黄金行情分析 12月29日，从上周五的收线来看，本周有望延续震荡上涨的节奏，若出现回调仍可关注做多机会。需要 注意的是，周二和周三需要警惕市场回撤的风险，因为公布美联储会议纪要，也因为元旦假期来临，更 因为月线和年线收官。从走势上来看，黄金创下新的历史高点之后，虽说没有延续性走强，但整体还是 偏向多头，横盘抗跌的一个走势，目前区间维持在4490-4550一线区间波幅，从当前的节奏上来看回落 做多依旧是最好的选择！综合来看，黄金短线操作思路上建议回调做多为主，反弹做空为辅，上方短期 重点关注4550-4560一线阻力，下方短期重点关注4490-4500一线支撑。具体操作策略我会在盘中提示， 及时关注。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：陈平 黄金行情分析 12月29日，从上周五的收线来看，本周有望延续震荡上涨的节奏，若出现回调仍可关注做多机会。需要 注意的是，周二和周三需要警惕市场回撤的风险，因为公布美联储会议纪要，也因为元旦假期来临，更 因为月线和年线收官。从走势上来看，黄金创下新的历史高点之后，虽说没有延续性走强，但整体还是 偏向多头，横盘抗跌的一个走势，目前区间维持在4490-4550一线 ...

Market Performance Review - In December, all major stock indices rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 1.93%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 4.77%, and the ChiNext Index by 6.27% as of December 26 [4][13] - The performance varied by style, with stable style down by 0.16%, financial style up by 2.21%, consumption style down by 0.75%, cyclical style up by 5.57%, and growth style up by 5.14% [4][13] - The large-cap index rose by 2.62%, mid-cap index by 5.90%, and small-cap index by 4.47% [4][13] - The market experienced a rebound in the fourth week of December, driven by the appreciation of the RMB and significant net inflows into the A500 ETF [4][13] Industry Insights - The leading sectors in December included defense and military (up 13.75%), communication (up 13.66%), and non-bank financials (up 8.30%), while the weakest sectors were media (down 3.96%) and real estate (down 3.30%) [18] - The focus on themes and events drove the market, with commercial aerospace and Hainan Free Trade Zone being the most prominent themes in December [18] Future Market Outlook - The A-share market in January is expected to face both challenges and opportunities, with attention needed on industry and individual stocks [5][33] - The potential for overseas disturbances, particularly regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, could impact market volatility [5][33] - Despite the lack of strong domestic stimulus policies and economic data, there are still strong themes and sectors that can perform well [5][33] Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on thematic investments, particularly in commercial aerospace, non-ferrous metals, and consumer sectors [6][33] - The establishment of a commercial aerospace department and the release of a development action plan for commercial aerospace are seen as positive indicators for investment in this sector [6][33] - The report highlights the potential for a continued rally in the non-ferrous sector, particularly gold, driven by rigid demand and upcoming U.S. Treasury bond supply peaks [6][33]

当"史诗级行情"演变成经纪商的压力测试，似是一场无硝烟的"战争"。 从表面上看，2025年本该是外汇与差价合约（CFD）行业的"黄金年"。 地缘冲突频发、全球政治不确定性加剧、股市剧烈波动、比特币与大宗商品轮番登场……任何一条单独拎出来，理论上都足以点燃交易热情，更不用说它 们同时出现。 但现实却给不少外汇经纪商泼了一盆冷水。 一个越来越清晰的问题浮出水面：黄金的持续上涨与交易量爆发，真的在"温水煮青蛙"般"扼杀"外汇经纪商吗？ 表面繁荣？成交量创历史新高 从数据层面看，2025年并不缺"好消息"。 多家头部经纪商在年内录得历史最高单日交易量。比如，波兰经纪商XTB在2025年第二、第三季度，单季度成交量首次突破1万亿美元；Capital.com在前 三季度成交量已达2.25万亿美元，远超其去年全年纪录。 此外，IC Markets 今年第三季度的交易量表现非常强劲，本季度月均交易量约为1.34万亿美元，日均交易量约为611亿美元，使其在全球零售外汇/衍生品 经纪商中继续保持领先地位。 芝商所CME的黄金E-mini与微型黄金（Micro Gold）期货的交易量同比成交量分别暴增223%与175%。 如果只看 ...

