风机价格企稳，主机毛利率开启修复周期。在风电需求持续提升叠加招标价格反内卷的带动下，主机价 格持续企稳回升，2025 年9 月风机投标均价1610 元/千瓦，同比提升9.2%，因中标至交付有一定周期， 预计高价订单多于26 年交付，风机制造业务有望释放较大利润弹性。公司在手订单处历史高位，截至 2025 年三季度末达52.5GW，同时公司制造业务毛利率正处持续修复通道，24H1 风机业务毛利率 3.75%，同比提升6.29pct，2025H1 修复至 7.97%，同比提升 4.22pcts，随着高价订单的进一步交付，预 计公司制造业毛利率有望持续提升。 投资要点： 全球风电龙头，稳坐潮头十四载。公司是国内领军和全球领先的风电整体解决方案提供商，在国内风电 市场占有率连续14 年排名第一，连续3 年全球第一。受益于风电行业需求回暖，整机价格企稳回升，公 司营收和归母净利持续双增，2025 年公司前三季度公司实现营收481.47 亿元，同增34.34%，归母净利 润25.84 亿元，同增44.21%。 首次覆盖，给予"增持"评级：受益于行业需求提升、风机价格回暖以及公司订单结构优质，公司业绩持 续提升。我们预计2 ...

2025年，受风电主机厂商自律以及下游业主端评标规则变化等因素影响，风电主机环节中标价格体现出 持续回升态势。比地招标网数据显示，2025年1—10月陆上风机平均中标单价为1618元/kW，同比增长 6.86%；陆上风机（含塔筒）平均中标单价为2096元/kW，同比增长9.78%。 与此同时，2025年也是中国风电企业出海大年，整机厂商海外订单创出新高，零部件企业也拿下海外市 场大单。开源证券数据显示，2025年前三季度国内7家整机厂商合计拿下海外19.28GW订单，同比增长 187.8%，出海加速。 低中标价达到1439元/千瓦。整体来看，2025年上半年各机型的中标价格已经全部高于其最低成本价。 不过由于风机业务从招标到交付有一年左右的时间差，目前风电企业风机业务未能完全好转。华龙证券 统计显示，2025年前三季度，国内风电产业风机环节实现营业收入1116.50亿元，同比增长35.81%；实 现归母净利润29.92亿元，同比下降2.73%；实现毛利率11.79%，净利率2.68%。 业内认为，风机中标价格于2024年见底，2025年回升，预计2025年交付价格见底，2026年回升。因此 2026年风机制造 ...

Core Insights - The wind turbine industry is experiencing a slowdown in the trend of larger turbine units due to resource and production constraints, leading to a deceleration in power growth [1][3] - The profitability of wind turbine manufacturers is shifting towards the downstream segment of wind farm development, with a significant increase in the profit share from project development during the 14th Five-Year Plan [2] Industry Trends - The trend of turbine large-scale production is facing limitations, resulting in a decrease in the growth rate of power output. The industry is currently experiencing losses due to low turbine prices, leading to a market cleanup [3] - The market concentration in the wind turbine industry is increasing, with the CR5 rising from 65.0% to 75.0% and CR10 from 91.4% to 98.6% from 2020 to 2024 [3] Price and Profitability - Wind turbine prices have stopped declining and are expected to rise, with a projected 10% increase in prices from January to August 2025. The industry is anticipated to face a cyclical surge in demand [4] - The average bid price for land-based turbines has reached a low point but has been increasing for four consecutive quarters, indicating a potential turning point for profitability in 2026 [4] Domestic Demand - The domestic wind power installation is expected to average over 100 GW annually during the 15th Five-Year Plan, with significant contributions from large base projects and offshore wind [5] - The overall cost of wind power generation remains competitive, and the market is likely to favor wind energy development in the coming years [5] International Market Opportunities - The European offshore wind market is projected to see significant growth, with an expected average addition of 8 GW annually from 2026 to 2030 [6] - The emerging markets in Asia, Africa, and Latin America are anticipated to double their installation growth rates, with a projected CAGR of approximately 16% over the next five years [6] - Domestic wind turbine manufacturers are increasingly entering overseas markets, with a projected market share of 32% in Asia, Africa, and Latin America by 2024 [6] Investment Recommendations - Companies to watch include Goldwind Technology (002202.SZ), Mingyang Smart Energy (601615.SH), Yunda Co., Ltd. (300772.SZ), and SANY Renewable Energy (688349.SH) [7]

Core Viewpoint - SANY Renewable Energy's profitability is under short-term pressure due to intensified competition and declining wind turbine prices, but medium to long-term prospects are optimistic with expected price recovery and accelerated overseas market expansion [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, SANY Renewable Energy achieved operating revenue of 17.792 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.10%, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 9.70% to 1.812 billion yuan [1]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 2.187 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.58%, but net profit turned from profit to loss compared to the previous year [1]. Wind Turbine Price Trends - Wind turbine prices have shown signs of recovery since Q4 of the previous year, with bidding prices in the first four months of this year rising by 5%-10% compared to the previous year [2]. - The industry is moving away from low-price bidding towards valuing product quality and overall cost-effectiveness, influenced by the implementation of the "136 Policy" aimed at promoting high-quality development in renewable energy [2]. Cost Reduction Strategies - Future cost reductions in wind turbine production are expected due to industry synergy, scale effects, and technological advancements [3]. - The company plans to enhance profitability through brand strength, improved sales structure, and quality management [3]. Overseas Market Expansion - 2024 is projected to be a breakthrough year for SANY Renewable Energy's overseas wind turbine business, with expectations for increased order volumes in 2025 [4]. - The global wind energy market is forecasted to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 8.8%, with significant contributions from China's wind energy exports [4]. Competitive Advantages - Chinese wind turbine brands are strengthening their competitiveness overseas due to cost advantages and delivery efficiency [5]. - The overseas market is still in its early stages, with low penetration rates, allowing for growth without significant price competition [5]. Production Capacity Development - SANY Renewable Energy is expanding its overseas production capacity, with ongoing projects in India and Kazakhstan [5]. - The company aims to establish manufacturing bases for offshore wind power and targets over 1 GW of new offshore wind orders by 2025 [6].