北京时间1月8日晚间消息，美国财政部长贝森特于表态，强调本届政府希望下调利率的立场，称降息是 未来经济增长的关键所在。 贝森特发表演讲称，支持美国总统特朗普的经济议程，并指出宽松的货币政策将为未来的经济增长铺平 道路。 据一名政府内部消息人士提供的演讲稿节选，贝森特表示："降息将对每位明尼苏达人的生活产生切实 影响，这是推动经济实现更强增长的唯一缺失要素。正因如此，美联储不应再拖延行动。" 美联储在2025年最后四个月内连续三次降息，累计降息幅度达75个基点，将基准利率下调至3.5%— 3.75%的区间。 不过，市场预计今年的降息步伐将显著放缓：市场定价显示仅会降息两次，而美联储官员最新的预测则 指向仅一次降息。 这一前景中的一个不确定因素是，美联储今年将迎来新任主席，而贝森特正主导这一人选的遴选工作。 现任主席鲍威尔的任期将于5月届满，财政部长已将候选人名单缩减至五人。白宫国家经济委员会主任 库德洛与前美联储理事凯文・沃什是目前的两大热门人选。 尽管降息可能存在再度推高通胀的风险，但也有助于为放缓的劳动力市场提供支撑。 贝森特发表演讲称，支持美国总统特朗普的经济议程，并指出宽松的货币政策将为未来的经济增长铺 ...

2025.12.17 周三 文/南篱 各位好，我是南篱，一个财经人。 在大家忽略的角落里，白银重演了1979年的上涨。 12月份，比黄金更不消停的居然是白银，今天黄金还没怎么动弹呢，白银往上涨了4%了！行情上更是一度触及到了66.5的高位，可谓是历史性的涨幅了。 把年线拉出来看，上一段这种涨幅，是1979年的上涨，1980年还有一些延续。之后是大银下跌，从此白银开启了失落的十多年。现在市场的看涨真无异于是 有些"造神"的可能性在了，在文章的开始，也劝各位一句，这种情况，反手押注顶部肯定是"送人头"，但是追到不知何时，追多者就有可能被当作接盘者 了。 每一次的跟随，都需要慎之又慎。话说回来，白银今天4%的涨幅，黄金才多少，1%左右，此时还有收缩，怎么黄金就萎靡了呢？ 下方要去关注的除了三角形的下轨之外，激进一些的支撑，还有小时图的布林带中轨一带，大概是4310。结合到成交量密集区的实体部分是在4301。所以 说，4301—10成为今天的临时分水岭。多空轮转并不强，务必系好安全带。 至于上方破了位之后，那就破了位之后再说吧，破位之后呢，是要往前高去发起冲击的，届时再谈。 免责声明：文章不作为建议仅供参考，具体交易 ...

114 120 2 主笔王晓莹 没否认也没确认 围绕降息问题,特朗普与现任美联储主席鲍威尔的矛盾早已公开化。尽管未能如愿"炒掉"鲍威尔,但特朗 普早在今年8月就提过一份下一任美联储主席候选人名单,分别是凯文.哈西特、前美联储理事凯文.沃什 和现任美联储理事克里斯托弗.沃勒。 g 距离美国联邦储备委员会(美联储)现任主席杰罗姆.鲍威尔卸任还有半年时间,美国总统特朗普就迫不及 待地在12月2日年内最后一次内阁会议上预告,可能在明年1月初公布下一任美联储主席提名人选。关于 鲍威尔的继任者,各方猜测过几个名字,而特朗普已表示"做好了决定"。目前,白宫国家经济委员会主任凯 文.哈西特是"头号候选人"。 哈西特执掌过的白宫经济顾问委员会由三位学术型经济学家组成,主要负责白宫内部经济分析,包括联络 多个联邦政府部门向白宫汇报美国经济数据情况、向国会提交总统年度经济报告等。他现在领导的白宫 国家经济委员会则是总统行政办公室的一部分,主要职能是就美国和全球经济政策向总统提供政策建议, 负责协调和落实总统提出的经济政策目标,其政策决定可能直接影响美国经济。 有媒体称,哈西特满足特朗普用人的两大标准——忠诚且能得到市场认可。很多与 ...

**四、全球市场屏息以待** 对于特朗普可能的提名人选，市场已经做出了反应。当哈塞特可能获得提名的消息传出后，美国10年期国债收益率曾一度跌破 4%，这表明市场普遍预期未来可能采取更为宽松的货币政策。此外，美国财政部长贝森特此前表示，特朗普极有可能在圣诞节假期前宣布提名人选。这个 时间表与特朗普的最新表态相吻合，意味着未来几周内，全球金融市场将迎来这一重大消息的正式发布。 **五、更深层次的战略考量** 特朗普此次推动美联储主席更替，看似是一项常规的人事调整，实则背后隐藏着更深层的战略意图。分析人士认为，特朗普 如此急切地推动美联储领导层的更替，除了美国政府面临的不断上升的债务压力需要低利率环境的支持，还与特朗普政府推动的产业回流和制造业复兴计划 密切相关。宽松的货币政策无疑将为这些计划提供支持。在这一宏观背景下，选择一位与自己理念相符的美联储主席，对于特朗普实现其经济政策目标至关 重要。 一则来自空军一号的重磅声明，让全球金融市场瞬间紧张了起来。 **一、空军一号上的震撼声明** 在美国时间11月30日，特朗普总统在返回华盛顿的专机上，向随行记者透露了一条令人震惊的消息：我知道我要选谁，是 的，我们会宣布这 ...

