华尔街风暴：美联储内讧、特朗普怒火与科技股崩盘 2025年8月21日凌晨，全球金融市场经历了一场惊心动魄的剧变。起因是美联储发布的一份鹰派会议纪要，它如同一颗重磅炸弹，瞬间引爆了市场的恐慌情 绪。短短四天内，标准普尔500指数蒸发了高达一万亿美元的市值，而科技巨头英伟达更是首当其冲，单日暴跌4%，市值缩水超过惊人的1.1万亿元人民 币。 几乎在同一时刻，前总统特朗普也在社交媒体上掀起了一场舆论风暴，他措辞严厉地怒斥美联储理事库克，指控其涉嫌房贷欺诈，并要求她"必须立即辞 职"。 前所未有的裂痕：美联储内部的权力斗争 这份引发市场动荡的7月会议纪要，揭露了美联储内部前所未有的深刻裂痕。在19名参会者中，只有理事沃勒和鲍曼两人投票支持降息，其余所有官员都坚 持维持利率在4.25?%的高位。这是自1993年以来，首次出现如此多理事公开反对利率决议的罕见情况。多数官员坚信，"通胀风险远大于就业风险"，并特别 警告特朗普政府的关税政策可能导致物价"长期化"，因为企业正将关税成本转嫁给消费者，而其全面影响尚未完全显现。 纪要发布后，恐慌情绪迅速蔓延，纳斯达克指数连续两日暴跌，美元汇率跳水，而避险资产黄金则暴涨30美元，交 ...

凯投宏观分析师Paul Ashworth写道："美联储7月会议纪要显示，除了两名希望在7月降息的理事投反对 票外，其他美联储官员普遍认同维持利率不变。就这一点而言，这对9月会议来说是一个略偏鹰派的信 号。但由于纪要的时间早于惨淡的7月就业报告，因此很难从纪要中获得太多关于未来的线索。鉴于后 续发布的数据，这份纪要显然已经过时，美联储主席鲍威尔本周在杰克逊霍尔的演讲，应该会更深入地 揭示9月降息是否已成定局。" 来源：滚动播报 ...

