姓名：陈栋 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F0251793 投资咨询证号：Z0001617 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：chendong@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货 投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺 以勤勉的职业态度，独立、客 观地出具本报告。本报告清晰 准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或 间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 11615 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 专业研究·创造价值 期货研究报告 2026 年 2 月 25 日 橡胶甲醇原油 宝城期货金融研究所 甲醇：本周三国内甲醇期货 2605 合约呈现放量增仓，震荡偏弱， 略微收低的走势，期价最高上涨至 2292 元/吨一线，最低下探至 2248 元/吨，收盘时略微收低 0.88%至 2249 元/吨。5-9 月差贴水幅度升阔 至 38 元/吨。中东地缘风险升温博弈国内甲醇供应压力增大，预计后 市甲醇期货或维持震荡整理的走势。 原油：本周三国内原油期货 2604 合约呈现放量增 ...

Group 1: Hang Seng Index - The Hang Seng Index showed a slight increase, closing at 27,274 points with a gain of 0.31%, but trading volume continued to decline, raising concerns about market sustainability [1] - Investors exhibit a clear divergence in sentiment post-Lunar New Year, with bullish investors optimistic about reaching 28,500 points, while bearish investors worry about the sustainability of the current upward trend due to shrinking trading volume [1] - Technical analysis indicates a sell signal predominates, with a sell-to-buy signal ratio of 10:3, and key support at 26,700 points, with a potential drop to 26,100 points if breached [2] Group 2: Xiaomi Group - Xiaomi Group's stock price rebounded significantly, closing at 37.1 HKD, with intraday prices nearing the upper Bollinger Band, and trading volume increased [8] - To reach the target of 40 HKD, Xiaomi must break through two key resistance levels: 38.8 HKD and 39.7 HKD [8] - Some investors opted for put options as the stock price rose, indicating concerns about potential short-term pullbacks [9] Group 3: BYD Company - BYD's stock price performed well, reaching 99.15 HKD, with investors focused on whether it can stabilize above the 100 HKD mark and challenge the 110 HKD target [15] - Technical signals are neutral, with key resistance at 103.1 HKD, and a breakthrough could lead to further gains towards 110 HKD [15] - Investors are favoring long-dated call options with a strike price of around 106 HKD, which have a favorable selection in the market [16] Group 4: Ping An Insurance - Ping An's stock price has been fluctuating within a narrow range, closing at 72.5 HKD, with trading volume hitting a recent low [22] - There is a growing bearish sentiment, with some investors believing the stock needs to drop to 69 HKD before a new upward trend can begin [22] - The key support level is at 70.1 HKD, and if breached, the stock may drop to 67.5 HKD, with a sell signal dominating the market [22] Group 5: CNOOC Services - CNOOC Services' stock price reached a new high of 9.57 HKD, but trading volume slightly decreased, indicating a divergence between price and volume [28] - Despite the price breakout, technical signals remain bearish, suggesting caution regarding short-term optimism [28] - The key resistance level is at 9.83 HKD, and a breakthrough could lead to a rise above 10 HKD [28] Group 6: Trip.com Group - Trip.com Group's stock price has been hovering at low levels, closing at 446.2 HKD, with expectations for upcoming Spring Festival travel data [35] - The stock is near the lower Bollinger Band, with a slight buy signal prevailing, but the key support level is at 431 HKD, below which a drop to 395 HKD is likely [35] - Investors are advised to wait for stabilization before considering bottom-fishing strategies, with some opting for call options with a strike price of 400 HKD [35]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - On Friday, the 2605 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, rising and then falling, and slightly closing lower. The price center of the contract during the session slightly moved down to 16,360 yuan/ton, and the price at the close was slightly down 1.09% to 16,360 yuan/ton. The premium of the 5 - 9 month spread widened to 135 yuan/ton. Affected by the overall rise and fall of the energy - chemical sector, the Shanghai rubber futures closed lower under pressure, and it is expected that the rubber price may maintain a high - level shock trend in the future [5]. - On Friday, the 2605 contract of domestic methanol futures showed a trend of increasing volume and positions, rising and then falling, oscillating weakly, and slightly closing lower. The highest price of the contract rose to 2,394 yuan/ton, and the lowest price dropped to 2,302 yuan/ton. The price at the close was slightly down 0.64% to 2,320 yuan/ton. The discount of the 5 - 9 month spread narrowed to 24 yuan/ton. With the emergence of differences between long and short positions, the methanol futures may maintain a high - level shock trend [5]. - On Friday, the 2603 contract of domestic crude oil futures showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, rising and then falling, and slightly rising. The highest price of the contract rose to 499.6 yuan/barrel, and the lowest price dropped to 465.8 yuan/barrel. The price at the close was slightly up 0.81% to 470.8 yuan/barrel. As the geopolitical