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镍:多空博弈加剧,镍价窄幅震荡,不锈钢:供需现实拖累,原料成本限制下方空间
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-06 01:42
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The nickel market experiences intensified long - short game, with nickel prices fluctuating in a narrow range. The stainless - steel market is dragged down by supply - demand realities, while raw material costs limit the downside space [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract is 120,910, down 890 from T - 5; the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract is 12,960, up 40 from T - 5. The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel main contract is 84,818, down 35,117 from T - 5; the trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract is 79,826, down 58,935 from T - 5 [2] - **Industrial Chain Data**: The price of 1 imported nickel is 121,100, down 650 from T - 5; the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) is 916, up 5 from T - 5. The price of 304/2B coil - rough edge (Wuxi) Hongwang/Beibuwan is 13,000, up 100 from T - 5; the price of 304/2B coil - trimmed edge (Wuxi) Taigang/Zhangpu is 13,500, up 100 from T - 5 [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On March 3, Ontario, Canada's provincial governor Ford proposed that Ontario's minerals are key in the tariff struggle and may stop exporting nickel to the US [2] - On April 27, the first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI nickel - iron RKEF, EPC - contracted by China ENFI, successfully produced nickel - iron, entering the trial production stage. The project is located in Southeast Sulawesi, Indonesia, producing 22% grade nickel - iron, with an annual output of about 12,500 tons of metallic nickel per line [3] - Environmental violations were found in the Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park (IMIP), and the relevant department may fine the confirmed illegal companies and will audit the entire industrial park [3][4] - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year to improve industry governance and better control coal and ore supplies [4] - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) revealed that the government - approved 2025 work plan and budget (RKAB) production is 364 million tons, higher than the 2024 target of 319 million tons [4] - Two Indonesian nickel - iron smelting industrial parks' EF production lines have suspended production due to long - term losses, with an expected impact on nickel - iron production of about 1,900 metal tons per month [4][5] - Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) emphasized that mining and coal companies must resubmit the 2026 work plan and budget (RKAB) starting from October 2025 [5] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and that of stainless - steel is 0, indicating a neutral trend for both [6]
镍:矿端支撑有所松动,全球精炼镍边际累库,不锈钢:现实与宏观博弈,钢价震荡运行
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-14 02:25
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Nickel: The support at the mine end is loosening, and there is marginal inventory accumulation of refined nickel globally [1]. - Stainless steel: There is a game between reality and macro factors, and steel prices are oscillating [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Data Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai Nickel was 121,390, with a change of 250 compared to T - 1; the closing price of the main contract of stainless steel was 12,710, with a change of -155 compared to T - 1. The trading volume of the main contract of Shanghai Nickel was 101,921, a decrease of 234 compared to T - 1; the trading volume of the main contract of stainless steel was 156,045, an increase of 55,013 compared to T - 1 [1]. - **Industrial Chain Data**: The price of 1 imported nickel was 121,500, an increase of 1,600 compared to T - 1; the ex - factory price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron was 904, a decrease of 1 compared to T - 1; the price of red土镍矿1.5% (Philippines CIF) was 59, unchanged compared to T - 1 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On March 3, Ontario Premier Ford proposed that Ontario's minerals are crucial in the tariff battle and may stop exporting nickel to the US [1]. - On April 27, the first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI nickel - iron RKEF, EPC - contracted by China ENFI, successfully produced nickel - iron, entering the trial production stage. The project is located in Southeast Sulawesi, Indonesia, producing 22% grade nickel - iron, with an annual production of about 12,500 tons of metallic nickel per line [2]. - An important nickel smelter in an Indonesian metal processing park has resumed production. In March this year, it almost stopped all production due to a tailings pond landslide. The capacity of PT QMB New Energy Materials has recovered to 70% - 80% [3][4]. - An Indonesian cold - rolling mill plans to continue maintenance from June to July, with an expected impact of 110,000 - 130,000 tons, mainly affecting the production of 300 - series stainless steel. In May, it had cut production by 40% - 50% due to the sluggish market [4]. - The Philippine Nickel Industry Association welcomes the removal of the raw ore export ban clause from the final version of the mining fiscal system bill [4]. - Environmental violations were found in the Morowali Industrial Park in Indonesia, including improper wastewater management, air pollution, and the use of unlicensed tailings areas. The government may fine the confirmed illegal companies and will audit the entire park [4]. - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year to improve industry governance and better control coal and ore supplies [5]. - The government - approved 2025 work plan and budget (RKAB) production of Indonesian nickel mining companies is 364 million tons, higher than the 2024 target of 319 million tons [5]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and the trend intensity of stainless steel is 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [6].