证 券 研 究 报 告 保险行业周报（20251110-20251114） 25Q3 险资提升核心权益资产配置 本周行情复盘：保险指数上涨 2.62%，跑赢大盘 3.71pct。保险个股表现分化， 太平+10.96%，人保+3.16%，平安+2.99%，太保+1.91%，新华+1.46%，国寿 +1.24%，友邦+1.04%，众安+0.74%，阳光-0.53%，财险-2.75%。10 年期国债 收益率 1.81%，较上周末持平。 本周动态： （1）金融监管总局：①截至 2025Q3，险资资金运用余额达到 37.5 万亿，其 中财产险公司 2.39 万亿，人身险公司 33.73 万亿。②截至 2025Q3，保险公司 综合/核心偿付能力充足率为 186.3%/134.3%，财产险公司综合/核心偿付能力 充足率为 240.8%/212.9%，人身险公司分别对应 175.5%/118.9%，再保险公司 分别对应 246.2%/216.7%。环比来看，仅财产险公司实现偿付能力同比提升。 （2）格隆汇：据联交所，2025 年 11 月 6 日，新天绿色能源获长城人寿增持 773.7 万股。增持后，长城人寿最新持股数目为 ...

Core Insights - The insurance industry in China has solidified its position as the second-largest market globally, with continuous improvement in comprehensive strength during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [1][2] - The life insurance sector has undergone significant changes, including reforms in personal marketing systems and the implementation of the "reporting and operation integration" policy, which has impacted new policy sales [1][2][10] Industry Performance - The original premium income of the insurance industry is projected to reach 5.7 trillion yuan in 2024, a 26% increase from 2020, maintaining over 10% of the global total premium share [2] - The industry has experienced a 61.7% increase in cumulative claims, totaling 9 trillion yuan, and total assets have surpassed 40 trillion yuan, marking a 72% increase since the end of 2020 [2] Policy and Regulatory Changes - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has seen the introduction of several key policies aimed at enhancing the insurance sector, including the promotion of personal pensions and health insurance [2][3] - The implementation of the "reporting and operation integration" policy has reduced average commission levels by 30% across the industry, although it has also created performance pressures for some channels [12] Product Innovation and Market Trends - The life insurance sector has shifted towards dividend insurance products in response to a low-interest-rate environment, with expectations that dividend insurance will account for over 50% of the industry by mid-2024 [8][12] - The health insurance market has seen significant growth, with commercial health insurance providing 1.8 trillion yuan in compensation to patients over the past five years [5] Market Dynamics - The number of personal insurance agents has decreased by over 70% from the historical peak in 2019, leading to a focus on professionalization and efficiency within the sales force [1][11] - The industry is adapting to a low-interest-rate environment, with a series of adjustments to product pricing and design to mitigate risks associated with interest rate differentials [6][7][9] Future Outlook - The insurance industry is expected to continue evolving during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, with opportunities arising from economic growth, an aging population, and technological advancements [13]

Group 1 - The insurance industry is expected to shift towards participating insurance products in 2026 due to resilient liability growth despite a low interest rate environment. Sales of participating insurance have exceeded earlier expectations, which may drive positive growth in new individual premium income and sustain high growth in bank insurance channels [1][2][3] - The participating critical illness insurance is anticipated to boost the sales of protection products, optimize product structure, and diversify revenue sources. However, challenges remain on the asset side, as low interest rates continue to pressure cash investment returns, squeezing the space to cover the rigid costs of life insurance [1][4] - High-quality sales channels and asset-liability matching are deemed crucial for insurance companies to maintain competitive advantages amid uncertainties. Companies such as AIA, Ping An, PICC, and China Taiping are recommended for attention [1][4][10] Group 2 - Participating insurance is rapidly regaining mainstream status after years of stagnation, driven by a rebalancing of interests between insurance companies and customers in a low interest rate environment. Compared to traditional insurance, participating insurance aligns the interests of policyholders and insurers more closely, making it more suitable for the current low-rate context [2][14] - The expected growth rate of new business value (NBV) for listed companies in 2026 is projected to reach around 20%, driven by the resurgence of participating insurance [2][14] Group 3 - The competitive strategy for participating insurance is more complex than traditional insurance, with a focus on establishing an appropriate market image or product persona. Strategies can be categorized into low-risk and high-risk approaches, depending on the target customer’s risk preference and the product's design [3][25] - Companies with high-quality sales channels have more flexibility in choosing their strategic direction, which should align with market image, customer positioning, product design, channel capabilities, and asset matching [3][25] Group 4 - The main challenges for insurance investments in 2026 include stabilizing cash returns and maintaining capital gains. The low interest rate environment is expected to compress cash investment returns, continuing to pose difficulties in covering rigid costs [4][30] - The past two years have seen excellent performance in equity investments, significantly boosting overall investment returns and profits for insurance companies. However, maintaining this level of performance in 2026 will require further advancements [4][32]

