The intraday view of crude oil (SC) is weakly oscillating, and the medium - term view is oscillating, with a reference view of weak operation. The OPEC+产油国's latest monthly report shows that in August, the average OPEC+ crude oil production was 42.4 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 509,000 barrels per day in July. Since the production increase started in April, OPEC+产油国 has cumulatively increased production by 1.48 million barrels per day. After the bearish expectation of increased supply outweighs geopolitical risks, domestic and international crude oil futures prices declined slightly on Thursday night. The domestic crude oil futures 2510 contract closed 1.45% lower at 481.6 yuan per barrel, and it is expected that domestic crude oil futures prices may maintain a weakly oscillating trend on Friday [5]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report indicates that the domestic crude oil futures 2510 contract is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend. The current concerns about geopolitical factors in the domestic and international crude oil futures markets have temporarily overshadowed the pressure of oversupply, leading to a volatile rebound in oil prices. Geopolitical risks have increased and dominated the recent stabilization of oil prices [5]. 3. Summary by Categories Market Outlook - Short - term outlook for crude oil 2510: Volatile [1] - Medium - term outlook for crude oil 2510: Volatile [1] - Intraday outlook for crude oil 2510: Volatile and slightly stronger, with a reference view of a slightly stronger operation [1][5] Core Logic - The concerns about geopolitical factors such as Western sanctions on Russia, the escalating conflict between the US and Venezuela, and the Israeli air - strike on Qatar have overshadowed the pressure of crude oil oversupply, leading to a volatile rebound in oil prices. Geopolitical risks have dominated the recent stabilization of oil prices [5]. Market Performance - On Wednesday night, the domestic crude oil futures 2510 contract maintained a volatile and slightly stronger trend, with the futures price rising slightly by 0.82% to 490.1 yuan/barrel [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, fluctuating weakly, and slightly closing lower on Wednesday. With the digestion of previous bullish expectations, it is expected to maintain a volatile trend in the future [4]. - The domestic methanol futures contract 2601 showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, fluctuating strongly, and slightly closing higher on Wednesday. Affected by the weakening of domestic coal futures prices and the weak supply - demand structure of methanol, it is expected to maintain a volatile consolidation trend in the future [4]. - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2510 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, fluctuating and stabilizing, and slightly closing higher on Wednesday. After the bearish expectations landed, the oil market stopped falling and stabilized, and it is expected to maintain a volatile and stable trend in the future [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of September 7, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 59.23 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous period, a decline of 1.66%. The bonded area inventory decreased by 1.24%, and the general trade inventory decreased by 1.72%. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses increased by 0.95 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.79 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 0.6 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.39 percentage points [8]. - As of the week of September 5, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.92%, a decrease of 4.05 percentage points from the previous period and 12.98 percentage points from the same period last year; the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 60.74%, a decrease of 4.15 percentage points from the previous period and 1.12 percentage points from the same period last year [8]. - In August 2025, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 57.0%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from the same period last year and a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. The inventory warning index was above the boom - bust line, and the prosperity of the automobile circulation industry declined [9]. - In August 2025, China's logistics industry prosperity index was 50.9%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [9]. - In August 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 84,000 vehicles, a slight decrease of 1% from July and an increase of about 35% from 62,500 vehicles in the same period last year. In the first 8 months of 2025, the cumulative sales of the heavy - truck market reached 710,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 13% [9]. Methanol - As of the week of September 5, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 83.72%, a week - on - week increase of 1.41%, a month - on - month increase of 3.37%, and a slight increase of 6.20% from the same period last year. The average weekly methanol output reached 1.9183 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0 tons, a month - on - month increase of 73,000 tons, and a significant increase of 144,200 tons from 1.7741 million tons in the same period last year [10]. - As of the week of September 5, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 30.18%, a week - on - week increase of 0.06%; the dimethyl ether operating rate was 6.89%, a week - on - week increase of 1.10%; the acetic acid operating rate was 79.43%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.03%; the MTBE operating rate was 55.81%, a week - on - week increase of 1.38% [10]. - As of the week of September 5, 2025, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 80.45%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.88 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 3.75% [10]. - As of September 5, 2025, the domestic methanol - to - olefin futures market profit was - 265 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 156 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 169 yuan/ton [10]. - As of the week of September 5, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was 1.1446 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 78,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 341,300 tons, and a significant increase of 175,500 tons from the same period last year. The inland methanol inventory was 341,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 47,400 tons, and a significant decrease of 62,400 tons from 403,600 tons in the same period last year [11][13]. Crude Oil - As of the week of August 29, 2025, the number of active oil drilling platforms in the United States was 412, a week - on - week increase of 1 and a decrease of 71 from the same period last year. