Group A: ETF Holdings - The article discusses the changes in ETF holdings, indicating a significant increase in holdings in mid-October followed by a series of reductions, reflecting institutional panic as the market declined [4][5]. - In November, there has been a slight but continuous increase in ETF holdings, suggesting renewed confidence in gold among investors [4][5]. Group B: Speculative Sentiment Report - The speculative sentiment in the gold market has remained skewed towards bearish, with reports indicating a consistent 60-40 or even 70-30 split, suggesting a lack of bullish momentum [8][9]. - For gold to initiate a new upward trend, a shift back to a more bullish sentiment (at least a 70-30 split) is necessary [9]. Group C: Interest Rate Decisions and Policy Changes - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting revealed a consensus among officials leaning towards hawkish policies, with concerns about inflation and public trust in the Fed [10][11]. - The Fed has decided to end its balance sheet reduction earlier than expected, which may signal a shift from a tightening to a more accommodative monetary policy [12][14]. Group D: Non-Farm Payroll Insights - The article notes that the unemployment rate has remained around 4.3%, with expectations that the upcoming non-farm payroll data will not be particularly strong due to ongoing tariff issues [16][19]. - The impact of the non-farm payroll data on the market is highlighted, with specific thresholds indicating potential market reactions for both the dollar and gold [19]. Group E: December Layout - The article suggests that adjustments are ongoing, with a cautious approach recommended for participation in the market due to high volatility and increased risk [22][23].

Group 1 - The new president of the Liberal Democratic Party, Sanae Takaichi, has clarified the direction of "active fiscal" policy, emphasizing the need to lower gasoline taxes and support loss-making companies in raising employee salaries [2][4] - Takaichi reiterated her commitment to "responsible active fiscal" policies during her campaign, advocating for the early cancellation of the current gasoline tax rate of approximately 25 yen per liter and exploring increased subsidies for local governments to address rising prices [4][6] - Takaichi expressed a proactive attitude towards collaboration between the government and the Bank of Japan, indicating a preference for continued monetary easing to stimulate demand and manage inflation [6][8] Group 2 - The potential cancellation of both gasoline and light oil tax rates could result in a revenue loss of approximately 1.5 trillion yen annually, raising concerns about funding sources for proposed policies [6][8] - Takaichi's proposal to increase the basic deduction for income tax could further expand fiscal spending, leading to risks of market sell-offs if financial markets perceive a loosening of Japan's fiscal policy [6][8] - The need for cooperation with opposition parties to pass the supplementary budget and ensure the smooth passage of the 2026 budget is critical, as the current special public bond law will expire in 2025 [8]

Core Viewpoint - The nomination of Stephen Miran to fill the vacancy on the Federal Reserve Board may influence future interest rate policies, with expectations leaning towards a more accommodative monetary stance [1][4] Group 1: Nomination Details - Stephen Miran, a Harvard-trained economist with extensive experience in fiscal and trade policy, has been nominated to temporarily fill the Federal Reserve Board vacancy left by a departing member [1] - The previous member's term was set to end in January next year, and Miran's confirmation could take several weeks to two months [4] Group 2: Market Implications - If Miran's appointment strengthens market expectations for future interest rate cuts, the US dollar may face downward pressure, while non-USD currencies like the euro and yen could gain support [4] - The recent Federal Reserve meeting saw a rare occurrence of multiple board members voting against maintaining the interest rate, indicating potential shifts in policy dynamics [1] Group 3: Future Considerations - Miran's background and policy orientation may provide new insights for the foreign exchange market, influencing long-term interest rate curves and the yields on dollar assets [4] - Investors are advised to monitor Miran's confirmation process, public statements, and economic data changes to adjust their foreign exchange trading strategies accordingly [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan is close to achieving its inflation target but has not fully reached it, thus it needs to maintain its accommodative monetary policy [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Monetary Policy - The Bank of Japan's committee member Takeda Sho states that the current monetary policy remains necessary due to the incomplete achievement of the inflation target [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan should maintain its accommodative monetary policy stance to support economic activity [1] Group 1 - The current monetary policy is aimed at fostering economic growth [1] - The Bank of Japan's commitment to a loose monetary policy is crucial for sustaining economic momentum [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of stop-loss strategies in trading, suggesting that having trading principles is crucial for success [1] - The gold market experienced a rebound on the last trading day of June, closing at 3302 after reaching a low of 3245 earlier in the day [3] - The monthly performance of gold shows a long upper shadow for three consecutive months, indicating significant selling pressure above [5] Group 2 - The upcoming non-farm payroll data will be released earlier due to the Independence Day holiday, with market focus on the July 9 tariff deadline set by Trump [7] - Short-term trading strategies suggest that after the recent bullish movement, traders should watch for potential pullbacks, with key resistance levels identified at 3322-25 and 3335-40 [8] - The silver market continues to align with the trends observed in gold and oil, with ongoing analysis and guidance available for traders [9]