Core Viewpoint - The company has demonstrated significant improvement and strong growth in its performance for the first three quarters of 2025, with key indicators showing a solid foundation and a notable strengthening of its fundamentals [1][9]. Group 1: Operating Profit - The operating profit attributable to the parent company reached 116.26 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.2%, with a clear upward trend over three consecutive quarters [2]. - The quarterly growth rates were 2.4% in Q1, 4.9% in Q2, and a notable 15.2% in Q3, indicating robust operational capabilities despite external economic pressures [2]. Group 2: Net Profit - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 132.86 billion yuan, marking an 11.5% year-on-year increase, with Q3 showing a remarkable growth of 45.4% [3]. - The company noted that net profit was influenced by one-time transactions and non-recurring financial factors, yet still achieved double-digit growth [3]. Group 3: Net Assets - As of September 30, the net assets attributable to the parent company reached 986.4 billion yuan, up 6.2% from the beginning of the year, indicating a solid balance sheet [4][5]. - The growth in net assets is linked to the company's stock market investments and earnings, providing a strong foundation for future shareholder returns [4]. Group 4: New Business Value in Life Insurance - The new business value (NBV) for life and health insurance surged by 46.2% year-on-year, with growth rates improving from 34.9% in Q1 to 39.8% in Q2 [6]. - The agent channel saw a 23.3% increase in new business value, while the bancassurance channel experienced a remarkable growth of 170.9%, highlighting the effectiveness of multi-channel development [6]. Group 5: Investment Performance - The non-annualized comprehensive investment return rate was 5.4%, an increase of approximately 1 percentage point year-on-year, showcasing strong investment performance [7][8]. - The company's ability to maintain investment returns above the industry average in a low-interest-rate environment reflects its effective asset management capabilities [8]. Group 6: Overall Market Sentiment - The company's performance signals a further improvement in fundamentals, indicating a shift from mere stability to significant strengthening [9]. - Analysts have raised the target price for the company's H-shares to 70 Hong Kong dollars, suggesting positive market sentiment and potential for stock price recovery [9].

