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风电出海和风机&光伏历史相对底部的组件会有什么叙事?
2025-10-09 02:00
风电出海和风机&光伏历史相对底部的组件会有什么叙事? 20251006 摘要 欧洲海风市场需求旺盛,塔筒和海缆订单预计在下半年陆续出现,为 2027 年业绩增长提供支撑。金风科技受益于国内订单价格回暖和海外 出海逻辑,值得重点关注。 光伏组件板块目前处于股价底部,性价比较高。硅料价格上涨空间有限, 组件环节的反内卷成为关注重点。底部光伏中的组件是四季度重点关注 方向。 风电行业受多重因素催化,包括山东风电电价高于光伏、欧洲招标超预 期、国内海风开工加速及深远海政策支持。看好风机和两海(特别是出 海)两条主线。 国内风机招标量虽同比下降,但仍处于高位。国际招标量大幅增长,表 明出口景气度高。陆风价格持续回暖,且幅度超预期,运营商更注重风 场全生命周期成本。 金风科技毛利率连续两个季度超预期,净利润环比提升。预计今年收入 约 550 亿元,明年达 670 亿元,净利润今年 6.5 亿元,明年 63 亿元, 是重点推荐标的。 Q&A 风电板块的主要投资方向是什么? 风电板块的投资方向主要集中在两个方面:海风出海和风机板块。首先,国内 市场在 9 月份迎来了招标高峰期,每周有三四个吉瓦的量分布在不同环节,预 计国内三 ...
中国风机出海新增订单保持高增 进一步提供利润弹性 | 投研报告
摘要及投资建议 国信证券近日发布风电产业链双周度跟踪:根据国家能源局数据,2025年8月我国新增 风电装机4.17GW,同比+13%;1-8月新增装机容量57.84GW,同比+72.1%;截至2025年8月 末我国累计风电装机579.01GW,占发电装机总容量的15.7%。近两周铜价格价格上涨 3.2%,环氧树脂和玻纤价格环比持平。 以下为研究报告摘要: 【行业要闻】 海风方面,25年上半年江苏、广东重大项目陆续迎来开工。二季度进入交付旺季;25年 是国管海风开发元年,预计规划、竞配、招标、政策下半年有望落地。"十五五"期间年均海 风装机有望超20GW,远超"十四五"水平。陆风方面,25年行业装机有望达100GW创历史新 高,年初以来零部件企业迎来量价齐增,全年业绩有望大幅增长;上半年主机企业国内制造 盈利磨底,随着涨价后订单的陆续交付,三季度交付端将迎来单价和毛利率双重修复。中国 风机出海方兴未艾,25-26年新增订单保持高增,进一步提供利润弹性。 【投资建议】 根据采招网统计,2025年至今,全国风机累计公开招标容量71.7GW(-13%),其中陆 上风机公开招标容量66.4GW(-12%),海上风机公开 ...
两家公司三季报暴增253%,机构悄加仓抢筹,投资价值显著提升
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-06 01:47
十月,新一轮行情才刚刚拉开帷幕。老周合上咖啡馆的门,将大金重工与宏柏新材的研报小心翼翼地塞进公文包,口中喃喃自语:"真正的机会,往往隐 藏在冰冷的数据背后,不能只盯着那些热闹的新闻头条。"他一边说着,一边又打开了最新的行业研究报告,自言自语道:"有机硅、风电设备这些板块 里,估计还有被市场低估的潜力股,价格已经触底反弹,成本优势明显,值得重点关注的龙头公司,都要仔细研究一番。" 回溯到九月,盘面上早已透露出蛛丝马迹。机构投资者早已悄然潜入,开始秘密建仓,而散户们却仍在迷雾中徘徊,犹豫着是否应该追高,生怕成为被 收割的韭菜。真正的"主角",总是在官方公告发布之前,就已经稳坐钓鱼台,而剩下的"观众",只能亦步亦趋地跟随,盲目地摇旗呐喊。 宏柏新材的异动同样引人注目。九月,高盛、摩根等国际投行对宏柏新材的调研记录,一次又一次地出现在交易所的公告栏上。官方的公告措辞含糊, 实则暗示着明确的信息:外资已经盯上了这家公司,订单已经排满,利润即将迎来翻倍式增长,而新能源胶黏剂,正是这个新故事的核心驱动力。公司 二季度的出货量环比暴涨200%,三季度接到的订单更是像堆积木一样,源源不断。雪球上有网友调侃道:"这技术壁垒,比隔 ...