risk in the Middle East intensifies again, the crude oil premium rebounds, and the short - term oil price maintains a pattern of shock and strength [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of January 25, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 584,500 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from the previous period, a decrease of 0.07%. The bonded area inventory was 94,500 tons, a decrease of 5.03%; the general trade inventory was 490,000 tons, an increase of 0.95%. The inbound rate of the bonded warehouse of the Qingdao natural rubber sample decreased by 6.73 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 2.65 percentage points; the inbound rate of the general trade warehouse increased by 0.06 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.41 percentage points [7]. - As of January 30, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 74.32%, a month - on - month increase of 0.48 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 59.86 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.47%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.06 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 50.96 percentage points. During the period, some semi - steel tire sample enterprises were supported by foreign trade orders, and the device production schedule was slightly increased, which supported the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises; the shipment of all - steel tires was dull, and some enterprises still had production control phenomena, dragging the capacity utilization rate to decline slightly [7]. - In 2025, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles reached 34.531 million and 34.4 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% and 9.4%. The production and sales volume reached a new high, and the production and sales scale has remained above 30 million for three consecutive years, ranking first in the world for 17 consecutive years. Among them, the cumulative production and sales of passenger cars reached 30.27 million and 30.103 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 10.2% and 9.2%. The cumulative production and sales of commercial vehicles in China reached 4.261 million and 4.296 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12% and 10.9%, and the production and sales returned to more than 4 million. In 2025, the annual automobile exports exceeded 7 million, reaching 7.098 million, a year - on - year increase of 21.1% [8]. - In December 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 95,000, a month - on - month decrease of about 16% compared with November 2025 and an increase of about 13% compared with 84,200 in the same period of the previous year. In total, in 2025, the total sales volume of China's heavy - truck market reached a new high in the past four years, reaching 1.137 million, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [8]. Methanol - As of the week of January 30, 2026, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 87.03%, a week - on - week slight increase of 1.35%, a month - on - month slight increase of 0.45%, and a significant increase of 10.22% compared with the same period last year. During the same period, the average weekly output of methanol in China reached 2.0378 million tons, a week - on - week slight increase of 28,800 tons, a month - on - month slight decrease of 13,300 tons, and a significant increase of 112,100 tons compared with 1.9257 million tons in the same period last year [9]. - As of the week of January 30, 2026, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 29.98%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 0.5%. At the same time, in terms of dimethyl ether, the operating rate was maintained at 7.24%, a week - on - week slight increase of 1.45%. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 83.37%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 1.33%. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 58.15%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.01%. As of the week of January 30, 2026, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 76.53%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 1.47 percentage points and a month - on - month slight decrease of 4.79%. As of January 30, 2026, the futures disk profit of domestic methanol to olefins was - 136 yuan/ton, a week - on - week slight increase of 102 yuan/ton and a month - on - month significant increase of 200 yuan/ton [9]. - As of the week of January 30, 2026, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was maintained at 993,800 tons, a week - on - week slight decrease of 26,100 tons, a month - on - month significant decrease of 174,800 tons, and a significant increase of 229,500 tons compared with the same period last year. As of the week of January 29, 2026, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 454,200 tons, a week - on - week slight increase of 15,800 tons, a month - on - month slight increase of 50,100 tons, and a significant decrease of 119,200 tons compared with 573,400 tons in the same period last year [10]. Crude Oil - As of