证券研究报告 | 行业策略 gszqdatemark 2026 01 11 年 月 日 风电设备 风电 2026 年行业策略：国内需求稳升，出海加速，国内外盈利共振 国内风电需求稳中有升，海风静待规划落地。如何看待中长期风电需求，主要从 短期、中长期两个维度判断。短期，陆上风电/海上风电招标在 2025 年前三季度 分别实现 97/5GW 招标，2025 年 1-11 月分别实现 124/8.6GW 核准，2026-2027 年风电需求有望持续高增。中长期：风电出力曲线与负荷需求匹配度较高、市场化 竞争电价波动性小，"十五五"风电在新能源装机占比有望从 25%提升至 50%， 实现单年装机达 130GW。国务院总理李强作政府工作报告，首次明确提出"发展 海上风电"，我们预计十五五风电增量重点向海发展，海风规划有望加速。 欧洲海风有望持续加速，浮式风电进入 0-1 周期。欧洲政策加大海风扶持力度， 多国家推动海上风电计划总规模近 100GW，大部分拍卖均采用 CfDs 模式，丹麦、 荷兰也有为重启 CfDs。欧盟降息已达 200 基点，利好海风建设。欧洲 2025 年拍 卖量高企有望超 19.5GW，FID 已 ...

Core Viewpoint - The wind power sector is entering a new cycle of multiple prosperity starting in 2026, driven by domestic policies and global demand growth, particularly in offshore wind energy [1][2]. Group 1: Domestic Wind Power Installation Forecast - It is projected that from 2025 to 2027, the annual new installation capacity for onshore wind in China will be approximately 100-105 GW, while offshore wind capacity will increase from 9.0 GW to 15.0 GW, with a CAGR of about 29.1% [1]. - The global wind power demand is expected to grow, with a projected CAGR of about 8.8% for new installations from 2025 to 2030, with China and Europe contributing 73% of the new capacity [1]. Group 2: Pricing and Profitability Trends - Since Q4 2024, domestic onshore wind bidding prices have significantly rebounded, expected to maintain in the range of 1600-1700 RMB/kW (excluding towers) in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10% [2]. - The industry is entering a profitability uptrend characterized by dual recovery in pricing and structure, alongside a decrease in expense ratios [2]. Group 3: New Growth Trends - The trend of large-scale wind turbine production is slowing, which is expected to reduce risks and provide long-term benefits to cost structures [3]. - There is a significant increase in overseas wind power demand, transitioning from merely exporting products to exporting capabilities and production capacity [3]. - The inclusion of renewable energy non-electric consumption in national assessments is accelerating the layout of hydrogen and ammonia production by wind turbine manufacturers [3].

近日，来自近30个国家和地区的能源领域各界代表齐聚广东汕头，参加第二十二届世界风能大会，共议 风电前沿技术，解锁全球"潜力市场"机遇，探寻中国风电出海、全球产业合作的新路径；发布《全球风 能合作汕头宣言》，启动中国风电产业出海综合服务港。 汕头近年来乘风而起，在一片荒滩上建起汕头国际风电创新港，推动中国风电迈向全球价值链高端。 资源得天独厚 在汕头南澳岛山林中，数百台风机迎着海风转动，南澳±160千伏多端柔性直流输电工程源源不断地输 送着清洁能源。 早在1988年，南澳岛就投运了风力发电示范场项目。今天，众多风电企业在汕头追风逐电。金风科技股 份有限公司便在这里发挥"链主"作用，吸引上下游企业落户汕头，走向世界。 "中国风电快速发展，众多海外零部件企业落户中国，中国企业也积极'走出去'融入全球市场。"金风科 技股份有限公司董事长武钢说，"目前金风业务已拓展到48个国家，中国造的风机深受海外客户喜爱。" "这是一个世界级产业集群的中国实践。"中国可再生能源学会风能专业委员会秘书长秦海岩在世界风能 大会上解析汕头样本时说，想在全球大规模开发风电仍面临一系列挑战，包括产业链供应链不能支撑发 展目标、各国发展水平严重 ...

2025年，受风电主机厂商自律以及下游业主端评标规则变化等因素影响，风电主机环节中标价格体现出 持续回升态势。比地招标网数据显示，2025年1—10月陆上风机平均中标单价为1618元/kW，同比增长 6.86%；陆上风机（含塔筒）平均中标单价为2096元/kW，同比增长9.78%。 与此同时，2025年也是中国风电企业出海大年，整机厂商海外订单创出新高，零部件企业也拿下海外市 场大单。开源证券数据显示，2025年前三季度国内7家整机厂商合计拿下海外19.28GW订单，同比增长 187.8%，出海加速。 低中标价达到1439元/千瓦。整体来看，2025年上半年各机型的中标价格已经全部高于其最低成本价。 不过由于风机业务从招标到交付有一年左右的时间差，目前风电企业风机业务未能完全好转。华龙证券 统计显示，2025年前三季度，国内风电产业风机环节实现营业收入1116.50亿元，同比增长35.81%；实 现归母净利润29.92亿元，同比下降2.73%；实现毛利率11.79%，净利率2.68%。 业内认为，风机中标价格于2024年见底，2025年回升，预计2025年交付价格见底，2026年回升。因此 2026年风机制造 ...