Core Insights - The return of dividend-type critical illness insurance to the market is supported by regulatory guidance aimed at enhancing the attractiveness of health insurance products and addressing the challenges posed by declining preset interest rates [1][3]. Industry Overview - The Financial Regulatory Authority has issued guidelines to promote high-quality development in health insurance, allowing well-rated insurance companies to offer dividend-type long-term health insurance products [1]. - Dividend-type critical illness insurance was popular in the early 2000s but was phased out due to regulatory concerns over complexity and mis-selling [2]. Market Dynamics - Analysts suggest that the reintroduction of dividend-type critical illness insurance can stimulate industry growth by providing a floating income mechanism that enhances product appeal [1][3]. - The current insurance market faces challenges such as intense competition and the need for product differentiation, which dividend insurance can address by offering dynamic coverage that adjusts for inflation [3]. Challenges Ahead - The successful re-entry of dividend-type critical illness insurance will require balancing protection and dividend features, which poses significant actuarial and risk management challenges for insurance companies [5]. - The higher premiums associated with dividend-type products compared to traditional insurance may complicate sales efforts, necessitating clear communication about the uncertainties of dividends to avoid consumer disputes [5]. Strategic Recommendations - Insurance companies are advised to enhance transparency in dividend mechanisms, improve agent training, and leverage big data for pricing optimization to increase product value [5][6]. - The importance of agent channels is emphasized, as they play a crucial role in educating consumers about complex insurance products and matching them with suitable options [6]. Regulatory Developments - The regulatory body plans to expedite the development of supporting guidelines for floating income health insurance products, encouraging insurance companies to diversify their offerings to meet public demand for quality health coverage [6].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese life insurance industry is entering a critical phase of addressing the risks associated with interest spread losses, necessitating a collective response from the industry [1] Industry Summary - The life insurance market in China is undergoing a transformation due to interest rate adjustments, with a significant reduction from 3.5% to 2.0%, a decrease of 150 basis points over three years [3] - The industry is focusing on developing protection-type and variable income products, which are better aligned with customer needs in an aging society [4] - The shift from "incremental expansion" to "stock optimization" is seen as an inevitable process in response to the challenges posed by low interest rates [3] Company Strategy - The company has implemented two major strategic adjustments: strict control of liability costs and a comprehensive transition to dividend insurance products [5] - The proportion of dividend insurance in the company's new business has increased from 6% in 2021 to over 95% currently, reflecting a significant shift in product structure [5] - The company is also advancing a "big health strategy," integrating insurance with health services to build a differentiated competitive edge [5][6] Market Opportunities - The aging population and the rise of chronic diseases present substantial opportunities for health insurance, with the government promoting reforms that create more space for commercial insurance [6] - The company aims to create a comprehensive protection system that addresses various health needs, leveraging international experience and collaboration with banking partners [6][7] - The focus is on developing a product and service system that emphasizes quality healthcare experiences, supported by a strong customer base and global network [7]

Core Viewpoint - The insurance industry in China has shown a strong recovery in premium income, with a total of 4.8 trillion yuan in original insurance premium income for the first eight months of the year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.63% [1] Premium Income Performance - Property insurance premium income reached 1 trillion yuan, growing by 3.65% year-on-year, while life insurance premium income was 3.8 trillion yuan, with a significant growth of 11.32% [1] - In August alone, the insurance industry achieved original premium income of 591.4 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 35.61%, with life insurance premium income at 479.6 billion yuan, up 47.25% year-on-year [4] Market Demand and Trends - The strong demand for insurance and the reduction in the preset interest rate in September have driven the rapid growth in life insurance premiums [2] - Analysts predict that the premium growth rate will gradually decline after September, as the surge in August was largely influenced by the anticipation of rate adjustments [4] Product Structure Adjustment - The life insurance sector is experiencing a shift towards floating yield products, with the proportion of dividend insurance continuously increasing [7][8] - In the first half of the year, dividend insurance accounted for over 50% of the first-year premium income in individual insurance channels, indicating its importance in new premium income [7] Future Outlook - The industry consensus is to adjust product structures and increase the proportion of floating rate products to address challenges posed by low interest rates [8] - Dividend insurance is expected to contribute significantly to the industry's premium income growth for the year, supported by regulatory guidance and proactive transformation by insurance companies [9]

