新华财经上海10月8日电（记者杨溢仁）7月以来，随着权益市场持续上涨，债市迎来回调。目前，30年 期国债活跃券与10年期国债活跃券的利差已升至2023年以来75%分位数以上，整体而言，纯债资产的配 置性价比有所提升。 不过不少业内人士也认为，当前债市正逐步修正过度透支的宽松预期，鉴于四季度政策性金融工具、促 消费等宽信用政策可能继续出台，则债市面临的扰动因素依旧较多，短期内"防御为主"或是更稳妥的策 略，但考虑到央行呵护资金面、重启国债买卖的可能性增大等偏多因素的存在，机构在适当控制久期水 平的同时，也可把握超跌反弹的交易机会。 债市不改弱震荡行情 "十一"长假前，银行间利率债市场收益率展开弱势震荡。 中央国债登记结算有限责任公司提供的数据显示，截至9月30日收盘，银行间利率债市场收益率涨跌互 现。举例来看，中债国债收益率曲线3M期限下行4BP至1.34%；2年期收益率微跌1BP至1.49%；10年期 收益率行至1.86%附近。 "9月以来，债市利率不改震荡上行走势，收益率曲线走陡，主要的利空因素为中美谈判超预期、债基赎 回费面临上调促赎回压力加剧和'反内卷'情绪的阶段性升温。"财通证券研究所首席经济学家孙彬 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In September 2025, with the addition of the traditional "Golden September" peak season, the PMI slightly rebounded below the boom - bust line, but the recovery was still mild, and structural contradictions remained. The production in September drove the PMI to rise by 0.28pct, followed by the employees, while the demand and material inventory contributed less than 0.1pct. The production - new order gap widened, and the PMI increase was weaker than the average in September since 2022, falling short of the seasonality. The economic recovery foundation needs to be strengthened, and the 50 billion yuan policy - based financial instruments may be the key to "break the situation" [6][12]. - For the bond market, the PMI has been below the boom - bust line for 6 consecutive months. The market has fully anticipated the weak data. In the fourth quarter, new policy - based financial instruments will take effect. Attention should be paid to whether data such as new orders are "better than expected". The downstream construction and project expenditures may speed up in the fourth quarter, which may drive the performance of the mid - stream manufacturing industry. Attention should also be paid to whether the PMI can exceed the seasonal level and return above the boom - bust line [6][13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory I. Manufacturing PMI: Moderately Upward, Elasticity Awaits Policy Boost (1) Supply and Demand: The Supply - Demand Gap May Widen Again - New orders increased by 0.2pct month - on - month to 49.7%. The impact of high temperature and heavy rain faded, and exports showed resilience, but the intensity of demand recovery was still insufficient as the increase in September was the lowest since 2022 [2][16]. - Production increased by 1.1pct month - on - month to 51.9%, being the largest contributor to PMI improvement. The production peak season was realized, and the procurement volume and production and operation activity expectation index increased. The "production - new order" gap widened to 2.2pct, the highest since the beginning of the year, and the supply - demand differentiation intensified [2][20]. (2) Foreign Trade: New Export Orders Rebound Faster - New export orders increased by 0.6pct month - on - month to 47.8%, and imports increased by 0.1pct to 48.1%. In September, due to the Christmas product export peak season and the demand from non - US economies, exports were stable, and port freight volume remained high. The increase in new export orders in September exceeded that in August and was better than the overall new orders, showing export resilience [24]. - Imports continued the slight upward trend and were at a high level in the same period, indicating that enterprises' demand for import stocking was strong [25]. (3) Price: The Pressure of Price Decline Reappears - In September, the purchase price of raw materials and the ex - factory price decreased by 0.1pct and 0.9pct month - on - month to 53.2% and 48.2% respectively. The supply and demand of the basic raw material industry declined, dragging down the price index, while the prices of industries such as equipment manufacturing improved, showing a large industry differentiation [3][29]. (4) Inventory: Slow Destocking, Active Production, and a Sharp Increase in Product Inventory - In September, the raw material inventory index increased by 0.5pct to 48.5% due to the increase in procurement volume. However, the downstream demand destocking was slow, and the production expanded actively, resulting in a 1.4pct increase in finished product inventory to the highest level in the same period, showing the characteristic of "passive inventory accumulation" [3][31]. II. Non - Manufacturing PMI: The Construction Industry Continues to Be in Low - level Prosperity, Awaiting Policy Effect - In September, the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.0%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3pct. The service industry PMI decreased by 0.4pct to 50.1%, and the construction industry PMI increased by 0.2pct to 49.3%, remaining below the boom - bust line [36]. - The construction industry expansion was still weak. The business activity indexes of housing construction and civil engineering construction were below 50%. The lack of new orders was the main factor restricting construction. The 50 billion yuan policy - based financial instruments may accelerate the investment rhythm in the fourth quarter and help the construction industry PMI recover [4][36]. - The service industry's prosperity declined in the off - season. After the summer vacation, tourism consumption entered the off - season. The approaching National Day holiday is expected to drive the improvement of travel service consumption [4][36].