在美联储年内第三次降息如期落地后，金价持续走高，跟踪黄金股板块的黄金股票ETF（517400）盘中涨超2%，连续4日迎资金净流入。 资料来源：Wind 黄金股票ETF（517400）聚焦黄金股板块，也是投资者把握黄金市场机遇的理想工具。该基金选取内地与香港市场中市值较大且业务涉及黄金采掘、冶炼、 销售的上市公司证券作为指数样本，全面反映黄金产业上市公司的整体表现，或可逢低布局。 风险提示：提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供参考，不代表其未来表现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或 保证。观点可能随市场环境变化而调整，不构成投资建议或承诺。提及基金风险收益特征各不相同，敬请投资者仔细阅读基金法律文件，充分了解产品要 素、风险等级及收益分配原则，选择与自身风险承受能力匹配的产品，谨慎投资。 美联储降息如期落地，2026年或迎新一轮宽松周期 美联储降息如期落地。当地时间12月10日，美联储宣布降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至3.50%~3.75%，这是继9月17日，10月29日之后的年 内第三次降息，幅度均为25个基点。本次降息落地前市场已经有充分预期，关注点更多在于美 ...

资料来源: Wind 美联储降息如期落地。当地时间12月10日，美联储宣布降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至3.50%-3.75%，这是继9月17日，10月29日之后的年 内第三次降息，幅度均为25个基点。本次降息落地前市场已经有充分预期，关注点更多在于美联储对后续降息路径的态度。点阵图中位数维持了2026年仅 有1次降息的预测，鲍威尔也表示当前利率处于"有利位置"，表明后续降息门槛可能提高。 资料来源: Wind 12月11日黄金基金ETF（518800）收涨0.18%，黄金股票ETF（517400）收涨0.07%。 历史经验多次验证了美联储宽松政策对黄金行情的支撑作用。当前国际黄金现货价格在4200左右震荡。全球央行持续购金行为与地缘政治风险构成的长期 结构性支撑依然稳固， 投资者可适当关注黄金基金ETF（518800）与弹性更好的黄金股票ETF（517400）。 风险提示： 投资人应当充分了解基金定期定额投资和零存整取等储蓄方式的区别。定期定额投资是引导投资人进行长期投资、平均投资成本的一种简单易行的投资方 式。但是定期定额投资并不能规避基金投资所固有的风险，不能保证投资人获得收益，也不是替代 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.70% to 3873.32 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 1.27%. The ChiNext Index and the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index decreased by 1.41% and 1.55%, respectively. Over 4300 stocks declined throughout the day, indicating weak market sentiment [1][1][1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 786 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, lowering the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.50%-3.75%. This marks the third rate cut of the year, following reductions on September 17 and October 29 [1][1] - The Fed's dot plot maintains a forecast of only one rate cut in 2026, with Chairman Powell indicating that current rates are at a "favorable position," suggesting a higher threshold for future cuts. The Fed also restarted balance sheet expansion operations, enhancing market expectations for monetary easing [1][1] Gold Market Insights - Historical trends show that the Fed's easing policies support gold prices. Current global central bank gold purchases and geopolitical risks provide long-term structural support for gold [1][1] - Investors are advised to consider gold-related investments, such as gold ETFs (518800) and more flexible gold stock ETFs (517400) [1][1] High Voltage Power Transmission Sector - The high voltage power transmission sector saw gains, with the approval of the Zhejiang high voltage AC ring network project by the National Development and Reform Commission, which is expected to be operational by 2029 with a total investment of approximately 29.3 billion yuan [2][2] - This year, two high voltage DC lines and three high voltage AC lines have been approved, indicating strong construction demand. The acceleration of the national unified electricity market and clear demand for cross-regional power transmission are expected to sustain investment growth in the electricity sector during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [2][2] - Given the anticipated growth in domestic power grid investment and opportunities for equipment exports due to overseas power shortages, the outlook for the power grid sector remains positive. Investors are encouraged to consider the power grid ETF (561380) [2][2]