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.423 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 16,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 123,000 barrels per day [14]. - As of the week of August 29, 2025, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 421 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 2.415 million barrels and a significant increase of 2.397 million barrels from the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, reached 24.222 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 1.59 million barrels; the U.S. strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory reached 404.7 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 509,000 barrels [14]. - The U.S. refinery operating rate was maintained at 94.3%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.30 percentage points, a month - on - month decrease of 1.1 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 1.0 percentage point [14]. - Since September 2025, international crude oil futures prices have shown a volatile downward trend. As of September 2, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 102,428 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 7,044 contracts and a significant decrease of 19,635 contracts from the August average of 122,063 contracts, a decline of 16.09%. As of September 2, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 240,729 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 38,583 contracts and a significant increase of 38,411 contracts from the August average of 202,318 contracts, an increase of 18.99% [15]. 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | |--|--|--|--|--|--|--| | Shanghai Rubber | 15,050 yuan/ton | - 200 yuan/ton | 15,980 yuan/ton | + 40 yuan/ton | - 930 yuan/ton | - 240 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,305 yuan/ton | + 5 yuan/ton | 2,407 yuan/ton | + 9 yuan/ton | - 102 yuan/ton | - 4 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 459.6 yuan/barrel | + 0.3 yuan/barrel | 486.2 yuan/barrel | + 3.4 yuan/barrel | - 26.6 yuan/barrel | - 3.1 yuan/barrel | [17] 3. Relevant Charts - For rubber, there are charts of rubber basis, rubber 1 - 5 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [18][20][22]. - For methanol, there are charts of methanol basis, methanol 1 - 5 month spread, methanol domestic port inventory, methanol inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [31][33][35]. - For crude oil, there are charts of crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, U.S. crude oil commercial inventory, U.S. refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position holding change, and Brent crude oil net position holding change [44][46][48].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2510 is expected to run weakly, showing a volatile and slightly weak trend in the short - term, medium - term, and intraday periods. The main reason is that the expected increase in supply outweighs geopolitical risk factors [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Time - Cycle Views - **Short - term (within one week)**: The crude oil 2510 contract is expected to be volatile [1]. - **Medium - term (two weeks to one month)**: The crude oil 2510 contract is expected to be volatile [1]. - **Intraday**: The crude oil 2510 contract is expected to be volatile and slightly weak [1][5]. 3.2 Price and Market Performance - On Thursday night, the domestic crude oil futures 2510 contract slightly closed down 0.06% to 483.3 yuan/barrel, and the decline has slowed down [5]. - It is expected that on Friday, the domestic crude oil futures 2510 contract will maintain a volatile and slightly weak trend [5]. 3.3 Core Logic - The market is worried that OPEC+ oil - producing countries will expand oil production capacity again, and the increasing supply pressure outweighs geopolitical risk factors [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2510 is expected to run weakly, showing a volatile and slightly weak trend in the short - term (within a week), medium - term (two weeks to a month), and intraday. The main reason is the increasing supply pressure as the market fears that OPEC+ oil - producing countries will expand oil production capacity again, which outweighs the geopolitical risk factors [1][5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Variety Morning Meeting Minutes - For the crude oil 2510 variety, the short - term view is "volatile", the medium - term view is "volatile", the intraday view is "volatile and slightly weak", and the reference view is "running weakly". The core logic is the expected increase in supply leading to a volatile and slightly weak trend [1]. Main Variety Price and Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Energy and Chemicals Sector - The intraday view of crude oil (SC) is "volatile and slightly weak", the medium - term view is "volatile", and the reference view is "running weakly". Due to concerns about OPEC+ expanding production capacity, supply pressure has increased, overshadowing geopolitical risks. On Wednesday night, the domestic crude oil futures 2510 contract closed down 1.67% to 483.6 yuan/barrel, and it is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly weak trend on Thursday [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report Core Views - The 2601 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures may maintain a volatile consolidation trend due to the divergence between bulls and bears in the rubber market, with improved macro - expectations competing against negative industrial factors [6] - The 2601 contract of domestic methanol futures may continue to lack the impetus to rebound and maintain a volatile and weak trend because of the decline in domestic coal futures prices and the weak supply - demand structure of methanol [6] - The 2510 contract of domestic crude oil futures may maintain a volatile and stable trend as the conflict between the Yemeni Houthi rebels and Israel escalates, increasing geopolitical risks and enhancing the crude oil premium [7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of August 31, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 