Market Overview - The S&P 500 index reached a new all-time high for the third consecutive trading day, while the Dow Jones and Nasdaq experienced slight declines [1] - The latest PPI data in the U.S. exceeded expectations, leading traders to reduce bets on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve next month [1] - The two-year Treasury yield rose by two basis points to 3.69%, reversing earlier declines [1] U.S. Economic Indicators - The PPI increased by 0.9% month-over-month and 3.3% year-over-year, marking the highest inflation rate in three years, driven by a surge in service costs [6] - Initial jobless claims decreased by 3,000 to 224,000, indicating that employers are reluctant to lay off workers [7] - The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage fell to 6.58%, the lowest since October of the previous year [8] Company-Specific News - Berkshire Hathaway reduced its stake in Apple by 20 million shares while establishing new positions in UnitedHealth and Nucor [8] - Hillhouse Capital's HHLR Advisors reported a total market value of $3.105 billion, with over 90% in Chinese stocks, highlighting a strong preference for quality Chinese assets [9] - The Trump administration is negotiating a potential investment in Intel to support its domestic manufacturing efforts [10] - Apple Watch's blood oxygen tracking feature has returned to the U.S. market after a legal dispute, now allowing data to be displayed on paired iPhones [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core View - On July 30, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures rose and then fell during the session. The trading volume was 792,909 lots (+48,749), and the open interest was 272,753 lots (-27,867). The spot market had weak trading, and the basis premium increased. The price of spodumene concentrate decreased, while the mica price remained flat. Last week, lithium carbonate production decreased. In terms of downstream demand, the production of lithium iron phosphate increased, and the production scheduling of ternary materials rose. In June, the production scheduling of lithium cobalt oxide and lithium manganate decreased, and the production of power batteries increased last week. In terms of terminal demand, although the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales continued in June, the sales volume decreased month - on - month, and the 3C shipments were average. The production scheduling of energy - storage batteries increased in June. In terms of inventory, the registered warehouse receipts were 12,276 (+0) tons, the social inventory was tight, smelters destocked, and downstream and others restocked. Overall, the commodity sentiment fluctuated greatly, and the exchange's position limit cooled the market. It is expected that the short - term lithium carbonate price will fluctuate widely. Operationally, it is recommended to hold put options [3] Summary by Relevant Data Futures Market Data - **Prices**: The closing prices of the near - month contract, the first - continuous contract, the second - continuous contract, and the third - continuous contract of lithium carbonate futures were 70,260 yuan/ton, 70,600 yuan/ton, 70,580 yuan/ton, and 70,580 yuan/ton respectively on July 30, 2025. Compared with the previous day, the near - month contract decreased by 200 yuan/ton, the first - continuous contract decreased by 240 yuan/ton, the second - continuous contract increased by 20 yuan/ton, and the third - continuous contract increased by 20 yuan/ton [3] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the active contract of lithium carbonate futures was 792,909 lots (+48,749), and the open interest was 272,753 lots (-27,867) [3] - **Inventory**: The inventory was 12,276 tons, with no change compared with the previous day [3] - **Spreads**: The spreads of near - month - first - continuous, first - continuous - second - continuous, and second - continuous - third - continuous were - 340 yuan/ton, 20 yuan/ton, and 0 yuan/ton respectively on July 30, 2025. Compared with the previous day, the near - month - first - continuous spread increased by 40 yuan/ton, the first - continuous - second - continuous spread decreased by 260 yuan/ton, and the second - continuous - third - continuous spread remained unchanged [3] - **Basis**: The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price - lithium carbonate active contract closing price) was 2,350 yuan/ton on July 30, 2025, an increase of 40 yuan/ton compared with the previous day [3] Spot Market Data - **Lithium Ore Prices**: The average price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 776 US dollars/ton on July 30, 2025, a decrease of 1 US dollar/ton compared with the previous day. The average prices of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%), lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%), phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li2O: 6% - 7%), and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li2O: 7% - 8%) were 1,140 yuan/ton, 1,775 yuan/ton, 5,675 yuan/ton, and 6,625 yuan/ton respectively, with 0, 0, 75, and 125 yuan/ton changes compared with the previous day [3] - **Lithium Compound Prices**: The average prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%/domestic), industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%/domestic), battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5%/domestic, coarse - grained), battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5%/domestic, micronized), and other lithium compounds had different changes on July 30, 2025, compared with the previous day. For example, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 200 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 150 yuan/ton [3] - **Price Spreads**: The spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and CIF China - Japan - South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide were - 7,480 yuan/ton, 2,100 yuan/ton, and - 6,316.85 yuan/ton respectively on July 30, 2025, with 250, - 50, and - 107.96 yuan/ton changes compared with the previous day [3] Inventory Data - The total SMM lithium carbonate inventory on July 24, 2025, was 143,170 tons, an increase of 550 tons compared with the previous week. Among them, the inventory of smelters was 55,385 tons (-2,654 tons compared with the previous week), the inventory of downstream was 42,815 tons (+1,544 tons compared with the previous week), and the inventory of others was 44,970 tons (+1,660 tons compared with the previous week) [3] Industry News - The Federal Reserve maintained the interest rate at 4.25% - 4.50% unchanged, and governors Waller and Bowman voted against and advocated for an interest rate cut [3] - On July 30, 2025, Pilbara Minerals announced that its spodumene concentrate production in the fourth fiscal quarter was 221,300 tons, and the sales volume reached 216,000 tons [3] - Non - futures company members or customers are restricted in the single - day opening positions of lithium carbonate futures contracts. For example, the single - day opening position in the LC2509 contract shall not exceed 500 lots, and in the LC2510, LC2511, LC2512, LC2601 contracts, it shall not exceed 2,000 lots [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate unchanged despite internal disagreements and external pressures, reflecting a cautious approach to current economic conditions [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Decision - The Federal Open Market Committee voted 9 to 2 to keep the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25%-4.5% [1] - This decision impacts the cost of overnight borrowing among banks, influencing the broader economic funding landscape [1] Group 2: Internal Disagreements - Two Federal Reserve officials, Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller, opposed the decision, advocating for a rate cut due to controlled inflation and a potentially weakening labor market [1] - This marks the first instance since late 1993 where multiple officials voted against the interest rate decision [1]

FOMC Statement - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to pass the interest rate decision with a voting ratio of 9-2, with Governors Bowman and Waller likely voting against it [1] - There is an anticipation of minimal substantive changes in the wording, possibly simplifying the expression of economic uncertainty and acknowledging the slowdown in economic growth during the first half of the year [1] - The balance sheet reduction is likely to remain unchanged, with monthly reductions of $50 billion in U.S. Treasuries and $35 billion in MBS [1] Interest Rate Outlook - There is a focus on how to interpret the "two rate cuts" implied by the June dot plot and whether there will be any clues regarding a potential rate cut in September [1] - The emphasis on economic data is expected to continue, maintaining a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting decision-making communication style [1] - The stance on inflation and tariffs may remain cautious, reiterating the commitment to price stability; if tariffs are highlighted as an upward risk to inflation, it could indicate a more hawkish tone than anticipated [1] Term and Independence - In response to frequent pressures from Trump, it is likely that there will be no substantial response, with a reaffirmation of maintaining independence and professionalism during the term [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the interest rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5% for the fifth consecutive meeting, with a 97.4% probability of no change in July and a 34.6% probability of maintaining rates in September [1][6] - President Trump has called for a rate cut, stating "the Federal Reserve must lower rates" just hours before the Fed's decision [1][6] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index has declined by 1% as of the report time, indicating weakness in Chinese concept stocks [1][7] Group 2 - New Oriental's Q4 net profit has decreased by 73.7% year-on-year, attributed to a $60.3 million goodwill impairment, despite a 9.4% increase in net revenue to $1.243 billion [9][11] - For the fiscal year 2025, New Oriental's revenue is projected to grow by 13.6% to $4.9 billion, with a net profit increase of 20.1% to $372 million [11] - The company expects revenue for fiscal year 2026 to be between $5.15 billion and $5.39 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5% to 10% [11]

