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镍:低位震荡运行,不锈钢:预期与现实博弈,钢价震荡运行
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 02:10
Group 1: Investment Ratings - No specific investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Nickel is expected to operate in a low - level oscillatory pattern [1]. - Stainless steel prices will oscillate due to the game between expectations and realities [2]. Group 3: Summary of Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Data Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the main Shanghai nickel contract was 119,830, down 100 from T - 1; the closing price of the main stainless - steel contract was 12,795, down 25 from T - 1. The trading volume of the main Shanghai nickel contract was 90,715, an increase of 27,039 from T - 1; the trading volume of the main stainless - steel contract was 99,736, a decrease of 50,000 from T - 1 [2]. - **Industrial Chain Data**: The price of 1 imported nickel was 120,250, up 200 from T - 1; the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) was 928, up 1 from T - 1. The price of 304/2B coil - rough edge (Wuxi) Hongwang/Beibuwan was 13,050, unchanged from T - 1; the price of 304/2B coil - trimmed edge (Wuxi) Taigang/Zhangpu was 13,700, unchanged from T - 1 [2]. 2. Macro and Industry News - On March 3, Ontario's Premier Ford proposed that Ontario's minerals are key in the tariff struggle and may stop exporting nickel to the US [2]. - On April 27, the first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI nickel - iron RKEF successfully produced nickel - iron, with an annual output of about 12,500 tons of nickel metal per single line [3]. - Environmental violations were found in the Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park, and the ministry may fine the confirmed illegal companies and audit the whole park [3][4]. - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year to improve industry governance [4]. - The approved 2025 production plan and budget (RKAB) output of Indonesian nickel miners is 364 million tons, higher than the 2024 target of 319 million tons [4]. - An Indonesian nickel - iron smelting industrial park suspended all EF production lines due to long - term losses, which is expected to affect the monthly nickel - iron output by about 1,900 metal tons [4][5]. - Indonesian mining and coal companies must resubmit the 2026 work plan and budget (RKAB) starting from October 2025 [5]. - A Shandong steel mill started maintenance due to the 5% annual production reduction target, suspending the delivery of long - term supply agreements signed in August [5]. - The Indonesian President stated that illegal mining will be severely punished, and reports of 1,063 illegal mines have been received [6]. 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and that of stainless steel is 0, both indicating a neutral view [7].
镍:多空博弈加剧,镍价窄幅震荡,不锈钢:供应弹性现实与宏观预期博弈,钢价震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-08 01:49
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The nickel market is experiencing intensified long - short competition, with nickel prices fluctuating in a narrow range [1]. - The stainless - steel market is facing a game between the reality of supply elasticity and macro - expectations, resulting in steel price fluctuations [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Fundamental Data Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the main Shanghai nickel contract is 121,850, up 780 from T - 1; the closing price of the main stainless - steel contract is 13,000, up 65 from T - 1. The trading volume of the main Shanghai nickel contract is 96,611, up 8,771 from T - 1; the trading volume of the main stainless - steel contract is 85,499, up 3,480 from T - 1 [2]. - **Industrial Chain Data**: The price of 1 imported nickel is 121,350, up 50 from T - 1; the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) is 919, up 1 from T - 1. The price of 304/2B coil - rough edge (Wuxi) is 13,050, unchanged from T - 1; the price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,440, up 40 from T - 1 [2]. 3.2. Macro and Industry News - On March 3, Ontario Premier Ford proposed that Ontario's minerals are crucial in the tariff fight and may stop exporting nickel to the US [2]. - On April 27, the first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI nickel - iron RKEF, EPC - contracted by China ENFI, successfully produced nickel - iron, entering the trial - production stage. The project is located in Southeast Sulawesi, Indonesia, producing 22% nickel - iron with a single - line annual metal - nickel output of about 12,500 tons [3]. - Environmental violations were found in the Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park, including improper wastewater management, air pollution, and the use of unlicensed tailing areas. The government may fine the confirmed illegal companies and will audit the entire park [3]. - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year to improve industry governance and control coal and ore supply [4]. - The approved 2025 production plan and budget (RKAB) output of Indonesian nickel - mining companies is 364 million tons, higher than the 2024 target of 319 million tons [4]. - An Indonesian nickel - iron smelting industrial park has suspended all EF production lines due to long - term losses, which is expected to reduce nickel - iron output by about 1,900 metal tons per month [4][5]. - Indonesian mining and coal companies must resubmit their 2026 work plans and budgets (RKAB) starting in October 2025 [5]. - Due to capacity limitations and a 5% annual production reduction target, a Shandong steel mill has started maintenance, suspending the delivery of long - term supply agreements signed in August [5]. 3.3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and the trend intensity of stainless steel is 0, both indicating a neutral market sentiment [6].