Core Insights - Shandong Port Yantai Port Company has focused on the logistics demand for wind power equipment exports, leading to significant growth in this sector [2] Group 1: Performance Metrics - From January to November, Yantai Port achieved a 20.2% year-on-year increase in the handling volume of wind power equipment and general cargo [2] - The export destinations include 15 countries and regions, such as Chile, Brazil, the UK, France, and Germany [2] Group 2: Market Expansion - A new shipping route to Chile has been established, resulting in an export volume of 150,000 cubic meters, marking a breakthrough from non-existence to a significant presence [2] - The South American market has become a primary direction for Yantai Port's wind power equipment exports [2]

Core Insights - The Asia-Pacific region has become the largest center for wind turbine assembly and key component production globally, with China holding a dominant position in offshore wind power capacity [1][3][5] - The global wind power supply chain is primarily concentrated in three regions: Asia-Pacific, Europe, and the Americas, with China leading in offshore wind capacity [3][5] - By 2030, most countries will face capacity bottlenecks in wind power supply, but China is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with wind power exports increasing at a compound annual growth rate of over 50% [5][21] Industry Overview - As of September 2025, China's cumulative offshore wind power grid-connected capacity reached 44.61 million kilowatts, maintaining the top position globally for five consecutive years [8] - China produces over two-thirds of the world's wind turbines, with key components like gearboxes and blades accounting for over 70% of global production [9] - Offshore wind power is a significant growth point for the wind power industry, with coastal regions accelerating the development of industrial chains [10] Regional Development - Coastal provinces such as Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Fujian have established or are developing specialized offshore wind power industrial parks, covering the entire industry chain from manufacturing to operation [11] - The Shantou International Wind Power Innovation Port has created the world's first integrated offshore wind power equipment manufacturing park, significantly reducing land use and increasing production efficiency [13][14] Global Expansion - Chinese wind power companies are rapidly expanding internationally, with operations in 48 countries across six continents, establishing service centers and production bases in Brazil, Germany, and Spain [23][30] - In 2024, China exported 624,000 kilowatts of wind power capacity to Brazil, with total exports exceeding 900,000 kilowatts, showcasing the growing demand for Chinese wind power technology [27] - Countries are increasingly recognizing the advanced technology of Chinese wind power, leading to significant procurement agreements [25][29]

Core Viewpoint - The 22nd World Wind Energy Conference and the 3rd Shantou International Wind Power Technology Innovation Conference highlight the shift in China's wind power industry from "single-point breakthroughs" to "ecological collaboration" in global expansion [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Overview - China's wind power industry has developed a complete competitive advantage across the entire supply chain, providing 70% of global wind power equipment and reducing global wind power costs by over 60% [2]. - The global wind power market is expected to see significant growth, with new installations projected to reach 117 GW in 2024, marking an 11% year-on-year increase [2]. - The global wind power market is entering a critical phase of "quality over quantity," with increasing demand for offshore and high-altitude wind power applications [3]. Group 2: Company Developments - A-share wind power companies are actively pursuing overseas expansion, with companies like Yunda Energy achieving significant success in securing projects in the Middle East and North Africa [4]. - Major component manufacturers are collaborating with turbine manufacturers to enhance their competitive edge in international markets [4]. - Daikin Heavy Industries has signed a contract for a European offshore wind farm project worth approximately 1.339 billion RMB, with delivery expected in 2027 [5]. Group 3: Challenges in International Expansion - Chinese wind power companies face challenges in local integration, including adapting to local investment regulations, foreign exchange controls, and environmental standards [6]. - Companies must also navigate geopolitical risks, currency fluctuations, and the need for product customization based on varying climate conditions and grid characteristics [6].

