Core Viewpoint - The insurance industry is facing increasing challenges in asset-liability matching due to continuous reductions in preset interest rates, which lower liability costs but may negatively impact business scale. The shift towards equity investments is seen as a key solution to enhance investment returns and alleviate the pressure from interest rate spreads [1][11]. Group 1: Interest Rate Adjustments and Business Impact - The downward adjustment of preset interest rates has reduced the liability costs for insurance companies but may affect their business scale. The proposed dynamic adjustment mechanism for preset interest rates in 2024 is crucial for asset-liability matching [2]. - The expectation of "炒停" (suspension of sales) may lead to a return to normal premium growth rates, providing sufficient funds for investment on the asset side [2]. Group 2: Asset Allocation and Investment Strategies - In the context of asset scarcity, insurance companies have seen their fixed-income asset allocation approach 50%, with investment returns nearing liability costs, leading to accumulated risks from interest rate spreads [1][11]. - The regulatory environment has increased the upper limit for equity investment by insurance funds to 50%, allowing for significant potential in stock market investments [11]. - Insurance funds can benefit from participating in private placements, which offer discounted returns and can be accounted for in OCI (Other Comprehensive Income) to smooth profit fluctuations [24]. - Strategic investments through "locked-price private placements" can yield higher returns and allow deeper involvement in corporate governance [33]. - The "shareholding" strategy enables insurance companies to select investment targets that better match their risk-return profiles [34]. Group 3: Historical Context and Future Outlook - Historical adjustments to preset interest rates have varied significantly, with the latest adjustments in 2023 reducing the upper limit for preset interest rates to 3% for ordinary life insurance [4]. - The insurance industry's premium income has shown rapid growth, with a steady increase in the balance of insurance funds, primarily allocated to fixed-income assets [11][15]. - The average return from strategic investments has exceeded 50% since the introduction of new refinancing regulations in 2020, indicating a favorable environment for insurance companies to engage in equity investments [33].

▍ 预定利率下调降低了保险公司负债成本，但可能会影响展业规模。 预定利率与国债利率走势趋同，2 0 2 4年提出的预定利率动态调节机制要求定期调整评估利率，对寿险公司资产负债匹配有重 要作用。利率下行周期中，预定利率下调通过提高折现因子推高保费价格，触发"炒停"透支需求，2 0 2 5年保险公司"开门 红"整体情况不佳。长期来看，"炒停"预期下保费增速有望回归往年正常水平，为资产端的投资提供充足资金。为保持资产负 债匹配、获得利差益，寿险公司有动力进行各种投资以获得稳定的投资收益。 文 ｜ 明明 章立聪 杨宏宇 高玉森 预定利率调整概况 | 文件名 | 文件标号 | 文件时间 | 内容 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 关于调整保险公司保费预定利率的紧急 | 银发【1997】465 号 | 1997-11-07 | 预定利率上下限调整为年复利 4%至 6.5% | | 通知 | | | | | 中国保险监督管理委员会关于调整寿险 | 保监发【1999】93 号 | 1999-06-10 | 将预定利率调整至 2.5% | | 保单预定利率的紧急通知 | | | | | 中国保监会关于 ...