602,200 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons or 0.6% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory decreased by 0.14% to 73,200 tons, and the general trade inventory decreased by 0.7% to 529,000 tons. The inbound rate of sample bonded warehouses increased by 2.9 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.7 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 2.1 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.6 percentage points [9] - In the week of August 29, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.97%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.90 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.73 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.89%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.08 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.10 percentage points [9] - In July 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 2.591 million and 2.593 million respectively, a month - on - month decrease of 7.3% and 10.7%, and a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and 14.7%. From January to July 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 18.235 million and 18.269 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 12%. The growth rate of production and sales increased by 0.2 and 0.6 percentage points compared with that from January to June [10] - In July 2025, China's automobile exports were 575,000, a year - on - year increase of 22.6%. From January to July 2025, China's automobile exports were 3.68 million, a year - on - year increase of 12.8% [10] - In July 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 83,000, a month - on - month decrease of 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 42% compared with 58,300 in the same period last year. From January to July, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 622,000, a year - on - year increase of about 11% [10] Methanol - In the week of August 29, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 82.31%, a week - on - week increase of 1.66%, a month - on - month increase of 0.65%, and a year - on - year increase of 6.31%. The average weekly methanol output was 1.9183 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19,400 tons, and a significant increase of 170,000 tons compared with 1.7483 million tons in the same period last year [11] - In the week of August 29, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 30.12%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.33%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was 5.79%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.01%. The acetic acid operating rate was 81.46%, a week - on - week decrease of 4.22%. The MTBE operating rate was 54.43%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.69% [11] - In the week of August 29, 2025, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 82.33%, a week - on - week increase of 3.03 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 5.91% [11] - As of August 29, 2025, the futures profit of domestic methanol to olefin was - 116 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 17 yuan/ton and a month - on - month increase of 26 yuan/ton [11] - In the week of August 22, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was 934,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 43,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 347,100 tons, and a significant increase of 144,600 tons compared with the same period last year. As of the week of August 28, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory was 333,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 22,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8,800 tons, and a significant decrease of 62,300 tons compared with 395,800 tons in the same period last year [12] Crude Oil - In the week of August 22, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 411, a week - on - week decrease of 1 and a decrease of 72 compared with the same period last year. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.439 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 57,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 139,000 barrels per day [12] - In the week of August 22, 2025, the commercial crude oil inventory in the United States (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 418 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 2.392 million barrels and a significant decrease of 6.891 million barrels compared with the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 22.632 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 838,000 barrels; the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory was 404 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 776,000 barrels [13] - The refinery operating rate in the United States was 94.6%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.00 percentage points, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 1.3 percentage points [13] - As of August 26, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 109,472 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 10,737 contracts and a significant decrease of 73,698 contracts or 40.23% compared with the average in July. As of August 26, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 202,146 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 25,253 contracts and a significant decrease of 17,930 contracts or 8.15% compared with the average in July [14] 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 15,000 yuan/ton | +50 yuan/ton | 15,870 yuan/ton | +10 yuan/ton | - 870 yuan/ton | +40 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,257 yuan/ton | +10 yuan/ton | 2,372 yuan/ton | - 13 yuan/ton | - 115 yuan/ton | +23 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 465.0 yuan/barrel | +0.1 yuan/barrel | 490.4 yuan/barrel | +6.9 yuan/barrel | - 25.4 yuan/barrel | - 6.8 yuan/barrel | [15] 3. Related Charts - The report lists relevant charts for rubber, methanol, and crude oil, including rubber basis, methanol 9 - 1 spread, crude oil basis, etc., with data sources from Wind and Baocheng Futures Financial Research Institute [16][29][40]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 may maintain a volatile consolidation trend due to the divergence between the improvement of macro - expectations and the bearish industrial factors [6]. - The domestic methanol futures contract 2601 may continue to lack the momentum to rebound and maintain a volatile and weak trend because of the decline in domestic