Group 1 - The article discusses various economic indicators and events scheduled for October, including employment data and consumer confidence indices in the US and Eurozone [2][3] - Key dates include the release of the US September ADP employment numbers and the unemployment rate, as well as the Eurozone's August unemployment rate [2] - The article highlights the importance of the US non-farm payroll data and the consumer confidence index for October, which are critical for assessing economic health [3] Group 2 - The article mentions the upcoming release of China's September industrial profits and the significance of these figures for understanding the country's economic performance [3] - It also notes the scheduled announcements from central banks, including the Bank of Canada and the European Central Bank, which could impact market expectations [3] - The article emphasizes the relevance of oil inventory data and production numbers, which are crucial for the energy sector [2][3]

本周二12：30，澳洲联储将公布9月利率决议结果，主流预期认为其将维持3.6%的基准利率不变。今年以来，澳洲联储已经降息三次，累计幅度75基点， 最近一次降息出现在8月份。历史数据看，澳洲联储遵循"间隔降息"的策略，也就是8月份降息后，9月份暂停降息，之后在11月份再次降息。经济数据 看，澳大利亚的二季度GDP年率增速为1.8%，连续三个月升高。二季度核心通胀率为2.7%，连续十期下降。最新失业率为4.2%，低于5%的警戒水平。七 月份出口总额460.2亿澳元，创出近21个月新高。综合来看，澳大利亚的经济数据表现良好，利率没有必要大幅度下调，支持本周澳洲联储维持基准利率 不变的判断。 ATFX前瞻：本周即将发布的经济数据重要性由高到低分别为：美国9月非农就业报告、澳洲联储利率决议、欧元区9月CPI年率，接下来做逐一解读。 ▲ATFX图 本周五20：30，美国劳工部劳动统计局将公布美国9月非农就业报告，该报告将披露美国就业市场的关键数据，预计会对美指、金银的行情产生显著冲 击。报告中最重要的数据是新增非农就业人口，前值为2.2万人，预期值5万人，预期较为乐观。历史数据看，20万人以上的非农就业人口数据会提振美 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Commerce Department will release the August core PCE price index year-on-year data, with the previous value at 2.9% and the expected value remaining unchanged [2] - The core PCE data is a key basis for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy adjustments, and stable data performance is beneficial for maintaining the current interest rate cut trend [2] - The labor market in the U.S. has shown weakness since May, leading the Federal Reserve to shift focus from PCE data to non-farm payroll reports [2] Group 2 - The Swiss National Bank is expected to maintain a zero interest rate in its September rate decision, as inflation remains low at 0.7% in August, below the previous value of 0.8% [4] - The Swiss economy is experiencing weak inflation, which corresponds to a loose monetary policy, and the Swiss franc may face significant pressure due to the zero interest rate environment [4] - Despite the zero interest rate, the Swiss franc retains its safe-haven status, which may lead to appreciation against the U.S. dollar and euro amid global economic uncertainty [4] Group 3 - Major developed countries will release manufacturing PMI data, with expectations for France, Germany, the Eurozone, and the UK showing mixed results, while the U.S. manufacturing PMI is expected to decline slightly [5] - The manufacturing outlook in Europe appears positive, with expected values above the 50 mark, except for the UK, indicating growth [5] - The U.S. manufacturing PMI is still above the 50 mark, suggesting limited impact on the U.S. dollar index despite a slight expected decline [5]

Gold - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points on September 18, with projections indicating two more 25 basis point cuts in the upcoming meetings, targeting a rate of 3.4% for next year, which is less than investors expected [1] - Wall Street believes that the rate cuts will occur faster than the Fed's projections, with futures markets betting on a drop to 3% by the end of next year, significantly lower than the Fed's forecast [1] - Technical analysis shows a bullish trend for gold, with a strong likelihood of further increases, and short-term support at $3,695 [1] Oil - OPEC+ has accelerated production since April, with cumulative increases exceeding the voluntary cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day planned for November 2023, ending a year earlier than expected [2] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a 4 million barrel increase in distillate inventories, raising concerns about oversupply [2] - Technical analysis indicates a bearish outlook for oil, with a potential drop below $61.50 leading to a target of $55 [2] Dollar Index - New Fed Governor Milan emphasized the Fed's independence and the need for objective economic data interpretation, suggesting a rate cut of over 100 basis points by year-end [3] - Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari noted that a weak job market influenced the September rate cut decision, with further cuts likely in upcoming meetings [3] - The dollar index rebounded strongly post-Fed meeting, with resistance at the 97.80-98 range and key support at 97.23 [3] Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 has maintained a strong bullish trend with high volatility, indicating a high probability of breaking previous highs [4] Copper - Copper prices experienced a