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申万宏源研究晨会报告-20260123
Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The bull market for gold is not over, with macro factors remaining optimistic and short-term fluctuations driven by geopolitical events [3][11][13] - Key macro pricing factors for gold have not changed, indicating a sustained upward potential in the medium to long term [3][13] - Micro indicators show that while gold price deviations are high, the RSI is healthy, and ETF inflows continue to rise, suggesting no clear direction for gold prices [3][13] Group 2: Semiconductor Industry Insights - TSMC's revenue for December 2025 is projected to grow by 20.4% year-on-year, driven by high-margin advanced processes and strong demand from AI/HPC sectors [4][12] - The advanced process capacity is fully loaded, with HPC accounting for 55% of revenue and 3nm technology representing 28% of wafer revenue [4][12] - TSMC's guidance for Q1 2026 indicates revenue between $34.6 billion and $35.8 billion, with a gross margin of 63%-65%, reflecting strong demand visibility in AI [4][14] Group 3: Beauty Industry Trends - The South Korean beauty market has undergone several growth and decline phases, with the current phase focusing on global market expansion and reducing reliance on China [18][20] - New brands like APR and Silicon2 are outperforming traditional giants, indicating a shift in market dynamics and consumer preferences [20] - The report highlights the importance of innovation in product formulation and packaging, with South Korean brands leading in areas like cushion packaging and functional skincare products [20]