Economic Performance - In May, industrial added value increased by 5.8% year-on-year, slightly above the consensus forecast of 5.7%[4] - Retail sales of consumer goods grew by 6.4% year-on-year in May, exceeding expectations and up 1.3 percentage points from April[10] - Fixed asset investment showed a cumulative year-on-year growth of 3.7% from January to May, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous period[18] Sector Analysis - Manufacturing investment from January to May rose by 8.5% year-on-year, while real estate investment fell by 10.7%[21] - The cumulative year-on-year decline in real estate new construction area was 22.8%, with completed area down by 17.3%[22] - High-tech industries saw a cumulative year-on-year growth of 9.5% in industrial added value from January to May[6] Policy Implications - The importance of stabilizing domestic demand is emphasized, especially with external uncertainties remaining high[30] - Active fiscal policies are being accelerated, with government bond financing continuing to grow significantly[30] - The government is focusing on measures to stabilize the real estate market and boost consumer spending[30] Risks - Potential risks include a resurgence of global inflation and a faster-than-expected economic slowdown in Europe and the U.S.[30]

Core Viewpoint - Paul Tudor Jones, a legendary investor managing a $16 billion macro hedge fund, predicts a significant depreciation of the US dollar, potentially by 10%, due to substantial cuts in short-term interest rates in the coming year [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - Jones identifies a steepening yield curve as a signal of changing economic structures, indicating that the gap between long-term and short-term interest rates is widening [3]. - Historical data suggests that fluctuations in the yield curve often lead to volatility in the currency market, impacting the value of the dollar as a global reserve currency [3]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Implications - The anticipated adjustment in US monetary policy is seen as a key driver for the dollar's depreciation, with Jones asserting that a significant reduction in short-term rates will diminish the dollar's attractiveness [3][4]. - A potential appointment of a "super dove" as the new Federal Reserve Chair could further exacerbate the situation by promoting loose monetary policies, aligning with Trump's growth agenda [4]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has already declined nearly 8% since 2025, marking the worst start since its inception in 2005, largely attributed to the trade wars initiated by the Trump administration [4]. - Market participants are preparing for further dollar weakness, as options traders actively position themselves for this anticipated decline [5]. Group 4: Broader Economic Impact - A weaker dollar could stimulate US exports, enhancing competitiveness in international markets, but may also lead to higher import prices and inflation domestically [5]. - The depreciation of the dollar is expected to drive capital flows to other countries, potentially causing asset price volatility in emerging markets and affecting international commodity prices [5].

Economic Growth Overview - Australia's GDP grew by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter and 1.3% year-on-year in Q1 2025, showing a decline from the previous quarter's growth of 0.6% [1] - Per capita GDP experienced a negative growth of 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, contrasting with a 0.1% growth in the previous quarter [1] Factors Affecting Economic Performance - Public sector spending has significantly dragged down economic growth, reaching the highest level of detriment since Q3 2017 [1] - Extreme weather events have suppressed domestic final demand and exports, particularly impacting the mining, tourism, and shipping industries [1][2] Consumer and Investment Trends - Household consumption increased by 0.4%, driven mainly by spending on essential items such as food and rent [1] - Private sector investment rose by 0.7%, primarily from residential, new construction, and engineering projects, while public sector investment fell by 2% after reaching a record high in the previous quarter [1] Savings and Income - The household savings rate increased to 5.2%, with disposable income growing by 2.4% [1] Export Challenges - Commodity exports, particularly coal and liquefied natural gas, were negatively impacted by adverse weather affecting production and shipping [2] - The tourism services sector underperformed, with international student numbers growing below average and a decline in per capita spending by students [2] Economic Outlook - Experts suggest that despite the impact of extreme weather, the underlying economic fundamentals remain weak, with low consumer spending and business investment [2] - There is a call for more accommodative monetary policy to stimulate the economy, with potential early initiation of a rate cut cycle if the Reserve Bank of Australia acknowledges the trends of economic slowdown and declining inflation [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England's MPC member, Taylor, indicates that the risks of a downward economic outlook are increasing, necessitating a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy. Inflation is not driven by supply and demand pressures [1] Group 1 - Taylor highlights the need for a more lenient monetary policy due to the rising risks associated with the global economic situation [1] - The current inflationary pressures are not attributed to supply and demand dynamics, suggesting other underlying factors at play [1]