消息面上，据九派新闻，从海底捞获悉，春节假期（2月15日至23日，共9天），全国门店累计接待顾客 超1400万人次，较去年同期增长显著。其中，湖北省内海底捞门店表现亮眼，春节假期接待人次突破60 万。值得关注的是，襄阳、仙桃、天门、潜江等非省会城市的门店客流显著攀升，部分门店翻台率较平 日增长超50%。 国元国际此前指出，根据该行跟踪，公司25年下半年以来翻台率同比企稳，展望26年，在低基数效应以 及公司持续专注产品创新和门店升级的作用下，经营或继续改善，公司股息率达6%以上，值得积极关 注。 智通财经APP获悉，海底捞(06862)涨超5%，截至发稿，涨5.46%，报17.39港元，成交额2.19亿港元。 ...

证券研究报告 2026 年 2 月 24 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 家电行业周报 2025 年地产配套家电市场下滑，2026 年或有低基数效 应 相关研究： | 1.《新国补落地首月成效显著》 | | --- | | 2026.2.9 | | 2.《板块下挫，咖啡机龙头递表港 | | 交所》 2026.2.1 | | 3. 《12月空调销售承压，行业洗 | | 牌加速》 2026.1.26 | 行业评级：增持（维持） 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 1.2% 0.4% -9.1% | | | 分析师：张弛 证书编号：S0500525110001 Tel：17621838100 Email：zc08241@xcsc.com 分析师：李育文 证书编号：S0500523060001 Tel：021-50295328 Email：liyw3@xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼 核心要点： ❑ 2 月 9 日-2 月 13 日，家电行业上涨 0.16%，其他黑色家电等子行业领涨 2 月 9 日-2 月 13 日，家电行业涨跌幅为 0.16%， ...

