Core Viewpoint - The nomination of Stephen Miran to fill the vacancy on the Federal Reserve Board may influence future interest rate policies, with expectations leaning towards a more accommodative monetary stance [1][4] Group 1: Nomination Details - Stephen Miran, a Harvard-trained economist with extensive experience in fiscal and trade policy, has been nominated to temporarily fill the Federal Reserve Board vacancy left by a departing member [1] - The previous member's term was set to end in January next year, and Miran's confirmation could take several weeks to two months [4] Group 2: Market Implications - If Miran's appointment strengthens market expectations for future interest rate cuts, the US dollar may face downward pressure, while non-USD currencies like the euro and yen could gain support [4] - The recent Federal Reserve meeting saw a rare occurrence of multiple board members voting against maintaining the interest rate, indicating potential shifts in policy dynamics [1] Group 3: Future Considerations - Miran's background and policy orientation may provide new insights for the foreign exchange market, influencing long-term interest rate curves and the yields on dollar assets [4] - Investors are advised to monitor Miran's confirmation process, public statements, and economic data changes to adjust their foreign exchange trading strategies accordingly [4]

日本央行审议委员高田创：日本接近实现日本央行的通胀目标，但尚未完全达成，因此仍需维持宽松的 货币政策。 ...

日本央行审议委员高田创：日本央行目前应通过维持其宽松的货币政策立场，支持经济活动。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of stop-loss strategies in trading, suggesting that having trading principles is crucial for success [1] - The gold market experienced a rebound on the last trading day of June, closing at 3302 after reaching a low of 3245 earlier in the day [3] - The monthly performance of gold shows a long upper shadow for three consecutive months, indicating significant selling pressure above [5] Group 2 - The upcoming non-farm payroll data will be released earlier due to the Independence Day holiday, with market focus on the July 9 tariff deadline set by Trump [7] - Short-term trading strategies suggest that after the recent bullish movement, traders should watch for potential pullbacks, with key resistance levels identified at 3322-25 and 3335-40 [8] - The silver market continues to align with the trends observed in gold and oil, with ongoing analysis and guidance available for traders [9]

Economic Performance - In May, industrial added value increased by 5.8% year-on-year, slightly above the consensus forecast of 5.7%[4] - Retail sales of consumer goods grew by 6.4% year-on-year in May, exceeding expectations and up 1.3 percentage points from April[10] - Fixed asset investment showed a cumulative year-on-year growth of 3.7% from January to May, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous period[18] Sector Analysis - Manufacturing investment from January to May rose by 8.5% year-on-year, while real estate investment fell by 10.7%[21] - The cumulative year-on-year decline in real estate new construction area was 22.8%, with completed area down by 17.3%[22] - High-tech industries saw a cumulative year-on-year growth of 9.5% in industrial added value from January to May[6] Policy Implications - The importance of stabilizing domestic demand is emphasized, especially with external uncertainties remaining high[30] - Active fiscal policies are being accelerated, with government bond financing continuing to grow significantly[30] - The government is focusing on measures to stabilize the real estate market and boost consumer spending[30] Risks - Potential risks include a resurgence of global inflation and a faster-than-expected economic slowdown in Europe and the U.S.[30]

KVB发现在全球金融市场剧烈波动的当下，华尔街传奇投资人、掌管着 160 亿美元规模宏观对冲基金 Tudor Investment Corp. 的保罗・都铎・琼斯（Paul Tudor Jones），向市场投下了一颗重磅炸弹。在周三 接受彭博电视专访时，这位 70 岁的投资界巨擘明确指出，随着短期利率的大幅下调，美元在明年极有可 能出现显著贬值，跌幅甚至可能高达 10%。 琼斯的判断并非空穴来风。他敏锐地捕捉到美国收益率曲线的变化趋势，认为收益率曲线的陡峭化，意 味着长期利率与短期利率之间的差距逐渐拉大，这一现象往往是经济结构发生变化的信号。从历史数据 来看，当收益率曲线出现类似变化时，货币市场通常会随之产生波动，而美元作为全球储备货币，其价 值变动会引发连锁反应。 琼斯进一步强调，美国货币政策的调整将是推动美元贬值的核心动力。"我们将在明年大幅下调短期利 率。" 他笃定地说道，在他看来，利率的大幅下调将直接削弱美元的吸引力。美元的价值与利率紧密相 连，高利率能够吸引全球资本流入美国市场，支撑美元走强；而利率的下降，使得美元资产的收益降 低，国际投资者可能会将资金转向其他收益率更高的资产和货币，从而导致美元的 ...

