2025.12.16 周二 文/南篱 各位好，我是南篱，一个财经人。 A、关于ETF持仓 自十一月以来，减持和增持分化的非常严重。 两个月的时间，增持达到了14次，减持10次，但是从圈出来的地方可见，增持一般发生在非常密集的方位的，减持呢，一直是断断续续的。 | 用和营型同意论要 | 日期 (美国时间) | 总库存(肥) | 增持/减持(吨) | 总价值(美元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 東 | 2025年12月12日 | 1053.12 | 2.29 | 147163302537.55 | | 黄金 | 2025年12月11日 | 1050.83 | 4.01 | 142905733606.67 | | 黄金 | 2025年12月10日 | 1046.82 | -1.15 | 141346172474.77 | | 菓子 | 2025年12月09日 | 1047.97 | -1.14 | 141429801831.04 | | 黄金 | 2025年12月08日 | 1049.11 | -1.14 | 141256928064.95 | | 菓子 | 2025年1 ...

Group A: ETF Holdings - The article discusses the changes in ETF holdings, indicating a significant increase in holdings in mid-October followed by a series of reductions, reflecting institutional panic as the market declined [4][5]. - In November, there has been a slight but continuous increase in ETF holdings, suggesting renewed confidence in gold among investors [4][5]. Group B: Speculative Sentiment Report - The speculative sentiment in the gold market has remained skewed towards bearish, with reports indicating a consistent 60-40 or even 70-30 split, suggesting a lack of bullish momentum [8][9]. - For gold to initiate a new upward trend, a shift back to a more bullish sentiment (at least a 70-30 split) is necessary [9]. Group C: Interest Rate Decisions and Policy Changes - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting revealed a consensus among officials leaning towards hawkish policies, with concerns about inflation and public trust in the Fed [10][11]. - The Fed has decided to end its balance sheet reduction earlier than expected, which may signal a shift from a tightening to a more accommodative monetary policy [12][14]. Group D: Non-Farm Payroll Insights - The article notes that the unemployment rate has remained around 4.3%, with expectations that the upcoming non-farm payroll data will not be particularly strong due to ongoing tariff issues [16][19]. - The impact of the non-farm payroll data on the market is highlighted, with specific thresholds indicating potential market reactions for both the dollar and gold [19]. Group E: December Layout - The article suggests that adjustments are ongoing, with a cautious approach recommended for participation in the market due to high volatility and increased risk [22][23].

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing weak fluctuations, and there is a focus on whether the downward trend can continue, particularly with key support levels being monitored ahead of the non-farm payroll report [1] Group 1 - The current market analysis indicates a bearish sentiment in gold prices, suggesting potential for further declines [1] - Attention is being drawn to critical support levels that may influence short-term trading strategies [1] - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is highlighted as a significant event that could impact market movements [1]

Core Viewpoint - The short-term outlook for gold is weak, with market participants awaiting the interest rate decision and non-farm payroll guidance [1] Group 1 - The bearish momentum in gold has weakened, raising questions about whether bulls can find a bottom to position themselves [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing rebound in gold prices and speculates on the potential for prices to rise above the 3400 mark, particularly in light of upcoming non-farm payroll data [1]. Group 1 - Gold prices are currently experiencing a rebound, indicating a positive trend in the market [1]. - Analysts are closely monitoring the impact of non-farm payroll data on gold prices, suggesting that this economic indicator could significantly influence market movements [1].