Group 1: Report Title and General Information - The report is titled "Industrial Consumer Goods Drive Moderate Price Recovery - December 2025 CPI and PPI Review" [1] - The report was published on January 11, 2026 [10] Group 2: Report Highlights and Core Views - In December 2025, domestic prices improved unexpectedly supported by imported factors and pre - holiday consumption. Core CPI year - on - year growth remained at 1.2%, and the year - on - year decline of PPI narrowed [2] - In 2026, food CPI may still be dragged down by pig prices in the first half of the year, but the service sector is resilient, and the industrial consumer goods sector is supported by the "anti - involution" policy and the international metal price increase cycle. With the low - base effect, prices may continue a moderate recovery. It is neutrally expected that the year - on - year growth rate of PPI will turn positive in the fourth quarter [2] - This year, the bond market may operate in an environment of moderate price recovery. The long - term bond is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the 10 - year Treasury yield expected to fluctuate between 1.8% - 1.9%. The bond market's periodic recovery opportunity may come in the second half of the first quarter [2] Group 3: December 2025 Price Data - In December 2025, CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month and 0.8% year - on - year, with the year - on - year increase expanding by 0.1 percentage points compared with the previous month. Core CPI rose 1.2% year - on - year [7] - In December 2025, PPI rose 0.2% month - on - month and fell 1.9% year - on - year, with the year - on - year decline narrowing by 0.3 percentage points compared with the previous month [7] Group 4: Factors Affecting CPI Core CPI - Industrial consumer goods are the main support for core CPI, while service prices are stable. In December 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of core CPI remained at 1.2% for three consecutive months [11] - The year - on - year growth rate of industrial consumer goods (excluding energy) prices increased to 2.5% for six consecutive months, driving the year - on - year increase of CPI by about 0.63 percentage points. Gold jewelry prices rose 5.6% month - on - month due to rising international gold prices; copper and memory price increases drove household appliances and communication tools to rise 1.4% and 3% month - on - month respectively; the price decline of fuel cars and new - energy cars narrowed to 2.4% and 2.2% year - on - year respectively [11] - Service prices improved steadily, with the year - on - year growth rate slightly falling 0.1 percentage points to 0.6%. Among them, the month - on - month prices of household services and medical services were still stronger than the seasonal average [11] Overall CPI - The increase in food prices drove CPI to continue rising, while energy prices still dragged down CPI. In December 2025, CPI was stronger than the seasonal average month - on - month, and the year - on - year increase expanded by 0.1 percentage points to 0.8%, reaching the highest level since March 2023 [11] - Food prices rose 1.1% year - on - year, with the increase expanding by 0.9 percentage points compared with the previous month, driving the year - on - year increase of CPI by about 0.21 percentage points. Pre - holiday consumption demand pushed up the prices of fresh fruits and shrimps and crabs by 2.6% and 2.5% respectively. The drag of pork and egg prices on the year - on - year CPI decreased, but pig prices may remain low in the first half of this year [11] - Energy prices fell 3.8% year - on - year, with the decline expanding by 0.4 percentage points compared with the previous month. Affected by international oil price changes, domestic gasoline prices fell 1.2% month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline expanded to 8.4% [11] Group 5: Factors Affecting PPI - The continuous implementation of the "anti - involution" policy and the increase in international non - ferrous metal prices drove the month - on - month increase of PPI for three consecutive months, and the year - on - year decline narrowed. In December 2025, the month - on - month growth rate of PPI rebounded for three consecutive months, with the increase expanding by 0.1 percentage points to 0.2%. The year - on - year decline of PPI also narrowed by 0.3 percentage points to - 1.9% [11] - The year - on - year declines of both living materials and production materials narrowed. Production materials rose 0.3% month - on - month, while living materials remained flat month - on - month [11] - With the implementation of the "anti - involution" measures, the supply - demand structure of some industries improved, and the year - on - year price declines of the coal mining and washing, lithium - ion battery manufacturing, and photovoltaic industries narrowed [11] - The increase in international non - ferrous metal prices drove the prices of non - ferrous metal mining and dressing and non - ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industries to rise 3.7% and 2.8% month - on - month respectively, with the increases expanding by 1.1 and 0.7 percentage points compared with the previous month [11] Group 6: Upstream and Downstream Price Trends - The prices of upstream mining industries continued to rise, while the prices of mid - and downstream industries were stable. The price game may have been transmitted to the downstream. The substantial implementation of the "anti - involution" policy drove the continuous price recovery of industries such as coal and photovoltaic, but some key industries for capacity management did not improve significantly [11] - Among upstream industries, the prices of coal mining and washing and non - ferrous metal mining and dressing increased for many months, while the year - on - year price growth rates of industries such as petroleum, coal and other fuel processing (- 7.9%) and non - metallic mineral products (- 6.8%) were still declining [11] - The month - on - month price growth rates of industries such as general equipment manufacturing, automobile manufacturing, and computer, communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing were basically flat or fluctuated slightly, and the upstream prices of most industries had not been smoothly transmitted to the mid - and downstream raw material processing and manufacturing industries [11] Group 7: Future Outlook - In 2026, food CPI may still be dragged down by pig prices in the first half of the year, but the service sector is resilient, and the industrial consumer goods sector is supported by the "anti - involution" policy and the international metal price increase cycle. With the low - base effect, prices may continue a moderate recovery. It is neutrally expected that the year - on - year growth rate of PPI will turn positive in the fourth quarter [11] - This year, the bond market may operate in an environment of moderate price recovery. The long - term bond is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury yields expected to adjust to around 1.9% and 2.4% respectively. The bond market's periodic recovery opportunity may come in the second half of the first quarter [11]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - December CPI increased by 0.8% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, aligning with market expectations[6] - December PPI decreased by 1.9% year-on-year but increased by 0.2% month-on-month, exceeding market expectations of -2.0%[10] - Core CPI remained above 1% for four consecutive months, with a year-on-year increase of 1.2% in December[10] Group 2: Influencing Factors - Seasonal factors and rising gold prices supported the improvement in CPI, particularly in food and beverage categories[10] - The narrowing decline in PPI is attributed to lower year-on-year bases and seasonal price increases during winter[10] - The increase in international non-ferrous metal prices contributed to the month-on-month improvement in PPI[10] Group 3: Future Outlook - CPI is expected to continue fluctuating upwards in early 2026 due to seasonal effects and rising gold prices[10] - PPI may also see a rebound influenced by low base effects and ongoing structural changes in the economy[10] - Economic growth pressures are anticipated in Q1 2026, with a focus on potential monetary easing and fiscal stimulus measures[10] Group 4: Risks - Risks include weaker-than-expected consumer recovery, escalating geopolitical conflicts, and uncertainties surrounding tariff policies[8]