the week of January 23, 2026, the number of active oil drilling platforms in the United States was 409, a week - on - week slight decrease of 1 and a decrease of 63 compared with the same period last year. As of the week of January 23, 2026, the daily average crude oil production in the United States was 13.696 million barrels, a week - on - week slight decrease of 36,000 barrels/day and a significant year - on - year increase of 456,000 barrels/day, at a historical high [10]. - As of the week of January 23, 2026, the commercial crude oil inventory in the United States (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 423.8 million barrels, a week - on - week significant decrease of 2.295 million barrels and a significant increase of 8.628 million barrels compared with the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, USA reached 24.785 million barrels, a week - on - week slight decrease of 278,000 barrels; the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory in the United States reached 415 million barrels, a week - on - week slight increase of 515,000 barrels. The refinery operating rate in the United States was maintained at 90.9%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 2.4 percentage points, a month - on - month slight decrease of 3.8 percentage points, and a year - on - year slight increase of 7.4 percentage points [11]. - As of January 20, 2026, the average non - commercial net long positions of WTI crude oil were maintained at 78,792 contracts, a week - on - week significant increase of 20,664 contracts and a significant increase of 20,021 contracts compared with the December average of 58,771 contracts, an increase of 34.07%. On the other hand, as of January 20, 2026, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were maintained at 205,771 contracts, a week - on - week significant increase of 12,405 contracts and a significant increase of 100,312 contracts compared with the December average of 105,459 contracts, an increase of 95.12% [11]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 15,950 yuan/ton | - 350 yuan/ton | 16,360 yuan/ton | - 330 yuan/ton | - 410 yuan/ton | - 20 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,320 yuan/ton | - 5 yuan/ton | 2,320 yuan/ton | - 32 yuan/ton | - 10 yuan/ton | + 32 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 450.8 yuan/barrel | - 0.6 yuan/barrel | 470.8 yuan/barrel | - 1.7 yuan/barrel | - 20.0 yuan/barrel | + 1.1 yuan/barrel | [13] 3.3 Relevant Charts - Rubber: The report provides charts on rubber basis, 5 - 9 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [14][16][18][21][23][25]. - Methanol: The report provides charts on methanol basis, 5 - 9 month spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol to olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [26][28][30][32][34][36]. - Crude Oil: The report provides charts on crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [38][39][41][43][45].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in lithium carbonate futures prices, surpassing 180,000 yuan/ton, is driven by expectations of domestic supply contraction and improving demand dynamics [2][4]. Supply Dynamics - Concerns over supply contraction are heightened due to stricter regulations in the Jiangxi production area, with reports suggesting potential mine shutdowns [4]. - The current weekly production of lithium carbonate is approximately 22,200 tons, a decrease of 388 tons from the previous week, while weekly inventory has also declined by 783 tons to about 108,900 tons [6]. Demand Factors - The continuation of subsidies for new energy vehicles has positively influenced market expectations, with the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance announcing policies to extend subsidies for heavy trucks and buses [5]. - Despite a marginal reduction in subsidy strength, the timing of the policy has improved expectations for demand in the first quarter of 2026 [5]. Market Sentiment - There is a growing divergence in market sentiment, with downstream companies showing limited acceptance of high prices and reduced purchasing enthusiasm [7]. - The current high prices are seen as a potential trigger for previously shut-down production capacities to re-enter the market [7]. Inventory and Pricing Trends - The current inventory structure indicates low levels in the lithium salt plants and downstream sectors, while traders hold higher inventories [6]. - The static inventory days for downstream usage have decreased to 7-8 days, compared to the normal level of around 14 days in 2025, indicating strong demand [6]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the market is entering a phase of "weak expectations" versus "strong expectations," with the current price levels stimulating supply increases [9]. - The impact of rising lithium carbonate prices on energy storage costs is significant, potentially affecting the profitability of storage projects [8]. - The market is advised to monitor actual demand developments closely, as the current price surge may not be sustainable without continued strong demand [9].

