非美市场扩围
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出口缘何再“超预期”?
Xinda Securities· 2026-01-15 06:04
Group 1: Overseas Demand - In December 2025, China's exports increased by 6.6% year-on-year in USD terms, exceeding market expectations[5] - South Korea's export growth rose from 8.0% to 13.3% in December, while Vietnam's export growth improved from 15.2% to 23.8%[6] - China's manufacturing new export orders PMI rose by 1.4 percentage points to 49.0%, indicating increased export orders[6] Group 2: Port Container Throughput - December 2025 saw a decline in port container throughput to approximately 25.55 million TEUs, down from 33.53 million TEUs in November[17] - The average weight per container has been increasing from September to December 2025, suggesting a shift in export product structure towards more machinery and less labor-intensive products[19] - The decline in container throughput may mislead market perceptions regarding export performance[17] Group 3: Non-US Market Expansion - China's exports to ASEAN, EU, Russia, India, and the UK have shown both month-on-month and year-on-year increases, countering the high base effect from 2024[23] - The export ratio to the US and Japan has decreased, while the share to ASEAN and Hong Kong has increased, indicating a shift towards non-US markets[24] - The resilience of exports is expected to continue into 2026, potentially becoming a pillar of economic growth[25] Group 4: Risk Factors - Risks include insufficient growth policy measures, lower-than-expected global economic conditions, and unexpected trade frictions[27]