1月9日，光伏50ETF（159864）盘中涨超1.3%，技术迭代与海外需求成关注焦点。 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：刘畅 ） 浙商证券指出，电力设备行业受益于海外需求提升，尤其是对美出口战略乐观，贸易争端缓和背景 下，电力与新能源设备相关出口有望增长。光伏设备行业已进入磨底阶段，行业最差的时候已来， 但"降本增效、科技创新"仍是永恒主题，短期关注N型长晶、Xbc/0BB/HJT/TOPCon等技术迭代带来的 设备需求，中长期钙钛矿电池有望打开成长空间。光伏设备属于泛半导体行业，具备向泛半导体设备延 伸的潜力，未来转型将打开中长期发展空间。行业需关注"反内卷"政策推进及海外新能源产业本土化可 能带来的竞争格局变化风险。 光伏50ETF（159864）跟踪的是光伏产业指数（931151），该指数从市场中选取涉及上游硅材料、 中游电池片与组件制造以及下游电站建设运 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of the "space photovoltaic" theme in the photovoltaic equipment industry, highlighting its connection to US-China strategic competition and low-orbit resource contention, with fundamental catalysts expected to accelerate faster than emerging industries like nuclear fusion [1] - The European offshore wind demand is showing continuous improvement, with Poland's 3.4GW offshore wind tender being realized, and it is anticipated that the annual grid-connected scale of offshore wind in Europe will exceed 14GW by 2031-2032, leading to an acceleration in the release of future orders for piles, submarine cables, and wind turbines [1] - The price of lithium carbonate is surging, with spot prices breaking through 100,000 yuan/ton, and market inventory falling below 110,000 tons, indicating that prices are expected to remain strong in the short term [1] Group 2 - The photovoltaic 50 ETF (159864) tracks the photovoltaic industry index (931151), which selects listed companies involved in the entire solar photovoltaic power generation industry chain from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, including upstream raw material supply, midstream battery component manufacturing, and downstream power station construction and operation [1] - The index focuses on companies that are technologically advanced and competitive in the market, aiming to comprehensively reflect the overall development status and future trends of China's photovoltaic industry [1]

Export Data - In November 2025, China's exports reached $330.35 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 5.9%, significantly higher than the expected 3.0% and the previous month's decline of 1.1%[2][3][4] - The increase in exports is attributed to the fading high base effect and strong overseas demand, particularly in integrated circuits and automobiles, while the drag from labor-intensive products has lessened[3][4][14][16] Import Data - Imports in November 2025 totaled $218.67 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, up from 1.0% in October[2][18] - The rise in imports is driven by robust export-related intermediate goods demand and a low base effect from the previous year, with significant increases in copper and iron ore imports of 35.3% and 15.9%, respectively[18] Trade Balance - The trade surplus for November 2025 was $111.68 billion, an increase from the previous month's surplus of $90.07 billion[2] Regional Export Performance - Exports to the EU, Africa, and Latin America saw notable increases, with the EU experiencing a year-on-year growth of 14.8%[5][4] - In contrast, exports to the US declined by 28.6%, indicating ongoing challenges in US-China trade relations[5] Future Outlook - December's export growth may face challenges due to high base effects, but optimism remains for 2026 driven by global fiscal expansion and improved US-China trade relations[3][21] - The expected reduction in tariffs on certain products and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could further support China's exports to the US[21]

Group 1: Export Performance - In November 2025, China's exports reached $330.35 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 5.9%, significantly higher than the expected 3.0%[2] - The increase in export growth is attributed to the fading high base effect and strong overseas demand, particularly in integrated circuits and automobiles[3] - Exports to the EU, Africa, and Latin America showed notable increases, while exports to the US slightly declined by 28.6%[5] Group 2: Import Trends - November 2025 imports totaled $218.67 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, up from 1.0% in October[2] - The rise in imports is driven by robust export-related demand for intermediate goods and a low base effect from the previous year[18] - Key imports such as copper and iron ore saw significant growth, with copper imports increasing by 35.3% and iron ore by 15.9%[18] Group 3: Future Outlook - December's export growth may face challenges from high base effects, but optimism remains for overseas demand in 2026 due to global fiscal expansion and improved US-China trade relations[21] - The expected decrease in the fentanyl tariff rate from 20% to 10% is anticipated to narrow the year-on-year decline in exports to the US[21] - Continued strong demand for key mineral resources from Africa is expected to support capital goods exports from China[21]