【大涨解读】风电:三部门发文鼓励装备出海,国内风电开工建设加速+海外需求高增,机构预判行业未来发展将优于光伏
Xuan Gu Bao· 2025-09-18 02:56
Group 1 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the State Administration for Market Regulation, and the National Energy Administration jointly issued a work plan to promote wind power development and encourage equipment exports [1] - The plan includes accelerating the construction of large onshore wind and photovoltaic bases, promoting orderly offshore wind power construction, and encouraging distributed development of wind and solar power [1] - The plan also emphasizes the importance of developing standards and management methods for wind power equipment manufacturing and encourages collaboration among energy developers, equipment manufacturers, and financial institutions for overseas expansion [1] Group 2 - Shandong Province is the first to disclose the results of the mechanism electricity price bidding after the issuance of Document No. 136, indicating a favorable environment for wind power compared to solar power in the future [2] - As of mid-2025, Europe has an installed capacity of approximately 37GW for offshore wind, with a compound installation growth rate of nearly 30% predicted from 2025 to 2030 [2] - In the first half of 2025, domestic wind power construction accelerated, with onshore wind power adding 48.90GW and offshore wind power adding 2.49GW, representing year-on-year growth rates of 95.52% and 200.00%, respectively [2] Group 3 - The trend towards larger wind turbines and the application of new technologies are expected to open up development opportunities for the entire wind power industry, benefiting component manufacturers due to increased demand from offshore construction and overseas market expansion [3] - The wind power sector experienced a significant surge, with stocks such as Hengtong Optic-Electric and Far East Smarter Energy reaching their daily limit [3]
9月5日涨停分析:大金重工——斩获百亿欧洲订单,海风龙头崛起
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-07 11:36
Core Viewpoint - The company, Dajin Heavy Industry, is experiencing significant growth in the offshore wind power equipment sector, particularly in the European market, despite a decline in overall revenue. The strategic shift towards high-value export products has led to increased profitability and a strong market position [3][6][9]. Group 1: Company Overview - Dajin Heavy Industry, established in 2003 and headquartered in Beijing, is the first publicly listed company in China focused on wind power equipment manufacturing [3]. - The company specializes in a wide range of wind power equipment, including conventional land towers, large-diameter segmented land towers, low-wind flexible high towers, offshore towers, and related components [3]. - Dajin Heavy Industry has become a strategic supplier for many high-quality clients in the industry, positioning itself among the top tier of global wind power equipment manufacturers [3]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's total revenue was 3.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.61%, while net profit attributable to shareholders reached 474 million yuan, an increase of 11.46% [6]. - The decline in revenue is attributed to a strategic reduction in domestic business with lower profitability and higher payment risks, while benefiting from high-margin export products [6]. - The company's overseas revenue in 2024 was 1.733 billion yuan, accounting for nearly 50% of the wind power equipment segment's revenue, with gross margin at 29.83%, up 6.59 percentage points year-on-year [6]. Group 3: Market Position and Future Outlook - In the first quarter of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1.141 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 146.36%, and a net profit of 231 million yuan, up 335.91% [6]. - By mid-2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.841 billion yuan and a net profit of 547 million yuan, representing year-on-year increases of 109.48% and 214.32%, respectively [6]. - The company has secured nearly 3 billion yuan in contracts for heavy deck transport ship construction, marking a breakthrough in global logistics and further reducing export costs [9]. - Analysts project that the company's net profit will reach 1.05 billion yuan, 1.37 billion yuan, and 1.76 billion yuan in 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, indicating a strong growth trajectory [9].
中国风电出口开启全方位比拼
Zhong Guo Jing Ji Wang· 2025-08-04 00:19
Core Insights - Chinese wind power companies are significantly expanding their international presence, with a total of 400 megawatts of new overseas wind power orders secured in the first half of the year, including large-scale projects in Egypt and the Philippines [1] - The export growth rate of Chinese wind power equipment exceeded 20% in the first half of the year, with double-digit growth in exports to Belt and Road countries and an 11.8% increase in exports of components to BRICS countries [1] Group 1: Competitive Advantages - China produces over two-thirds of the world's wind power equipment, with major components like generators and blades accounting for 60% to 80% of global production [2] - The mature and efficient domestic supply chain allows Chinese wind turbines to maintain reliability while offering significant price competitiveness [2] - The extensive land area of China enables wind power applications across diverse environments, allowing for customized solutions tailored to specific customer needs [2] Group 2: Project Examples - The Red Sea Wind Energy Company's Suez Bay Project in Egypt features the GW165-6.0MW turbine, designed to withstand extreme conditions, making it the largest single wind power project in Africa [3] - The project has a total installed capacity of 500 megawatts, showcasing China's ability to adapt technology to local environmental challenges [3] Group 3: Global Demand Growth - Wind power is increasingly recognized as a key component of sustainable development, with Bloomberg New Energy Finance predicting a 17% increase in global wind power capacity by 2025 [4] - The Asia-Pacific region is expected to account for 62% of global wind power capacity additions by 2035, with significant growth anticipated in Southeast and Central Asia [4] Group 4: Strategic Recommendations - Chinese wind power companies are advised to enhance technical exchanges with international partners and focus on product quality to avoid price wars [5] - Emphasis on technological innovation and local market adaptation is crucial for establishing a sustainable global service system [5] - Strengthening local operations and building international capabilities across the entire supply chain will be essential for successful global integration [5]
金风科技20250715
2025-07-16 00:55
从 2024 年到 2025 年,国内风电设备出海市场持续受到高度关注。许多上市 公司披露的海外订单实现了 100%到 300%的高增速,整体行业数据也显示出 显著增长。2024 年的出口总量和新增订单量均增长超过 60%。从全球新增装 机角度看,中国市场占比约 60%至 70%,其中陆上风电占国内市场的 90%以 上。因此,国内需求波动对海外市场有重要影响。 2024 年,全国风电招标总 量为 164 吉瓦,同比增长 90%,创历史新高。过去三年(2022-2024 年), 全国陆上风电招标保持高景气度,为今年(2025 年)的抢装奠定基础。海上 风电方面,自 2022 年以来,每年的招标体量平均超过 10 吉瓦,但实际交付 逐年下滑,去年(2024 年)降至仅 4 吉瓦。然而,根据各省十四五规划,目 前有 20 至 25 吉瓦的项目将在两年内开工建设。今年(2025 年)和明年 (2026 年)预计分别有 10 吉瓦和 15-16 吉瓦的装机。 从核准角度看,自国 家双碳战略推动以来,陆上风电新增核准持续创新高。今年前五个月新增核准 接近 46 吉瓦,同比增长 133%。这使得对明年的陆上风电装机量预期较 ...