coal futures prices and the weak supply - demand structure of methanol [6]. - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2510 may maintain a volatile and weak trend as the South American geopolitical factors are digested and the market returns to the weak supply - demand fundamentals [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of August 24, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 606,200 tons, a decrease of 10,500 tons or 1.71% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory decreased by 4.70% to 73,300 tons, and the general trade inventory decreased by 1.28% to 532,900 tons. The inbound rate of the bonded warehouse decreased by 3.71 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.57 percentage points. The inbound rate of the general trade warehouse decreased by 0.73 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.32 percentage points [9]. - As of the week of August 29, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.97%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.90 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.73 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.89%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.08 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.10 percentage points [9]. - In July 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 2.591 million and 2.593 million respectively, a month - on - month decrease of 7.3% and 10.7% and a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and 14.7%. From January to July 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 18.235 million and 18.269 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 12%. In July 2025, China's automobile exports were 575,000, a year - on - year increase of 22.6%. From January to July 2025, China's automobile exports were 3.68 million, a year - on - year increase of 12.8% [10]. - In July 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 83,000, a month - on - month decrease of 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 42%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 622,000, a year - on - year increase of about 11% [10]. Methanol - As of the week of August 29, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 82.31%, a week - on - week increase of 1.66%, a month - on - month increase of 0.65%, and a year - on - year increase of 6.31%. The average weekly methanol production in China reached 1.9183 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19,400 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 170,000 tons [11]. - As of the week of August 29, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 30.12%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.33%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was 5.79%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.01%. The acetic acid operating rate was 81.46%, a week - on - week decrease of 4.22%. The MTBE operating rate was 54.43%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.69%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 82.33%, a week - on - week increase of 3.03 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 5.91% [11]. - As of August 29, 2025, the futures market profit of domestic methanol to olefin was - 116 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 17 yuan/ton and a month - on - month increase of 26 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of August 22, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was 934,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 43,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 347,100 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 144,600 tons. As of the week of August 28, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China was 333,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 22,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8,800 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 62,300 tons [12]. Crude Oil - As of the week of August 22, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 411, a week - on - week decrease of 1 and a year - on - year decrease of 72. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.439 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 57,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 139,000 barrels per day [12]. - As of the week of August 22, 2025, the commercial crude oil inventory in the United States (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 418 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 2.392 million barrels and a year - on - year decrease of 6.891 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 22.632 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 838,000 barrels. The strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory was 404 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 776,000 barrels. The refinery operating rate in the United States was 94.6%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.00 percentage points, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 1.3 percentage points [13]. - As of August 26, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 109,472 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 10,737 contracts and a significant decrease of 73,698 contracts from the July average of 183,170 contracts, a decrease of 40.23%. As of August 26, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 202,146 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 25,253 contracts and a significant decrease of 17,930 contracts from the July average of 220,076 contracts, a decrease of 8.15% [14]. 