pullback from $4.65, finding support at $4.51, with a potential for further gains in the near term [5] - Short-term resistance is noted at $4.62, with a breakout potentially targeting the $4.65-$4.70 range, and support at $4.53 [5] Market Overview - The U.S. House passed a Republican funding bill, but it failed in the Senate, prompting Democratic leaders to seek discussions with Trump to avoid a government shutdown [6] - The EU Commission approved a new sanctions package against Russia, lowering the oil price cap to $47.6 per barrel and proposing a ban on Russian LNG imports by January 1, 2027, a year earlier than planned [6] - The Bank of Japan maintained interest rates, with two members proposing a 25 basis point hike and initiating an ETF selling plan with an annual reduction of 330 billion yen [7]

Market Performance - The three major US stock indices reached new closing highs, with the Dow Jones up 0.37% at 46,315.27 points, the S&P 500 up 0.49% at 6,664.36 points, and the Nasdaq up 0.72% at 22,631.48 points [4] - For the week, the Dow Jones rose 1.05%, the S&P 500 increased by 1.22%, and the Nasdaq gained 2.21% [6] Federal Reserve Insights - Market expectations for further monetary easing have increased, with the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October rising to 89.8% from 87.4% the previous day [6] Trump Gold Card Announcement - Former President Trump announced the launch of the "Trump Gold Card," which individuals can apply for at a cost of $1 million and businesses for $2 million, projecting over $100 billion in revenue [7][9] Apple iPhone Pricing - Apple CEO Tim Cook stated that the high starting price of the new iPhone is not due to Trump's tariff policies, marking a rare direct response to such claims [10] Precious Metals Market - The Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index rose by 4.76%, closing at 283.70 points, surpassing the previous historical high of 277.84 points [13] - Spot gold increased by 1.11% to $3,684.80 per ounce, with a weekly gain of 1.15% [13] - Spot silver rose by 2.14% to $43.0854 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures increased by 1.28% to $43.380 per ounce [13] Oil Market Trends - Oil prices fell for the third consecutive day, with WTI crude oil futures for October down 1.4% to $62.68 per barrel, and November Brent crude down 1.1% to $66.68 per barrel [16]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market has been oscillating at the bottom, with weak repair momentum. In the short term, institutional behavior, expectations of incremental policies, and changes in the capital market are the main driving factors. The "supply - strong, demand - weak" pattern may continue in August economic data, and the bond market is unlikely to trend downward significantly, with yields expected to remain in a high - level oscillation pattern. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis and focus on term spread trading opportunities brought by the steepening of the yield curve [97][98] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Performance of Treasury Futures Contracts**: The 30 - year TL2512 contract fell 0.41%, the 10 - year T2512 contract rose 0.12%, the 5 - year TF2512 contract rose 0.07%, and the 2 - year TS2512 contract fell 0.02%. The trading volumes of TS, TF, and T contracts increased, while that of the TL contract decreased. The open interests of all TS, TF, T, and TL contracts increased [13][17][23][31] - **Performance of Deliverable Bonds**: The prices of some deliverable bonds changed, such as the 30 - year 210005 IB falling 0.14 and the 10 - year 220017 IB rising 0.05 [13] 2. News Review and Analysis - **Domestic News**: In August, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.2% year - on - year, social consumer goods retail sales reached 39668 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%, and fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 0.20% month - on - month. The urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.3%. The Sino - US economic and trade leaders held talks and reached a basic framework consensus on some issues [34] - **Overseas News**: US retail sales in August were 732.01 billion US dollars, a month - on - month increase of 0.6%. The initial jobless claims were 231,000, a significant drop. The Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4% - 4.25% [10][35][36] 3. Chart Analysis - **Spread Changes** - **Yield Spreads**: The spread between 10 - year and 5 - year bonds widened slightly, while the spread between 10 - year and 1 - year bonds narrowed slightly. The spreads between 2 - year and 5 - year, 5 - year and 10 - year contract main contracts widened slightly. The 10 - year and 30 - year contract inter - period spreads widened significantly, the 5 - year contract inter - period spread narrowed, and the 2 - year contract inter - period spread widened [44][48][52] - **Treasury Futures Main Position