金风科技签约阿曼最大风电项目 中国企业风电出海加速“扬帆”
Zheng Quan Ri Bao Wang· 2025-05-21 13:18
Group 1 - Goldwind Technology has signed its first wind power project in Oman, the Riyah-1&2 project, with a total capacity of 234 MW, marking it as the largest wind power development project in Oman [1] - The global wind energy market is experiencing rapid growth, with GWEC forecasting a record 117 GW of new installed capacity in 2024, driven by strong demand and supportive policies [2][3] - Chinese wind turbine manufacturers are expected to add approximately 5.4 GW of new overseas installed capacity in 2024, reflecting the increasing international presence of Chinese companies [1][2] Group 2 - China's wind power exports have surged, with a 71.90% year-on-year increase in 2024, and a further 43.2% increase in the first quarter of 2025 [4] - Leading companies like Envision Energy and Goldwind Technology are significantly expanding their overseas orders, with Envision securing 10 GW of overseas orders in 2024 [4] - The cost advantages of Chinese wind turbines are expected to enhance their competitiveness in international markets, with a projected export volume of 11 GW by 2025 [5]
大金重工(002487):业绩超预期,海风出海盈利攀升
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-04-28 01:15
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6] Core Views - The company has exceeded performance expectations with significant growth in offshore wind product profitability, driven by an increase in export orders and a strategic shift towards international markets [1][2][3] - The company is positioned as a leader in the offshore wind tower and pile market, with forecasts indicating substantial profit growth in the coming years [4] Financial Performance Summary - For the year 2024, the company reported revenue of 3.78 billion, a decrease of 12.6% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 474 million, an increase of 11.5% year-on-year [1] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.141 billion, a remarkable increase of 146.36% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders reached 231 million, up 335.91% year-on-year [1] - The gross margin for 2024 was 29.83%, an increase of 6.4 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 12.54%, up 2.7 percentage points year-on-year [1] Export and Market Strategy - The company has seen a significant increase in the proportion of revenue from export marine engineering products, with a gross margin of 38.5% for the year, reflecting a strategic pivot away from less profitable domestic operations [2] - The establishment of three major export marine engineering bases has been completed, targeting the global marine engineering market [2] New Energy Sector Growth - The new energy generation business reported revenue of 220 million, a growth of 64.0% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 78.5%, primarily driven by the profitability of a 250MW wind power project [3] - The company has plans for further development in the new energy sector, including a 1GW wind power project in Hebei [3] Future Profitability Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 898 million, 1.181 billion, and 1.514 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 19.5, 14.8, and 11.6 [4][5]
风电出海加速扬帆,今年前2月相关企业注册量增长7.28%
Qi Cha Cha· 2025-03-25 06:51
Group 1 - The registration of wind power-related companies in China has increased by 7.28% in the first two months of this year, with a total of 0.63 million companies registered so far [1][2] - The total number of existing wind power-related companies in China is 116,600, with a projected annual registration of 33,300 companies in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.82% [1][2] - The peak registration year in the last decade was 2021, with 14,700 companies registered, marking a significant year-on-year increase of 77.84% [2] Group 2 - Over 60% of the wind power-related companies have been established within the last three years, with the majority (35.47%) being 1-3 years old [3] - Companies established within one year account for 27.52%, while those over ten years old represent only 7.46% [3] Group 3 - The largest proportion of wind power-related companies belongs to the scientific research and technical services sector, accounting for 32.48% [4] - The wholesale and retail sector follows with 26.52%, while the electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply sector accounts for 12.45% [4] - Additionally, these companies are also present in various other sectors, including construction and manufacturing [4]