丨证券研究报告丨 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490524080003 SFC：BVN394 赵增辉 马玮健 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 工业消费品带动物价温和修复 ——2025 年 12 月 CPI 和 PPI 点评 报告要点 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 [Table_Summary] 2025 年 12 月，国内物价在输入性因素及节前消费的支撑下超预期改善，核心 CPI 同比涨幅持 平在 1.2%，PPI 同比降幅收窄。展望 2026 年，上半年食品 CPI 或仍将受猪价拖累，但服务项 有韧性，以及工业消费品项有"反内卷"与国际金属涨价周期的支撑，低基数效应下物价或延 续温和回升，中性预计 PPI 同比增速将在四季度回正。今年债市或在物价温和修复的环境下运 行，我们维持长债震荡偏弱的观点，10Y 国债收益率预计在 1.8%-1.9%区间震荡，债市的阶段 性修复机会或需等到一季度偏后半段。 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 工业消费品带动物价温和修复 2] ——2025 年 12 月 CPI 和 P ...

丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 12 月 CPI 同比续升、PPI 同比降幅收窄，CPI 环比转正、PPI 环比走阔，是季节性因素、低基 数效应和国际有色金属价格上行等共同作用的结果。往前看：1）年末在季节性效应、金价上行 等拉动下，CPI 同比预计或将继续震荡上行。2）在低基数效应、全球资源涨价、"反内卷"有 序推进等影响下，预计 PPI 同比亦或有望震荡回升。展望 2026Q1，经济的价或能迎来"开门 红"，但更多是低基数、季节性、结构性因素所致，经济的量仍待需求端政策提振，而 2026 年 Q1 稳增长压力较大，关注年初降准降息的可能，以及财政前置的力度。 中国经济丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 经济的价，能否迎来"开门红"？ ——12 月通胀数据点评 分析师及联系人 [Table_Title 经济的价，能否迎来"开门红"？ 2] ——12 月通胀数据点评 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 [Table_Author] 于博 宋筱筱 SAC：S0490520090001 SAC：S0490520080011 SFC：BUX667 SFC：BVZ974 请阅读 ...

美银美林在最新报告中明确表示看好中国消费股板块，核心支撑在于三大关键变化：低基数效应打开修复窗口、估值降至历史低位、资产属性呈 现"类可转债"特征。 据追风交易台，报告指出，中国消费板块正经历投资逻辑的结构性转变。当前市场呈现出三大关键特征：一是低基数效应开始显现，多个细分行 业（如白酒、乳制品）的销售额已回落至数年前水平，为2026年业绩的同比修复提供了基础；二是估值回归历史极端低位，板块估值溢价几近消 失，主动基金配置处于冰点，逆向布局空间显现；三是资产属性转向"类可转债"，龙头企业现金流稳健，高股息与回购政策构筑价格防线，兼具 防守性与未来估值修复的弹性。 该板块从过去的成长驱动转向深度价值与防御配置。投资者无需博弈短期反转，可以借助低估值与高股息构建安全垫。 理由一：低基数效应初现 报告指出，2026年多个消费细分领域将迎来同比基数的显著下降窗口。白酒行业已形成极低的市场比较基准；而在乳制品领域，国内前两大企业 的液态奶销售额经历两年深度调整后，已回落至2019年水平。 目前，消费板块12.7倍的前瞻市盈率已接近其历史均值下方两个标准差的极端低位，进入深度低估区间，并开始吸引部分逆向投资者的关注。美 ...

宏观动态报告 利润增速压力显现 —— 2025 年 1-11 月工业企业利润分析 2025 证 12 证 27 证 分析师 张迪 证zhangdi _yj @chinastock.com.cn 证证证证证证证证S0130524060001 铁伟奥 证136-8324 -0373 证tieweiao_yj@chinastock.com.cn 证证证证证证证证S0130525060002 证证证证证证证证 www.chinastock.com.cn 证证证证证证 证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证 1 ⚫ 12 证 27 证证证证证证证证证证 1证11 证证证 证证证证证证证证证证证证证证 证证 66268.6 证证证证证证证 0.1% 证证证 1.9% 证证证证证证证证证证证证 证证证证 125.34 证证证 证证证证证 1.6% 证证证 1.8% 证证11 证证证 证证 证证 证证 13.1 % 证证证 -5.5% 证证 ⚫ 低基数效应减弱和 生产端 、利润率 的下滑 是利润 增速收窄 的主要原因。 一 方面，低基数效应对读数的修复 作用 进一步 减弱 ，2024 证 11 证证证证证 证证 ...

投行对该股的评级以增持为主，近90天内共有2家投行给出增持评级，近90天的目标均价为54.46港元。 国泰海通证券股份有限公司最新一份研报给予农夫山泉增持评级，目标价51.92港元。 国泰海通发布研报称，维持农夫山泉(09633.HK)25-27年EPS为1.35/1.62/1.91元，给予35倍PE(25E)，目 标价51.92港元/股(港元兑人民币0.91汇率计算)，维持"增持"评级。考虑到旺季旺销，低基数效应，以及 聚酯瓶片有利价格，继续看好25H2业绩良好表现。 机构评级详情见下表： 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成 投资建议。 农夫山泉港股市值2262.58亿港元，在饮料制造行业中排名第1。主要指标见下表： ...

