智通财经3月26日讯（记者 王宏）2025年1月监管正式实施人身险产品预定利率动态调节机制，并公布 了首期预定利率研究值为2.34%。按照调节机制要求，当预定利率最高值连续两个季度高于研究值25个 基点以上，有可能触发人身险预定利率调整和产品调整。 4月即将公布的预定利率研究值将如何变化？智通财经记者独家获悉，预定利率研究值的方式存在具体 参考公式，参照5年期LPR、5年期定期存款利率和10年期国债收益率等综合确定。按照当前的市场利率 情况，业内人士预计预定利率四季度有可能下调。也有业内人士对智通财经记者表示，三四季度保险产 品出现规模下架存在一定可能。 预定利率研究值是如何产生的？ 对人身险产品预定利率的引导，监管一直十分重视。 2024年8月，金融监管总局发布《关于健全人身保险产品定价机制的通知》中提出，对人身险产品预定 利率上限进行调整，建立预定利率与市场利率挂钩及动态调整机制。2024年9月，新版"国十条"—— 《关于加强监管防范风险推动保险业高质量发展的若干意见》提出，支持浮动收益型保险发展。 2025年1月10日，智通财经记者曾独家报道，金融监管总局发布了《关于建立预定利率与市场利率挂钩 及动态调 ...

Core Viewpoint - The insurance industry is preparing for a significant shift towards dividend insurance products as the maximum guaranteed interest rates for life insurance are set to decline, reaching historical lows [2][4][10]. Summary by Sections Regulatory Changes - The maximum guaranteed interest rate for ordinary life insurance products has been lowered from 2.5% to 2.0%, and for dividend insurance from 2.0% to 1.75%, effective August 31 [2][3][4]. - This adjustment is a response to the current research value of 1.99%, which is below the previous quarter's 2.13%, triggering the need for a rate cut [3][4]. Industry Response - Major insurers like China Life, Ping An, and China Pacific have announced the rate adjustments, indicating a likely industry-wide response [2][3]. - Insurers have been preparing for this change, with product managers stating they have multiple product plans ready to adapt to the new rates [2][8]. Market Dynamics - The decline in guaranteed interest rates is expected to impact the cash value of ordinary savings-type products negatively, while it may lead to increased premiums for critical illness insurance [6][10]. - The shift towards dividend insurance is seen as a strategy to lower the rigid liability costs for insurers, as these products offer variable returns that can be more attractive in a low-interest environment [10][11]. Future Trends - The proportion of dividend insurance in total premiums is expected to rise significantly, with estimates suggesting it could exceed 50% across the industry [11][12]. - Insurers are focusing on enhancing market sensitivity and operational efficiency to navigate the challenges posed by the declining interest rates [12].

Core Viewpoint - The China Insurance Industry Association held a quarterly meeting regarding the assessment interest rate for life insurance liability reserves, revealing that the current preset interest rate for ordinary life insurance products has dropped to 2.13% [1][2]. Group 1: Current Interest Rate Trends - The preset interest rate research value has decreased below 2.25% for the first time, while the upper limit for traditional insurance products remains at 2.5% and does not require adjustment yet [1][2]. - The preset interest rate research value was initially announced at 2.34% in January, and the latest value of 2.13% exceeds the 25 basis points threshold compared to the previous value [2]. Group 2: Mechanism for Adjusting Interest Rates - The insurance industry is optimizing liability costs in response to declining interest rates, implementing a mechanism that links preset interest rates to market rates for dynamic adjustments [1]. - If the highest preset interest rate for ordinary life insurance products exceeds the preset interest rate research value by 25 basis points for two consecutive quarters, the new product's preset interest rate must be adjusted downwards within two months [1]. Group 3: Future Outlook - If the preset interest rate research value remains below 2.25% in the next quarter, the upper limit for insurance product preset interest rates will be reduced by at least 25 basis points [2]. - Insurance companies are closely monitoring macroeconomic conditions and the trend of preset interest rate research values to adjust product pricing and improve liability quality [2].