Core Viewpoint - The globalization narrative of China's wind power industry is shifting from "capacity output" to "ecological rooting," emphasizing the need for both hard technology and soft local ecological adaptation for successful overseas expansion [1][2]. Group 1: Technological and Ecological Adaptation - The wind power industry is capital, technology, and compliance-intensive, where success now relies on more than just turbine performance, but also on local regulations, ESG standards, and supply chain resilience [1][2]. - SANY Heavy Energy's approach exemplifies the integration of technology and ecological empowerment, showcasing a model for high-end manufacturing in China [1][2]. Group 2: Manufacturing and Innovation - SANY Heavy Energy's South Kou Industrial Park features advanced automation with over 75% automation rate, significantly improving production efficiency by nearly three times compared to traditional methods [6][9]. - The company has developed the world's largest six-degree-of-freedom wind turbine test platform, which is fully domestically sourced and capable of simulating complex wind field conditions [7][8]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The wind power industry is entering a new cycle, with a target of 1.2 million kilowatts of annual capacity addition during the 14th Five-Year Plan, indicating a phase of accelerated growth [11][12]. - SANY Heavy Energy has secured over 2 GW of overseas orders in the past year, with expectations for significant year-on-year growth in overall order value [14][16]. Group 4: Globalization Strategy - Since 2022, SANY Heavy Energy has established subsidiaries and localized marketing teams in key global markets, including Europe, South Asia, and Africa, to enhance its international presence [12][16]. - The company aims to implement a "core hub + regional node" supply chain structure to balance technology control and local responsiveness, which aligns with global best practices [15][16].

Core Insights - The global energy transition and the competitiveness of China's wind power industry have made "going global" a central theme for development [1] - The shift from product export to localized operations signifies an evolution in the globalization strategy of Chinese wind power companies [2] Group 1: Trends in Globalization - The pace of Chinese wind power companies "going global" has accelerated, with competition now focusing on technology, service, and localization rather than just product pricing [2] - By the third quarter of 2025, domestic companies secured a total of 23.043 GW of international wind turbine orders, with export orders doubling year-on-year in the first half of the year [2] - Companies are moving from a simple product supply model to a "full-chain cooperation" model, which includes equipment supply, technology licensing, and localized production [2] Group 2: Localization Practices - The complex environment of overseas markets demands higher localization capabilities from companies, as different regions have distinct policies, market demands, and cultural backgrounds [3] - Electric Power Equipment (688660.SH) has established overseas operations in regions like the Middle East and East Asia, targeting high-growth markets while diversifying regional risks [3] - A partnership with Oman’s Mawarid Group includes not only equipment supply but also technology licensing and local factory design, exemplifying the shift from "selling equipment" to "providing comprehensive solutions" [3] Group 3: Value Reconstruction - The overseas market offers wind power companies opportunities beyond short-term order growth, including business model restructuring, brand value enhancement, and technological advancement [4] - Participation in various wind power projects allows companies to accumulate operational experience under extreme conditions, which can inform domestic product development [4] - The profitability potential of the overseas wind power market is becoming evident, with data indicating that the gross margin for overseas wind turbines is higher than that for domestic ones [4]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities highlights the optimistic outlook for the energy storage sector, predicting significant growth in lithium battery and material shipments and price adjustments due to unexpected increases in energy storage demand [1][4]. Group 1: Energy Storage - The global energy storage demand is expected to surge, driven by the economic advantages of energy storage solutions, leading to a new cycle in the lithium battery industry [2][4]. - Domestic energy storage installations are projected to reach 300 GWh next year, contributing to a total lithium battery demand exceeding 2700 GWh, with a year-on-year growth rate of over 30% [4][5]. - The report anticipates that by Q4 2026, capacity utilization rates for key materials such as 6F, LFP, separator, and copper foil will reach 106%, 96%, 98%, and 95% respectively, indicating potential tightness in supply [1][5]. Group 2: Lithium Batteries - The demand for lithium batteries is expected to grow significantly, with domestic energy storage installations projected to double by 2026 and global energy storage battery shipment demand reaching 943 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 68% [5]. - The overall global lithium battery demand is forecasted to reach 2716 GWh by 2026, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 32% [5]. - Material supply constraints are anticipated due to a slowdown in production expansion among industry players, with current capacity utilization rates exceeding 75% and expected to surpass 80% by mid-2026 [5]. Group 3: Power Equipment - The export market for power equipment is experiencing high demand, particularly in North America and the Middle East, with core companies seeing significant growth in their export businesses [7]. - Domestic high-voltage equipment orders are robust, supporting a strong performance outlook for the industry in 2025 and beyond [7]. Group 4: Wind Power - The wind power industry is showing signs of recovery, with a focus on overseas markets, particularly offshore wind, expected to see significant growth during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [8]. - The domestic wind power market is anticipated to improve, with a healthy recovery in pricing and profitability expected [8]. Group 5: Photovoltaics - The photovoltaic industry is undergoing a "de-involution" process, with improvements in profitability across most segments, particularly in the silicon material sector [9]. - Ongoing policies aimed at controlling production and sales in the silicon material sector are expected to lead to further industry consolidation [9]. Group 6: AIDC Power Distribution - The demand for AIDC (Artificial Intelligence Data Center) is experiencing a strong upward trend, with significant capital investments from major internet companies [10]. - The trend towards higher power density and the adoption of advanced power supply solutions, such as the 800V system, is driving innovation in the sector [10].