投资要点： 股 票 研 预期不变，信心充沛 农夫山泉(9633) 农夫山泉（9633）跟踪点评 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | [Table_Invest] 评级： | 增持 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 訾猛(分析师) | 021-38676442 | zimeng@gtht.com | S0880513120002 | | | | 颜慧菁(分析师) | 021-23183952 | yanhuijing@gtht.com | S0880525040022 | [当前价格 Table_CurPrice] (港元)： | 45.84 | | 张宇轩(分析师) | 021-23154172 | zhangyuxuan@gtht.com | S0880525040039 | | | 本报告导读： 考虑到旺季旺销，低基数效应，以及聚酯瓶片有利价格，继续看好 25H2 业绩良好 表现。 | | | 风险提示。（1）食安风险，（2）需求不及预期，（3）成本波动。 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | - ...

Group 1: Profit Growth Analysis - Profit growth for industrial enterprises from January to October 2025 is 1.9%, down from 3.2% in the previous period[1] - The main reasons for the narrowing profit growth are the weakening low base effect and declining production[1] - Industrial production in October 2025 decreased by 4.9%, a drop of 1.6 percentage points compared to the previous month[1] Group 2: Price and Profit Margin Trends - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a slight improvement in October 2025, increasing by 0.1% compared to a decline of 2.1% in the previous month[1] - Profit margins slightly decreased to 5.25% from 5.26% in the previous month[1] - Mining industry profit margins improved slightly, while manufacturing and utility sectors saw a decline compared to September[1] Group 3: Demand and Inventory Dynamics - Weak demand has led to passive inventory accumulation, with inventory levels increasing by 6.82% in October 2025[1] - The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell by 1.2 percentage points to 47.3% in October 2025, indicating contraction in manufacturing activity[1] Group 4: Future Outlook and Investment Implications - Future profit trends are expected to stabilize after short-term fluctuations, supported by domestic demand expansion policies[2] - External demand and geopolitical risks will also influence future profit trajectories[2] - Equipment and high-tech manufacturing sectors remain the main drivers of profit growth[1]

Core Insights - The personal income tax revenue in China reached 1.3363 trillion yuan from January to October 2025, showing a year-on-year growth of 11.5%, with a significant increase in October at 27.3% [2][3] Tax Revenue Performance - Domestic value-added tax grew by 4% year-on-year, while domestic consumption tax reached 1.439 trillion yuan, increasing by 2.4%. Corporate income tax amounted to 3.9182 trillion yuan, with a growth of 1.9% [2] Factors Driving Growth - The high growth in personal income tax is attributed to improved tax administration efficiency and diversification of tax sources, reflecting significant progress in tax governance capabilities [3] - Enhanced tax collection measures, particularly for overseas income, have contributed to the increase, with a notable rise in compliance among high-net-worth individuals [4][6] Overseas Income Management - The tax administration system has been refined, leading to better monitoring of previously unregulated tax sources, with tax authorities actively reaching out to taxpayers regarding overseas income reporting [4][5] - The implementation of the "Golden Tax Phase IV" has improved the accuracy of identifying cross-border income and hidden income [4] Capital Market Influence - The active capital market has led to a surge in capital income, which, along with resilient income among high-income groups and a low base effect, has supported the growth of personal income tax [7] - The capital market's performance is expected to contribute approximately 330 billion yuan to personal income tax in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of about 40 billion yuan [7] Economic Recovery and Base Effect - Economic recovery since the third quarter of 2025 and a low base from the previous year have amplified the growth rate of personal income tax [8] - The transition from a "coarse" to a "fine" tax governance model is expected to ensure stable growth in personal income tax revenue in the future [8]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs reported that Pinduoduo (PDD.US) had mixed results in Q3, with operating profit achieving year-on-year growth for the first time in 2025, but online advertising revenue growth fell to single digits, significantly below expectations [1] Financial Performance - The company's management remains cautious, reiterating plans to accelerate reinvestment, which may lead to quarterly performance volatility [1] - Investment and equity income exceeded expectations, indicating improvements in the unit economics and profit margins of the Temu division [1] Revenue and Profit Forecasts - Goldman Sachs lowered its revenue forecasts for Pinduoduo for 2025 and 2026 by 2% to 3%, while raising the adjusted net profit forecast for 2025 by 4% [1] - However, net profit forecasts for the subsequent two years were reduced by 8% and 9%, primarily due to increased investments in the domestic platform ecosystem and intensified competition and regulatory changes faced by Temu [1] Future Projections - The firm expects Pinduoduo's adjusted net profit to decline by 15% in Q4 and to grow by 14% in 2026, with a projected 30% year-on-year growth in net profit for 2027 [1] Target Price Adjustment - Goldman Sachs adjusted its target price for Pinduoduo from $157 to $147, maintaining a "Buy" rating, and continues to anticipate that low base effects in the coming years will provide valuation re-rating opportunities [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that Samsonite (01910) has seen a stock price increase of over 6%, currently trading at HKD 16.26 with a transaction volume of HKD 51.0383 million [1] - The company plans to hold a board meeting on November 12 to consider and approve the quarterly performance report for the three and nine months ending September 30, 2025 [1] - According to a report from Daiwa, the expected revenue decline for Samsonite in Q3 is projected to narrow to 1.4% due to a low base effect, aligning with management's guidance [1] Group 2 - Daiwa anticipates an overall improvement in the performance of the Tumi brand, while American Tourister is expected to remain the weakest brand [1] - The firm believes that with sustained global travel demand, a stronger recovery is expected by 2026 [1]