此外，商品出口拖累了整体经济增长，煤炭和液化天然气出口因恶劣天气对生产和航运造成的干扰而受 到严重影响；旅游服务出口表现不佳，一季度国际学生人数增幅低于平均水平，学生人均支出下降。 据澳大利亚广播公司报道，澳大利亚贝塔投资公司首席经济学家大卫·巴萨尼塞称，尽管极端天气等特 殊因素对GDP增长构成影响，但基本面仍显疲软，消费者支出和企业投资相对低迷。 责编：李磊、卢思宇 安永首席经济学家谢丽尔·墨菲认为，澳大利亚亟需更加宽松的货币政策来提振经济。如果澳大利亚储 备银行能确认经济放缓和通胀回落的趋势，降息周期可能将提前启动。（实习生 王旭） 澳大利亚统计局国民账户主管凯瑟琳·基南表示，一季度澳大利亚经济增长疲软。公共部门支出对经济 增长的拖累程度为2017年三季度以来的最高水平。极端天气事件抑制了澳国内最终需求和出口。采矿、 旅游和航运业受天气因素影响尤为显著。 报告指出，今年一季度政府整体支出保持平稳，原因在于州和地方政府削减了对家庭社会福利的投入。 家庭消费环比增长0.4%，主要由食品和房租等必需品支出拉动。私营部门投资环比增长0.7%，主要来 自住宅、新建建筑和工程项目的投入。相比之下，公共部门投资在去年四 ...

英国央行MPC委员泰勒：下行前景风险升温 需要采取更宽松的货币政策 智通财经5月30日电，英国央行MPC委员泰勒不是，由于全球形势的发展，下行前景风险升温，需要采 取更宽松的货币政策；通胀上升并非来自供需压力。 ...

韩国一家由政府资助的智库大幅下调了对该国今年的经济增长预期，这反映了特朗普的关税行动对这个 依赖贸易的国家所产生的影响，此时韩国总统竞选也正如火如荼地进行着。 在上月举行的党内电视辩论中，李在明特别强调若当选将在执政百日优先处理对美贸易谈判，并解释称 他的团队已经在做准备，以便能够迅速开展工作来解决这一问题。国民力量党的金文洙则表示，他将通 过扶持企业来重振经济。 韩国经济第一季度已现萎缩，表明在出口商尚未完全承受特朗普新关税冲击前，商业活动就已显露疲 态，这加剧了市场对该地区经济进一步恶化的担忧。 作为美国关键盟友的韩国此前被加征25%全面关税，4月初起暂时降至10%并维持90天。与其他国家一 样，韩国在汽车、钢铁和铝制品出口方面仍面临25%的惩罚性关税。 本周亚太经合组织会议在韩国济州岛举行期间，韩国贸易部长将力争与美国贸易代表杰米森.格里尔进 行磋商。 该智库表示："由于贸易环境不断恶化，我们的经济预计将放缓。实行宽松的货币政策是可取的，以减 轻国内外需求放缓可能导致的价格下行压力。" 韩国开发研究院在周三发布的半年度经济展望报告中表示，预计2025年韩国经济增速将降至0.8%，较 去年2%的增长率显著 ...

韩国央行：将继续实行宽松的货币政策立场。 ...