1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's exports in September continued to exceed expectations, with a year-on-year growth of 8.3%. The resilience of exports was mainly supported by the demand from non-US economies and emerging markets, low base effect, and the "anti-involution" effect on export prices. In the fourth quarter, although the rising base may suppress export readings, exports may still perform better than expected. [3][7] - China's imports in September had a year-on-year growth of 7.4%, reaching a new high for the year. The increase was mainly driven by price rises, and the import volume of some consumer goods remained weak. Attention should be paid to the improvement of import momentum after the accelerated implementation of wide - credit policies in the fourth quarter. [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogues 3.1 Export: Strong Demand from Emerging Markets Supports Export Resilience - **Overall Export Situation**: In September, the export growth rate was +8.3%, 3.9 percentage points higher than that in August. The narrowing decline in exports to the US and the rising growth rate to non - US economies, along with the booming emerging markets, supported export resilience. [3][13] - **By Product Category** - **Consumer Goods**: The drag on consumer goods exports narrowed slightly but remained at a low level. In September, the year - on - year decline of four categories of consumer goods (clothing, shoes, bags, and toys) was - 12.7%, a 0.6 - percentage - point improvement from August. Price was still the main drag, with shoes and bags having year - on - year declines of - 13.0% and - 14.1% respectively. [15] - **Intermediate Goods**: The export of intermediate goods accelerated, significantly driving exports. In September, the combined year - on - year growth of five categories of intermediate goods (plastic products, steel, aluminum, integrated circuits, and general equipment) was +21.0% (compared to +12.3% in August), driving export growth by 2.4 percentage points. [18] - **Electronic Products**: Due to the low base, the drag of electronic products on exports significantly narrowed. In September, the combined year - on - year decline of mobile phones and laptops was - 1.0% (compared to - 8.1% in August), and the drag on exports narrowed to - 0.1%, the best performance since April. [23] - **Automobiles**: The contribution of automobiles declined slightly. In September, the year - on - year growth of automobile (including chassis) export value was +10.9%, a 6.5 - percentage - point decline from August, and the driving rate of export growth dropped to 0.4%. [23] - **By Country** - **Developed Economies**: In September, the decline in exports to the US narrowed slightly, with a year - on - year decline of - 27.0%, and its share in exports rose to 10.4%. The growth rate of exports to the EU continued to rise, reaching +14.2%. [24] - **Emerging Markets**: Exports to ASEAN slowed down, with a year - on - year growth of +15.6%, a 7 - percentage - point decline from the previous month, but still at a relatively high historical level. Exports to Latin America were remarkable, with the year - on - year growth turning positive to +15.2%, the highest since May. [24] 3.2 Import: Significantly Driven by Price, with the Growth Rate Reaching a New High for the Year - **Overall Import Situation**: In September, the import amount had a year - on - year growth of 7.4%, a 6.1 - percentage - point increase from August, reaching a new high for the year. The month - on - month growth was +8.5%, significantly higher than the usual 2% in the same period. Price increases were the main driver, while the import volume of some commodities remained weak, indicating that domestic demand still needed to be boosted by wide - credit policies. [29] - **By Product Category** - **Upstream Bulk Commodities**: The decline in imports of upstream bulk commodities significantly narrowed. In September, the combined year - on - year decline of five categories of upstream bulk commodities (iron ore, copper ore, coal and lignite, crude oil, and refined oil) was - 1.6%, the best performance this year, 10.5 percentage points narrower than in August. [30] - **Intermediate Goods**: The import of intermediate goods accelerated. The combined year - on - year growth of four categories of intermediate goods (primary plastics, copper materials, diodes, and integrated circuits) was +11.6%, a 6.2 - percentage - point increase from the previous month, also at a new high for the year. [30] - **Downstream Consumer Goods**: The decline in downstream consumer goods narrowed to single - digits for the first time. The combined year - on - year decline of three categories of consumer goods (medical materials and drugs, cosmetics, and automobiles) was - 9.9% (compared to - 25.1% previously), dragging down imports by - 0.2%. [30]