Market Analysis - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) experienced a slight decline of nearly 0.3% on January 16, with intraday highs reaching 27,100 points, close to the upper Bollinger Band, before retreating [1] - The market is currently in a consolidation phase, with limited overall volatility and a trading volume that initially shrank before showing slight recovery [1] - There is a notable divergence in market sentiment, with bullish investors expecting a continuation of the upward trend, while bearish investors anticipate a potential drop to around 26,300 points [1] Derivative Investment Insights - Investors holding overnight bull and bear certificates should be cautious of the risk of forced buybacks, especially over the weekend [2] - Technical analysis indicates support levels for the HSI at 26,100 points, with a potential extreme drop to 25,700 points, while resistance levels are at 27,400 and 27,800 points [2] Company-Specific Analysis Li Ning (02331.HK) - On January 16, Li Ning's stock price broke through the 20 yuan mark, reaching a high of 20.62 yuan before closing at 20.4 yuan, with a noticeable increase in trading volume [3] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is nearing 80, indicating potential for a pullback, making it challenging to reach the 25 yuan target in the short term [3] - Key resistance levels are identified at 21.4 yuan and 21.8 yuan, with further upward movement requiring time for consolidation and volume accumulation [3] Meituan-W (03690.HK) - Meituan's stock has shown significant volatility, with a high of 108 yuan and a recent low of 99 yuan, stabilizing around the 100 yuan mark [4] - The stock exhibits a pattern of bouncing off the lower Bollinger Band and facing resistance at the upper band, presenting trading opportunities for short-term investors [4] - Key support is at 96.8 yuan, with a potential drop to 93.5 yuan if this level is breached [4] JD.com - JD.com's stock price has been on a downward trend, closing at 113.6 yuan on January 16, slightly below the middle Bollinger Band [6] - The short-term support level is at 109.7 yuan, with a risk of further decline to 105.5 yuan if this support fails [6] SMIC (00981.HK) - SMIC's stock price showed positive movement, reaching a high of 79.7 yuan and closing at 79.2 yuan, approaching the 80 yuan mark [6] - The stock is currently in a state of indecision, with no clear trend direction, and trading within a narrow range of 74.3 yuan to 81.3 yuan [7] BYD Company (01211.HK) - BYD's stock price briefly surpassed the 100 yuan mark, although it retreated by the end of the trading day [8] - The primary resistance level is at 101.7 yuan, with a potential challenge at 105.7 yuan if this level is breached [8] - Current technical signals indicate a predominance of sell signals, suggesting potential pressure on the stock price in the short term [8]

Report Overview - The report provides an analysis of the rubber, methanol, and crude oil futures markets, including core views, industry dynamics, spot prices, and related charts [6]. Core Views - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2605 showed a trend of increasing volume and positions, fluctuating strongly, and closing slightly higher. The price center shifted slightly up to 16,200 yuan/ton, closing at 16,180 yuan/ton, up 1.44%. The 5 - 9 month spread discount narrowed to 10 yuan/ton. The domestic rubber market is dominated by supply - demand fundamentals, and the rubber price has broken out of the triangular range and maintained a slightly strong pattern [6]. - **Methanol**: On Wednesday, the domestic methanol futures contract 2605 showed a trend of increasing volume and reducing positions, fluctuating strongly, and closing slightly higher. The price reached a high of 2,323 yuan/ton and a low of 2,241 yuan/ton, closing at 2,267 yuan/ton, up 0.13%. The 5 - 9 month spread premium narrowed to 20 yuan/ton. With the sharp rise in domestic coal futures prices, methanol futures maintained a strong pattern [6]. - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2602 showed a trend of increasing volume and positions, fluctuating downward, and closing significantly lower. The price reached a high of 437.3 yuan/barrel and a low of 411.0 yuan/barrel, closing at 416.3 yuan/barrel, down 2.57%. Although the geopolitical conflict between the US and Venezuela escalated, the event was quickly digested by the market. Currently, the oil market is still dominated by the expectation of supply - demand surplus, and both domestic and international oil prices remained weak [6]. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of January 4, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 548,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 23,500 tons or 4.48%. The general trade inventory increased by 16,900 tons to 460,300 tons, a 3.80% increase, and the bonded area inventory increased by 8.16% [8]. - In the week of December 26, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.36%, a week - on - week increase of 0.35 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.37 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.69%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.92 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.72 percentage points. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises may continue to decline next week [8]. - In November 2025, the inventory warning index of Chinese automobile dealers was 55.6%, up 3.8 percentage points year - on - year and 3.0 percentage points month - on - month. The logistics industry prosperity index was 50.9%, up 0.2 percentage points month - on - month. The heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles in November, a 6% month - on - month decrease but a 46% year - on - year increase. From January to November, the cumulative sales exceeded 1 million vehicles, a 26% year - on - year increase [9]. Methanol - As of the week of December 26, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 86.58%, a week - on - week increase of 0.21%, a month - on - month increase of 2.57%, and a significant increase of 7.83% compared with the same period last year. The weekly methanol production reached 2.0722 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 16,200 tons [10]. - The operating rates of formaldehyde, acetic acid, and MTBE showed different trends. The domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plant average operating load was 81.32%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.83 percentage points. As of December 31, 2025, the methanol to olefin futures盘面 profit was - 300 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/ton [10]. - As of the week of December 26, 2025, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was 1.1316 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 113,200 tons. The inland methanol inventory was 422,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 18,600 tons [11]. Crude Oil - As of the week of December 26, 2025, the number of active oil drilling platforms in the US was 409, a week - on - week increase of 3. The US daily crude oil production was 13.827 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 0.2 million barrels per day [11]. - As of the week of December 26, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory was 422.9 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 1.934 million barrels. The Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 549,000 barrels, and the strategic petroleum reserve increased by 248,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate was 94.7%, a week - on - week increase of 0.1 percentage points [12]. - As of December 23, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions of WTI crude oil were 64,898 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 10,002 contracts. The average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 99,095 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 58,107 contracts [12]. Spot Price Table | 品种 | 现货价格 | 较前一日涨跌 | 期货主力合约 | 较前一日涨跌 | 基差 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 15,750 yuan/ton | +100 yuan/ton | 16,180 yuan/ton | +130 yuan/ton | - 430 yuan/ton | - 30 yuan/ton | | 甲醇 | 2,305 yuan/ton | - 2 yuan/ton | 2,267 yuan/ton | - 26 yuan/ton | +38 yuan/ton | +24 yuan/ton | | 原油 | 402.2 yuan/barrel | +0.0 yuan/barrel | 416.3 yuan/barrel | - 11.9 yuan/barrel | - 14.1 yuan/barrel | +11.9 yuan/barrel | [13] Related Charts - The report includes charts of rubber (such as rubber basis, 5 - 9 month spread, futures inventory, and tire开工率), methanol (such as methanol basis, 5 - 9 month spread, port and inland inventory, and production cost), and crude oil (such as crude oil basis, commercial inventory, refinery operating rate, and net position changes) [14][27][40].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The methanol 2605 contract is expected to run strongly in the short - term, with short - term and medium - term trends being volatile and the intraday trend being strong [1][5] - Due to increasing domestic methanol supply pressure and a significant correction in domestic coal futures prices, the methanol futures' rebound was hindered, and it re - entered a correction. Although port and inland inventories have slightly declined, they remain at high levels. Downstream demand improvement is insufficient, and olefin disk profits are weakening. With the emergence of long - short divergence, last Friday night, domestic methanol futures maintained a volatile and stable trend with a slight increase in prices. It is expected that on Monday, domestic methanol futures may maintain this volatile and stable trend [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Time - cycle and Viewpoint Summary - For the methanol 2605 contract, the short - term trend is volatile, the medium - term is volatile, and the intraday is strong. The reference view is a strong run, and the core logic is the emergence of long - short divergence leading to a volatile and strong trend [1] 3.2 Price and Market Logic Summary - The calculation of the price increase or decrease range is based on the night - session closing price for varieties with night sessions and the previous day's closing price for varieties without night sessions as the starting price, and the day - session closing price as the ending price [2] - A decline greater than 1% is considered weak, a decline between 0 - 1% is considered slightly weak, an increase between 0 - 1% is considered slightly strong, and an increase greater than 1% is considered strong. The slightly strong/weak concept only applies to the intraday view [3][4] - The intraday view of methanol is strong, and the medium - term view is volatile. The reference view is a strong run. The core logic involves supply pressure, coal price decline, high inventory, weak downstream demand, and the emergence of long - short divergence [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the nickel variety, the rebound of Shanghai nickel is restricted by the fundamentals, and it will likely enter a range - bound pattern in the short term. Attention should be paid to the implementation of Indonesian policies, inventory changes, and the recovery of downstream demand [3]. - For the stainless - steel variety, due to low demand and high inventory, stainless steel is expected to show a wide - range oscillation pattern in the game between policy support and weak fundamentals [5]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On December 25, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2601 