Core Insights - The core driver of profit momentum in Japan's Q3 performance is overseas demand, while domestic sectors remain relatively weak [1][5][6] - Approximately 30% of companies in the Tokyo Stock Exchange Prime market have reported Q3 results, showing significant improvement over Q2, with revenue up 2.8%, operating profit up 11.0%, and net profit up 28.7% year-on-year [1][5] Sector Performance - The electronics and precision instruments sector, including companies like Hitachi, Fujitsu, NEC, and Advantest, has been a major contributor to net profit growth, alongside the power and gas sector [5] - In contrast, the automotive sector saw a net profit decline of 0.6%, and the food sector experienced a slight drop of 0.1% due to weak consumer demand [5] - Over 50% of companies exceeded Bloomberg consensus expectations, with export-oriented manufacturing firms outperforming domestic firms significantly (15.4% vs. 7.2%) [5][6] Market Expectations and Guidance - Export-oriented companies performed better partly due to conservative market expectations influenced by tariff impacts and uncertainties in the U.S. economy [6] - 52 companies have raised their full-year earnings guidance, although automotive manufacturers have yet to report, leaving tariff impacts unclear [6] - Japanese companies maintain a USD/JPY exchange rate assumption of 144 yen for FY2025, lower than the current market level of 154 yen, providing a buffer for overseas business profitability [6] Stock Buybacks - There are signs of recovery in stock buybacks, with TSE index constituents announcing a total of 0.7 trillion yen in buyback plans since October, matching levels from the same period in 2024 [6] - Advantest announced a buyback of 150 billion yen (2% of outstanding shares), while Recruit Holdings plans to buy back 250 billion yen (3% of outstanding shares) [6]

Core Viewpoint - Leading battery manufacturers are intensifying their investments in lithium iron phosphate (LFP) production, with CATL making a significant investment in a subsidiary of Fulin Precision, aiming to secure high-density LFP capacity in response to strong market demand [1] Industry Summary - Major LFP manufacturers are initiating a new round of capacity expansion driven by robust downstream market demand [1] - The current expansion trend is characterized by a shift from competing on price and scale to focusing on value and technology, reflecting a more rational approach in the industry [1] - Capacity planning is becoming increasingly globalized, indicating a strategic shift in the industry's operational focus [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury plans to issue a total of $183 billion in new interest-bearing government bonds, coinciding with a recently passed fiscal bill that significantly increases the national debt, raising market sensitivity towards debt outlook [1] - The auction of $69 billion in two-year Treasury bonds saw a yield of 3.955%, slightly lower than pre-auction market levels, indicating decent investor demand [1] - The auction is the first key benchmark debt issuance since Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating on May 16, raising concerns about the debt trajectory [1] Group 2 - Indirect bidders, primarily foreign central banks, accounted for 63.3% of the two-year bond auction, with total bids reaching $177.3 billion, 2.57 times the supply, although below the average of 2.65 from the last six auctions [1] - Last month, foreign participation in the two-year bond auction dropped nearly 20 percentage points to 56.2%, significantly below the six-auction average of 73%, indicating a need for improved confidence among overseas investors [2] Group 3 - The U.S. two-year Treasury yield stands at 3.977%, while the ten-year and thirty-year yields are at 4.444% and 4.948%, respectively, as market participants await the upcoming release of the Federal Reserve's May policy meeting minutes and April's core PCE inflation data [3] - A tax and spending bill pushed by President Trump is set to enter the Senate, with the Congressional Budget Office estimating it could increase the fiscal deficit by approximately $3.8 trillion over the next decade, further exacerbating the debt burden [3]