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非美交易逻辑重估
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又一次,全球市场的逻辑该变了!
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-07-31 09:26
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the previous consensus among global investors regarding the negative impact of Trump's tariff policies and fiscal deficits on the dollar and US stock market is facing a significant reversal [1] - The US economy showed an unexpected rebound in Q2, leading to a potential monthly increase of 3% for the dollar, marking the end of its downward trend in the first half of the year [1] - The US stock market is reaching new historical highs driven by the AI boom, contrasting with the cooling performance of European stocks, emerging market assets, and gold [4][10] Group 2 - The previously strong performance of European markets and emerging assets is declining, with gold experiencing its first three-month drop since November of last year [4] - The euro has fallen below 1.15 against the dollar, marking the largest monthly decline since May 2023, and the relative advantage of European stocks over US stocks has disappeared [4] - A shift in investor sentiment is occurring, with speculative funds that previously bet on dollar depreciation beginning to withdraw, as trend-following hedge funds close their short positions on US bonds and reduce exposure to European stocks [8][10] Group 3 - Analysts suggest that the "rest of the world trade" logic is being re-evaluated, indicating a potential turning point in global asset pricing [7] - The recent trade agreement framework between the US and Europe has alleviated some concerns about global trade tensions, impacting the premium logic associated with non-US assets [8] - There is a divergence in opinions regarding the sustainability of the dollar's strength, with some analysts predicting that the current trend may not last until the end of the year [9][10]