opened at 127,500 yuan/ton and closed at 125,410 yuan/ton, a - 1.22% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 650,804 (- 444,527) lots, and the open interest was 144,402 (- 7,820) lots. The price movement was the result of the game between policy expectations and fundamental realities. In the short term, the nickel price will be driven by market sentiment to maintain a slightly stronger oscillation pattern but is still suppressed by high inventory and weak demand [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market trading has become sluggish, and prices are mainly stable. In the Philippines, northern mines have limited shipments, and mines have a price - holding attitude. In Indonesia, the December (second - phase) domestic trade benchmark price has dropped by 0.11 - 0.18 dollars/ton, and the current mainstream premium remains at +25 [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 130,800 yuan/ton, a 3,000 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous trading day. Spot trading was average, and the transaction center has shifted significantly upwards. The spot premiums of various refined nickel brands have mostly been adjusted upwards [2]. Strategy - The short - term strategy for nickel is mainly range - bound operations, with no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options [3][4]. Stainless - Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On December 25, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract 2602 opened at 12,720 yuan/ton and closed at 12,990 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 163,852 (- 81,031) lots, and the open interest was 101,925 (- 4,171) lots. Affected by the回调 of Shanghai nickel, the rebound of the stainless - steel main contract paused. If policy support is insufficient, the future rebound strength is expected to be limited [4]. - **Spot**: The futures market has weakened, and downstream acceptance of high prices is limited, with low purchasing enthusiasm. The stainless - steel price in Wuxi market is 13,050 (+0) yuan/ton, and in Foshan market is 13,025 (+0) yuan/ton [4]. Strategy - The short - term strategy for stainless steel is neutral, with no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options [5].

Market Overview - A-shares are experiencing a continued adjustment, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.88% at 3857.24, the Shenzhen Component down 2.72% at 12627.85, and the ChiNext down 3.18% at 2945.61, as of November 21 [3] - The total trading volume across the three markets reached 13,174 billion, an increase of 2,004 billion compared to the previous day, with over 4,900 stocks declining [3] Sector Performance - The China Shipbuilding Industry is active, with stocks like Jiuzhiyang hitting the daily limit and others like China Shipbuilding Defense and Kunshan Intelligent rising over 6% [3] - Conversely, the energy metal sector saw significant declines, with companies such as Ganfeng Lithium and Tibet Mining hitting their daily limit down [3] Regulatory and Market Sentiment - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange announced adjustments to trading fees and limits for lithium carbonate futures, which may temper the recent bullish sentiment in the market [3] - According to CITIC Futures, the current supply-demand dynamics favor a quicker destocking of lithium carbonate, but the recent regulatory changes may cool investor enthusiasm and increase volatility risks [3] Economic Insights - Yang Delong, Chief Economist at Qianhai Kaiyuan Fund, suggests that the recent market fluctuations are typical as investors take profits near year-end, but this does not indicate the end of the structural market rally [4] - The sales of equity funds have shown a notable recovery, indicating that more investors are entering the stock market seeking opportunities, especially given low returns on bank deposits and wealth management products [4] - Yang anticipates that the Shanghai Composite Index could trade above 4,000 points by 2026, reflecting a potential upward trend after the current adjustments [4] Risk Assessment - Bohai Securities reports that the current market adjustment is primarily due to external risk releases, but the overall risk remains moderate [5] - The regulatory emphasis on preventing extreme market fluctuations suggests that there is no strong basis for a sustained decline, and the recent adjustments may provide a window for capital reallocation [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report Core Views - The 2601 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures may maintain a volatile consolidation trend due to the divergence between bulls and bears in the rubber market, with improved macro - expectations competing against negative industrial factors [6] - The 2601 contract of domestic methanol futures may continue to lack the impetus to rebound and maintain a volatile and weak trend because of the decline in domestic coal futures prices and the weak supply - demand structure of methanol [6] - The 2510 contract of domestic crude oil futures may maintain a volatile and stable trend as the conflict between the Yemeni Houthi rebels and Israel escalates, increasing geopolitical risks and enhancing the crude oil premium [7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of August 31, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 602,200 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons or 0.6% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory decreased by 0.14% to 73,200 tons, and the general trade inventory decreased by 0.7% to 529,000 tons. The inbound rate of sample bonded warehouses increased by 2.9 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.7 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 