美银美林在最新报告中明确表示看好中国消费股板块，核心支撑在于三大关键变化：低基数效应打开修复窗口、估值降至历史低位、资产属性呈 现"类可转债"特征。 据追风交易台，报告指出，中国消费板块正经历投资逻辑的结构性转变。当前市场呈现出三大关键特征：一是低基数效应开始显现，多个细分行 业（如白酒、乳制品）的销售额已回落至数年前水平，为2026年业绩的同比修复提供了基础；二是估值回归历史极端低位，板块估值溢价几近消 失，主动基金配置处于冰点，逆向布局空间显现；三是资产属性转向"类可转债"，龙头企业现金流稳健，高股息与回购政策构筑价格防线，兼具 防守性与未来估值修复的弹性。 该板块从过去的成长驱动转向深度价值与防御配置。投资者无需博弈短期反转，可以借助低估值与高股息构建安全垫。 理由一：低基数效应初现 报告指出，2026年多个消费细分领域将迎来同比基数的显著下降窗口。白酒行业已形成极低的市场比较基准；而在乳制品领域，国内前两大企业 的液态奶销售额经历两年深度调整后，已回落至2019年水平。 目前，消费板块12.7倍的前瞻市盈率已接近其历史均值下方两个标准差的极端低位，进入深度低估区间，并开始吸引部分逆向投资者的关注。美 ...

Profit Growth Pressure - Industrial enterprises' profits from January to November 2025 reached 66,268.6 million, showing a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year[1] - The profit growth rate has narrowed to 1.9%, down from 13.1% in the previous year, indicating significant pressure on profit growth[1] - The decline in production and profit margins, along with the diminishing low base effect, are the main reasons for the slowdown in profit growth[1] Production and Price Trends - Industrial production in November 2025 decreased by 4.8%, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) showed marginal improvement at 0.1%[1] - The profit margin for industrial enterprises fell to 5.29%, a decrease of 0.04 percentage points compared to the previous year[1] - Manufacturing profit margins improved, but mining and utility sectors saw a decline compared to October 2025[1] Internal Demand and Cash Flow - Weak domestic demand has led to passive inventory accumulation, with inventory levels increasing by 6.92% in November 2025[1] - Companies are facing accumulating cash flow and operational pressures, with cash flow indicators showing a decline[1] Future Outlook and Risks - The profit growth for the entire year is under pressure, with potential impacts from anti-competitive policies that may temporarily suppress profit totals[2] - Future policies related to domestic demand expansion and external demand risks will be crucial for profit recovery[2] - Investment strategies should consider the structural adjustments in industries and the potential for profit pressures in the short term[2]

投行对该股的评级以增持为主，近90天内共有2家投行给出增持评级，近90天的目标均价为54.46港元。 国泰海通证券股份有限公司最新一份研报给予农夫山泉增持评级，目标价51.92港元。 国泰海通发布研报称，维持农夫山泉(09633.HK)25-27年EPS为1.35/1.62/1.91元，给予35倍PE(25E)，目 标价51.92港元/股(港元兑人民币0.91汇率计算)，维持"增持"评级。考虑到旺季旺销，低基数效应，以及 聚酯瓶片有利价格，继续看好25H2业绩良好表现。 机构评级详情见下表： 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成 投资建议。 农夫山泉港股市值2262.58亿港元，在饮料制造行业中排名第1。主要指标见下表： ...