Changes**: The net short positions of the top 20 positions in the T contract increased significantly [64] - **Interest Rate Changes** - **Shibor and Treasury Yields**: Overnight, 1 - week, 2 - week, and 1 - month Shibor rates all increased. The yields of treasury bonds due in 1 - 7 years changed between - 1 and 2 basis points, and the yields of 10 - year and 30 - year bonds rose by about 0.4 and 1 basis points to 1.80% and 2.10% respectively [68] - **Sino - US Treasury Yield Spreads**: The spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year Sino - US treasury bonds widened slightly [73] - **Central Bank Open - Market Operations**: The central bank conducted 1826.8 billion yuan in reverse repurchases and 150 billion yuan in treasury cash deposits, with 1264.5 billion yuan in reverse repurchases and 120 billion yuan in treasury cash deposits maturing, resulting in a net injection of 592.3 billion yuan. The weighted average DR007 rate rebounded to around 1.50% [77] - **Bond Issuance and Maturity**: This week, bonds worth 1708.793 billion yuan were issued, with a total repayment of 1190.265 billion yuan, and a net financing of 518.528 billion yuan [81] - **Market Sentiment** - **USD/CNY Exchange Rate**: The central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.1128, with a cumulative depreciation of 109 basis points this week. The spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB weakened [86] - **US Treasury Yields and VIX Index**: The yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds oscillated upward, and the VIX index increased [91] - **A - Share Risk Premium**: The yield of 10 - year treasury bonds decreased, and the A - share risk premium increased slightly [94] 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - **Domestic Fundamentals**: In August, industrial growth, social retail, and export growth slowed down, fixed - asset investment continued to shrink, and the unemployment rate rose seasonally. Social financing growth declined slightly, and credit growth was weak. The economic recovery has slowed down since July, and the manufacturing PMI is still in the contraction range. Supply - demand contradictions persist, and macro - policies need to boost domestic demand [97] - **Overseas Situation**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US decreased significantly, but overall employment growth slowed down. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the market's expectation of a rate cut in October increased [97] - **Bond Market Outlook and Strategy**: The bond market has been oscillating at the bottom, with weak repair momentum. The "supply - strong, demand - weak" pattern may continue, and the bond market is unlikely to trend downward significantly. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis and focus on term spread trading opportunities [98]

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Market Reactions - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate decision has led to a boost in market risk appetite, particularly benefiting technology stocks [1] - Major U.S. stock indices closed at all-time highs, with the Dow Jones up 0.27%, S&P 500 up 0.48%, and Nasdaq up 0.94% [1] Group 2: Gold and Commodities - Following the Fed's rate cut, gold prices fell over 1%, with December futures closing at $3,678.3 per ounce, down 1.06% [4] - International oil prices experienced a slight decline, with light crude futures at $63.57 per barrel and Brent crude at $67.44 per barrel, both down 0.75% [13] Group 3: Company-Specific Developments - Nvidia announced a $5 billion investment in Intel, purchasing shares at $23.28 each, which led to a 22% surge in Intel's stock price, marking its largest single-day gain since October 1987 [6] - Novo Nordisk's stock rose over 6% following positive trial results for semaglutide's weight loss effects [11] Group 4: European Market Response - The Bank of England maintained its benchmark interest rate at 4% and indicated a cautious approach to future rate cuts, contributing to a positive response in European stock indices [9] - European indices saw gains, with the FTSE 100 up 0.21%, CAC 40 up 0.87%, and DAX up 1.35% [9]

Group 1: Market Reactions - Investors are assessing the Federal Reserve's latest interest rate decision and future rate cut paths, leading to increased market risk appetite and a rise in technology stocks [1] - The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index showed a significant rebound, indicating an improvement in regional manufacturing activity [1] - All three major U.S. stock indices closed at record highs, with the Dow Jones up 0.27%, S&P 500 up 0.48%, and Nasdaq up 0.94% [1] Group 2: Gold and Commodities - Following the Federal Reserve's rate cut, some investors chose to take profits, coupled with a rebound in the U.S. dollar index, putting downward pressure on gold prices [4] - As of the close, December gold futures were priced