一切都在预料当中，美联储2025年最后一次降息落锤了，如市场预期一致降息25个基点。 意料之外的是美联储每月从12日开始30天内购买400亿美元国库券，以维持充足的准备金供应。 早上就有用户问我美联储每月购债400亿美元，是什么意思？其实这次的购债不是QE，只是为了缓解短期融资成本。 美联储用"发糖"的方式安抚市场，主要意图还是表达美国经济具有一定韧性而已，并非启动大规购债刺激市场，不必过度解读。 美联储点阵图显示，在19位官员中，有7位官员认为2026年不应降息，有4位官员认为应累计降息25个基点，有4位官员认为应累计降息50个基点，有2位官 员认为应累计降息75个基点，有1位官员认为应累计降息100个基点，有1位官员认为应累计降息150个基点。 从点阵图来看，2026年美联储降息态度分岐较大，内部矛盾重重，再加上美联储主席鲍威尔2026年5月卸任，新主席上任后的态度显的格外重要。 整体而言，美联储依旧处于降息大周期，贸易冲突和就业情况引发的通胀担忧阻碍美联储官员的态度，此次降息落地后黄金市场表面并不强烈，依旧延续 反复震荡行情。 说一下今天黄金行情： 之前，我几次提及影响黄金接下来牛市延续的根本在于新主席 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the **gold market** and the **monetary policy** of the **Federal Reserve** in the context of the U.S. economy and global financial conditions [1][21]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Expectations**: - The market's expectation for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve fluctuated significantly, dropping from a 100% expectation in early October to 29.6% by November 19, before rising again to 80% [5]. - There is notable internal disagreement within the Federal Reserve regarding the timing of rate cuts, with 5 out of 12 voting members supporting a pause, 4 favoring a cut, and 3 being neutral [5]. 2. **Impact of Employment Data**: - Mixed signals from U.S. employment data have created market uncertainty, with private sector data indicating deterioration and a rise in unemployment rates [6]. - The expectation for poor employment data in Q4 adds to market unpredictability [6]. 3. **Long-term Monetary Policy Outlook**: - The market anticipates that by the end of 2026, the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates to between 2.75% and 3%, indicating a sustained likelihood of loose monetary policy [8]. 4. **U.S. Fiscal Situation**: - The U.S. fiscal deficit is projected to be historically high, with expenditures exceeding revenues by 1.34 times, leading to increased pressure for rate cuts to alleviate fiscal burdens [13][14]. - The total U.S. national debt exceeds $38 trillion, constituting 125% of GDP, which raises concerns about fiscal sustainability and supports gold prices [13][14]. 5. **Global Central Bank Policies**: - Central banks worldwide are expected to maintain accommodative monetary policies to address high debt levels, which may enhance the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset [21]. 6. **Gold Demand Dynamics**: - Gold demand remains robust, with total demand increasing by 44% year-over-year, driven primarily by investment demand from central banks and private investors [22]. - Tether, a major stablecoin issuer, has significantly increased its physical gold holdings, further supporting gold demand [24]. 7. **Geopolitical and Economic Risks**: - The potential for a U.S. government shutdown poses risks to market liquidity and could increase demand for safe-haven assets like gold [15]. - The upcoming 2026 midterm elections may influence U.S. domestic policies and external trade relations, impacting market conditions [18]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content 1. **Inflation Data Uncertainty**: - The reliability of inflation data is compromised due to government shutdowns, complicating the assessment of the Federal Reserve's rate adjustment decisions [7]. 2. **Shadow Chairperson Influence**: - The concept of a "shadow chairperson" could impact market expectations and monetary policy direction, especially if the current chair's term ends before 2026 [12]. 3. **Central Bank Gold Purchases**: - Despite some countries reducing gold holdings, the overall trend among central banks remains one of increasing gold reserves, with 95% of surveyed banks indicating plans to continue purchasing gold [25][26]. 4. **China's Gold Accumulation Strategy**: - China has consistently increased its gold reserves over the past year, reflecting a strategic commitment to gold accumulation despite rising prices [27]. 5. **Silver Market Volatility**: - The silver market exhibits significant volatility, influenced by macroeconomic conditions, with historical patterns suggesting potential price adjustments following substantial increases [30]. This comprehensive summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call records, highlighting the dynamics of the gold market and the implications of U.S. monetary policy.

Group 1 - The core focus of the upcoming Shenzhen Financial Expo is on gold, with discussions centered around its short-term adjustments and potential price movements before the Spring Festival [1][2] - The gold market has become a national topic of interest, particularly in Shenzhen, which is the largest gold distribution center in China, accounting for over 90% of the country's gold circulation [2] - The recent fluctuations in gold prices highlight the volatility of the market, with significant price points identified at $4055 as a resistance level and $4000 as a critical support level [2][4] Group 2 - The analysis of gold's price movements indicates a potential rebound or reversal, with $4110 being a key threshold to determine the market's direction [4] - The current trading range for gold is narrowing, with expectations of oscillation between $4100 and $4000, suggesting a cautious approach to trading strategies [4] - The market sentiment reflects a mix of optimism and caution, with strategies being discussed on whether to adopt an active or defensive approach in response to the evolving gold market [2]

Group 1 - Recent gold prices have surged significantly, reaching $4,200 before entering a period of fluctuation [1] - In the medium to long term, factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, increasing uncertainty in overseas macro policies, and the global trend of "de-dollarization" continue to support gold prices [1] - However, the lack of clear catalysts recently, combined with the rapid pace of previous increases, suggests that gold prices may maintain a period of fluctuation in the short term [1] Group 2 - Continuous inflow into gold ETF funds has been observed, with the gold ETF (518800) attracting nearly 1 billion yuan over five consecutive days [2] - The gold ETF (518800) closely tracks gold price movements, with one unit corresponding to 1 gram of gold, serving as a holding certificate for physical gold, and offers good liquidity for investors [2] - Investors interested in gold ETF opportunities are encouraged to consider related investment strategies [2]