Core Insights - Insurance companies are actively increasing their stakes in listed companies, with 23 companies being targeted this year, matching the total number of stake increases from the previous three years combined [3][7] - The recent acquisition by Great Wall Life Insurance of 1 million shares in New Tian Green Energy has pushed its holding above 5%, triggering regulatory disclosure requirements [4][5] Group 1: Insurance Companies' Activities - Great Wall Life Insurance has increased its stake in New Tian Green Energy from 4.9790% to 5.0027%, with a total holding of 210.4 million shares valued at approximately 804 million HKD [5][6] - In addition to New Tian Green Energy, Great Wall Life has also made significant investments in China Water Affairs, Datang Renewable, and Qin Port Shares this year [6][7] - The total number of stake increases by insurance companies has reached 31 this year, indicating a strong trend in the market [3][7] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Motivations - The surge in stake acquisitions by insurance companies is driven by low interest rates and a need to enhance returns through equity investments [7][8] - New accounting standards have made it beneficial for insurance companies to adjust their accounting measures post-stake acquisition, contributing to profit stability [7][8] - Policy support for increasing insurance funds' investment in A-shares has further encouraged this trend, with a focus on long-term investments [7][8] Group 3: Investment Preferences - Bank stocks are particularly favored by insurance companies, with significant increases in holdings in various banks [8] - Insurance companies are looking for reliable, growth-oriented, and sustainable dividend-paying companies as part of their investment strategy [8] - The current environment of declining interest rates and new accounting standards has heightened the demand for high-dividend stocks among insurance firms [8]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" with expectations of exceeding the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [24]. Core Insights - The average new business cost for listed insurance companies has decreased by 65 basis points year-on-year as of H1 2025, driven by adjustments in preset interest rates and the integration of individual insurance channels [2][12]. - The VIF breakeven yield for listed insurance companies is estimated to be in the range of 2.21% to 3.39%, while the NBV breakeven yield is between 1.5% and 2.89% [2]. - The report indicates that the quality of liability management in the insurance industry is gradually improving, with a potential slowdown in the speed of convergence of "interest spread gains" [12]. Summary by Sections New Business Cost Analysis - The average new business cost for listed insurance companies has shown a significant decline, with a decrease of 61 basis points quarter-on-quarter and 65 basis points year-on-year [2]. - The report anticipates that as new business continues to flow in, the existing cost may trend downward [2]. Breakeven Yield Metrics - The VIF breakeven yield for major insurance companies is as follows: China Life (2.43%), Ping An (2.51%), China Pacific (2.21%), New China Life (3.00%), China Re (3.39%), and Sunshine Insurance (2.80%) [3][10]. - The NBV breakeven yield for the same companies is: China Life (1.50%), Ping An (1.73%), China Pacific (1.76%), New China Life (2.68%), China Re (2.89%), and Sunshine Insurance (2.30%) [11]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends the following order of preference for investment: China Pacific Insurance, China Life H, China Re H, and Sunshine Insurance H. If the equity market continues to outperform expectations, New China Life H is also recommended; if there are signs of recovery in the real estate sector, Ping An is recommended [12].

Core Viewpoint - Xinhua Insurance has shown significant growth in its stock price and operational performance, with a focus on sustainable development and investment value enhancement [1][2][6] Financial Performance - In the first half of the year, Xinhua Insurance achieved original insurance premium income of 121.26 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.7% [2] - The first-year premium income for long-term insurance reached 39.62 billion yuan, up 113.1% year-on-year, while the first-year regular premium income was 25.53 billion yuan, increasing by 64.9% [2] - Renewal premium income was 78.83 billion yuan, reflecting a 1.5% growth [2] Investment Strategy - Xinhua Insurance's total investment assets exceeded 1.7 trillion yuan, growing by 5.1% from the previous year, with an annualized total investment return rate of 5.9% [6][7] - The company has established the Honghu Fund in collaboration with China Life, with plans to invest a total of 46.25 billion yuan across three pilot funds [1][8] - The investment strategy focuses on high-dividend stocks and long-term bonds to mitigate reinvestment risks and enhance overall returns [7][8] Product Development - The company is shifting towards dividend insurance products in response to declining preset interest rates, aiming to meet customer needs and improve operational efficiency [4][5] - A dedicated team has been established to promote the sales of dividend insurance, indicating a strategic pivot in product offerings [4] Channel Strategy - Xinhua Insurance has partnered with 52 banks to enhance its bancassurance channel, which has become a competitive focus for life insurance companies [3] - The bancassurance channel has shown significant growth, with premium income from this channel increasing by 65.1% year-on-year [2][3] Future Outlook - The company plans to focus on stable business growth, optimize business structure, improve business quality, and enhance cost efficiency in the second half of the year [5] - Management emphasizes the importance of maintaining a balance between scale and value in its operational strategy [3][5]