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,900 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | 15,860 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | - 960 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,235 yuan/ton | - 10 yuan/ton | 2,385 yuan/ton | +24 yuan/ton | - 150 yuan/ton | - 34 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 468.9 yuan/barrel | +0.3 yuan/barrel | 483.5 yuan/barrel | - 1.7 yuan/barrel | - 14.6 yuan/barrel | +2.0 yuan/barrel | [15] 3. Related Charts - Rubber - related charts include rubber basis, rubber 9 - 1 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [16][18][20] - Methanol - related charts include methanol basis, methanol 9 - 1 month spread, methanol domestic port inventory, methanol inland social inventory, methanol to olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [29][31][33] - Crude oil - related charts include crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US commercial crude oil inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position holding change, and Brent crude oil net position holding change [40][42][44]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of crude oil 2510 are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation with a weak bias" respectively, and it is expected to operate weakly [1]. - Due to slow demand growth and a surge in supply, the global crude oil market is expected to face a record supply glut next year. Although the IEA has raised the global crude oil demand data for this year and next, the demand growth rate has declined. The bearish fundamentals are dominant, and the domestic crude oil futures 2510 contract may maintain a weakly oscillating trend on Friday [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Variety Morning Meeting Summary | Variety | Short - term | Medium - term | Intraday | View Reference | Core Logic Summary | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Crude oil 2510 | Oscillation | Oscillation | Oscillation with a weak bias | Weak operation | There are differences between bulls and bears, and crude oil oscillates weakly [1] | 3.2 Driving Logic of Main Variety Price Quotes - Energy and Chemical Sector of Commodity Futures - **Core Logic**: The IEA's energy outlook report shows that due to slow demand growth and a surge in supply, the global crude oil market will face a record supply glut next year. The demand growth rate has declined, and the crude oil inventory will accumulate at a rate of 2.96 million barrels per day, exceeding the average accumulation rate during the 2020 pandemic. The bearish fundamentals are dominant after the digestion of macro - bullish expectations [5]. - **Market Performance**: On Thursday night, the domestic crude oil futures 2510 contract maintained a weakly bullish oscillating trend, with the futures price rising slightly by 1.14% to 486.6 yuan/barrel, but the rebound was suppressed [5]. - **Outlook**: It is expected that the domestic crude oil futures 2510 contract will maintain a weakly oscillating trend on Friday [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 on Thursday showed a trend of shrinking volume, increasing positions, oscillating stronger, and slightly rising. The price center of the contract during the session slightly moved up to 15,945 yuan/ton, and it slightly rose 0.28% to 15,945 yuan/ton at the close. The 9 - 1 month spread discount narrowed to 985 yuan/ton. With the divergence between long and short in the rubber market, the improvement of macro - expectations competes with the negative industrial factors. It is expected that the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 may maintain an oscillating and consolidating trend in the future [4]. - The domestic methanol futures contract 2601 on Thursday showed a trend of shrinking volume, increasing positions, oscillating weakly, and slightly falling. The futures price rose to a maximum of 2,381 yuan/ton and dropped to a minimum of 2,356 yuan/ton, and it slightly fell 0.42% to 2,373 yuan/ton at the close. The 9 - 1 month spread discount widened to 148 yuan/ton. Affected by the decline in domestic coal futures prices and the weak supply - demand structure of methanol, it is expected that the domestic methanol futures contract 2601 may maintain an oscillating and weakening trend in the future [4]. - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2510 on Thursday showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, oscillating weakly, and slightly falling. The futures price rose to a maximum of 483.6 yuan/barrel and dropped to a minimum of 478.4 yuan/barrel, and it slightly fell 0.97% to 481.7 yuan/barrel at the close. As the South American geopolitical factors are digested, crude oil returns to the market dominated by the weak supply - demand fundamentals. It is expected that the domestic crude oil futures contract 2510 may maintain an oscillating and weakening trend in the future [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of August 24, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 606,200 tons, a decrease of 10,500 tons or 1.71% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 73,300 tons, a decrease of 4.70%, and the general trade inventory was 532,900 tons, a decrease of 1.28%. The inbound rate of the Qingdao natural rubber sample bonded warehouse decreased by 3.71 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.57 percentage points. The inbound rate of the general trade warehouse decreased by 0.73 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.32 percentage points [8]. - As of the week of August 22, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of domestic semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.87%, a week - on - week increase of 2.76 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.81 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.97%, a week - on - week increase of 2.35 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 7.01 percentage points. During the period, the production schedules of maintenance enterprises basically returned to normal operation, driving the week - on - week recovery of capacity utilization, and enterprises basically maintained normal sales [8]. - In July 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 2.591 million and 2.593 million respectively, a month - on - month decrease of 7.3% and 10.7% respectively, and a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and 14.7% respectively. From January to July 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 18.235 million and 18.269 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 12% respectively. The growth rates of production and sales were 0.2 and 0.6 percentage points higher than those from January to June. In July 2025, China's automobile exports were 575,000, a year - on - year increase of 22.6%. From January to July 2025, China's automobile exports were 3.68 million, a year - on - year increase of 12.8% [9]. - In July 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 83,000, a month - on - month decrease of 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 42% compared with 58,300 in the same period last year. From January to July, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 622,000, a year - on - year increase of about 11% [9]. Methanol - As of the week of August 22, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 80.65%, a week - on - week increase of 1.65%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.01%, and a slight increase of 4.82% compared with the same period last year. The average weekly methanol production in China reached 1.8974 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 34,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,500 tons, and a significant increase of 150,000 tons compared with 1.7474 million tons in the same period last year [10]. - As of the week of August 22, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 30.45%, a week - on - week increase of 0.32%. The operating rate of dimethyl ether was maintained at 8.80%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.37%. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 85.68%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.88%. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 55.12%, a week - on - week increase of 0%. As of the week of August 22, 2025, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 79.30%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.58 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 2.88%. As of August 22, 2025, the futures market profit of domestic methanol to olefin was - 172 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton and a month - on - month increase of 31 yuan/ton [10]. - As of the week of August 22, 2025, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was maintained at 934,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 43,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 347,100 tons, and a significant increase of 144,600 tons compared with the same period last year. As of the week of August 28, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 333,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 22,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8,800 tons, and a significant decrease of 62,300 tons compared with 395,800 tons in the same period last year [11]. Crude Oil - As of the week of August 22, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 411, a week - on - week decrease of 1 and a decrease of 72 compared with the same period last year. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.439 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 57,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 139,000 barrels per day [11]. - As of the week of August 22, 2025, the commercial crude oil inventory in the United States (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 418 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 2.392 million barrels and a significant decrease of 6.891 million barrels compared with the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, United States, reached 22.632 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 838,000 barrels. The strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory in the United States reached 404 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 776,000 barrels. The refinery operating rate in the United States was maintained at 94.6%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.00 percentage points, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 1.3 percentage points [12]. - As of August 19, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 120,209 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 3,467 contracts and a significant decrease of 62,961 contracts or 34.37% compared with the average of 183,170 contracts in July. As of August 19, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 176,893 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 22,927 contracts and a significant decrease of 43,183 contracts or 19.62% compared with the average of 220,076 contracts in July. Overall, the net long positions in the WTI crude oil futures market decreased significantly month - on - month, and the net long positions in the Brent crude oil futures market also decreased significantly month - on - month [13] 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Futures Main Contract | Basis | Change Compared with the Previous Day | Rise/Fall Compared with the Previous Day | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,900 yuan/ton | 15,945 yuan/ton | - 1,045 yuan/ton | + 185 yuan/ton | - 185 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,265 yuan/ton | 2,373 yuan/ton | - 108 yuan/ton | - 1 yuan/ton | + 1 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 462.6 yuan/barrel | 481.7 yuan/barrel | - 19.1 yuan/barrel | + 2.0 yuan/barrel | - 2.3 yuan/barrel | [14] 3.3 Relevant Charts - Rubber: There are charts including rubber basis, rubber 9 - 1 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [15][17][19] - Methanol: There are charts including methanol basis, methanol 9 - 1 month spread, methanol domestic port inventory, methanol inland social inventory, methanol to olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [28][30][32] - Crude Oil: There are charts including crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [40][42][44]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The crude oil market is expected to be dominated by bearish factors, with the 2510 contract of domestic crude oil futures likely to maintain a weak and volatile trend. The global crude oil market is expected to face a record supply surplus next year due to slow demand growth and a surge in supply, despite an upward adjustment of global crude oil demand data for this year and next [1][5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Contents Time - based Viewpoints - **Short - term**: The 2510 contract of crude oil is expected to be volatile [1]. - **Medium - term**: The 2510 contract of crude oil is expected to be volatile [1]. - **Intraday**: The 2510 contract of crude oil is expected to be weakly volatile [1][5]. Driving Logic - The International Energy Agency (IEA) released an energy outlook report, stating that due to slow demand growth and a surge in supply, especially with OPEC+ increasing production, the global crude oil market will face a record supply surplus next year. Although the IEA raised the global crude oil demand data for this year and next, the demand growth rate has declined, less than half of that in 2023. As a result, crude oil inventories will accumulate at a rate of 2.96 million barrels per day, exceeding the average accumulation rate during the 2020 pandemic. With the fading of macro - bullish expectations, the bearish fundamentals prevail [5]. Market Performance - On Wednesday night, the 2510 contract of domestic crude oil futures maintained a weakly volatile trend, with the futures price closing down 1.01% to 481.5 yuan per barrel [5].