at $3678.3 per ounce, reflecting a decline of 1.06% [4] - International oil prices experienced a slight decline due to geopolitical tensions and weak U.S. crude demand, with light crude futures at $63.57 per barrel and Brent crude at $67.44 per barrel, both down 0.75% [13] Group 3: Company Developments - Nvidia announced a $5 billion investment to purchase Intel common stock at $23.28 per share, with Intel integrating Nvidia's graphics processing technology into its next-generation PC chips [6] - Following the announcement, Intel's stock surged over 22%, marking its largest single-day gain since October 1987, while Nvidia's stock rose approximately 3.5% [6] - Novo Nordisk's stock increased by over 6% due to significant weight loss results from its drug semaglutide [11]

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 0.5%, aligning with market expectations, indicating a moderate recovery in the Japanese economy with stable trends in exports and production [2] - The core CPI inflation, excluding fresh food, is expected to remain subdued due to economic slowdown, despite a gradual decline in the impact of rising food prices [2] - There were two dissenting votes for a rate hike, suggesting a shift in sentiment regarding inflation risks, with calls to raise the rate by 25 basis points to 0.75% [3] Group 2 - The Bank of Japan announced plans to begin selling its ETF and J-REIT holdings, with an annual target of approximately 330 billion yen for ETFs and 5 billion yen for J-REITs [4] - The central bank's ETF holdings have reached 35 trillion yen since it began purchasing ETFs in 2010, particularly increasing after the monetary easing in 2013 [5] - Following the announcement, the market reacted with a decline in the USD/JPY exchange rate and a rise in the 10-year Japanese government bond yield by 4 basis points to 1.635% [6][9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the A - share major indices closed generally lower. Although the economic data in August was under pressure, the financial data showed that residents were shifting from excess savings to increased consumption. The RMB was under short - term pressure due to Powell's hawkish remarks, but the dot - plot indicated two more rate cuts this year, which would reduce the RMB depreciation pressure and provide room for domestic policy easing. Therefore, stock indices still have long - term upward potential, and it is recommended to buy on dips with a light position [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Contract Prices**: The prices of IF, IH, IC, and IM main and sub - main contracts all declined. For example, the IF main contract (2509) dropped from the previous level to 4487.2, a decrease of 61.2 [2]. - **Futures Spreads**: All spreads such as IF - IH, IC - IF, etc. showed a downward trend. For instance, the IF - IH monthly contract spread decreased by 20.6 to 1576.4 [2]. - **Futures Seasonal - Monthly Spreads**: Most of the seasonal - monthly spreads for IF, IH, IC, and IM decreased, except for the IH seasonal - monthly spread which increased slightly [2]. - **Futures Position Holdings**: The net positions of the top 20 in IF, IH, IC, and IM all decreased. For example, the IF top 20 net position decreased by 3206 to - 24,119 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Spot Index Prices**: The prices of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, Shanghai 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 all declined. For example, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 dropped by 52.9 to 4498.11 [2]. - **Contract Basis**: The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM main contracts all decreased [2]. 3.3 Market Sentiment - **Trading Volume and Balance**: A - share trading volume increased by 7637.19 billion yuan to 31,666.43 billion yuan, and the margin trading balance increased by 127.92 billion yuan to 24,054.44 billion yuan [2]. - **North - bound Trading and Repurchase**: North - bound trading volume increased slightly, and the reverse repurchase operation volume increased while the maturity volume decreased [2]. - **Other Indicators**: The proportion of rising stocks decreased, the Shibor increased, the closing price of the IO at - the - money call option decreased, the closing price of the IO at - the - money put option increased, and other indicators showed different trends [2]. 3.4 Market Strength - Weakness Analysis - The overall A - share market, technical, and capital aspects all showed a weakening trend in the Wind market strength - weakness analysis [2]. 3.5 Industry News - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points for the first time this year and after a 9 - month pause. The A - share major indices closed generally lower, with small and medium - cap stocks outperforming large - cap blue - chip stocks. The domestic economic data in August was under pressure, and the M1 - M2 gap narrowed significantly [2].