Market Performance - Treasury futures closed higher across the board, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.21%, the 10-year main contract up by 0.12%, the 5-year main contract increasing by 0.07%, and the 2-year main contract gaining 0.01% [1] - The yield on the 10-year China Development Bank bond "25国开15" rose by 0.75 basis points to 1.9425%, while the 10-year government bond "25附息国债11" yield increased by 0.85 basis points to 1.7980% [1] - The 30-year government bond "25超长特别国债02" yield rose by 1.2 basis points to 2.0910% [1] Funding Conditions - The central bank announced a 280 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation on September 15, with a fixed rate of 1.40% and a full bid amount of 280 billion yuan [2] - On the same day, 191.5 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net injection of 88.5 billion yuan [2] - The central bank also conducted a 600 billion yuan 6-month buyout reverse repo operation, following a previous 1 trillion yuan 3-month buyout operation on September 5 [2] Economic Fundamentals - August economic data showed weaker-than-expected consumption and investment, indicating a need for stronger domestic demand [3] - China's retail sales in August grew by 3.4% year-on-year, below the expected 3.8% and previous 3.7% [3] - Fixed asset investment from January to August increased by only 0.5% year-on-year, compared to expectations of 1.3% and a previous increase of 1.6% [3] Operational Recommendations - The basic data is favorable for the bond market, but strong risk appetite is pressuring long-term bond yields [4] - The market anticipates stronger policies to boost consumption, and stability in the bond market requires more significant positive signals [4] - Investors are advised to remain cautious and observe market movements, particularly regarding funding conditions and potential credit policy changes [4]

Report Information - Industry: Treasury Bond [1] - Date: September 12, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Report Core View - In August, there were no significant changes in the bond market's fundamentals and policies, and the stock - bond seesaw was the main reason for the bond market adjustment. In September, the factors suppressing the bond market may ease, but there are still limited incremental positives. The bond market has become less sensitive to the stock market since late August, and as the fastest - growing phase of the stock market may have passed, the stock market's suppression of the bond market may further ease. From a calendar effect perspective, the bond market has performed poorly in September since 2019 due to government bond issuance peaks and the intensification of broad - credit policies. This year, supply - side disturbances are weaker than in previous years, but the risk lies in the possible further intensification of broad - credit policies, and broad - monetary policies are unlikely to be implemented. Overall, the suppression of the bond market may ease, but it still lacks a breakthrough. In the short term, this week is a period of intensive economic data release, and economic data is expected to show moderate recovery, with the main focus on the stock - bond seesaw and the expectation of central bank bond - buying [11][12]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: The strength of the A - share market suppressed long - term bonds, while loose funds supported short - term bonds. Most yields of major - term interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market declined, with medium - and long - term yields falling by about 2bp. By 16:30, the yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond 250011 was reported at 1.8010%, down 1.4bp [8][9]. - **Funding Market**: The central bank increased its open - market operations, resulting in a stable and then looser funding situation. There were 2126 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, and the central bank conducted 2920 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, achieving a net injection of 794 billion yuan. The inter - bank funding sentiment index remained stable and then loosened. Short - term funding rates mostly declined slightly, with the overnight weighted rate of inter - bank deposits falling 5.69bp to 1.3706%, the 7 - day rate rising 0.5bp to 1.4813%, and medium - and long - term funds remaining stable. The 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate remained around 1.6% [10]. 2. Industry News - **Economic Data**: In August, China's CPI was flat month - on - month and down 0.4% year - on - year due to a higher base and weak food prices. Core CPI rose 0.9% year - on - year, with the growth rate expanding for the fourth consecutive month. PPI was down 2.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month, and flat month - on - month, ending eight consecutive months of decline [13]. - **Policy Statements**: The National Development and Reform Commission aims to better coordinate domestic economic work and international trade struggles, maintain policy continuity and stability, and strive to achieve the annual economic and social development goals. The Ministry of Finance plans to make full use of a more proactive fiscal policy to support employment and foreign trade, foster new growth drivers, improve people's livelihoods, and prevent and resolve risks [13][14]. 3. Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The report provides data on the trading of various treasury bond futures contracts on September 8, including settlement prices, opening prices, closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, open interest, and position changes [6]. - **Monetary Market**: Data on the SHIBOR term structure, SHIBOR trends, and inter - bank pledged repurchase weighted rates are presented [28][30].