Group A: ETF Holdings - The article discusses the changes in ETF holdings, indicating a significant increase in holdings in mid-October followed by a series of reductions, reflecting institutional panic as the market declined [4][5]. - In November, there has been a slight but continuous increase in ETF holdings, suggesting renewed confidence in gold among investors [4][5]. Group B: Speculative Sentiment Report - The speculative sentiment in the gold market has remained skewed towards bearish, with reports indicating a consistent 60-40 or even 70-30 split, suggesting a lack of bullish momentum [8][9]. - For gold to initiate a new upward trend, a shift back to a more bullish sentiment (at least a 70-30 split) is necessary [9]. Group C: Interest Rate Decisions and Policy Changes - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting revealed a consensus among officials leaning towards hawkish policies, with concerns about inflation and public trust in the Fed [10][11]. - The Fed has decided to end its balance sheet reduction earlier than expected, which may signal a shift from a tightening to a more accommodative monetary policy [12][14]. Group D: Non-Farm Payroll Insights - The article notes that the unemployment rate has remained around 4.3%, with expectations that the upcoming non-farm payroll data will not be particularly strong due to ongoing tariff issues [16][19]. - The impact of the non-farm payroll data on the market is highlighted, with specific thresholds indicating potential market reactions for both the dollar and gold [19]. Group E: December Layout - The article suggests that adjustments are ongoing, with a cautious approach recommended for participation in the market due to high volatility and increased risk [22][23].

Group 1 - The new president of the Liberal Democratic Party, Sanae Takaichi, has clarified the direction of "active fiscal" policy, emphasizing the need to lower gasoline taxes and support loss-making companies in raising employee salaries [2][4] - Takaichi reiterated her commitment to "responsible active fiscal" policies during her campaign, advocating for the early cancellation of the current gasoline tax rate of approximately 25 yen per liter and exploring increased subsidies for local governments to address rising prices [4][6] - Takaichi expressed a proactive attitude towards collaboration between the government and the Bank of Japan, indicating a preference for continued monetary easing to stimulate demand and manage inflation [6][8] Group 2 - The potential cancellation of both gasoline and light oil tax rates could result in a revenue loss of approximately 1.5 trillion yen annually, raising concerns about funding sources for proposed policies [6][8] - Takaichi's proposal to increase the basic deduction for income tax could further expand fiscal spending, leading to risks of market sell-offs if financial markets perceive a loosening of Japan's fiscal policy [6][8] - The need for cooperation with opposition parties to pass the supplementary budget and ensure the smooth passage of the 2026 budget is critical, as the current special public bond law will expire in 2025 [8]

Core Viewpoint - The nomination of Stephen Miran to fill the vacancy on the Federal Reserve Board may influence future interest rate policies, with expectations leaning towards a more accommodative monetary stance [1][4] Group 1: Nomination Details - Stephen Miran, a Harvard-trained economist with extensive experience in fiscal and trade policy, has been nominated to temporarily fill the Federal Reserve Board vacancy left by a departing member [1] - The previous member's term was set to end in January next year, and Miran's confirmation could take several weeks to two months [4] Group 2: Market Implications - If Miran's appointment strengthens market expectations for future interest rate cuts, the US dollar may face downward pressure, while non-USD currencies like the euro and yen could gain support [4] - The recent Federal Reserve meeting saw a rare occurrence of multiple board members voting against maintaining the interest rate, indicating potential shifts in policy dynamics [1] Group 3: Future Considerations - Miran's background and policy orientation may provide new insights for the foreign exchange market, influencing long-term interest rate curves and the yields on dollar assets [4] - Investors are advised to monitor Miran's confirmation process, public statements, and economic data changes to adjust their foreign exchange trading strategies accordingly [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan is close to achieving its inflation target but has not fully reached it, thus it needs to maintain its accommodative monetary policy [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Monetary Policy - The Bank of Japan's committee member Takeda Sho states that the current monetary policy remains necessary due to the incomplete achievement of the inflation target [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan should maintain its accommodative monetary policy stance to support economic activity [1] Group 1 - The current monetary policy is aimed at fostering economic growth [1] - The Bank of Japan's commitment to a loose monetary policy is crucial for sustaining economic momentum [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of stop-loss strategies in trading, suggesting that having trading principles is crucial for success [1] - The gold market experienced a rebound on the last trading day of June, closing at 3302 after reaching a low of 3245 earlier in the day [3] - The monthly performance of gold shows a long upper shadow for three consecutive months, indicating significant selling pressure above [5] Group 2 - The upcoming non-farm payroll data will be released earlier due to the Independence Day holiday, with market focus on the July 9 tariff deadline set by Trump [7] - Short-term trading strategies suggest that after the recent bullish movement, traders should watch for potential pullbacks, with key resistance levels identified at 3322-25 and 3335-40 [8] - The silver market continues to align with the trends observed in gold and oil, with ongoing analysis and guidance available for traders [9]