镍:多空博弈加剧,镍价窄幅震荡,不锈钢:供需现实拖累,原料成本限制下方空间
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-06 01:42
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The nickel market experiences intensified long - short game, with nickel prices fluctuating in a narrow range. The stainless - steel market is dragged down by supply - demand realities, while raw material costs limit the downside space [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract is 120,910, down 890 from T - 5; the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract is 12,960, up 40 from T - 5. The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel main contract is 84,818, down 35,117 from T - 5; the trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract is 79,826, down 58,935 from T - 5 [2] - **Industrial Chain Data**: The price of 1 imported nickel is 121,100, down 650 from T - 5; the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) is 916, up 5 from T - 5. The price of 304/2B coil - rough edge (Wuxi) Hongwang/Beibuwan is 13,000, up 100 from T - 5; the price of 304/2B coil - trimmed edge (Wuxi) Taigang/Zhangpu is 13,500, up 100 from T - 5 [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On March 3, Ontario, Canada's provincial governor Ford proposed that Ontario's minerals are key in the tariff struggle and may stop exporting nickel to the US [2] - On April 27, the first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI nickel - iron RKEF, EPC - contracted by China ENFI, successfully produced nickel - iron, entering the trial production stage. The project is located in Southeast Sulawesi, Indonesia, producing 22% grade nickel - iron, with an annual output of about 12,500 tons of metallic nickel per line [3] - Environmental violations were found in the Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park (IMIP), and the relevant department may fine the confirmed illegal companies and will audit the entire industrial park [3][4] - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year to improve industry governance and better control coal and ore supplies [4] - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) revealed that the government - approved 2025 work plan and budget (RKAB) production is 364 million tons, higher than the 2024 target of 319 million tons [4] - Two Indonesian nickel - iron smelting industrial parks' EF production lines have suspended production due to long - term losses, with an expected impact on nickel - iron production of about 1,900 metal tons per month [4][5] - Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) emphasized that mining and coal companies must resubmit the 2026 work plan and budget (RKAB) starting from October 2025 [5] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and that of stainless - steel is 0, indicating a neutral trend for both [6]
镍:消息面扰动情绪,基本面承压运行,不锈钢:现实与宏观博弈,钢价震荡运行
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-17 01:50
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel market is affected by news, and its fundamentals are under pressure; the stainless - steel market is in a game between reality and macro factors, and steel prices fluctuate [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 120,550, with changes of 1,170 compared to T - 1, 1,410 compared to T - 5, etc. The closing price of the main contract of stainless steel is 12,670, with a change of - 25 compared to T - 1. The trading volume of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 131,554, and that of the main contract of stainless steel is 151,703 [1] - **Industrial Chain Data**: The price of 1 imported nickel is 121,450, the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) is 900, and the price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,220. There are also data on price differences, premiums, and other indicators [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - In March, Ontario, Canada, may stop exporting nickel to the US due to tariff threats [1] - In April, the first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI nickel - iron RKEF successfully produced nickel - iron and entered the trial - production stage, with an annual output of about 12,500 tons of nickel metal per line [2] - An important nickel smelter in an Indonesian metal processing park has resumed production, and the capacity of PT QMB New Energy Materials has recovered to 70% - 80% [2][3] - An Indonesian cold - rolling mill plans to continue maintenance from June to July, which may affect 110,000 - 130,000 tons of production, mainly 300 - series output, and it cut production by 40% - 50% in May [3] - The Philippine Nickel Industry Association welcomes the removal of the raw - ore export ban clause from the final version of the mining fiscal system bill [3] - Environmental violations were found in the Morowali Industrial Park in Indonesia, and the government may fine the confirmed illegal companies and audit the entire park [3] - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year [3] - The government - approved 2025 production plan and budget (RKAB) output of Indonesian nickel - mining companies is 364 million tons, higher than the 2024 target of 319 million tons [4] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and that of stainless steel is 0, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [-2, 2] interval [5]