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market has experienced significant adjustments since July, leading to negative returns for over a thousand bond funds, while the equity market has seen a rise in investor confidence due to supportive policies [1][4]. Group 1: Bond Market Performance - Since July, the 30-year government bond futures have retraced over 5%, with other maturities also showing declines, indicating a broad adjustment in the bond market [2][3]. - As of September 9, over a thousand bond funds reported negative year-to-date returns, with 50 funds showing returns below -2% and 181 funds below -1% [4]. - The bond market's downturn is attributed to changing market expectations, driven by macroeconomic policies aimed at stabilizing growth and a strong equity market performance [3][4]. Group 2: Fund Dynamics - The adjustment in the bond market has led to significant redemption pressures on bond funds, with nearly 20 funds experiencing large redemptions in the past month [4]. - Convertible bond funds and mixed equity-bond funds have performed relatively well, with some convertible bond funds achieving returns exceeding 20% [4]. - Recent regulatory changes regarding public fund fees have raised concerns among investors, potentially impacting the bond market's attractiveness [5]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The current environment suggests that the bond market may continue to face disturbances due to rising risk appetite and the strong performance of the equity market [6]. - Despite the challenges, there remains fundamental support for the domestic bond market, with expectations of a stable liquidity environment and ongoing growth policies [6]. - Analysts suggest that while a trend of recovery in the bond market may take time, there could be structural opportunities as market sentiment stabilizes [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In August 2025, most economic data showed a slowdown. Against the backdrop of credit - easing policies, the market risk appetite continued to improve, driving the Shanghai Composite Index to break through the high of the past 10 years. The "stock - bond seesaw" affected the bond market, with different - term bond yields generally rising. Looking forward to September, the bond market faces greater adjustment pressure, but if the 10Y Treasury bond rate breaks through 1.8%, the allocation portfolio may gradually enter the market [2][3][5]. - The economic fundamentals in July showed a slowdown trend, with only exports accelerating among the six major indicators. The divergence between domestic and foreign demand became more obvious, and the GDP reading weakened significantly compared with the second quarter. The Fed is likely to start cutting interest rates in September, and the RMB may appreciate in the second half of the year [4][28][72]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2025 August China Capital Market Review 3.1.1 China Capital Market Trend Review - In August, most economic data weakened. Under the influence of credit - easing policies, the market risk appetite improved, and the Shanghai Composite Index broke through the high of the past 10 years. The bond market was affected by factors such as the "stock - bond seesaw" and the unexpected convergence of the capital market around the tax period, with the yields of different - term bonds rising. The yield of the 1 - year Treasury bond active bond decreased by 1.75BP to 1.35%, the 10 - year increased by 7.45BP to 1.78%, and the 30 - year increased by 10.4BP to 2.0180% [2][3][10]. 3.1.2 Bond Market Primary Issuance Situation - In August, the pressure of government bonds increased significantly. The net issuance of local bonds was 977.6 billion yuan, less than the planned amount by 183.2 billion yuan, mainly due to the shortfall in new special bonds. The net issuance of national bonds was 593.3 billion yuan, and that of policy - financial bonds was 771 billion yuan. The supply pressure of government bonds in September may decline month - on - month, and the pressure on the capital market may ease [18]. 3.1.3 Capital Market Tracking - In August, the central bank continued to make large - scale capital injections. The monthly central values of DR001 and R001 decreased. Looking forward to September, the pressure on the capital market may increase, and attention should be paid to the central bank's incremental monetary policies [23]. 3.2 China Bond Market Macroeconomic Environment Interpretation 3.2.1 Economic Fundamentals and Monetary Policy - In July, most economic data showed a slowdown. Industrial, service, consumption, investment, and real - estate sales growth rates were lower than the previous values, and the GDP reading weakened. The central bank continued to inject funds in August, and the Politburo meeting had a more positive attitude towards loose monetary policies [28][66]. 3.2.2 Overseas Economy - In July, the global de - dollarization process slowed down, but the downward pressure on the US economy began to emerge. The Fed is likely to start cutting interest rates in September. The US economic downward pressure is greater than the inflation upward momentum, and the RMB may appreciate in the second half of the year [68][72][79]. 3.3 2025 September China Bond Market Outlook and Allocation Strategy - In September, although it is very likely that economic data will continue to weaken, the bond market still faces great adjustment pressure. If the 10Y Treasury bond rate breaks through 1.8%, the allocation portfolio can gradually enter the market. Some local bonds with a spread of 30bp higher than national bonds have allocation value [80][81].

Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: September 5, 2025 [2] - Researcher: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - In August, there were no significant changes in the bond market's fundamentals and policies. The stock - bond seesaw was the main reason for the bond market adjustment. In September, the factors suppressing the bond market may ease, but incremental positive factors are still limited. The bond market has become less sensitive to the stock market since late August. Considering that the fastest - growing phase of the stock market may have passed, the pressure on the bond market from the stock market may further ease. Historically, the bond market has performed poorly in September since 2019 due to factors like government bond issuance peaks and the intensification of broad - credit policies. This year, the supply - side disturbance is weaker than in previous years, but the risk lies in the possible further intensification of broad - credit policies, and broad - monetary policies may still be difficult to implement. Overall, the pressure on the bond market will ease, but it still lacks a breakthrough point, and investors may need to be patient and wait for better allocation value [11][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: The stock market's continued adjustment boosted risk - aversion sentiment, and the meeting of the joint working group of the Ministry of Finance and the central bank may have also boosted the expectation of treasury bond trading. Most treasury bond futures closed higher. The yields of most major - term interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market rose, with the increase in the medium - and long - term mostly within 1bp. As of 16:30, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 reported 1.7525%, up 0.5bp. At the beginning of the month, the central bank continued to withdraw funds, and the money market was stable. There were 416.1 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities, and the central bank conducted 212.6 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 203.5 billion yuan. The inter - bank capital sentiment index remained stable, and most short - term capital interest rates rose slightly [8][9][10]. 3.2 Industry News - The second group - leader meeting of the joint working group of the Ministry of Finance and the central bank was held to discuss issues such as financial market operation, government bond issuance management, central bank treasury bond trading operations, and improving the offshore RMB treasury bond issuance mechanism. - The China - Shanghai Cooperation Organization Digital Economy Cooperation Platform was inaugurated in Tianjin, aiming to deepen international cooperation in the digital economy field between China and SCO countries. - Shanghai's first property market optimization policy "Shanghai Six Measures" was introduced, and its positive effects have been initially shown, with increased trading volume in both new and second - hand housing markets [13][14]. 3.3 Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: Data on trading of various treasury bond futures contracts on September 4, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, trading volume, open interest, etc. were provided [6]. - **Money Market**: Information on the central bank's reverse repurchase operations, inter - bank capital sentiment index, and short - and medium - long - term capital interest rates was presented [10]. - **Derivatives Market**: Information on Shibor3M interest rate swap fixing curves and FR007 interest rate swap fixing curves was provided [35].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The suppression of the bond market may ease in September, but incremental positive factors remain limited. The bond market has become gradually insensitive to the stock market since late August. Considering that the fastest - growing phase of the stock market may have passed, the suppression of the stock market on the bond market may further ease. However, there is a risk that credit - easing policies may be further intensified, and it is still difficult for monetary easing policies to be implemented. Overall, the bond market may still lack a breakthrough, and investors need to be patient and wait for better allocation value [11][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: The stock - bond seesaw continued. The late - session plunge in the A - share market boosted the bond market sentiment, and treasury bond futures closed higher across the board. The yields of major term interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market declined, with larger declines in the medium - and long - term bonds, around 2bp. By 16:30 pm, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 was reported at 1.75%, down 1.75bp [8][9]. - **Funding Market**: At the beginning of the month, the central bank continued to withdraw funds, and the funding situation was stable. There were 3799 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities, and the central bank conducted 2291 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1508 billion yuan. The inter - bank funding sentiment index remained stable, and most short - term funding rates fluctuated within a narrow range. The weighted overnight rate of inter - bank deposits fluctuated around 1.31%, the 7 - day rate rose slightly by about 0.4bp to 1.44%, and the medium - and long - term funds remained stable. The 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate changed little around 1.6% [10]. 