Group 1 - Key Point 1: The Bank of Japan is set to announce its interest rate decision, which could impact market expectations and investor sentiment [1] - Key Point 2: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will release its interest rate decision, followed by a press conference from Chairman Jerome Powell, indicating potential shifts in U.S. monetary policy [1] - Key Point 3: China's official manufacturing PMI for July will be released, providing insights into the health of the manufacturing sector and economic activity [1] Group 2 - Key Point 1: Switzerland's actual retail sales year-on-year for June will be reported, which may reflect consumer spending trends in the region [1] - Key Point 2: The press conference by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will be closely watched for insights on future monetary policy direction [1] - Key Point 3: France's preliminary CPI month-on-month for July will be released, which is crucial for understanding inflation trends in the Eurozone [1] Group 3 - Key Point 1: Germany's seasonally adjusted unemployment figures for July will be published, providing a snapshot of the labor market [1] - Key Point 2: The Eurozone's unemployment rate for June will be reported, which is essential for assessing economic stability in the region [1] - Key Point 3: The Challenger Job Cut Report for July will indicate the number of layoffs in the U.S., offering insights into employment trends [1] Group 4 - Key Point 1: Germany's preliminary CPI month-on-month for July will be released, which is important for gauging inflationary pressures [1] - Key Point 2: Canada's GDP month-on-month for May will be reported, providing insights into economic growth [1] - Key Point 3: The U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending July 26 will be published, which is a key indicator of labor market health [1] Group 5 - Key Point 1: The U.S. core PCE price index year-on-year for June will be released, which is a critical measure of inflation [1] - Key Point 2: The U.S. personal spending month-on-month for June will be reported, indicating consumer behavior and economic activity [1] - Key Point 3: The U.S. labor cost index quarter-on-quarter for Q2 will be published, which is important for understanding wage pressures [1] Group 6 - Key Point 1: The U.S. core PCE price index month-on-month for June will be released, providing further insights into inflation trends [1] - Key Point 2: The Chicago PMI for July will be published, which is a key indicator of manufacturing activity in the U.S. [1] - Key Point 3: The EIA natural gas inventory for the week ending July 25 will be reported, which is significant for energy market dynamics [1]

Core Viewpoint - The financial market is anticipating the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with expectations of maintaining the current rate range of 4.25% to 4.5% for the fifth consecutive meeting [1][2]. Interest Rate Expectations - According to CME's "FedWatch," the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining rates in July is 97.4%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 2.6%. For September, the probability of maintaining rates is 34.6%, with a cumulative 25 basis point cut probability of 63.7% and a 50 basis point cut at 1.7% [2]. Market Reactions - Prior to the Federal Reserve's announcement, President Trump reiterated calls for rate cuts, stating "the Fed must lower rates" [3][9]. - As of 23:00, U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index down by 1% [4][11]. - The U.S. dollar experienced a sharp increase, while gold prices fell below $3,300 [5][6]. Company Performance - New Oriental's stock saw a decline of over 10% at one point, with a subsequent narrowing of losses to 4.58%. The company reported a 73.7% year-on-year decrease in net profit for Q4 of fiscal year 2025 [10][13]. - New Oriental's Q4 revenue increased by 9.4% to $1.243 billion, but the significant drop in net profit was primarily due to a $60.3 million goodwill impairment. Excluding the Oriental Selection business, core education revenue grew by 18.7% to $1.09 billion [13][15]. - For the fiscal year 2025, New Oriental's revenue grew by 13.6% to $4.9 billion, with net profit increasing by 20.1% to $372 million. The company expects revenue for fiscal year 2026 to be between $5.15 billion and $5.39 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5% to 10% [15]. Sector Trends - The automotive sector showed weakness, with companies like Li Auto and NIO experiencing declines of over 3% [16].

#报告 高盛前瞻7月美联储利率决议 https://t.co/FNzCD3DgA5None (@None):None ...