投资要点： 股 票 研 预期不变，信心充沛 农夫山泉(9633) 农夫山泉（9633）跟踪点评 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | [Table_Invest] 评级： | 增持 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 訾猛(分析师) | 021-38676442 | zimeng@gtht.com | S0880513120002 | | | | 颜慧菁(分析师) | 021-23183952 | yanhuijing@gtht.com | S0880525040022 | [当前价格 Table_CurPrice] (港元)： | 45.84 | | 张宇轩(分析师) | 021-23154172 | zhangyuxuan@gtht.com | S0880525040039 | | | 本报告导读： 考虑到旺季旺销，低基数效应，以及聚酯瓶片有利价格，继续看好 25H2 业绩良好 表现。 | | | 风险提示。（1）食安风险，（2）需求不及预期，（3）成本波动。 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | - ...

Group 1: Profit Growth Analysis - Profit growth for industrial enterprises from January to October 2025 is 1.9%, down from 3.2% in the previous period[1] - The main reasons for the narrowing profit growth are the weakening low base effect and declining production[1] - Industrial production in October 2025 decreased by 4.9%, a drop of 1.6 percentage points compared to the previous month[1] Group 2: Price and Profit Margin Trends - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a slight improvement in October 2025, increasing by 0.1% compared to a decline of 2.1% in the previous month[1] - Profit margins slightly decreased to 5.25% from 5.26% in the previous month[1] - Mining industry profit margins improved slightly, while manufacturing and utility sectors saw a decline compared to September[1] Group 3: Demand and Inventory Dynamics - Weak demand has led to passive inventory accumulation, with inventory levels increasing by 6.82% in October 2025[1] - The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell by 1.2 percentage points to 47.3% in October 2025, indicating contraction in manufacturing activity[1] Group 4: Future Outlook and Investment Implications - Future profit trends are expected to stabilize after short-term fluctuations, supported by domestic demand expansion policies[2] - External demand and geopolitical risks will also influence future profit trajectories[2] - Equipment and high-tech manufacturing sectors remain the main drivers of profit growth[1]

Core Insights - The personal income tax revenue in China reached 1.3363 trillion yuan from January to October 2025, showing a year-on-year growth of 11.5%, with a significant increase in October at 27.3% [2][3] Tax Revenue Performance - Domestic value-added tax grew by 4% year-on-year, while domestic consumption tax reached 1.439 trillion yuan, increasing by 2.4%. Corporate income tax amounted to 3.9182 trillion yuan, with a growth of 1.9% [2] Factors Driving Growth - The high growth in personal income tax is attributed to improved tax administration efficiency and diversification of tax sources, reflecting significant progress in tax governance capabilities [3] - Enhanced tax collection measures, particularly for overseas income, have contributed to the increase, with a notable rise in compliance among high-net-worth individuals [4][6] Overseas Income Management - The tax administration system has been refined, leading to better monitoring of previously unregulated tax sources, with tax authorities actively reaching out to taxpayers regarding overseas income reporting [4][5] - The implementation of the "Golden Tax Phase IV" has improved the accuracy of identifying cross-border income and hidden income [4] Capital Market Influence - The active capital market has led to a surge in capital income, which, along with resilient income among high-income groups and a low base effect, has supported the growth of personal income tax [7] - The capital market's performance is expected to contribute approximately 330 billion yuan to personal income tax in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of about 40 billion yuan [7] Economic Recovery and Base Effect - Economic recovery since the third quarter of 2025 and a low base from the previous year have amplified the growth rate of personal income tax [8] - The transition from a "coarse" to a "fine" tax governance model is expected to ensure stable growth in personal income tax revenue in the future [8]