3.2 Industry News - **Domestic News**: The work of using local government special bond funds to acquire and repurchase idle land has been continuously promoted, which has played an important role in stabilizing the real estate market. As of the end of August, the number of idle land parcels to be acquired with special bonds reached 4574, with a land area of over 230 million square meters, and the total amount of land to be acquired with special bonds exceeded 610 billion yuan, with actual special bond issuance of about 175.2 billion yuan. The 2025 semi - annual reports of banks were released. The asset quality of key areas such as personal loans and real estate remains a common pressure in the industry, but the overall risk is controllable, and the deterioration of relevant indicators is expected to slow down [13]. - **International News**: US President Trump said he would appeal to the US Supreme Court regarding the global tariff case. He believes that uncertainty causes the stock market to fall. If the tariffs are cancelled, the US may become a third - world country. The Bank of Japan's Deputy Governor said it is appropriate to continue raising interest rates. The US ISM manufacturing index in August rose slightly to 48.7, lower than expected, and the output index fell back into the contraction range. The eurozone's CPI in August rose 2.1% year - on - year, and a European Central Bank official said the central bank should suspend interest rate cuts due to upward inflation risks [13][14]. 3.3 Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: The report provides trading data for various treasury bond futures contracts on September 3, including pre - settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change percentage, trading volume, open interest, and change in open interest [6]. - **Money Market**: Relevant charts show the term structure change and trend of SHIBOR, as well as the change in the weighted inter - bank pledged repurchase rate and the inter - bank deposit pledged repurchase rate [29][33]. - **Derivatives Market**: Charts show the Shibor3M interest rate swap fixing curve (mean) and the FR007 interest rate swap fixing curve (mean) [35].

Report Overview - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report - Date: September 3, 2025 - Industry: Treasury Bond 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - In August, there were no significant changes in the bond market's fundamentals and policies, and the stock - bond seesaw was the main reason for the bond market adjustment. In September, the factors suppressing the bond market may ease, but incremental positive factors are still limited. The bond market has become gradually insensitive to the stock market since late August, and as the fastest - growing phase of the stock market may have passed, the stock market's suppression on the bond market may further ease. However, from a calendar effect perspective, the bond market has performed poorly in September since 2019, mainly due to government bond issuance peaks and the intensification of broad - credit policies. This year, the supply - side disturbance is weaker than in previous years, but the risk lies in the possible further intensification of broad - credit policies, and it is still difficult for broad - monetary policies to be implemented. Overall, the suppression of the bond market may ease, but it still lacks a breakthrough, and investors need to be patient and wait for better allocation value [11][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance** - The A - share market adjusted, but the bond market sentiment remained cautious. Treasury bond futures fluctuated downward and closed lower across the board. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds changed within a narrow range, mostly within 1bp. By 16:30, the yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond 250011 was reported at 1.768%, down 0.05bp [8][9]. - At the beginning of the month, the central bank continued to withdraw funds, and the money market tightened marginally. There were 4058 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due, and the central bank conducted 2557 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1501 billion yuan. The inter - bank money market sentiment index rose slightly, short - term money market rates mostly changed within a narrow range, the weighted overnight rate of inter - bank deposits fluctuated around 1.31%, the 7 - day rate fell about 0.8bp to 1.44%, medium - and long - term funds remained stable, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate remained around 1.63% [10]. - **Conclusion** - The bond market's fundamentals and policies in August did not change significantly, and the stock - bond seesaw was the main reason for the bond market adjustment. In September, the factors suppressing the bond market may ease, but there are still limited incremental positive factors. The suppression of the stock market on the bond market may further ease, but from a calendar effect perspective, the bond market has performed poorly in September since 2019. This year, the supply - side disturbance is weaker than in previous years, but the risk lies in the possible further intensification of broad - credit policies, and broad - monetary policies are still difficult to implement. Overall, the bond market suppression may ease, but it still lacks a breakthrough, and investors need to be patient [11][12]. 