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Yuyue· 2025-07-13 19:28
今天听了一些其他行业的创始人 / 成功人士的访谈 & 播客,发现有很多思维模式还是互通的最核心的因素是风口 + 运气,抓住了红利期,然而目前看来找到风口这件事没有太多通法,大部分原因是机缘巧合就好像电商时期,拼多多颠覆了速卖通的过程中也有不少人吃到红利:平台刚起来的时候是商家最容易赚钱的时候,流量不花钱,商家竞争小而不抽离原有体系的原因是对原有的老旧体系心存幻想,在一个领域的沉没成本过高时,很难克服人性改道去新的领域更抽象化的底层思维还是理性人对机会成本的理解 ...
金融破段子 | 从泼天富贵到公告困境,风口说凉就凉?
中泰证券资管· 2025-03-03 10:26
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rapid rise and subsequent decline of the game "I Am Surrounded by Beauties!" and highlights the volatility of trends in the gaming industry, emphasizing the need for a sustainable business model rather than chasing fleeting fads [1][2][3]. Group 1: Game Performance and Market Reaction - "I Am Surrounded by Beauties!" achieved significant success shortly after its launch, with a peak of 65,435 concurrent players and over 30 million in revenue within 24 hours [1]. - The game topped the Steam China sales chart and generated over 1 billion views on social media platforms like Douyin [1]. - The success of the game led to a surge in stock prices for companies associated with the "short drama + game" model, with some stocks nearly doubling in value within 17 trading days [1]. Group 2: Business Model Analysis - The game operates on a buyout model, priced at 42 yuan, allowing players to experience a unique narrative, which is similar to existing female-oriented romance games [4]. - The article suggests that the core competitive advantage lies in content creation, but the sustainability of such content is questionable due to the lack of barriers to entry in artistic creation [4][6]. - The gaming industry's evolution from text-based narratives to interactive experiences is noted, but the article warns that the novelty may wear off quickly as competition increases [5][6]. Group 3: Investment Considerations - The article advises caution for investors, suggesting that companies should not rush to capitalize on trends without a clear understanding of their business model and competitive advantages [6][7]. - It emphasizes the importance of establishing a sustainable competitive edge (moat) in the market, particularly in content creation, which is difficult to maintain over time [6]. - Investors are encouraged to focus on companies that can build a moat rather than those that merely chase trends for short-term gains [6][7].