非银板块低配
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非银周报:非银板块仍处于低配状态,短期资金面扰动不改基本面向上趋势-20260125
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2026-01-25 12:39
Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the securities sector, indicating a potential for significant gains in the coming months, particularly for quality brokers with valuation mismatches [2][43]. Core Insights - The securities sector remains underweight, with a public fund holding value of 11.8 billion yuan, reflecting a 14% quarter-on-quarter increase. The industry allocation ratio is at 0.73%, which is still 2.67 percentage points below the benchmark, although this gap has narrowed by 0.29 percentage points [1]. - The monthly active users of securities apps reached 175 million in December 2025, marking a 1.75% increase from the previous month and a 2.26% increase year-on-year, setting a new monthly record for 2025 [1][39]. - The report anticipates strong profit growth for brokers in Q1 2026, highlighting opportunities for sector rebound [1]. Summary by Sections Securities Sector - The report notes that the securities sector is currently underweight, with a public fund holding value of 11.8 billion yuan, which is a 14% increase quarter-on-quarter. The industry allocation ratio stands at 0.73%, still 2.67 percentage points below the benchmark, but this gap has narrowed by 0.29 percentage points [1]. - Monthly active users of securities apps reached 175 million in December 2025, reflecting a 1.75% month-on-month growth and a 2.26% year-on-year increase, achieving a new monthly high for 2025 [1][39]. - The report projects a bright profit growth outlook for brokers in Q1 2026, suggesting a focus on rebound opportunities within the sector [1]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on three main lines: 1. Strongly recommend high-quality brokers with significant valuation and performance mismatches, particularly highlighting Guotai Junan [2]. 2. Attention to Sichuan Shuangma, which is positioned well in the technology sector and is expected to benefit from investments in gene therapy [2]. 3. Highlighting multi-financial firms with impressive performance growth, suggesting a focus on Yixin Group, Far East Horizon, and Jiufang Zhitu Holdings [2]. Insurance Sector - The latest research indicates that the preset interest rate for life insurance is at 1.89%, with expectations that it will not decrease further in 2026 [3]. - China Pacific Insurance announced a profit increase forecast of 215%-225% for 2025, primarily due to favorable investment conditions and tax adjustments [4]. - The report maintains a positive recommendation for the insurance sector, emphasizing the upward trend in both short-term and long-term fundamentals [5]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the A-share market has shown mixed performance, with the non-bank financial sector underperforming the broader market [11]. - The report also notes significant growth in the issuance of equity funds and bond underwriting, indicating a robust capital market environment [17]. Regulatory Updates - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has released new guidelines for the performance benchmarks of publicly offered securities investment funds, aiming to enhance transparency and accountability in the sector [38].