Core Viewpoint - Tencent is at a critical decision point with its stock price showing mixed signals from various technical indicators, indicating potential volatility in the near term [3][4][5]. Technical Analysis - The stock price is currently fluctuating around 518.5 HKD, with short-term support at 508.21 HKD (MA10) and 502.79 HKD (MA30), while the medium-term support is at 496.57 HKD (MA60) [3]. - Key support levels are identified at 499 HKD and 483 HKD, while resistance levels are at 531 HKD and 547 HKD [4]. - The stock has shown a volatility of 5.4% over five days, with a narrowing Bollinger Band indicating an impending breakout [4]. Short-term Trading Strategy - If the stock price stabilizes above 515 HKD and breaks through 531 HKD, it may trigger a new upward trend, suggesting the use of high-leverage bull certificates or near-price call options [5]. - Conversely, if the price falls below the 499 HKD support, investors should be cautious of potential pullback risks and consider deploying bear certificates or put options for hedging [5]. Performance of Derivative Products - From June 3 to June 5, Tencent's stock rose by 1.98%, positively impacting related derivative products, with UBS bull certificates surging by 33% and HSBC bull certificates increasing by 30% [6]. - Call options from UBS and JPMorgan also saw significant gains of 18% and 11%, respectively, highlighting the leverage effect of these products in a rising market [6]. Recommended Products - Among the current options, UBS call option 17137 offers a leverage of 11.1 times with a strike price of 563.5 HKD, suitable for bullish investors [7]. - For bearish positions, JPMorgan put option 15137 provides a leverage of 9.7 times with a strike price of 443.33 HKD, presenting a low premium for investors anticipating a downturn [7]. Popular Bull and Bear Certificates - HSBC bull certificates 67818 and 67820 offer leverage of 9.5 times and 8.8 times, respectively, with redemption prices set at 465 HKD and 460 HKD [10]. - For bearish strategies, Societe Generale bear certificate 58795 provides a high leverage of 17.8 times with a redemption price of 546 HKD, while JPMorgan bear certificate 58426 offers an even higher leverage of 20.2 times with a redemption price of 540 HKD [10].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing volatility, with Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (HKEX) trading at 390.6 HKD, down 1.91%. The stock is currently in a sideways movement above the midline on the daily chart, while the weekly chart shows a positive trend with seven consecutive weeks of gains, nearing the upper Bollinger Band at 400.65 HKD [1]. Technical Analysis - The current price of HKEX is at a critical divergence point, with multiple moving averages indicating a "strong buy" signal. However, the RSI has reached 77, indicating an overbought condition, and there is significant pressure at the upper Bollinger Band [1]. - Key support has shifted from resistance at 380 HKD to a strong support level, while the next target for bulls is the range of 406-415 HKD [1]. - Market participants are particularly focused on the 400 HKD level, with some considering short positions at this price point [2]. Derivative Products - In the options market, various call options are available, such as the Morgan Stanley call option (13652) with a leverage of 7.9 times and a strike price of 450.2 HKD, suitable for investors optimistic about breaking this price level. Another option, the Barclays call option (27807), offers 8.7 times leverage with a strike price of 450 HKD, noted for its cost-effectiveness [4]. - For bearish investors, Citigroup's put option (16606) provides 8.4 times leverage with a strike price of 333.9 HKD, while Morgan Stanley's put option (16907) offers 8.2 times leverage with a strike price of 333.68 HKD [4]. Market Sentiment - The market sentiment remains bullish, with investors closely monitoring the performance of HKEX as it approaches the 400 HKD resistance level. The trading strategies often involve gradually exiting positions as the stock price rises or deploying derivatives when reaching significant price points [2]. - Notably, when HKEX shares rose by 1.76%, related bullish derivative products performed exceptionally well, with notable increases of 36% for the Societe Generale bull certificate (54739) and 31% for the UBS bull certificate (54530) [2].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The rubber market has entered a stage of divergence between bulls and bears after the previous bullish factors have been digested. The domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2509 is expected to maintain a volatile consolidation trend [4]. - The methanol market has also entered a stage of divergence between bulls and bears. The domestic methanol futures price is expected to maintain a volatile consolidation trend [4]. - The crude oil market has entered a stage of divergence between bulls and bears. The domestic and international crude oil futures prices are expected to maintain a wide - range volatile trend [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Rubber** - As of May 11, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 618,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4,500 tons (0.73%). The bonded area inventory increased by 5.89% to 90,000 tons, and the general trade inventory decreased by 0.09% to 528,700 tons. - As of the week of May 9, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 44.80%, a week - on - week drop of 14.74% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.40 percentage points. The operating rate of semi - steel tires was 58.40%, a week - on - week drop of 8.29 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 17.80 percentage points. - In April 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 90,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 19% and a year - on - year increase of about 9.4%. From January to April, the cumulative sales were about 355,000 vehicles, showing the same level as the previous year [8]. - In April 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 2.619 million and 2.59 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 8.9% and 9.8%. From January to April, the cumulative production and sales were 10.175 million and 10.06 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.9% and 10.8% [9]. - **Methanol** - As the spring maintenance of domestic methanol plants ended, the domestic methanol operating rate and weekly output rebounded. As of the week of May 9, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 84.14%, a week - on - week increase of 3.75%, a month - on - month increase of 4.16%, and a significant year - on - year increase of 9.89%. The average weekly output was 2.0578 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 49,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 87,800 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 352,000 tons [10]. - As of the week of May 9, 2025, the operating rate of formaldehyde was 29.05%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.22%. The operating rate of dimethyl ether was 7.65%, a week - on - week increase of 0.21%. The operating rate of acetic acid was 92.58%, a week - on - week increase of 6.78%. The operating rate of MTBE was 46.41%, a week - on - week decrease of 4.68%. The average operating load of coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 76.73%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.72 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 4.43 percentage points. The futures profit of methanol to olefin was 289 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1 yuan/ton and a month - on - month increase of 151 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of April 25, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was 348,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 101,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 256,800 tons, and a significant year - on - year decrease of 123,900 tons. As of the week of May 8, 2025, the inland methanol inventory was 303,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,500 tons (7.23%), a month - on - month decrease of 10,400 tons, and a significant year - on - year decrease of 86,100 tons [11][13]. - **Crude Oil** - As of the week of May 2, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the US was 479, a week - on - week decrease of 4 and a year - on - year decrease of 20. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.367 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 98,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 267,000 barrels per day [14]. - As of the week of April 25, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 438.4 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 2.032 million barrels and a significant year - on - year decrease of 21.152 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 24.961 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 740,000 barrels. The strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory was 399 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 580,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate was 89.0%, a week - on - week increase of 0.4 percentage points, a month - on - month increase of 2.3 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 0.50 percentage points [14]. - Since May 2025, international crude oil futures prices have shown a weak volatile trend. As of May 6, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 175,428 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 1,781 contracts, and a significant increase of 15,065 contracts (9.39%) compared with the April average. The average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 96,156 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 10,566 contracts, and a significant decrease of 58,149 contracts (37.68%) compared with the April average [15]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rubber | 15,150 yuan/ton | +300 yuan/ton | 15,090 yuan/ton | - 145 yuan/ton | +60 yuan/ton | +145 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,532 yuan/ton | +10 yuan/ton | 2,320 yuan/ton | - 45 yuan/ton | +212 yuan/ton | +45 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 462.0 yuan/barrel | +0.1 yuan/barrel | 460.7 yuan/barrel | - 18.6 yuan/barrel | - 27.5 yuan/barrel | +18.6 yuan/barrel | [16] 3.3 Related Charts - Rubber: The report mentions charts such as rubber basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, etc [17][19][21]. - Methanol: The report mentions charts such as methanol basis, methanol domestic port inventory, methanol to olefin operating rate change, etc [29][31][33]. - Crude Oil: The report mentions charts such as crude oil basis, US commercial crude oil inventory, WTI and Brent crude oil net position changes, etc [41][43][45]