2.1 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.6 percentage points [9] - In the week of August 29, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.97%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.90 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.73 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.89%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.08 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.10 percentage points [9] - In July 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 2.591 million and 2.593 million respectively, a month - on - month decrease of 7.3% and 10.7%, and a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and 14.7%. From January to July 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 18.235 million and 18.269 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 12%. The growth rate of production and sales increased by 0.2 and 0.6 percentage points compared with that from January to June [10] - In July 2025, China's automobile exports were 575,000, a year - on - year increase of 22.6%. From January to July 2025, China's automobile exports were 3.68 million, a year - on - year increase of 12.8% [10] - In July 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 83,000, a month - on - month decrease of 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 42% compared with 58,300 in the same period last year. From January to July, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 622,000, a year - on - year increase of about 11% [10] Methanol - In the week of August 29, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 82.31%, a week - on - week increase of 1.66%, a month - on - month increase of 0.65%, and a year - on - year increase of 6.31%. The average weekly methanol output was 1.9183 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19,400 tons, and a significant increase of 170,000 tons compared with 1.7483 million tons in the same period last year [11] - In the week of August 29, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 30.12%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.33%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was 5.79%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.01%. The acetic acid operating rate was 81.46%, a week - on - week decrease of 4.22%. The MTBE operating rate was 54.43%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.69% [11] - In the week of August 29, 2025, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 82.33%, a week - on - week increase of 3.03 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 5.91% [11] - As of August 29, 2025, the futures profit of domestic methanol to olefin was - 116 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 17 yuan/ton and a month - on - month increase of 26 yuan/ton [11] - In the week of August 22, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was 934,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 43,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 347,100 tons, and a significant increase of 144,600 tons compared with the same period last year. As of the week of August 28, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory was 333,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 22,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8,800 tons, and a significant decrease of 62,300 tons compared with 395,800 tons in the same period last year [12] Crude Oil - In the week of August 22, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 411, a week - on - week decrease of 1 and a decrease of 72 compared with the same period last year. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.439 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 57,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 139,000 barrels per day [12] - In the week of August 22, 2025, the commercial crude oil inventory in the United States (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 418 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 2.392 million barrels and a significant decrease of 6.891 million barrels compared with the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 22.632 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 838,000 barrels; the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory was 404 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 776,000 barrels [13] - The refinery operating rate in the United States was 94.6%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.00 percentage points, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 1.3 percentage points [13] - As of August 26, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 109,472 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 10,737 contracts and a significant decrease of 73,698 contracts or 40.23% compared with the average in July. As of August 26, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 202,146 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 25,253 contracts and a significant decrease of 17,930 contracts or 8.15% compared with the average in July [14] 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 15,000 yuan/ton | +50 yuan/ton | 15,870 yuan/ton | +10 yuan/ton | - 870 yuan/ton | +40 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,257 yuan/ton | +10 yuan/ton | 2,372 yuan/ton | - 13 yuan/ton | - 115 yuan/ton | +23 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 465.0 yuan/barrel | +0.1 yuan/barrel | 490.4 yuan/barrel | +6.9 yuan/barrel | - 25.4 yuan/barrel | - 6.8 yuan/barrel | [15] 3. Related Charts - The report lists relevant charts for rubber, methanol, and crude oil, including rubber basis, methanol 9 - 1 spread, crude oil basis, etc., with data sources from Wind and Baocheng Futures Financial Research Institute [16][29][40]