3.2 Industry News - As of the end of July this year, the bond market custody balance reached 190.4 trillion yuan, breaking through the 190 - trillion - yuan mark for the first time, setting a new historical high, which is a significant sign of the in - depth development of China's financial market and releases three positive signals: continuous increase in the direct financing scale of the real economy, more diversified asset allocation of financial institutions, and further enrichment of residents' asset allocation methods [13]. - The Implementation Plan for the Fiscal Interest Subsidy Policy for Personal Consumption Loans was officially implemented on September 1. Participating pilot banks and other institutions officially accepted subsidy application. Some bank executives were optimistic about the impact of the consumption credit subsidy policy during the interim results season, and credit card installment business is not within the scope of subsidy [13]. - Many banks announced that the commercial personal housing loan interest rates in Shanghai no longer distinguish between first - home and second - home loans. After the adjustment, the minimum interest rate for new first - home loans in Shanghai is 3.05%, and the minimum interest rate for new second - home loans is 3.09%. Second - home mortgage loans with an interest rate higher than 3.36% can be lowered to 3.36% [13]. - The inter - bank lending center and the Shanghai Clearing House optimized the clearing mechanism for general repurchase transactions in the inter - bank bond market. The scope of participants was expanded to legal entities of deposit - taking financial institutions, and the scope of eligible collateral bonds was expanded to include non - financial corporate debt financing instruments issued by state - owned enterprise - managed industrial companies and high - quality private enterprises, as well as bonds issued by high - quality international development institutions [14]. - With the central bank maintaining a relatively loose attitude towards liquidity, market institutions expect that with the acceleration of fiscal expenditures, liquidity in September is expected to remain reasonably abundant, and fluctuations may mainly occur during periods of concentrated government bond issuance, if the stock market strengthens and causes increased concerns in the bond market, and in the last week of the quarter [14]. 3.3 Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market** - The report provides trading data for various treasury bond futures contracts on September 2, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, percentage change, trading volume, open interest, and change in open interest [6]. - It also mentions the inter - term spreads of the main treasury bond futures contracts and the inter - variety spreads among 2 - year, 30 - year, 10 - year, and 5 - year contracts, as well as the trends of the main treasury bond futures contracts [16][20]. - **Money Market** - The report shows the term - structure changes and trends of SHIBOR, as well as the changes in the weighted inter - bank pledged repurchase rate and the inter - bank deposit pledged repurchase rate [30][34]. - **Derivatives Market** - The report presents the Shibor3M interest - rate swap fixing curve (mean) and the FR007 interest - rate swap fixing curve (mean) [36].

Group 1 - The report indicates that the economic data for August shows signs of weakness, with most indicators such as industrial output, services, consumption, investment, and real estate sales falling below previous values, while only exports accelerated [3][5][85] - The Shanghai Composite Index has surpassed a nearly 10-year high, driven by improved market risk appetite under the influence of wide credit policies [3][4] - The report highlights a "look at stocks, do bonds" strategy as the main logic in the bond market, with the 10-year government bond yield reaching a peak of 1.7925% during the month [3][4][11] Group 2 - The macroeconomic environment analysis reveals that the manufacturing PMI for July marginally increased to 49.4%, indicating a potential slowdown in the economy for the third quarter [5][29] - The report notes that the central bank's monetary policy has been relatively supportive, with significant net injections of funds in August, including a net injection of 0.3 trillion yuan [24][71] - The bond market strategy suggests adopting a barbell strategy to balance liquidity and yield, especially if the 10-year government bond yield breaks the 1.8% resistance level [6][85] Group 3 - The report discusses the government bond issuance situation, indicating that local government bond issuance in August was 977.6 billion yuan, which is lower than planned by 183.2 billion yuan [19] - It is projected that the supply pressure of government bonds in September may decrease compared to August, with an expected net financing scale of 1.3 trillion yuan [19][20] - The report emphasizes that the bond market's performance is influenced by the dynamics of the stock market, with the "stock-bond seesaw" effect expected to weaken in September [85] Group 4 - The analysis of the overseas economic environment indicates that the process of de-dollarization has slowed, while downward pressure on the US economy has begun to emerge [73][84] - The report highlights that foreign investment in China's bond market has been on the rise, with foreign holdings reaching 4.39 trillion yuan by June [73][76] - The report suggests that the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts in September could impact the Chinese bond market, necessitating close monitoring of overseas economic data [77][84]